DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[SirLucasTheGreat]

With the G line bringing commuter rail service to Arvada and Wheat Ridge starting today, I hope that RTD does a better job marketing the MetroRide. There are many people who think that all of these lines that terminate at Union Station are not helpful if you work in the CBD, which is false.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by JB1530

The majority of downtown PDX is in an opportunity zone, which was an odd move given the progressive tenor of the City/State, but there you have it. In addition a ton of sites within that zone, on the west side of the river, are under control of one family - the Goodmans.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2...rtunity-zones/

Given that, and the massive post office redevelopment that Continuum is overseeing, watch this space.

That's a great article; thanks for the link. I used to love Bloomberg until they put up a Big Paywall and since I only used the site for quality stuff like this it made no sense (for me) and I moved on.

But this demonstrates to wong and others how Denver's parking lot 'families' can have a happy skyscraper ending.

I only recall a passing mention of opportunity zones with respect to Denver though.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by COtoOC

Yeah, I agree. I'm in Eastbridge and in a location where I can easily walk to King Soopers, the Stanley, a pool and the rec center, so I'm happy. I counted something like 19 local restaurants I can walk to.

In Northfield and the housing to the north of the shopping area, it's like they just gave up on any hint of urbanism. The houses are all 3 shades of beige and no grocery store anywhere close, other than Target.

Meh. When I go through Eastbridge I see the same housing colors by the same builders as what's up north, asides from the one's that have gone bankrupt. Most of the housing is five years old or less and still has the original paint job- it will change. The grocery store situation is the same factor as for why Eastbridge took 10 years to come to fruition- Target has a right of first refusal for any other grocer store north of I-70 until sometime after 2020. Northfield will change, it's just going to take time- probably another 5-10 years. I can walk (within 20 minutes) to a half dozen restaurants (I won't even try to compare on the local aspect), four dentists for some damn reason, two liquor stores (take that Eastbridge!), and I'm sure that more will open/change as businesses sense opportunity and look to make changes.

It seems like the Northfield shopping area is quite busy, so I'm kind of surprised they haven't built more retail there. I think one of the failures of it is having Bass Pro there. Bass Pro should have been out off I70 and Tower Rd. As a destination, it brings in people from the rural areas. So Northfield has attempted to cater to rural people, urban people of color, Yuppies and Granolas, liberals and conservatives. You can't please all of the people all of the time!

Northfield is absolutely a regional destination between Target, Bass, and Harkins and that's okay- but it's also demonstrative of the struggles that regional shopping centers are having. The middle retail that underpinned these centers is slipping away and they have to adjust. Hopefully QIC takes a long look at Northfield and makes some adjustment to the use mix.

[twister244]

https://www.denverpost.com/2019/04/2...nt-rents-rise/

I took a drive through RiNo yesterday on my way home from work, and noticed how much activity there is right now there. I almost feel like we had a dip in construction last year, but things appear to be picking back up now. Then again, this is my own anecdotal observation. With the GDP numbers from Friday, one can may hypothesize that this cycle may have a bit more steam to it before it ends.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by twister244

With the GDP numbers from Friday, one can may hypothesize that this cycle may have a bit more steam to it before it ends.

That surprise left everybody scratching their heads and nobody is able to adequately explain it. The biggest surprise came in inventory growth which added an unexpectedness 70 basis points to 1st quarter GDP. Subtract that out and you'd have 2.5% or close to what was expected.

Kudlow claims it was from auto production while Baumohl had this response:

“On the outside, it looks like a shiny muscle car,” wrote economist Bernard Baumohl of the Economic Outlook Group. “Lift the hood, however, and you see a fragile one cylinder engine.”

Source

Speaking of vehicles has everybody noticed the impressive redesign of front of cars, mostly the grill work? Fun stuff from LED lighting treatments too. I'm no longer a car buff but it's hard to miss all the new vehicles on the road and they do look snazzy.

I always assumed that all the negativity was overblown. My concern going forward would be escalating costs of labor (although good for personal income) that will be negated by rising price of crude oil and its many derivatives including gas prices but cause inflation.

With respect to Denver, it's in good shape by being not too hot, not too cold as confirmed by DenverPoke.

[TakeFive]

Speaking of the Missing Middle

Just a block south of walkable East Colfax


Image courtesy Koelbel Urban Homes

You'll have to hurry to snag one of these $800,000 to $900,000 homes though.


