2019 Population Estimate U.S. Metropolitan Areas

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https://census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/pop-estimates-county-metro.html

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https://census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/pop-estimates-county-metro.html

[ABQalex]

Population estimates of the top 100 MSAs as of July 1, 2019:


1. New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA, 19,216,182

2. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA, 13,214,799

3. Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI, 9,458,539

4. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX, 7,573,136

5. Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX, 7,066,141

6. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV, 6,280,487

7. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL, 6,166,488

8. Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD, 6,102,434

9. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA, 6,020,364

10. Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, 4,948,203

11. Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH, 4,873,019

12. San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA, 4,731,803

13. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA, 4,650,631

14. Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI, 4,319,629

15. Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA, 3,979,845

16. Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI, 3,640,043

17. San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA, 3,338,330

18. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, 3,194,831

19. Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO, 2,967,239

20. St. Louis, MO-IL, 2,803,228

21. Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD, 2,800,053

22. Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC, 2,636,883

23. Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL, 2,608,147

24. San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX, 2,550,960

25. Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA, 2,492,412

26. Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA, 2,363,730

27. Pittsburgh, PA, 2,317,600

28. Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV, 2,266,715

29. Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX, 2,227,083

30. Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN, 2,221,208

31. Kansas City, MO-KS, 2,157,990

32. Columbus, OH, 2,122,271

33. Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN, 2,074,537

34. Cleveland-Elyria, OH, 2,048,449

35. San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA, 1,990,660

36. Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN, 1,934,317

37. Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC, 1,768,901

38. Providence-Warwick, RI-MA, 1,624,578

39. Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI, 1,575,179

40. Jacksonville, FL, 1,559,514

41. Oklahoma City, OK, 1,408,950

42. Raleigh-Cary, NC, 1,390,785

43. Memphis, TN-MS-AR, 1,346,045

44. Richmond, VA, 1,291,900

45. New Orleans-Metairie, LA, 1,270,530

46. Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN, 1,265,108

47. Salt Lake City, UT, 1,232,696

48. Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT, 1,204,877

49. Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY, 1,127,983

50. Birmingham-Hoover, AL, 1,090,435

51. Grand Rapids-Kentwood, MI, 1,077,370

52. Rochester, NY, 1,069,644

53. Tucson, AZ, 1,047,279

54. Fresno, CA, 999,101

55. Tulsa, OK, 998,626

56. Urban Honolulu, HI, 974,563

57. Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA, 949,442

58. Worcester, MA-CT, 947,404

59. Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT, 943,332

60. Greenville-Anderson, SC, 920,477

61. Albuquerque, NM, 918,018

62. Bakersfield, CA, 900,202

63. Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY, 880,381

64. Knoxville, TN, 869,046

65. McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX, 868,707

66. Baton Rouge, LA, 854,884

67. New Haven-Milford, CT, 854,757

68. Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA, 846,006

69. El Paso, TX, 844,124

70. Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ, 844,052

71. Columbia, SC, 838,433

72. North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL, 836,995

73. Dayton-Kettering, OH, 807,611

74. Charleston-North Charleston, SC, 802,122

75. Greensboro-High Point, NC, 771,851

76. Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL, 770,577

77. Stockton, CA, 762,148

78. Boise City, ID, 749,202

79. Colorado Springs, CO, 745,791

80. Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR, 742,384

81. Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL, 724,777

82. Akron, OH, 703,479

83. Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA, 699,292

84. Springfield, MA, 697,382

85. Ogden-Clearfield, UT, 683,864

86. Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY, 679,158

87. Winston-Salem, NC, 676,008

88. Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL, 668,365

89. Madison, WI, 664,865

90. Syracuse, NY, 648,593

91. Provo-Orem, UT, 648,252

92. Durham-Chapel Hill, NC, 644,367

93. Toledo, OH, 641,816

94. Wichita, KS, 640,218

95. Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC, 608,980

96. Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL, 601,942

97. Jackson, MS, 594,806

98. Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, 577,941

99. Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA, 568,521

100. Chattanooga, TN-GA, 565,194

[ABQalex]

Population estimates of the 101st-200th largest MSAs as of July 1, 2019:


101. Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA, 553,885

102. Modesto, CA, 550,660

103. Lansing-East Lansing, MI, 550,391

104. Lancaster, PA, 545,724

105. Portland-South Portland, ME, 538,500

106. Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA, 536,081

107. Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR, 534,904

108. Fayetteville, NC, 526,719

109. Lexington-Fayette, KY, 517,056

110. Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL, 502,629

111. Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC, 496,901

112. Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA, 494,336

113. Port St. Lucie, FL, 489,297

114. Lafayette, LA, 489,207

115. Reno, NV, 475,642

116. Huntsville, AL, 471,824

117. Springfield, MO, 470,300

118. Visalia, CA, 466,195

119. Asheville, NC, 462,680

120. Killeen-Temple, TX, 460,303

121. York-Hanover, PA, 449,058

122. Vallejo, CA, 447,643

123. Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA, 446,499

124. Salinas, CA, 434,061

125. Salem, OR, 433,903

126. Mobile, AL, 429,536

127. Corpus Christi, TX, 429,024

128. Brownsville-Harlingen, TX, 423,163

129. Reading, PA, 421,164

130. Gulfport-Biloxi, MS, 417,665

131. Manchester-Nashua, NH, 417,025

132. Salisbury, MD-DE, 415,726

133. Fort Wayne, IN, 413,263

134. Flint, MI, 405,813

135. Peoria, IL, 400,561

136. Canton-Massillon, OH, 397,520

137. Anchorage, AK, 396,317

138. Shreveport-Bossier City, LA, 394,706

139. Savannah, GA, 393,353

140. Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX, 392,563

141. Tallahassee, FL, 387,227

142. Naples-Marco Island, FL, 384,902

143. Eugene-Springfield, OR, 382,067

144. Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL, 379,172

145. Montgomery, AL, 373,290

146. Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC, 369,711

147. Ann Arbor, MI, 367,601

148. Trenton-Princeton, NJ, 367,430

149. Ocala, FL, 365,579

150. Fort Collins, CO, 356,899

151. Huntington-Ashland, WV-KY-OH, 355,873

152. Lincoln, NE, 336,374

153. Rockford, IL, 336,116

154. Gainesville, FL, 329,128

155. Boulder, CO, 326,196

156. Greeley, CO, 324,492

157. South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI, 323,613

158. Green Bay, WI, 322,906

159. Lubbock, TX, 322,257

160. Columbus, GA-AL, 321,048

161. Spartanburg, SC, 319,785

162. Evansville, IN-KY, 315,086

163. Roanoke, VA, 313,222

164. Clarksville, TN-KY, 307,820

165. Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA, 307,202

166. Kennewick-Richland, WA, 299,612

167. Wilmington, NC, 297,533

168. Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA, 290,536

169. Utica-Rome, NY, 289,990

170. Duluth, MN-WI, 288,732

171. Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV, 288,104

172. Longview, TX, 286,657

173. Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL, 284,809

174. San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA, 283,111

175. Merced, CA, 277,680

176. Laredo, TX, 276,652

177. Waco, TX, 273,920

178. Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA, 273,213

179. Cedar Rapids, IA, 273,032

180. Bremerton-Silverdale-Port Orchard, WA, 271,473

181. Erie, PA, 269,728

182. Sioux Falls, SD, 268,232

183. Norwich-New London, CT, 265,206

184. Kalamazoo-Portage, MI, 265,066

185. Amarillo, TX, 265,053

186. College Station-Bryan, TX, 264,728

187. Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ, 263,670

188. Lynchburg, VA, 263,566

189. Charleston, WV, 257,074

190. Tuscaloosa, AL, 252,047

191. Yakima, WA, 250,873

192. Fort Smith, AR-OK, 250,368

193. Fargo, ND-MN, 246,145

194. Binghamton, NY, 238,691

195. Appleton, WI, 237,974

196. Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ, 235,099

197. Lafayette-West Lafayette, IN, 233,002

198. Tyler, TX, 232,751

199. Topeka, KS, 231,969

200. Macon-Bibb County, GA, 229,996

[ABQalex]

Population estimates of the 201st-300th largest MSAs as of July 1, 2019:


201. Bellingham, WA, 229,247

202. Champaign-Urbana, IL, 226,033

203. Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL, 223,234

204. Hilton Head Island-Bluffton, SC, 222,195

205. Rochester, MN, 221,921

206. Medford, OR, 220,944

207. Burlington-South Burlington, VT, 220,411

208. Chico, CA, 219,186

209. Charlottesville, VA, 218,615

210. Las Cruces, NM, 218,195

211. Yuma, AZ, 213,787

212. Athens-Clarke County, GA, 213,750

213. Barnstable Town, MA, 212,990

214. Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ, 212,181

215. Lake Charles, LA, 210,409

216. Columbia, MO, 208,173

217. Houma-Thibodaux, LA, 208,075

218. Springfield, IL, 206,868

219. Elkhart-Goshen, IN, 206,341

220. Florence, SC, 204,911

221. Gainesville, GA, 204,441

222. Johnson City, TN, 203,649

223. St. Cloud, MN, 201,964

224. Monroe, LA, 200,261

225. Jacksonville, NC, 197,938

226. Bend, OR, 197,692

227. Racine, WI, 196,311

228. Saginaw, MI, 190,539

229. Punta Gorda, FL, 188,910

230. Terre Haute, IN, 186,367

231. Warner Robins, GA, 185,409

232. Midland, TX, 182,603

233. Billings, MT, 181,667

234. El Centro, CA, 181,215

235. Dover, DE, 180,786

236. Greenville, NC, 180,742

237. Redding, CA, 180,080

238. Joplin, MO, 179,564

239. Bowling Green, KY, 179,240

240. Jackson, TN, 178,644

241. Kingston, NY, 177,573

242. St. George, UT, 177,556

243. Yuba City, CA, 175,639

244. Panama City, FL, 174,705

245. Muskegon, MI, 173,566

246. Iowa City, IA, 173,105

247. Abilene, TX, 172,060

248. Oshkosh-Neenah, WI, 171,907

249. Bloomington, IL, 171,517

250. East Stroudsburg, PA, 170,271

251. Burlington, NC, 169,509

252. Eau Claire, WI, 169,304

253. Bloomington, IN, 169,230

254. Hattiesburg, MS, 168,849

255. Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA, 168,522

256. Pueblo, CO, 168,424

257. Blacksburg-Christiansburg, VA, 167,531

258. Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI, 167,417

259. Odessa, TX, 166,223

260. Coeur d'Alene, ID, 165,697

261. Auburn-Opelika, AL, 164,542

262. Janesville-Beloit, WI, 163,354

263. Wausau-Weston, WI, 163,285

264. State College, PA, 162,385

265. Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL, 159,923

266. Jackson, MI, 158,510

267. Madera, CA, 157,327

268. Chambersburg-Waynesboro, PA, 155,027

269. Grand Junction, CO, 154,210

270. Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY, 153,928

271. Niles, MI, 153,401

272. Hanford-Corcoran, CA, 152,940

273. Decatur, AL, 152,603

274. Bangor, ME, 152,148

275. Alexandria, LA, 152,037

276. Idaho Falls, ID, 151,530

277. Wichita Falls, TX, 151,254

278. Jefferson City, MO, 151,235

279. Monroe, MI, 150,500

280. Santa Fe, NM, 150,358

281. Homosassa Springs, FL, 149,657

282. Vineland-Bridgeton, NJ, 149,527

283. Dothan, AL, 149,358

284. Texarkana, TX-AR, 148,761

285. Florence-Muscle Shoals, AL, 147,970

286. Valdosta, GA, 147,292

287. Albany, GA, 146,726

288. Rocky Mount, NC, 145,770

289. Dalton, GA, 144,724

290. Sioux City, IA-NE-SD, 144,701

291. Flagstaff, AZ, 143,476

292. Morristown, TN, 142,749

293. Logan, UT-ID, 142,165

294. Rapid City, SD, 142,107

295. Lebanon, PA, 141,793

296. Winchester, VA-WV, 140,566

297. Sumter, SC, 140,466

298. Morgantown, WV, 139,044

299. Wheeling, WV-OH, 138,948

300. Napa, CA, 137,744

[ABQalex]

Population estimates of the 301st-384th largest MSAs as of July 1, 2019:


