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Originally Posted by Untitled
Just read through six months of comments (I haven't visited since May) and it's kinda stunning to see that there's been no news of significance.
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2) Shelbourne thinks this project is dead but fears that news of its demise would create a cascade of negative p.r., thus imperiling their business as a whole. Thus they want to keep it on life support long enough to shore up their business and/or reduce the negative impact of this project's death via the passage of time.
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I think Shelbourne knows that the original concept, a figment of an artificially cash-flush, once- or twice-a-century debt-driven boom, is as dead as the first pilgrim to taste turkey.
Eventually, however, the site will be developed as something different from the original vision. The site with entitlements, plans, geotechnical stuff, etc., is valuable. But at this stage in the cycle, it is still worth way less than the money that has been invested. I imagine he is playing a waiting game assuming that now is the market trough and that the longer he can hold out, the more likely it will be that he may be able to sell the site, plans, etc., at an amount closer to what was originally invested and maybe even be in a better position to collect on development fees, etc.
I'd assume lenders might feel the same now too: why dump the property in the worst real estate market in 80 years when you could cut your losses significantly by waiting a few more years. And US government policy seems to support the banks in not having to mark their mortgage holdings to market on their balance sheets.
In other words, the market is so bad, it could only get better - everyone involved gains by waiting things out and jockeying for a better position once some of the value starts returning in a few years.
I think that hole, and, unfortunately, Shelbourne, will be there for many years to come.