DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[TakeFive]

Indeed

Originally Posted by rds70

A sizable revision. From 24,100 jobs YOY to 72,700 jobs YOY.

Nice to hear from you

Originally Posted by DenvertoLA

looks like Amacon has posted a fresh image of the towers currently under construction.

Interestingly, GT has a design code that mandates parking structures are wrapped and hidden, but the CBD doesn't. hmmm

https://amacon.com/portfolio/

Here's their local Denver website.

Stay tuned!

[TakeFive]

Don't Californicate Colorado

California has been playing the clean energy game for quite awhile. And why not, residents were promised that 'renewable' energy would be more economical; it would be cheaper. They lied (like all good politicians). Needing to raise rates even higher, they are currently devising a monthly surcharge that will be income based. Roughly from an additional $25 per month to an additional $125 per month depending on one's income.

Consider that California has one of the more temperate climates when you realize that most of the population lives along the coast.

Easy to search the rate per kilowatt hour -- As of January 2024:

• In Arizona it's 13.16¢ / kWh
• In Colorado it's 12.28¢ / kWh
• In California it's 19.90¢ / kWh
• In Texas it's 11.36¢ / kWh
• In Oregon it's 11.02¢ / kWh
• In Washington it's 9.79¢ / kWh

Consider that in the desert it's much more about air conditioning than heating and Arizona has to import most of their energy. Colorado is more balanced and it's blessed with state energy resources.

I struggle to believe that Colorado voters are This Extreme.

Something else that is concerning

California is blessed by extreme wealth as indicated by its GDP. Washington State has a list of company Headquarters to die for including Amazon and Microsoft. If you were to mention the HQ's in Colorado most people would likely go "Who?" How arrogant can Colorado afford to be?

Along the roads to electrification here's the latest:

EV euphoria is dead. Automakers are scaling back or delaying their electric vehicle plans
MAR 13 2024 -- CNBC

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

EV euphoria is dead. Automakers are scaling back or delaying their electric vehicle plans
MAR 13 2024 -- CNBC

3rd generation Li-I batteries still don't provide the distinctive edge over ICE models- automotive companies got greedy in starting to reposition their production processes, with the associated decrease in labor costs, probably 3-5 years too early. Range anxiety, charging limitations, and the entry cost are still big impediments. 4th generation batteries will address these issues, but those won't hit vehicles for 3-5 years. Once they do, that will likely accelerate the EV shift. Give a consumer an EV with a 500-plus mile range, a 15-minute charge time, and a sub $55K and you're going to hit it off for the general market.

Your CA analysis is a bit off. Recent rate increases there have been driven primarily by increased fuel costs (yay NG volatility!), wildfire damages, and a rebuilding of the D&T systems. You had a long-period where utility deregulation saw IOU's defer O&M excessively as you can't cost-recover it with the result that the systems have no excess capacity (all gobbled up) and also caused the worst wildfires in US history. Renewable development can also be folded into this, but the other factors are bigger drivers. There are other drives of course, but they are smaller though not insignificant.

CA burned because IOU's wanted those dollars and regulators believed that the rate base was sufficient to maintain the system. Whoops.

This is/will be occurring in other states as well as the piper comes due on the lack of system expansions and deferred maintenance for thermal plants as operators have been kicking the can down the road due to uncertainty in how they will continue to operate in the markets.

[TakeFive]

A Local Flavor on Life

Why are so many voters frustrated by the US economy? It’s home prices
March 15, 2024 BY JOSH BOAK -- AP

WASHINGTON (AP) — Lori Shelton can’t fathom ever having the money to buy a home — and that’s a major reason why so many voters feel down on the economy ahead of this year’s presidential election.

Shelton, 67, drives an Uber to help pay rent in Aurora, Colorado. An advance on her pay covered her apartment’s security deposit. But it also cut into her next paycheck, leaving her bank account dangerously low when the rent was due — a cycle that never seems to end. “I’m always one step behind,” said Shelton, her voice choking up. “It’s a nightmare, it’s a freaking nightmare right now.”