301. La Crosse-Onalaska, WI-MN, 136,616

302. Sherman-Denison, TX, 136,212

303. Carbondale-Marion, IL, 135,764

304. Harrisonburg, VA, 134,964

305. Hammond, LA, 134,758

306. Battle Creek, MI, 134,159

307. Springfield, OH, 134,083

308. Jonesboro, AR, 133,860

309. The Villages, FL, 132,420

310. Manhattan, KS, 130,285

311. Johnstown, PA, 130,192

312. Albany-Lebanon, OR, 129,749

313. Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA, 129,205

314. Bismarck, ND, 128,949

315. Lawton, OK, 126,415

316. Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ, 125,922

317. St. Joseph, MO-KS, 125,223

318. Glens Falls, NY, 125,148

319. Pittsfield, MA, 124,944

320. Cleveland, TN, 124,942

321. New Bern, NC, 124,284

322. Farmington, NM, 123,958

323. Ames, IA, 123,351

324. Goldsboro, NC, 123,131

325. Staunton, VA, 123,120

326. Lawrence, KS, 122,259

327. San Angelo, TX, 122,027

328. Altoona, PA, 121,829

329. Mansfield, OH, 121,154

330. Wenatchee, WA, 120,629

331. Missoula, MT, 119,600

332. Owensboro, KY, 119,440

333. Brunswick, GA, 118,779

334. Weirton-Steubenville, WV-OH, 116,074

335. Beckley, WV, 115,767

336. Sheboygan, WI, 115,340

337. Muncie, IN, 114,135

338. Anniston-Oxford, AL, 113,605

339. California-Lexington Park, MD, 113,510

340. Williamsport, PA, 113,299

341. Twin Falls, ID, 111,290

342. Longview, WA, 110,593

343. Michigan City-La Porte, IN, 109,888

344. Kankakee, IL, 109,862

345. Watertown-Fort Drum, NY, 109,834

346. Lewiston-Auburn, ME, 108,277

347. Sebring-Avon Park, FL, 106,221

348. Decatur, IL, 104,009

349. Fond du Lac, WI, 103,403

350. Bay City, MI, 103,126

351. Gettysburg, PA, 103,009

352. Lima, OH, 102,351

353. Gadsden, AL, 102,268

354. Ithaca, NY, 102,180

355. Mankato, MN, 101,927

356. Grand Forks, ND-MN, 100,815

357. Victoria, TX, 99,742

358. Cheyenne, WY, 99,500

359. Hot Springs, AR, 99,386

360. Rome, GA, 98,498

361. Dubuque, IA, 97,311

362. Cumberland, MD-WV, 97,284

363. Fairbanks, AK, 96,849

364. Cape Girardeau, MO-IL, 96,765

365. Pocatello, ID, 95,489

366. Corvallis, OR, 93,053

367. Ocean City, NJ, 92,039

368. Parkersburg-Vienna, WV, 89,339

369. Pine Bluff, AR, 87,804

370. Grants Pass, OR, 87,487

371. Columbus, IN, 83,779

372. Elmira, NY, 83,456

373. Bloomsburg-Berwick, PA, 83,194

374. Midland, MI, 83,156

375. Kokomo, IN, 82,544

376. Great Falls, MT, 81,366

377. Hinesville, GA, 80,994

378. Casper, WY, 79,858

379. Danville, IL, 75,758

380. Grand Island, NE, 75,553

381. Lewiston, ID-WA, 62,990

382. Enid, OK, 61,056

383. Walla Walla, WA, 60,760

384. Carson City, NV, 55,916

[pj3000]

MSA is a stubborn relic of the past.

It's long past time to retire it as a metric of statistical significance.

[Acajack]

I guess I am out of touch but I am a bit shocked to see the top 3 metros declining in population. Well, maybe not Chicago, but NYC and LA???

[iheartthed]

I guess I am out of touch but I am a bit shocked to see the top 3 metros declining in population. Well, maybe not Chicago, but NYC and LA???

For NYC, it's nuanced. The core areas have more people than ever, but the outer areas are losing population. If it weren't for NYC and the inner counties in New Jersey, the regional population losses would be quite massive.

[Obadno]

I guess I am out of touch but I am a bit shocked to see the top 3 metros declining in population. Well, maybe not Chicago, but NYC and LA???

In the last 4 years or so the prices in these cities have really increased and its pushing people out.

[Obadno]

MSA is a stubborn relic of the past.

It's long past time to retire it as a metric of statistical significance.

For what? CSA is an even crazier based on daily comutes between MSA's

MSA's themselves are based on counties which I think is absurd especially out west with our massive counties

You have Podunk towns like Barstow, Blythe, Brawly and Calexico included in the costal city MSA's in So cal.

You have truck stop towns like Gila Bend over an hour from Phoenix in its MSA' because it happens to be on the far edge of a massive county

[Acajack]

For NYC, it's nuanced. The core areas have more people than ever, but the outer areas are losing population. If it weren't for NYC and the inner counties in New Jersey, the regional population losses would be quite massive.

I would surmise that the biggest losses are probably in the in-between zones or secondary ring of suburbs. Areas mostly developed from the 50s to the 70s.

The outermost ring (usually exurban in character) seems to be growing in most any urban area anywhere.

And of course as you say the innermost areas have undergone a renaissance.

[BG918]

You have truck stop towns like Gila Bend over an hour from Phoenix in its MSA' because it happens to be on the far edge of a massive county

It's definitely more pronounced in the western states due to the large county size. In Colorado, even within the Denver MSA, you have huge counties that have urban portions adjacent to Denver but also little towns way out on the eastern Plains next to the Wyoming and Nebraska state lines (like Weld County). These towns are a world apart from Denver but are included in the MSA.

[iheartthed]

I would surmise that the biggest losses are probably in the in-between zones or secondary ring of suburbs. Areas mostly developed from the 50s to the 70s.

The outermost ring (usually exurban in character) seems to be growing in most any urban area anywhere.

And of course as you say the innermost areas have undergone a renaissance.

I think it's mixed. On the New Jersey side, the inner ring is doing well.* On Long Island, Suffolk County is more exurban mixed with semi-rural, and it's not doing that well. North of NYC, Westchester County is a mesh of inner-ring suburban and ex-urban, and it's still showing healthy growth.

*Except for Monmouth County. Not sure what's going on there. Maybe the decline is Hurricane Sandy related?

[Obadno]

I think it's mixed. On the New Jersey side, the inner ring is doing well.* On Long Island, Suffolk County is more exurban mixed with semi-rural, and it's not doing that well. North of NYC, Westchester County is a mesh of inner-ring suburban and ex-urban, and it's still showing healthy growth.

*Except for Monmouth County. Not sure what's going on there. Maybe the decline is Hurricane Sandy related?

Its also important to keep in mind density.

In exurban environments it does not take much for them to be growing at a steady clip in the statistics. And you can see cities that are shrinking but you wouldn't know it based on the cranes.

For example Buckeye last year was the fastest growing town. Bunch of articles about it It added like 5k residents or something. Its a tiny farm community on the outermost fringe of the phoenix metro. IF you go there its mostly nothing but cotton, but over the last few years a few fields have been turned into classic master-planned communities. They got a new strip mall and a couple of fast food joints.

Realistically it isnt a lot of growth but relative to a few years ago its massive.

[Acajack]

I think it's mixed. On the New Jersey side, the inner ring is doing well.* On Long Island, Suffolk County is more exurban mixed with semi-rural, and it's not doing that well. North of NYC, Westchester County is a mesh of inner-ring suburban and ex-urban, and it's still showing healthy growth.

*Except for Monmouth County. Not sure what's going on there. Maybe the decline is Hurricane Sandy related?

My observation is that in most metros areas that look like this:

https://www.google.ca/maps/place/Honeydale+Mall/@43.6309629,-79.5468683,3a,75y,214.84h,86.42t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sgIxHXTataaO5hpvjXygwFw!2e0!7i16384!8i8192!4m5!3m4!1s0x882b37ee50efd239:0xa93647957dd4713e!8m2!3d43.6294549!4d-79.5489727

Don't seem to do well unless there is a considerable influx of immigrants. In Canada where large immigrant waves only go to a small number of cities, areas such as these would be in major decline if not for them. These post-war areas tend to have decent locations, reasonably spacious houses and affordable prices (relative to the rest of the metro).

In the U.S. where the number of large and largish metros competing for immigrants is much higher, these areas tend to struggle more.