Prefer something a little less expensive? Maybe half as much as the above?
Not to worry and no hurry.

https://crej.com/news/infill-develop...z-seeks-buyer/

The four-bedroom, two-bathroom units, with about 1,425 square feet, are priced at about $450,000. While a year ago that would have been considered the sweet spot for buyers, the unsold inventory is growing rapidly.

Sales have been so slow that builder David Schwartz is considering a 'bulk sale' to a buyer that would presumably turn them into rentals.

Schwartz is in the early stages of looking at selling all of the for-sale infill townhomes he developed near Sloan’s Lake to one buyer.

Personally I think the 'missing middle' has been way over-hyped as a solution to anything. I do like the variety though. While I'm not fan of imposing wholesale zoning changes, I wonder if there isn't a way going forward to work with neighborhoods as to possible carve-out areas for middle units. People are typically much more amenable to making a positive decision, making a contribution if it's approached as a constructive benefit.

[BG918]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

I always assumed that all the negativity was overblown. My concern going forward would be escalating costs of labor (although good for personal income) that will be negated by rising price of crude oil and its many derivatives including gas prices but cause inflation.

With respect to Denver, it's in good shape by being not too hot, not too cold as confirmed by DenverPoke.

I'm watching the price of oil as that was one of the indicators last go-around. I know the economic dynamics are different this time but that would be concerning to me if oil started to suddenly rise thus pushing up gas prices even higher.

[Cirrus]

Townhouses are not the missing middle. Townhouses are single-family homes, still out on one extreme. They're slightly less extreme than a detached house, but they're not remotely close to the middle.

This is what the missing middle looks like. Building types that are inherently affordable. Those are brand new market rate units, in a desirable neighborhood of an expensive coastal city, for under $400,000 each (and they'd be a lot cheaper if there were a lot more of them).

Basically, think about the cheap walk-up apartments that are all over suburbia. Denver and every city has tons of them. How do you build that but in the city? That's the urban missing middle.

[jbssfelix]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

Meh. When I go through Eastbridge I see the same housing colors by the same builders as what's up north, asides from the one's that have gone bankrupt. Most of the housing is five years old or less and still has the original paint job- it will change. The grocery store situation is the same factor as for why Eastbridge took 10 years to come to fruition- Target has a right of first refusal for any other grocer store north of I-70 until sometime after 2020. Northfield will change, it's just going to take time- probably another 5-10 years. I can walk (within 20 minutes) to a half dozen restaurants (I won't even try to compare on the local aspect), four dentists for some damn reason, two liquor stores (take that Eastbridge!), and I'm sure that more will open/change as businesses sense opportunity and look to make changes.

Northfield is absolutely a regional destination between Target, Bass, and Harkins and that's okay- but it's also demonstrative of the struggles that regional shopping centers are having. The middle retail that underpinned these centers is slipping away and they have to adjust. Hopefully QIC takes a long look at Northfield and makes some adjustment to the use mix.

I currently live in the "lost-cause" Beeler Park neighborhood, and we're just as disappointed as the rest of you guys. While we knew that we were essentially living in the "suburbs of Stapleton", we at least had the expectation that our retail corner would be flagshipped by something greater than a Murphy gas station. We've been fighting pretty hard (it's ironically the same dev as Eastbridge) to get improvements, but despite that, it has pretty much sailed through the approval process.

But otherwise, I agree. I think the best change will come with time. As the multi-families get built out, and some of the vacant land along CPB gets built out, hopefully Northfield adjusts to fill in some of the parking lots and tweaking its retail model to move with the times.

[COtoOC]

Originally Posted by jbssfelix

I currently live in the "lost-cause" Beeler Park neighborhood, and we're just as disappointed as the rest of you guys. While we knew that we were essentially living in the "suburbs of Stapleton", we at least had the expectation that our retail corner would be flagshipped by something greater than a Murphy gas station. We've been fighting pretty hard (it's ironically the same dev as Eastbridge) to get improvements, but despite that, it has pretty much sailed through the approval process.

But otherwise, I agree. I think the best change will come with time. As the multi-families get built out, and some of the vacant land along CPB gets built out, hopefully Northfield adjusts to fill in some of the parking lots and tweaking its retail model to move with the times.