Score a point for laniroj

The United States is slogging through a housing affordability crisis that was decades in the making. At the root of this problem: America failed to build enough homes for its growing population.

While AP has a long-standing record of credibility I have noticed a decided liberal flavor to many of their articles.

It's the political axiom that if we merely repeat something over and over... then it must be true, right?

Of course the state legislature thinks they have the answers

You can put guardrails on (free) markets; you can incentivize markets but bankers are going to bank and investors are going to invest - or not invest. And the odd thing is it more typically ends in 'too much' as apposed to not enough.

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Excellent Post

Originally Posted by wong21fr

CA burned because IOU's wanted those dollars and regulators believed that the rate base was sufficient to maintain the system. Whoops.

This is/will be occurring in other states as well as the piper comes due on the lack of system expansions and deferred maintenance for thermal plants as operators have been kicking the can down the road due to uncertainty in how they will continue to operate in the markets.

[Sam Hill]

Edit: NM. My comment would have encouraged an off-topic detour.

[1000ftDenver]

This is a pretty fun angle (also found on Denver tallest buildings wiki page). I noticed today that two cranes, and eventually 18th and Glenarm, will plug the hole between 1801 California and 1999 Broadway. Huge fan of the density in that part of DT.



Source: Me

[Sam Hill]

Originally Posted by 1000ftDenver

This is a pretty fun angle (also found on Denver tallest buildings wiki page). I noticed today that two cranes, and eventually 18th and Glenarm, will plug the hole between 1801 California and 1999 Broadway. Huge fan of the density in that part of DT.



Source: Me

Nice pic! These days the Denver skyline is starting to look thick. I know everybody wants tall. But the thick mass of mid-rises in the foreground and periphery of most skyline pics is what my eyes are drawn to. I like to picture what’s going on and how many people live down in those hoods.

BTW, two tower cranes were erected over the past week and a half at the 8th and Broadway site (AMLI Golden Triangle.) I’ve been watching from my west-facing, 9th floor balcony in Cap Hill. The Golden Triangle is getting dense! I walked through there a couple days ago, checking out all the projects along Bannock and whatnot. There was way more foot traffic in that hood than I’ve ever seen before, and it’s only going to get better.

[TakeFive]

A Look at Two 12-story Towers Proposed Near Mission Ballroom
MAR 3, 2024 By S. Carter -- Naked Denver

4114 Brighton Blvd


Credit Pebb Capital & Maxwell Real Estate Group

Miami-based Pebb Capital & Maxwell Real Estate Group proposed a mixed-use hotel and residential project at the intersection of 41st Avenue & Brighton Blvd. Situated near the Mission Ballroom in the evolving River North Art District (RiNo). The development is set to be an eye catcher with two 12-story towers, 370 residential units, a 192-room hotel, and ground-floor retail and art facilities, totaling 619,887 square feet.

According to site plans, Tower #1 will be a 275,668 square foot tower including 54 studios, 11 jr 1beds, 121 1bed, 58 2bed and 8 3bed units. Tower 1 will also include the 192 room hotel. Tower 2 will consist of a 108,171 square foot tower including 39 studios, 36 jr 1beds, 42 1bed, 1 2bed and 0 3bed units.

Parking will also be available with 100 vehicles spaces and 90 bicycle spaces. The project is granted parking exemptions considering the proximity to 38th Avenue station.

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62 Affordable Condos Headed to Welton & 29th
MAR 7, 2024 By S. Carter -- Naked Denver

2915 Welton Street -- Click for Rendering

A surface parking lot at the corner of Welton & 29th Street could soon be activated into a 5-story mixed-use building. The lot is owned by The Regional Transportation District (RTD) and is conveniently located directly in front of the 29th & Welton light rail stop. Currently, this station is closed. RTD selected this site back in 2010 as one of four TOD Pilot sites to promote affordable homeownership This location is expected to be even better once the Welton Street Cafe opens its doors across the street at 2883 Welton Street.

According to site plans, the project will consist of 62 affordable condos, 4,160 square feet of ground floor retail, 26 vehicle parking spots and 60 bicycle parking spots.

