Quote:
Originally Posted by Jets4Life
If fresh water became as rich a commodity as Oil, how long would it take for Winnipeg to surpass Calgary and Edmonton in population? How long would it take for Brandon to surpass 100,000 people. How long would a Northern Manitoba city become the boom town that Fort McMurray was for the past 20 years?
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Interesting to postulate for sure. A few thoughts:
First off, *if* it happens: there would need to be a worldwide change in terms of what fresh water will do for say the energy industry vs what oil currently does, and also one must presume nothing else takes over (no other alternative energy form takes over) or that the major energy corporations headquartered in AB/SK don't purchase all the small guys in MB and still essentially run the energy sector from Calgary/Edmonton....plus oil is used in so many major supply chain processes in the world beyond use for commercial cars, planes, boats etc... and again water would need to somehow replace it on that global level...it will still be in enough demand that the energy corporations in AB & SK should be comfortable for decades to come, even in times of economic downturn
If anything is going to happen on that scale, it won't be for a very long time (unlikely in our life times, but I suppose one should never say never)
Second, why does it matter to see Winnipeg surpass Edmonton and Calgary in population?
I don't think Winnipeg will ever surpass Calgary or Edmonton in population in any of our lifetimes...It is in some ways close; they are all mid sized Canadian cities, but in other ways it is far behind (for example the recent CMA estimates for Calgary put it at closer to 2x the size of Winnipeg, than it is to the current size of Winnipeg) and if anything the gulf will keep growing larger, not smaller.
Further, look at current or recent trends - According to statsCAN,
a relatively stable and growing Winnipeg CMA is losing people at a rate of -0.7% to interprovincial migration whereas Calgary and Edmonton are gaining CMA at +0.7% and +0.9% respectively despite their current historic troubled economies. Now, Calgary has been hit even harder since that study was done, but I don't see that changing on a larger scale for a prolonged period of time.
Winnipeg will continue to grow at a stable, healthy pace thanks to a diversified economy, and if anything is going to really give it some sort of "boom"like economy, I think it will be CentrePort....but even that will takes decades itself to become fully realized, and even then it won't be on oil-boom scale.
But lets say Calgary & Edmonton suddenly stop growing...CMA population estimates from 2015 were:
1,439,800 for Calgary
1,363,300 for Edmonton
793,400 for Winnipeg
I think Winnipeg is over 800k by now, for sure. Lets go with 800k for Winnipeg, 1.3 mil for Edmonton and 1.4 mil for Calgary. The city of Winnipeg shows about a 10k per year growth, give or take, for the Winnipeg CMA and pegs the population to be ~845k by 2020 (only a few years away). If we keep going with that rate, it means in 10 years, Winnipeg CMA would grow by 100k. So in 20 years, 200k. 30 years, 300k. Lets pretend Edmonton and Calgary stay completely stagnant at 1.3 and 1.4, it would take Winnipeg 40 years to hit 1.2 million CMA, 50 years to hit 1.3 million and 60 years to hit 1.4 million. Now this is under the assumption that Edmonton and Calgary don't grow & don't lose people under a hypothetical "water is the new oil" scenario, and that Winnipeg's growth is consistent at 10k per year and doesn't increase (who knows it could, and it will if growth rate stays consistent with population growth)
So given all of that, I don't think its gonna happen - at least not in our lifetimes. I will never say never because 100 years ago, people probably thought and said the same for Edmonton & Calgary which were tiny towns at the time Winnipeg was a booming city, and the third largest in Canada.
But what does it matter? Its cool to think about, but Winnipeg is a great size, it is already plenty big (though it would be nice if the airport was a bit bigger with more overseas connections) and it has an excellent arts scene...it shouldn't matter that its "smaller"...its already got the best NHL team there after all