I've been in Eastridge for over 13 years now (one of the first to move in) and it took a long time for it to feel like an actual neighborhood. My guess is part of the problem up in Beeler Park is that it's so isolated. There just aren't any other houses nearby. Now that we have the Stanley, the town center, King Soopers and the rec center within a 5 min. walk of our house, and our trees are taller than our house, I'm quite satisfied with where we live. But when we first moved in, it was all dust, construction, no retail, and coyotes howling at night!

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by jbssfelix

I currently live in the "lost-cause" Beeler Park neighborhood, and we're just as disappointed as the rest of you guys. While we knew that we were essentially living in the "suburbs of Stapleton", we at least had the expectation that our retail corner would be flagshipped by something greater than a Murphy gas station. We've been fighting pretty hard (it's ironically the same dev as Eastbridge) to get improvements, but despite that, it has pretty much sailed through the approval process.

But otherwise, I agree. I think the best change will come with time. As the multi-families get built out, and some of the vacant land along CPB gets built out, hopefully Northfield adjusts to fill in some of the parking lots and tweaking its retail model to move with the times.

As a resident of Willow Park East, I celebrate the Beeler Park retail- I'm going to abuse the hell out of that Taco Bell as I hit that drive through.

Beeler Park retail could certainly be better- but it's also driven by what what the developer can secure from a retail standpoint. Seeing the amount of effort that the developer put into trying to secure some more than a gas station, a carwash, and a dentist was encouraging. But it's also incredibly disheartening that all they could get was a gas station, a carwash, and a dentist and how many retailers turned them down (Mad Greens are morons). Hell, the strip mall along North field, err the "town center" ended up with an expansion to the MCA on a prime corner because the alternative the developer was getting from the private market was a mattress store.

My hunch is that North Stapleton is ten years from getting some "cool" retail.

[jbssfelix]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

As a resident of Willow Park East, I celebrate the Beeler Park retail- I'm going to abuse the hell out of that Taco Bell as I hit that drive through.

Beeler Park retail could certainly be better- but it's also driven by what what the developer can secure from a retail standpoint. Seeing the amount of effort that the developer put into trying to secure some more than a gas station, a carwash, and a dentist was encouraging. But it's also incredibly disheartening that all they could get was a gas station, a carwash, and a dentist and how many retailers turned them down (Mad Greens are morons). Hell, the strip mall along North field, err the "town center" ended up with an expansion to the MCA on a prime corner because the alternative the developer was getting from the private market was a mattress store.

My hunch is that North Stapleton is ten years from getting some "cool" retail.

Good points all around. I think my biggest worry at this point is that the new daycare and splash pad will be surrounded by car-centric retail, creating a conflict point between kids running around and cars flying in off 56th. Might need to throw down some tactical urbanism on the obnoxiously wide Beeler St entry once retail construction starts to wrap up.

[Agent Orange]

Originally Posted by Cirrus

Townhouses are not the missing middle. Townhouses are single-family homes, still out on one extreme. They're slightly less extreme than a detached house, but they're not remotely close to the middle.

This is what the missing middle looks like. Building types that are inherently affordable. Those are brand new market rate units, in a desirable neighborhood of an expensive coastal city, for under $400,000 each (and they'd be a lot cheaper if there were a lot more of them).

Basically, think about the cheap walk-up apartments that are all over suburbia. Denver and every city has tons of them. How do you build that but in the city? That's the urban missing middle.

This is so encouraging to hear a planner say. People seem to be missing the full spectrum of missing middle. The conversation here in Denver seems to be focused on ADU's and duplexes, and it feels like pulling teeth to get people comfortable with that. But it seems clear to me that true affordable/attainable housing will have to come in the form of walk up buildings with no parking. And we need them all over the place. Even the YIMBY folks aren't really advocating for that, we're aiming low IMO.

The incredible transformation of the Northside (Highlands/Jeff Park) has mostly been luxury duplexes and slot homes. When the zoning seems to only allow 3-4 bedroom units priced at 800k+, shouldn't that raise some concerns? It's the same thing in City Park West, Five Points, etc. Neighborhoods like those and Lower Highland are perfect places to see 1950s/60s Cap Hill style walk up buildings. But instead we're building ostentatious slot homes that only two-attorney households can afford, or else we're seeing enormous, block sized luxury apartment buildings in a handful of commercial/industrial corridors.

Besides zoning challenges, it also seems that parking requirements/preferences are a big part of why the 12 unit walk up isn't all that feasible. The Portland building you linked to is something I think I'll share with my councilman. I noticed a few buildings like this on my last visit there in the fall. I should have taken photos or noted the cross street.