(Note that this picture is taken from Toronto, which has few areas that are truly struggling. The crappiness you see here is transitional. Even today it might be that that area doesn't look like that anymore.)

[sopas ej]

For what? CSA is an even crazier based on daily comutes between MSA's

MSA's themselves are based on counties which I think is absurd especially out west with our massive counties

You have Podunk towns like Barstow, Blythe, Brawly and Calexico included in the costal city MSA's in So cal.



Not true. LA's MSA is LA and Orange Counties (Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim MSA). Barstow and Blythe would be part of the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario MSA (the Inland Empire), which is San Bernardino and Riverside Counties, which aren't coastal. Same with Brawley and Calexico, which are both in Imperial County, which is its own MSA (El Centro MSA). San Diego County, which is coastal, is its own MSA (San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad MSA). San Diego's CSA is San Diego-Tijuana, I believe, and doesn't include Imperial County.

Now if you're talking about LA's CSA, then yes, it would include all of LA, Orange, Ventura, San Bernardino and Riverside Counties, and would lump in those podunk little towns with coastal areas.

[JManc]

For what? CSA is an even crazier based on daily comutes between MSA's

MSA's themselves are based on counties which I think is absurd especially out west with our massive counties

You have Podunk towns like Barstow, Blythe, Brawly and Calexico included in the costal city MSA's in So cal.

You have truck stop towns like Gila Bend over an hour from Phoenix in its MSA' because it happens to be on the far edge of a massive county

Agreed. CSA's are a bad metric. I lived just outside of Boston's MSA in NH but was included in its CSA but no way was it realistic or feasible to commute to it work or a regular basis and only went on a weekend every so often. NYC's CSA stretches into 'Deliverance' country way out in PA. LA's stretches from Ventura to the NV border.

[iheartthed]

Agreed. CSA's are a bad metric. I lived just outside of Boston's MSA in NH but was included in its CSA but no way was it realistic or feasible to commute to it work or a regular basis and only went on a weekend every so often. NYC's CSA stretches into 'Deliverance' country way out in PA. LA's stretches from Ventura to the NV border.

But a lot of people do commute from PA to Manhattan daily.

[JManc]

But a lot of people do commute from PA to Manhattan daily.

They are masochists. I've done that stretch several times. It might be different if there's transit involved but still a long haul. They did from where I lived in NH as well into Boston but quality of life is diminished when you're spending that long commuting. I knew people back home in Utica who commuted into Penn Station a few times a week. There are those who are super commuters..but no thanks.

[iheartthed]

They are masochists. I've done that stretch several times. It might be different if there's transit involved but still a long haul. They did from where I lived in NH as well into Boston but quality of life is diminished when you're spending that long commuting. I knew people back home in Utica who commuted into Penn Station a few times a week. There are those who are super commuters..but no thanks.

Yeah, I'd never do it but one of my good friends did it for a couple of years.

[MonkeyRonin]

MSA is a stubborn relic of the past.

It's long past time to retire it as a metric of statistical significance.


They make a lot more sense to me than CSAs, at the very least.

(Aside from a couple weird ones like San Francisco-San Jose or Los Angeles-Riverside being split up into separate metros)

[KevinFromTexas]

Also, don't forget to take your 2020 census, if you haven't already. I just did ours since we got it in the mail recently. You can do it all online at the link below. It took me less than 5 minutes.

https://my2020census.gov/

[JManc]

Yeah, I'd never do it but one of my good friends did it for a couple of years.

I almost had to do it; Austin to Houston. And still may have to since Houston's economy is on the brink between the virus and teetering oil prices.

[dubu]

oregon is comming up in the world, the 5 cities here added up is 3,727,018. thats like seattles population 3,979,845. most people are like its all forest here.

[Obadno]

Not true.

Now if you're talking about LA's CSA, then yes, it would include all of LA, Orange, Ventura, San Bernardino and Riverside Counties, and would lump in those podunk little towns with coastal areas.

You got me on a technicality, congratulations you get a cookie. The point is the MSA and CSA are based on counties but thats absurd in western states due to massive counties that dwarf whole states back east.

[Obadno]

They make a lot more sense to me than CSAs, at the very least.

(Aside from a couple weird ones like San Francisco-San Jose or Los Angeles-Riverside being split up into separate metros)

Pj300 is mad his town isnt growing as fast of towns he subjectively views as inferior

[Obadno]

Also I would like to critisize the scale of this map

-2500 to 5000+ ?????

This really gives almost no information

https://census.gov/content/census/en/library/visualizations/2020/comm/numeric-pop-change-county/jcr:content/map.detailitem.950.high.jpg/1585188444662.jpg

[liat91]

But a lot of people do commute from PA to Manhattan daily.

It is what it is. I met a couple of people who commute from Florham Park and Fairfield, NJ to Wilkes Barre, PA. They told me there are quite a few people making that trek. Heard of White Plains to Old Lyme, CT and San Jose to Carmel as well.

I think CSA’s may not go far enough. Places like Bakersfield wouldn’t even be growing with giant adjacent metros, spilling over.

[C.]

I would surmise that the biggest losses are probably in the in-between zones or secondary ring of suburbs. Areas mostly developed from the 50s to the 70s.

The outermost ring (usually exurban in character) seems to be growing in most any urban area anywhere.

And of course as you say the innermost areas have undergone a renaissance.

This is factually incorrect for the NYC metro area.

[Sam Hill]

It's definitely more pronounced in the western states due to the large county size. In Colorado, even within the Denver MSA, you have huge counties that have urban portions adjacent to Denver but also little towns way out on the eastern Plains next to the Wyoming and Nebraska state lines (like Weld County). These towns are a world apart from Denver but are included in the MSA.

Yeah but those rural areas have almost no population. In the mean time, Boulder is NOT included in Denver's MSA - nor are many of Denver's bonafide suburbs (Louisville, Lafayette, Superior) because they happen to be in Boulder County. Metro Denver's actual population is somewhere between the MSA and CSA. Probably around 3.2 million.

The problem with MSA's is they split certain metropolitan areas into pieces based upon commuting patterns. The problem with CSA's is they combine distinctly separate metropolitan areas based upon commuting patterns. The problem with them both is they split everything up by county - which is totally arbitrary and doesn't reflect reality.

[RumbleFish]

(Aside from a couple weird ones like San Francisco-San Jose or Los Angeles-Riverside being split up into separate metros)

Splitting up the Bay area has always annoyed me. It is clearly one metro area and should be at least be in the top 5 or 6 metros. Maybe even as high as number 4.

Personally whether looking at 100's of aerial photographs of these cities or visiting, the list never seems to be exactly right with the exception of the top 3.

[chris08876]

Hopefully the 2020 Census resolves some of those NY Metro figures. NYC is seeing such a loss. :(

Elusive residents need to fill it out as well. I wish they would make it mandatory for all to contribute in the census. NY always gets under counted and I'm not buying its latest 2019 estimate either.

