Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport (YOW/CYOW)

[fanofYOW]

As per their social media posts, looks like Porter's hangar opening ceremony is today.

Edit: Here's the PR: https://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...intenance-Base

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by mxg308

Looking forward to my Rouge flights to YQB on Wednesday mornings at 12:45am and my return flight from YQB Sunday mornings at 12:30am this upcoming winter! Jokes aside I assume these are repositioning flights and maybe AC gets lucky and gets a few revenue passengers.

That's cool. May as well try and sell a few seats on what's essentially a repo flight...but good luck doing so with a $388 one-way fare. Delayed departures aside, a 0045 departure must be earliest in the morning YOW's ever had for a scheduled departure.

The YOW-YQB leg might actually carry a few pax as connections will be possible with decent or very good connection times from YYZ, YTZ, YHZ, EWR, IAD & ORD. There's also some 8-14 hr connections if someone going from like YWG wants to spend the day in Ottawa before continuing to YQB.

In the other direction, it's the equivalent of westbound redeye connections.

While browsing for connections for these unique flights, I didn't realize that the AC346 YVR-YOW will still be a redeye this winter. I don't think YOW's ever had a winter season redeye before.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

As per their social media posts, looks like Porter's hangar opening ceremony is today.

Edit: Here's the PR: https://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...intenance-Base

When I drove by Saturday evening, both sets of doors were open and there was an E95 in each one.

[MountainView]

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

As per their social media posts, looks like Porter's hangar opening ceremony is today.

Edit: Here's the PR: https://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...intenance-Base

“Porter currently has 33 Embraer E195-E2 in our fleet with an order of up to 100, and we expect delivery of the 47th aircraft by the end of the year,” Michael Deluce, CEO Porter Airlines, told CityNews Ottawa. “Porter will continue to develop our network in YOW to destinations across Canada and in the U.S., utilizing both the E195 and Dash 8 aircraft.”

I have to assume (like others have said), that LAX & SFO (perhaps not daily each), LAS (perhaps not daily), an additional Florida market (in the winter at 2-4 weekly), and additional frequency on MCO, YVR, and perhaps FLL is in the near term outlook (3-9 months).

[MountainView]

Originally Posted by MountainView

I have to assume (like others have said), that LAX & SFO (perhaps not daily each), LAS (perhaps not daily), an additional Florida market (in the winter at 2-4 weekly), and additional frequency on MCO, YVR, and perhaps FLL is in the near term outlook (3-9 months).

Quoting myself... I know, sorry.

But I have to wonder, and would like other opinions, if Porter announces YOW-LAX or SFO, would AC and UA announce something in retaliation? I am not up-to-date on UA fleet, but I know AC is having some A220 issues and general fleet squeeze. I feel like that is the best aircraft for a potential retaliation on the LAX route.
OR - would they hope that Star A fliers continue to connect via YYZ or ORD for westward flying.

[Rhb]

Originally Posted by MountainView

Quoting myself... I know, sorry.

But I have to wonder, and would like other opinions, if Porter announces YOW-LAX or SFO, would AC and UA announce something in retaliation? I am not up-to-date on UA fleet, but I know AC is having some A220 issues and general fleet squeeze. I feel like that is the best aircraft for a potential retaliation on the LAX route.
OR - would they hope that Star A fliers continue to connect via YYZ or ORD for westward flying.

AC using a Dreamliner to YVR is their response to these direct (future) flights IMHO. It also helps AC in their ability to price below Porter Airlines direct flights to US west coast.

[Rhb]

Ottawa airport passenger volume numbers are out for April 2024.

https://yow.ca/en/corporate/airport-...ssenger-volume

[MountainView]

Originally Posted by Rhb

AC using a Dreamliner to YVR is their response to these direct (future) flights IMHO. It also helps AC in their ability to price below Porter Airlines direct flights to US west coast.

Thanks! The Dreamliner throughout the winter is definitely a positive for what you said.

[MountainView]

Originally Posted by Rhb

Ottawa airport passenger volume numbers are out for April 2024.

https://yow.ca/en/corporate/airport-...ssenger-volume

If I read the numbers right, YOW up 12% when you compare Jan-Apr 23 with Jan-Apr 24.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by MountainView

If I read the numbers right, YOW up 12% when you compare Jan-Apr 23 with Jan-Apr 24.