(Cue TakeFive's weighing in that missing middle is a bunch of malarkey and us millennials should have the choice to either live in a 5,000 unit orgy-dorm in the treeless wasteland of Rino, or else cough up 1m for a single family home).

[bulldurhamer]

Originally Posted by Agent Orange

This is so encouraging to hear a planner say. People seem to be missing the full spectrum of missing middle. The conversation here in Denver seems to be focused on ADU's and duplexes, and it feels like pulling teeth to get people comfortable with that. But it seems clear to me that true affordable/attainable housing will have to come in the form of walk up buildings with no parking. And we need them all over the place. Even the YIMBY folks aren't really advocating for that, we're aiming low IMO.

The incredible transformation of the Northside (Highlands/Jeff Park) has mostly been luxury duplexes and slot homes. When the zoning seems to only allow 3-4 bedroom units priced at 800k+, shouldn't that raise some concerns? It's the same thing in City Park West, Five Points, etc. Neighborhoods like those and Lower Highland are perfect places to see 1950s/60s Cap Hill style walk up buildings. But instead we're building ostentatious slot homes that only two-attorney households can afford, or else we're seeing enormous, block sized luxury apartment buildings in a handful of commercial/industrial corridors.

Besides zoning challenges, it also seems that parking requirements/preferences are a big part of why the 12 unit walk up isn't all that feasible. The Portland building you linked to is something I think I'll share with my councilman. I noticed a few buildings like this on my last visit there in the fall. I should have taken photos or noted the cross street.

(Cue TakeFive's weighing in that missing middle is a bunch of malarkey and us millennials should have the choice to either live in a 5,000 unit orgy-dorm in the treeless wasteland of Rino, or else cough up 1m for a single family home).

or you could utilize the light rail and buy something you can afford in a location you can afford. the notion that everybody should just get to buy a place right downtown is lunacy, especially when the metro has transportation networks in place to move people to and from.

as for the condo in portland being referenced, we already have a bunch of that in five points. it's what the poor people used to live in and are now being refreshed so the "middle" can buy.

btw, gotta love the notion of a 1000 sq ft condo at $400K with a $130/m hoa as the 'middle'. that's the same thing but even more above the middle than what we're seeing flipped in cole and whittier. at some point the reporting about what's happening in cole and whittier will refeclt reality here, i'm determined.

examples:

https://www.redfin.com/CO/Denver/163...remarks-scroll
https://www.redfin.com/CO/Denver/172...85518#overview

[semiurban]

Originally Posted by Agent Orange

(Cue TakeFive's weighing in that missing middle is a bunch of malarkey and us millennials should have the choice to either live in a 5,000 unit orgy-dorm in the treeless wasteland of Rino, or else cough up 1m for a single family home).

I hope treating people in a neighborly way comes naturally to you

[The Dirt]

Originally Posted by Agent Orange

Even the YIMBY folks aren't really advocating for that, we're aiming low IMO.

That's because even when we aim low (ADUs, for example) we still have a huge fight on our hands. The rest of the people just sit on their hands and let the NIMBYs get away with it. Then you have the awe shucks TakeFivers that think townhouses are the missing middle, and the bulldurham shit stirrers that just wasn't too see the world burn.

[Agent Orange]

Originally Posted by semiurban

I hope treating people in a neighborly way comes naturally to you

Someone coined that phrase a few pages ago (before the Stapleton dad-chat) and I just couldn’t help myself.

Originally Posted by Cirrus

Friendly reminder that urban NIMBYism is the left’s version of border xenophobia, with all the same victim-blaming and “just follow the flaw” intellectual dishonesty.

Hear, hear! I’ve been saying the same thing. At a council hearing I spoke at I really thought about taking on the satirical persona of a NIMBY-xenophobe to drive this point home to both the council and the attendant NIMBYs. But realized it (was) 2018 and humor is dead; people would probably take it at face value.

Originally Posted by The Dirt

That's because even when we aim low (ADUs, for example) we still have a huge fight on our hands. The rest of the people just sit on their hands and let the NIMBYs get away with it. Then you have the awe shucks TakeFivers that think townhouses are the missing middle, and the bulldurham shit stirrers that just wasn't too see the world burn.