[chris08876]

Population estimates of the top 100 MSAs as of July 1, 2019:


4. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX, 7,573,136

5. Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX, 7,066,141


[...]




Incredible figures. Although you guys down in Texas must be feeling that traffic pain compared to 5 years ago. Glad to see great figures for Dallas. :cheers:

[ssiguy]

I would surmise that the biggest losses are probably in the in-between zones or secondary ring of suburbs. Areas mostly developed from the 50s to the 70s.

The outermost ring (usually exurban in character) seems to be growing in most any urban area anywhere.

And of course as you say the innermost areas have undergone a renaissance.

Agreed, What was once known in urban planning circles as "The Donut" has become "The Dartboard"...……...rising inner city populations surrounded by declining post-war suburbs surrounded by booming new outer suburbs/exurbs. It's a common pattern now. Even fast growing cities are experiencing population decline in post-war suburbs.

In cities like NY & LA, it's not that people are "fleeing" in great numbers but rather due to relatively modest growth levels, the boom in the exurbs and downtown populations are simply not enough to offset the decline in the post-war suburbs.

[Crawford]

In cities like NY & LA, it's not that people are "fleeing" in great numbers but rather due to relatively modest growth levels, the boom in the exurbs and downtown populations are simply not enough to offset the decline in the post-war suburbs.

NY's exurbs have been stagnant for at least 20 years. They generally don't allow new housing, family sizes are shrinking, and the limited newer construction is increasingly for weekenders, so their populations are dropping. Exurban school districts already have a demographic crisis, which will worsen.

[Acajack]

NY's exurbs have been stagnant for at least 20 years. They generally don't allow new housing, family sizes are shrinking, and the limited newer construction is increasingly for weekenders, so their populations are dropping. Exurban school districts already have a demographic crisis, which will worsen.

You sorta replied to your own point, though. By virtue of their zoning and layout/structure, these areas can't really grow much to begin with.

Being stagnant or slightly declining generally means they're doing fine as around the biggest cities, they tend be maxed out or built it and opportunities to redevelop with more density are very limited.

They're in a kind of sweet spot in that lots of younger empty nest retirees will choose to live there as they can access the city within an hour (generally) when they want to, but they don't have to make the daily commuter grind five days a week.

Really rich people who can pick and choose when they go into the city also like these places.

It's not at all the same as the decline of many inner suburban ring areas with lower end 50s-60s-70s housing sitting next to wide boulevards with crappy Price Chopper, Ames and Burlington Coat Factory stores surrounded by acres of cracked and potholed pavement and rusty chain-link fencing.

[C.]

You sorta replied to your own point, though. By virtue of their zoning and layout/structure, these areas can't really grow much to begin with.

Being stagnant or slightly declining generally means they're doing fine as around the biggest cities, they tend be maxed out or built it and opportunities to redevelop with more density are very limited.

They're in a kind of sweet spot in that lots of younger empty nest retirees will choose to live there as they can access the city within an hour (generally) when they want to, but they don't have to make the daily commuter grind five days a week.

Really rich people who can pick and choose when they go into the city also like these places.

It's not at all the same as the decline of many inner suburban ring areas with lower end 50s-60s-70s housing sitting next to wide boulevards with crappy Price Chopper, Ames and Burlington Coat Factory stores surrounded by acres of cracked and potholed pavement and rusty chain-link fencing.

You really don't understand the NYC metro area, do you? Nassau County, areas north of NYC, and the New Jersey side of the metro area all have vastly different demographics and growth trends. Most of the counties in the metro area with a stagnate and declining population also have an increasing poverty rate.

[Crawford]

You sorta replied to your own point, though. By virtue of their zoning and layout/structure, these areas can't really grow much to begin with.

Being stagnant or slightly declining generally means they're doing fine as around the biggest cities, they tend be maxed out or built it and opportunities to redevelop with more density are very limited.

They're in a kind of sweet spot in that lots of younger empty nest retirees will choose to live there as they can access the city within an hour (generally) when they want to, but they don't have to make the daily commuter grind five days a week.

Really rich people who can pick and choose when they go into the city also like these places.

It's not at all the same as the decline of many inner suburban ring areas with lower end 50s-60s-70s housing sitting next to wide boulevards with crappy Price Chopper, Ames and Burlington Coat Factory stores surrounded by acres of cracked and potholed pavement and rusty chain-link fencing.

The NYC area doesn't follow this pattern. The exurban areas have the worst population/economic trends. The inner suburban ring is faring much better than the outer fringe. Westchester is doing better than Fairfield, which is doing better than the inland CT counties, Nassau is doing better than Suffolk, Hudson/Bergen/Essex/Union are faring better than the outer Jersey counties, etc.

There are some metros in the U.S. that follow your pattern. Detroit and Cleveland definitely follow this pattern.

[Acajack]

Counties are often fairly arbitrary definitions anyway.

These places are both in Nassau County:

https://www.google.com/maps/@40.7759441,-73.6036282,3a,75y,3.31h,76.34t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sJiZB9ZIeMyH3-0LOYb70qA!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

https://www.google.com/maps/@40.6236364,-73.7372381,3a,75y,149.66h,76.82t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1s55kcf_tWmSKL1w4sUPQXyQ!2e0!6s%2F%2Fgeo3.ggpht.com%2Fcbk%3Fpanoid%3D55kcf_tWmSKL1w4sUPQXyQ%26output%3Dthumbnail%26cb_client%3Dsearch.revgeo_and_fetch.gps%26thumb%3D2%26w%3D96%26h%3D64%26yaw%3D16.145618%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i16384!8i8192

Both likely have stagnant or declining populations. The poverty situation is quite different though.

[C.]

Counties are often fairly arbitrary definitions anyway.

These places are both in Nassau County:

https://www.google.com/maps/@40.7759441,-73.6036282,3a,75y,3.31h,76.34t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sJiZB9ZIeMyH3-0LOYb70qA!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

https://www.google.com/maps/@40.6236364,-73.7372381,3a,75y,149.66h,76.82t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1s55kcf_tWmSKL1w4sUPQXyQ!2e0!6s%2F%2Fgeo3.ggpht.com%2Fcbk%3Fpanoid%3D55kcf_tWmSKL1w4sUPQXyQ%26output%3Dthumbnail%26cb_client%3Dsearch.revgeo_and_fetch.gps%26thumb%3D2%26w%3D96%26h%3D64%26yaw%3D16.145618%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i16384!8i8192

Both likely have stagnant or declining populations. The poverty situation is quite different though.

Nassau County - the part of Long Island not in NYC, represents just 7 percent of the metro area's population. Suburban Nassau County is NOT representative of the other areas in the metro area! You just don't get it, do you.

[Crawford]

Counties are often fairly arbitrary definitions anyway.

