Quote:
Originally Posted by fimiak
The model at SPUR is not fully accurate, and not a final design. The post I was replying to was suggesting that the final design of the tower had changed after looking at the SPUR picture, but that picture has nothing more than artistic renditions of the new towers. The rendering here http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...ancisco-record is the most accurate, I believe.
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Hmmm, a couple things to point out.
1) @ 714,000 SF assuming 15.5 years term, 12 months free as article assumes, and $560M in base rent, that implies a base start rent of only $43psf, which is absurdly low.
2) Article quotes a "$ Billion" deal after improvements, however, not factoring in improvements, "billion dollar deal" implies a start rent of $76psf, which seems high for such a large lease on the bottom half of the building.
At the end of the day, $83psf is someone's backed into AVG term rent, implying a lower start and higher finish. Not factoring in free rent and only looking at asking, and assuming 3% ann growth, that is a $66psf start, which is basically MARKET these days.
The article also suggests this is the peak of current asking rents in SF and that the 2000 peak was $70psf. Neither is true.
2000 saw triple digits in some leases, and this past year a deal got done at $117. Not to mention 555 California, one of the most prestigious buildings in the financial district inked two comps this past year:
Supercell Takes ~30k sf top floor for $97/sf lease
Microsoft leases streetview floors 2 and 3 at 555 Cal (50k sf) for $62psf
Wish Takes top 3 floors at One Sansome (54k sf) for undisclosed rate
Needless to say, $83psf isn't a record breaker today, nor would it have been in 2000. The absolute size of the lease and the value of the lease due to that size are. And anything above $60psf start for a lease that big is only achieved either in NYC or SF, ever. So it is a big deal, but to imply some $83psf start is a little disingenuous at best, and nobody really has all the facts except for the brokerage community.
I view this lease by Salesforce similar to how I view the Coach lease (for the lower half) at Hudson Yards in NYC. The higher rents are yet to come. And you can believe that Salesforce is paying, effectively, a different rate for its different floors, blended of course. No doubt that asking for the top floor was triple digit. FOR SURE. But lower floors at streetview were probably $60-65psf. I'm sure remaining start rents for mid-tower and viewspace will start in the $70s and go dramatically up from there.