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Two Multifamily Buildings with 189 units Proposed Along N Speer Blvd
MAR 13, 2024 BY S. Carter -- Naked Denver

2855 N Firth --Click for Rendering

2800 N Speer Blvd -- Click for Rendering

A significant development site in the Denver Highlands neighborhood could soon see a pair of 5-story multifamily developments. Carmel Partners, an institutional investment manager based in Denver, acquired the site in 2022 for $10 million.

According to the building plans, the building at 2800 N Speer will consist of 79,356 square feet with 79 residential units, 62 vehicle parking spaces and 40 bicycle spaces.

The building at 2855 N Firth Ct will consist of a 110,954 square foot building with 110 residential units, 92 vehicle parking spaces and 56 bicycle spaces.

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65-Unit Mixed-Use Building set to Replace a Dunkin Donuts at 4th & Broadway
FEB 29, 2024 BY S. Carter -- Naked Denver

366 Broadway -- Click For Rendering

In an exciting development for the Speer neighborhood, plans have been unveiled for a new 5-story apartment building at the corner of Broadway and E 4th Avenue. The project, spearheaded by Davis Partnership Architects on behalf of 366 Broadway, LLC—a firm that has owned the site since 2013—promises to be a significant addition to the area.

The proposed building spans a total of 74,324 square feet while, incorporating 65 residential units. The ground floor is designated for two retail spaces, specifically aimed at eating and drinking establishments. In addition, the building will include a private enclosed parking garage with 65 parking spaces and 16 bike spaces.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

OWe've also discussed "Induced Demand" before. It's a bit humorous how induced demand has created a hazard for some downtown Condominiums.

Old farts have a problem walking over edges and don't like to look both ways. News at 9P.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by laniroj

Yea I’m still waiting for my account to monetize to get me some of those easy internet dollars! No, no I’m not. I’d rather eat my fingers down over time than post videos on the interwebs.

For some of you newbs on this forum (aka post 2014-era) this forum had NOTHING for an extended period of time there preceding and following the Great Recession. Doesn’t seem like we are headed quite for that but development velocity and new projects have certainly slowed quite a bit. To fill the project vacuum, we could…talk about…suggestions? Take five does do a good job of periodically introducing projects in the fringe. I’d love to see posts about condo developments (anywhere Denver metro). I know of maybe three annd two are Amacon…are there others?

At least during the Great Recession there were a couple wars (U.S. wars) going on to distract us from the lack of development news.

There's actually quite a bit going on in the public sphere, just not on the private development side, given rates.

I would love to hear everyone's ideas for downtown. What to do when (if?) the 16th Street Mall debacle is ever done? Strategies for how to incentivize the office-to-resi conversions that I assume most of us agree are the long-term strategy for revitalizing downtown? Stuff like that.

[mhays]

A San Francisco group says there's a $267,000 "feasibility gap" to make office-to-residential conversions work there, on average. A Seattle developer who's done historic rehabs and new buildings says he thinks conversions cost twice as much as new construction. I have no idea what Denver's "gap" would be, but it's probably huge too. At least you're not a seismic zone.

In the Seattle area we're attacking this, though nowhere near enough. City Council is considering a plan to waive a lot of the fees we charge new construction, skip the design review process, and waive some of the other land use code requirements that apply to new construction. Meanwhile the State appears poised to let cities grant exemptions from charging our 10% sales tax on construction, but only if affordable units are included.

Collectively this might take the equation from "lol, no" to "sure, if lending rates drop a couple points, construction costs drop a little, the building is perfect, and we get the building at a 50% discount vs. 2020."

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by mhays

A San Francisco group says there's a $267,000 "feasibility gap" to make office-to-residential conversions work there, on average. A Seattle developer who's done historic rehabs and new buildings says he thinks conversions cost twice as much as new construction. I have no idea what Denver's "gap" would be, but it's probably huge too. At least you're not a seismic zone.