These places are both in Nassau County:

https://www.google.com/maps/@40.7759441,-73.6036282,3a,75y,3.31h,76.34t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sJiZB9ZIeMyH3-0LOYb70qA!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

https://www.google.com/maps/@40.6236364,-73.7372381,3a,75y,149.66h,76.82t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1s55kcf_tWmSKL1w4sUPQXyQ!2e0!6s%2F%2Fgeo3.ggpht.com%2Fcbk%3Fpanoid%3D55kcf_tWmSKL1w4sUPQXyQ%26output%3Dthumbnail%26cb_client%3Dsearch.revgeo_and_fetch.gps%26thumb%3D2%26w%3D96%26h%3D64%26yaw%3D16.145618%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i16384!8i8192

Both likely have stagnant or declining populations. The poverty situation is quite different though.

Probably, yeah. But those are very atypical Nassau inner suburbs.

Old Westbury is very wealthy and almost semi-rural despite being an older suburb. Has multiacre zoning and nothing commercial. Probably zero chance of population growth in the coming decades. Its issues are more analagous to the exurban fringe, but with a better location somewhat insulating home values.

Lawrence is an older suburb that is now rapidly becoming an Orthodox Jewish enclave. It might have population growth. There may be some poverty, but mostly due to large household size. It's part of the Five Towns, which are culturally basically Queens. In fact most of the Orthodox schuls are over the Queens line.

[Crawford]

The Five Towns are so Orthodox these days, that basically nothing you see on this commercial street will be open on the Sabbath. And you'll have a hard time finding a non-Kosher restaurant. So not really typical, for Nassau or the metro area.

https://www.google.com/maps/@40.6212847,-73.7243738,3a,75y,60.52h,93.63t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sGavH5q1utvBDnZhymaAm4w!2e0!6s%2F%2Fgeo3.ggpht.com%2Fcbk%3Fpanoid%3DGavH5q1utvBDnZhymaAm4w%26output%3Dthumbnail%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26thumb%3D2%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D327.96167%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i16384!8i8192

[pj3000]

They make a lot more sense to me than CSAs, at the very least.

(Aside from a couple weird ones like San Francisco-San Jose or Los Angeles-Riverside being split up into separate metros)

I’m not advocating for CSAs. Both are completely inconsistent, arbitrary garbage.

I support taking a much more scientific approach, one that a population geographer would take. Looking at the core of population density in an area, determining density radii emanating out from that core, and being completely blind to political boundaries.

[Obadno]

Counties are often fairly arbitrary definitions anyway.

These places are both in Nassau County:



Both likely have stagnant or declining populations. The poverty situation is quite different though.

Lets look at some LA counties, and LA county is relatively medium in size (area) compared to other CA and western counties.

https://goo.gl/maps/nQoFFusv22MTr89d8

https://goo.gl/maps/UQnfXhsvwWH2b1wq6

https://goo.gl/maps/LDjbdKu6zPt5WuXY7

https://goo.gl/maps/LpNpARQdeRiQtnRu5

https://goo.gl/maps/GzMn6xfohUWHcvWd9

https://goo.gl/maps/gZUSDLUdbcBhBFXn7

Its sort of ridiculous

[Obadno]

I’m not advocating for CSAs. Both are completely inconsistent, arbitrary garbage.

I support taking a much more scientific approach, one that a population geographer would take. Looking at the core of population density in an area, determining density radii emanating out from that core, and being completely blind to political boundaries.

Ideally but as goofy as some of the County based measurements can be they do a relatively good job for the most part.

Even if you get more scientific the bay area is still going to be within a couple thousand of the current CSA count

[JManc]

Incredible figures. Although you guys down in Texas must be feeling that traffic pain compared to 5 years ago. Glad to see great figures for Dallas. :cheers:

Not only have Houston, DFW and Austin grown a lot, the road construction is unending so yeah, traffic is a horror fest.

[DCReid]

Not only have Houston, DFW and Austin grown a lot, the road construction is unending so yeah, traffic is a horror fest.
Why isn't San Antonio growing as fast - or is it?

[N90]

Why isn't San Antonio growing as fast - or is it?
SA was 10th in the US in 2019 growth with 38k. It’s growing pretty fast but gets lost in discussions about TX because DFW, HOU, and ATX all overshadow it.

[Nomad9]

SA was 10th in the US in 2019 growth with 38k. It’s growing pretty fast but gets lost in discussions about TX because DFW, HOU, and ATX all overshadow it.

Yep. Poor SA isn’t trendy like Austin or massive like DFW/Houston, so it gets overlooked.

Also, Delaware is such an outlier in the northeast/mid-Atlantic. The lower two counties are exploding because of (1) retirees—close to the beach with low taxes—and (2) to a lesser extent, commuters. Of course some commute into the Philly/Wilmington MSA, but from the lower counties it’s possible to super-commute into the DC/Baltimore area.

[JManc]

Why isn't San Antonio growing as fast - or is it?

It is and it and Austin are slowing growing into one another along i35. I just didn't feel like typing out San Antonio.

[SIGSEGV]

Yep. Poor SA isn’t trendy like Austin or massive like DFW/Houston, so it gets overlooked.

Also, Delaware is such an outlier in the northeast/mid-Atlantic. The lower two counties are exploding because of (1) retirees—close to the beach with low taxes—and (2) to a lesser extent, commuters. Of course some commute into the Philly/Wilmington MSA, but from the lower counties it’s possible to super-commute into the DC/Baltimore area.

The "Joe Biden" commute?

[Nomad9]

The "Joe Biden" commute?

Sort of. Biden did Wilmington to DC on Amtrak. These people in lower DE are doing sprawly new construction in a corn field by road to DC.

[Citylover94]

I think it would be interesting if the Census attempted to create an equivalent to New England City and Town Areas (NECTA) for the rest of the country. They are created the same way as the regular MSA designation except that they use towns and cities as the building blocks for the metro areas. They often have different borders and slightly different populations that make more sense because the unit used to make them. The difficulty in using this or other parts of the country is that unlike in New England where aside from the far northern parts of Maine and NH all of the land is contained in towns and cities; whereas, in other areas there are unincorporated areas of counties that would be included in the metro areas.
https://www2.census.gov/geo/maps/metroarea/us_wall/Feb2013/necta_0213_large.gif
The NECTA map from the census bureau from 2013. The lightest gray lines are town and city boundaries and the darker dotted grey lines are county boundaries. The grey shaded areas are urban areas.

[liat91]

The NYC area doesn't follow this pattern. The exurban areas have the worst population/economic trends. The inner suburban ring is faring much better than the outer fringe. Westchester is doing better than Fairfield, which is doing better than the inland CT counties, Nassau is doing better than Suffolk, Hudson/Bergen/Essex/Union are faring better than the outer Jersey counties, etc.

There are some metros in the U.S. that follow your pattern. Detroit and Cleveland definitely follow this pattern.

Not sure about doing better. Most of the population increase in the inner counties are immigrants, with a much smaller contingent of upper middle class people, though enough to bring in a lot of noticeable infrastructure improvements. Some wealthy immigrants are buying up condos in Jersey City as well, but also happening on a small scale.