Yes you’re right. YIMBY has some winsome, politically savvy folks at the helm and I trust their strategy. But from my armchair, I can’t help but think if we call for more liberal reforms (e.g. 3 story walk-ups city wide) then maybe the politicians can do their song and dance and scale back to something more moderate (4 plexes city wide). But I hear ya.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by Agent Orange

(Cue TakeFive's weighing in that missing middle is a bunch of malarkey and us millennials should have the choice to either live in a 5,000 unit orgy-dorm in the treeless wasteland of Rino, or else cough up 1m for a single family home).

Balderdash

Looks like we disagree again but that's Okay again; that's what blogs are for.

I would suggest you mis-remember (understandable) my previous thoughts on the topic but stay tuned.

Originally Posted by bulldurhamer

or you could utilize the light rail and buy something you can afford in a location you can afford. the notion that everybody should just get to buy a place right downtown is lunacy, especially when the metro has transportation networks in place to move people to and from.

as for the condo in portland being referenced, we already have a bunch of that in five points. it's what the poor people used to live in and are now being refreshed so the "middle" can buy.

btw, gotta love the notion of a 1000 sq ft condo at $400K with a $130/m hoa as the 'middle'. that's the same thing but even more above the middle than what we're seeing flipped in cole and whittier. at some point the reporting about what's happening in cole and whittier will refeclt reality here, i'm determined.

examples:

https://www.redfin.com/CO/Denver/163...remarks-scroll
https://www.redfin.com/CO/Denver/172...85518#overview

You are hereby awarded the Post of the Month.

I had intended to express similar thoughts but you articulate it much better than I would have.

Originally Posted by semiurban

I hope treating people in a neighborly way comes naturally to you

So this is pile on day?

I attribute this to my good mid-western Christian upbringing. Ya know - treat others as you would want to be treated.

I suspect wisdom and perspective do come/change with age. I've always had an affinity for children, especially younger ones. Notice people's kids and I assure you that you don't have to be white to have that melt your heart. I likely have the added advantage that as a Senior, I'm not one of those immigrant-hating MAGA hat wearing Trump acolytes. There are plenty of those down here though. This slice of me is still decidedly liberal.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by Cirrus

Townhouses are not the missing middle. Townhouses are single-family homes, still out on one extreme. They're slightly less extreme than a detached house, but they're not remotely close to the middle.

This is what the missing middle looks like. Building types that are inherently affordable. Those are brand new market rate units, in a desirable neighborhood of an expensive coastal city, for under $400,000 each (and they'd be a lot cheaper if there were a lot more of them).

Basically, think about the cheap walk-up apartments that are all over suburbia. Denver and every city has tons of them. How do you build that but in the city? That's the urban missing middle.

This is one example where I get mildly paranoid that I'm losing my mind (a bit). But if I can still be lucid enough to irritate in my 80's then I'll be happy.

I do remember our extended discussion of the missing middle. It obviously wasn't front of mind but what I did was to conflate earlier discussions around more desirable density when row houses were given as an example. But I suspect I wasn't clear that row house/townhomes did NOT qualify. I promise to remember this for at least 6 months. For whatever density they do add I do like the look and the variety.

I also specifically mentioned Curtis Park/West City Park/Uptown as being areas where I thought the missing middle could work fine. In my Google Drive-thru these neighborhoods (as a reminder) I noted there's already a mish-mash of uses and density. I also described many miles of suggested areas for up-zoning. The specific photo/example in Portland is in a similar mixed mash neighborhood; there's three 15-story towers right across the street in fact.

bulldurhamer reminds us that that this has already been happening and also points out that in close-in neighborhoods where developers will build for the demand that the result more likely than not is not of an affordable variety. It seems that Sloan Lake is seen as less desirable and there's room for this style over there; Sunnyside has tons of potential too; parts of West Wash Park.

While that rendering in Portland looks fine I'd cry if all of Denver's historical housing supply ended up looking like that.

Another potential example is what Holland is building in Baker where they were limited to three stories.

[Stonemans_rowJ]

Originally Posted by The Dirt

That's because even when we aim low (ADUs, for example) we still have a huge fight on our hands. The rest of the people just sit on their hands and let the NIMBYs get away with it. Then you have the awe shucks TakeFivers that think townhouses are the missing middle, and the bulldurham shit stirrers that just wasn't too see the world burn.

I just don't see how ADU's are viable economically except for people who have more money than sense and want something besides their Tesla to brag about.