Good estimate - +12.6% in April and +13.6% YTD. Here's the full breakdown:

Sector / Apr-23 / Apr-24 / % Change
Dom: 232,650 / 237,243 / +2.0%
TB: 52,247 / 73,984 / +41.6% - beats the previous April record of 71,958 from 2013
Int'l: 28,488 / 41,562 / +45.9% - 3rd best April (2015 was the record with 45,155) - pretty good considering WG ended their season early April instead of at the end of the month
TTL: 313,385 / 352,789 / +12.6% - recovered to just behind April 2010's 356,707

Sector / YTD 2023 / YTD 2024 / % Change
Dom: 874,275 / 870,231 / -0.5%
TB: 199,702 / 313,556 / +57.0%
Int'l: 190,729 / 253,418 / +32.9%
TTL: 1,264,706 / 1,437,205 / +13.6% - currently on pace for 4.65 million pax

If PD more than replace the lost WS & F8 transborder capacity this winter, there's a chance the 2012 record of 775,040 could be broken, but May-October will need to average 60k/month. Not sure if that's possible between UA's increasing capacity, AC's cut capacity and PD's increased capacity (6x vs 3x daily this summer, incl 1x E95). There's no pre-pandemic DL or AA anymore of course.

April % of traffic recovered vs 2019 / YTD vs 2019
Sector / Traffic % recovered April 2024 vs April 2019 / Traffic % recovered YTD 2024 vs YTD 2019
Dom: 73.8% / 73.2% - huge laggard until PD hits their summer peak
TB: 108.6% / 111.0%
Int'l: 129.1% / 114.3%
TTL: 83.7% / 84.9%

12 Months Rolling / % Change vs Year End 2022
Dom: 3,198,855 / +18.1%
TB: 689,987 / +262.5%
Int'l: 379,571 / +277.1%
TTL: 4,268,413 / +42.3%

[Dominion301]

Today’s departure count: 80

Today’s cancellation count (so far): 0

[RomanR27]

Originally Posted by Dominion301

If PD more than replace the lost WS & F8 transborder capacity this winter, there's a chance the 2012 record of 775,040 could be broken, but May-October will need to average 60k/month. Not sure if that's possible between UA's increasing capacity, AC's cut capacity and PD's increased capacity (6x vs 3x daily this summer, incl 1x E95). There's no pre-pandemic DL or AA anymore of course.

The annual report for 2023 released earlier this month indicates the projected TB total for 2024 is just north of 650K. Overall passenger projection is 4.75M, a fair bit lower than the public line the AA was using of 2024 returning us to pre-pandemic numbers.

As an aside, WS has cut YVR to 4x weekly for a three weeks in the middle of June. Still daily from end of June until the end of service on Labour Day. Compared to this time last year, AC has an additional 7M8 and PD has 2x 295s, so WS might be getting squeezed out by those two carriers.

Originally Posted by MountainView

But I have to wonder, and would like other opinions, if Porter announces YOW-LAX or SFO, would AC and UA announce something in retaliation? I am not up-to-date on UA fleet, but I know AC is having some A220 issues and general fleet squeeze. I feel like that is the best aircraft for a potential retaliation on the LAX route.
OR - would they hope that Star A fliers continue to connect via YYZ or ORD for westward flying.

I've wondered about this, AC doing YOW-LAX on a 223 and trying to get UA to run SFO on a 319. But they also would have pretty good data combined on what O&D traffic from YOW to LAX/SFO respectively look like. And they might worry about cannibalizing their own feed to YYZ and ORD like you say. The advantage PD may have is that they can feed these routes with YYT, YHZ (and to a lesser extend YQM, YFC and YYG) so they wouldn't rely on purely O/D traffic like AC/UA would need to.

(Edit to add: though like you say, even if AC wanted to do this, it's probably a moot point as I doubt they have the lift at the moment to do it anyways)

[fanofYOW]

^ If AC/UA ever did that and they are successful with the strategy (which I highly doubt they will be), don't think for a second that the route will stick around. They might pull an AA where they did DFW to KEF just because carries out of KEF were doing it. When they retreated because of AA, they cut the route and now no one does KEF from DFW if I am not mistaken.

This Winter, we know there will be increased frequencies to the already Florida destinations PD is doing from YOW as confirmed by the CEO, but in terms of new destinations what is likely to happen is RSW and TPA. However, I'm hoping for MIA and the highly coveted LAS, SFO, LAX. LAS I believe can be year round. It was something like 65k O&D when WS was doing it a few times a week, then dropped to round 40k overtime after that cut. Now add on the fact that it might be daily, with feed, and the fact that direct stimulates demand + prevents leakage to YUL and you have a recipe for success. I personally prefer LAS in the Spring/Summer/Fall as hot as that sounds. Sometimes the temperature dips too low in the Winter making it less enjoyable (can't use the pool, needing a sweater) so it's you and your luck there.