The boom exurbs of NYC are in NEPA. The far outer burbs are very anti development or avoided, due to taxes etc. The middle burbs is where most of the wealth is; NJ wealth belt, Fairfield, CT, Outer Westchester, Princeton area, Suffolk LI Northshore and Northeast Monmouth county. There are a few extremely wealthy inner suburbs.

Outside of Texas, Carolinas, Nashville, Denver, Phoenix, Seattle, Orlando and Tampa metros everything is slowing down.

[Crawford]

The boom exurbs of NYC are in NEPA.

NE PA has declining population, and silly cheap home prices. It's exactly what I'm talking about. NYC's exurban fringe is stagnant at-best.

[IrishIllini]

TBH I'm surprised PA is growing. NYS, NJ, and CT are all flat and PA's economy is less robust than all of them.

Are any cities in the Midwest or Northeast pushing their urban fringe further into the hinterlands? Maybe Boston?

[Docere]

What are the "inner", "middle" and "outer" suburbs of NYC?

A strict inner could include southern Bergen, southern Westchester and the towns of Hampstead and North Hampstead?

[liat91]

NE PA has declining population, and silly cheap home prices. It's exactly what I'm talking about. NYC's exurban fringe is stagnant at-best.

Pike, Monroe, Northampton and Lehigh all grew between 2017-2018. It’s not a population explosion, but not one of them shrank. Compared to the NJ counties they border, which all shrank.

All other exurban areas shrank or had no growth with the exceptions of Ocean county, NJ and Orange County, NY. Both of which have large orthodox Jewish populations with high fertility/growth rates, without which, would have shrank.

So yes, NEPA is pretty much the only exurban growth area for NY, generally.

[JManc]

2021 Population Estimates of U.S. Metropolitan Areas could be a little higher....

The World Could Be Running Out of Condoms Because of Pandemic

The world’s biggest maker of condoms warned of a global shortage as supply falls by almost 50% while its stockpile is set to last for just another two months.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-28/the-world-could-be-running-out-of-condoms-because-of-pandemic

[UrbanRevival]

TBH I'm surprised PA is growing. NYS, NJ, and CT are all flat and PA's economy is less robust than all of them.

Are any cities in the Midwest or Northeast pushing their urban fringe further into the hinterlands? Maybe Boston?

Not sure where you got that idea. NJ, NY and CT have all been fairly slow-growth economically and over the past several years and are very much in-line with PA relative to job growth rates. CT has actually had near-zero growth.

In fact, as of the latest BLS numbers, PA and NJ are the top two Northeastern states for job growth rates: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htm

The five New England states outside of Mass. didn't even register statistically significant y-o-y changes. PA in particular, while certainly not in perfect shape, is arguably the most economically "balanced" and affordable of the Northeast states and actually one of most diverse economies among all states. That's demonstrated further by its relatively low domestic out-migration rates compared to many Northeastern/Midwestern states.

That it has maintained its slow-but-steady population growth compared to other states comes as little surprise.

[SIGSEGV]

2021 Population Estimates of U.S. Metropolitan Areas could be a little higher....



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-28/the-world-could-be-running-out-of-condoms-because-of-pandemic

On the other hand... random hookups must also be down right?

[Obadno]

On the other hand... random hookups must also be down right?

If you think people arent breaking lockdown to go on Tinder hook-ups you are crazy.


.....Or so a friend told me....:haha:

[Docere]

Not a fan of Wendell Cox/Demographia but would be interesting to see 2010s.

2000-2010:

Inner suburban +2.4%

Outer suburban +6.3%

https://www.newgeography.com/content/002157-the-accelerating-suburbanization-new-york

Inner = Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Middlesex, Nassau, Passaic, Union, Westchester

Outer = Hunterdon, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean, Pike, Putnam, Rockland, Somerest, Suffolk, Sussex

Pike grew 24% in that decade, Ocean also saw double digit growth.

[Docere]

Between 2000 and 2018, Pike fell by 2.5%. Ocean is still growing (4.4%) - it has a sizable Orthodox Jewish community in Lakewood.

ETA: Rockland - home to ultra-Orthodox communities - grew at a similar rate (4.5%).

[emathias]

They are masochists. I've done that stretch several times. It might be different if there's transit involved but still a long haul. They did from where I lived in NH as well into Boston but quality of life is diminished when you're spending that long commuting. I knew people back home in Utica who commuted into Penn Station a few times a week. There are those who are super commuters..but no thanks.

I think all the major metro areas have a certain population of super commuters. In my office, prior to switching to everyone working from home, at least one of the guys was commuting 2 hours each way every day. I've never had a commute in excess of an hour, and usually it's been 20 minutes or less by choice. I don't really understand the super commuters. Even when I had a commute that was 45-60 minutes each way, I was able to have a single seat commute so I could read or do work the whole way, or I'd be seated next to my significant other so we could talk the whole way.

If I couldn't do any of those things - if I had to drive alone or transfer several times, then a long commute would destroy my soul. My current commute is 20-25 minutes walking, or 10-15 minutes via bicycle. That's ideal.

[Crawford]

Between 2000 and 2018, Pike fell by 2.5%. Ocean is still growing (4.4%) - it has a sizable Orthodox Jewish community in Lakewood.

ETA: Rockland - home to ultra-Orthodox communities - grew at a similar rate (4.5%).

Right. Ocean and Rockland are growing outer counties, but only because of ultra-Orthodox. Rockland is the most Jewish county in the U.S. (by %). Lakewood, NJ is the biggest Jewish concentration in the U.S. outside of Brooklyn, and growing like crazy. Outside of those enclaves, Ocean and Rockland growth is at best flat, mirroring the other outer counties.

[IrishIllini]

Not sure where you got that idea. NJ, NY and CT have all been fairly slow-growth economically and over the past several years and are very much in-line with PA relative to job growth rates. CT has actually had near-zero growth.

In fact, as of the latest BLS numbers, PA and NJ are the top two Northeastern states for job growth rates: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htm

The five New England states outside of Mass. didn't even register statistically significant y-o-y changes. PA in particular, while certainly not in perfect shape, is arguably the most economically "balanced" and affordable of the Northeast states and actually one of most diverse economies among all states. That's demonstrated further by its relatively low domestic out-migration rates compared to many Northeastern/Midwestern states.

That it has maintained its slow-but-steady population growth compared to other states comes as little surprise.

Interesting. It seems everything I've read has suggested NYC has done very well over the past 10 years (which is what I meant when I said CT, NJ, and NY) and Philadelphia and Pittsburgh's economies haven't done as well, so I'm just surprised it's posting modest gains whereas the others are flat.

[Atlas]

The CSA for Salt Lake City makes more sense to me than splitting the region into three MSAs. It's pretty much one continuous, developed area from North Ogden to Spanish Fork at this point. Pretty good numbers:

Salt Lake-Ogden-Provo CSA.....
2010: 2,271,704.....
2019: 2,641,048.....
Increase: 369,344/16.3%

[PhilliesPhan]

TBH I'm surprised PA is growing. NYS, NJ, and CT are all flat and PA's economy is less robust than all of them.

Are any cities in the Midwest or Northeast pushing their urban fringe further into the hinterlands? Maybe Boston?

The Philadelphia area, along with much of southern and eastern PA, is doing the vast majority heavy lifting. Philadelphia has undergone a tremendous amount of change within the last decade, and metrics tend to point towards the conclusion that there's still room for population and economic growth in the region. We have long been a center of "Eds and Meds", and now we're poised to become a leader in the life sciences area. All PA counties within the Philadelphia MSA have shown growth, though Delaware County's growth has been anemic due to the fact that it is mostly built out. The Lehigh Valley has been doing well for a while, and the Poconos region benefits from its connection to NYC. As long as I-78, I-83, and the PA Turnpike (I-76) continue to exist, the Harrisburg area will continue to be a logistical hub uniquely situated to deliver goods to three of the largest markets in the country: NYC, Philly, and the Baltimore-DC area.

Pittsburgh has also undergone changes, but its metro area--not just the city proper--continues to bleed population. This is more so due to the higher median age of the area than its economic strength. I believe that the City of Pittsburgh will start growing again, but the region will continue to shed population.

Outside of the aforementioned areas, only Centre County has the potential for population growth due to the presence of Penn State-University Park. Otherwise, a good portion of the Commonwealth will continue to shed its population and economic stature over the coming years.

Interesting. It seems everything I've read has suggested NYC has done very well over the past 10 years (which is what I meant when I said CT, NJ, and NY) and Philadelphia and Pittsburgh's economies haven't done as well, so I'm just surprised it's posting modest gains whereas the others are flat.

Philadelphia was been leading job growth among metro areas in 2019:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/philadelphia-biggest-job-growth-glassdoor-report

[pj3000]

Pittsburgh has also undergone changes, but its metro area--not just the city proper--continues to bleed population. This is more so due to the higher median age of the area than its economic strength. I believe that the City of Pittsburgh will start growing again, but the region will continue to shed population.



It really all depends on what one considers the Pittsburgh "region" to be. What is technically considered to be the Pittsburgh MSA is such a vast area and highly disconnected due to the extreme topography. Because of this, it is incohesive and includes largely unrelated areas... areas that share very little practical connection to Pittsburgh. It's nothing like the case with Philadelphia MSA, which is obviously in a much more densely populated and connected part of the state. I think the Pittsburgh MSA has been overly generous in the extent of its boundaries.

The City of Pittsburgh population loss seems to be leveling off as older residents die, and the numbers of younger residents moving in cannot yet keep up with the demographic reality of having one of the oldest populations in the nation.

The leveling off situation is similar for Allegheny County, which is de facto "Pittsburgh", but ridiculously composed of 130 municipalities (the most in PA) surrounding the city proper.

The surrounding counties of Butler (to the north) and Washington (to the south) are very popular suburban locales... Butler and Washington both have seen significant new development in the past 2 decades, have both been growing in population, and are continuing to see major infrastructure development.

Meanwhile, Westmoreland and Fayette counties (to the east-southeast) are still declining. These counties are part of the long-declining Mon Valley and push far out into former coal country and into the Laurel Highlands (i.e., the ties to Pittsburgh are very tenuous and are becoming less and less relevant to the area). Similarly, Beaver County (to the NW) and Armstrong County (to the NE) continue to lose population to aging. While Beaver County maintains connection to Pittsburgh due to its concentration of population in the Ohio River valley (and its bordering of growth areas in Butler County), Armstrong is largely rural and stretches all the way north to I-80... it really has zero business being considered part of the Pittsburgh area, and it never has. It's difficult to even get there from Pittsburgh -- there is literally ONE state highway connecting Armstrong County to Pittsburgh. It would take you the same amount of time to get from the northern portions of Armstrong County to Pittsburgh as it would take to get from those same northern portions to Erie...

So... I think we're going to see what is the actual Pittsburgh region grow, while places that have functioned independently from Pittsburgh throughout their histories (Mon Valley, eastern Westmoreland and Fayette counties) will continue to decline, as they are remote, disconnected areas which only knew growth long ago due to the steel and coal industry. We're witnessing over the past few decades how they never really have been a part of the Pittsburgh area.

[isaidso]

The CSA for Salt Lake City makes more sense to me than splitting the region into three MSAs. It's pretty much one continuous, developed area from North Ogden to Spanish Fork at this point. Pretty good numbers:

It's one of the US metros that looks a ton bigger when one goes from MSA to CSA. Ogden to Provo, roughly 131 km, and 2.4 million people is preferable to the whole CSA though.

[JAYNYC]

It's one of the US metros that looks a ton bigger when one goes from MSA to CSA. Ogden to Provo, roughly 131 km, and 2.4 million people is preferable to the whole CSA though.

Its actual CSA is exactly 84% of the (85K sq./mi) state's population.

[Atlas]

Its actual CSA is exactly 84% of the (85K sq./mi) state's population.
And more than 90% of the people in the Salt Lake-Ogden-Provo CSA live in 4 smaller counties in the center of the CSA (Salt Lake, Utah, Davis, Weber).

[BG918]

Its actual CSA is exactly 84% of the (85K sq./mi) state's population.

Similar to how the linear Denver-Boulder-Greeley CSA is 62% of Colorado’s population. If you combine it with Colorado Springs and Pueblo, so basically all of the Front Range urban area, it would be 80% of the state’s population along the I-25 corridor.

[themaguffin]

Pittsburgh has also undergone changes, but its metro area--not just the city proper--continues to bleed population. This is more so due to the higher median age of the area than its economic strength. I believe that the City of Pittsburgh will start growing again, but the region will continue to shed population

Most metros can at least depend on natural change growth (more birth than deaths) and many places have robust international in-migration, even if domestic migration is minimal or negative.

Pittsburgh has had more deaths than births for a good 30 years.

Westmoreland county did lose in domestic migration in the last year, but the estimate is a insignificant 8 people. 8.

International in migration made up for it, but the county saw 1,500 more deaths than births.

1,500.

Guess what, the county's population is estimated to have declined by around 1,500 people in the last year estimate.

[pj3000]

Most metros can at least depend on natural change growth (more birth than deaths) and many places have robust international in-migration, even if domestic migration is minimal or negative.

Pittsburgh has had more deaths than births for a good 30 years.

Westmoreland county did lose in domestic migration in the last year, but the estimate is a insignificant 8 people. 8.

International in migration made up for it, but the county saw 1,500 more deaths than births.

1,500.

Guess what, the county's population is estimated to have declined by around 1,500 people in the last year estimate.

Well, there is also a good reason that the region has had more deaths than births for the past few decades... young people moved away and young people didn't move in. We're just finally now seeing that begin to change. But, people are having fewer kids these days, and there's still a hell of a lot of baby boomers around. I don't see the overall southwestern PA region growing significantly anytime soon.