[MountainView]

Originally Posted by RomanR27

The annual report for 2023 released earlier this month indicates the projected TB total for 2024 is just north of 650K. Overall passenger projection is 4.75M, a fair bit lower than the public line the AA was using of 2024 returning us to pre-pandemic numbers.

As an aside, WS has cut YVR to 4x weekly for a three weeks in the middle of June. Still daily from end of June until the end of service on Labour Day. Compared to this time last year, AC has an additional 7M8 and PD has 2x 295s, so WS might be getting squeezed out by those two carriers.



I've wondered about this, AC doing YOW-LAX on a 223 and trying to get UA to run SFO on a 319. But they also would have pretty good data combined on what O&D traffic from YOW to LAX/SFO respectively look like. And they might worry about cannibalizing their own feed to YYZ and ORD like you say. The advantage PD may have is that they can feed these routes with YYT, YHZ (and to a lesser extend YQM, YFC and YYG) so they wouldn't rely on purely O/D traffic like AC/UA would need to.

(Edit to add: though like you say, even if AC wanted to do this, it's probably a moot point as I doubt they have the lift at the moment to do it anyways)

WestJet is also flying YYC up to 4x daily. I'm wondering if the cuts to YVR come on the days where they have 4x to YYC.

I agree that AC and UA know the numbers on YOW-California. I think its one or the other, if they start the route. They could also grab connections to Asia and the Pacific via SFO/LAX though (but this would take away YOW connections via YVR).

Porter is definitely in a unique situation, where they can start YOW-LAX (for example) and have feed from numerous Maritime & Ontario stations. I believe Porter's CEO (or another senior manager), said that a YOW-Cali route would need some feed to make it work.

Does anyone know if the demand for the LAX/SFO markets are similar year round, or is demand higher in our winter season?

[DTcrawler]

Re: YOW - LAX/SFO service on PD, I was poking around on their website and just noticed they are commencing service to those two cities from YUL in late June. I must’ve missed that news on this forum when it was announced. I was just wondering what the chances are of PD launching either or both of those routes from YOW despite already running them from YUL? I find it hard to believe they’d run the same routes from three hubs located in close proximity to one other, then again all three cities are hubs so maybe it’s doable?

[MountainView]

Originally Posted by DTcrawler

Re: YOW - LAX/SFO service on PD, I was poking around on their website and just noticed they are commencing service to those two cities from YUL in late June. I must’ve missed that news on this forum when it was announced. I was just wondering what the chances are of PD launching either or both of those routes from YOW despite already running them from YUL? I find it hard to believe they’d run the same routes from three hubs located in close proximity to one other, then again all three cities are hubs so maybe it’s doable?

Porter, in essence, took over those routes from Air Transat as part of their Joint Venture together. It should have no impact on the prospectus of YOW-LAX/SFO on Porter in the future.

[MountainView]

Random Wednesday afternoon coffee thought:

How do we know that when AC receives their A321-XLR, that they won't redeploy an A330 or B788 on YOW-LHR instead of putting the A321-XLR on this route.

Also, will AC actually remove a slot from YUL-LHR to give to YOW, or recover the slot from their lessor.

Perhaps YOW-FRA would start before LHR... just a thought.

[DTcrawler]

Originally Posted by MountainView

Porter, in essence, took over those routes from Air Transat as part of their Joint Venture together. It should have no impact on the prospectus of YOW-LAX/SFO on Porter in the future.

Got it, thanks. Flying to LAX via ORD next week. When I found out about this trip over the winter I was hoping PD would’ve launched LAX from YOW by now but oh well. Next time.

[MountainView]

Originally Posted by DTcrawler

Got it, thanks. Flying to LAX via ORD next week. When I found out about this trip over the winter I was hoping PD would’ve launched LAX from YOW by now but oh well. Next time.

Pre-clearing in YOW and going via ORD is so much better than AC via YYZ. Is this your experience too? Makes the connection at ORD a lot more smooth/simple.

[RomanR27]

As was posted on the General Aviation thread, WG is going to operate as a standalone airline in Winter 2024-25 with integration into WS coming after that. I wonder if they'll add more frequencies on MBJ and CUN to cover WS pulling that service. I'd be surprised if they end up adding MCO, though.