In the Seattle area we're attacking this, though nowhere near enough. City Council is considering a plan to waive a lot of the fees we charge new construction, skip the design review process, and waive some of the other land use code requirements that apply to new construction. Meanwhile the State appears poised to let cities grant exemptions from charging our 10% sales tax on construction, but only if affordable units are included.

Collectively this might take the equation from "lol, no" to "sure, if lending rates drop a couple points, construction costs drop a little, the building is perfect, and we get the building at a 50% discount vs. 2020."

Main problem is even the best office layout is maybe 70% efficient for residential. If you could get the office for around $50-$80/usable foot, it might work. That said, unless it's a bank auctioning the property, it seems unlikely to start seeing even the old office buildings trade for those numbers but who knows! I'd love to do one of those conversions and have been trying hard to make sense of those numbers. If the City offered free steam for 20 years, it might help to swing the needle a bit more too.

[Ich]

Curious of what you guys think about single stair buildings? DFD seems against it but is there any data that supports there are more fire casualties with this type of building? Also if they were allowed, would they really reduce the price point to make them attainable by most?

https://denverite.com/2024/03/15/sin...s-fire-safety/

[midwestcowboy]

Originally Posted by Ich

DFD seems against it but is there any data that supports there are more fire casualties with this type of building? https://denverite.com/2024/03/15/sin...s-fire-safety/

One thing I've learned - if the fire department is against it, it's probably a positive for urban living. Their instincts are suburban and tend towards massive ROWs and large, setback buildings - not just Denver's, but pretty much every FD in the country. They are given a disproportionate voice in urban design that isn't based on practicality or safety but tradition and convenience.

Related: I wish every neighborhood had a station like this one in Five Points: https://www.google.com/maps/place/De...!1e2?entry=ttu

And the truck supply started to look more like this: https://ktla.com/news/technology/rid...od-rosenbauer/

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by midwestcowboy

...They are given a disproportionate voice in urban design that isn't based on practicality or safety but tradition and convenience...

This should be on the cover of the Wall Street Journal!! I'd suggest the Times, but they're likely aligned with FDs.

[mhays]

Originally Posted by midwestcowboy

One thing I've learned - if the fire department is against it, it's probably a positive for urban living. Their instincts are suburban and tend towards massive ROWs and large, setback buildings - not just Denver's, but pretty much every FD in the country. They are given a disproportionate voice in urban design that isn't based on practicality or safety but tradition and convenience.

In the US we fight like hell to stop individual accidents (when convenient), but we don't care about systemic dangers.

So we make streets wider and eliminate crossings to "reduce collisions," but people's health declines because they don't walk anymore.

[mr1138]

Originally Posted by twalm

Also that Denver7 article ALSO reads like satire. Miserable reporting on an effort to improve automobile/pedestrian safety.

Just imagine the HORROR of stepping outside onto the 10 to 12-foot sidewalk (downtown) in front of your condo building to find you have to actually LOOK to see if a bicycle is coming before you step across the bike lane. It makes you wonder how people in The Netherlands ever make it safely outside their front door, much less across the street without getting mowed down by those crazy cyclists in the protected bike lane.

Honestly - this is the kind of NIMBY nonsense that makes people not take guys like the one Denver7 interviewed seriously.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by mhays

In the US we fight like hell to stop individual accidents (when convenient), but we don't care about systemic dangers.

So we make streets wider and eliminate crossings to "reduce collisions," but people's health declines because they don't walk anymore.

The planning components in our country are wise to this bad strategy but the engineers and fire departments are resisting and mostly hold the design power for this issue. There is a clear link between wider streets and higher speeds resulting in traffic accidents and vehicle/pedestrian accidents. Time will tell whether the planners or the engineers/fire marshals come out on top.

[DenvertoLA]

http://https://denvergazette.com/new...052a7.amp.html

Interesting read. This article could prompt productive discussion. Imo
All this fear about future traffic and not one peep of expanding train service to cherry creek highlight the unseriousness of NIMYs

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by DenvertoLA

http://https://denvergazette.com/new...052a7.amp.html

Interesting read. This article could prompt productive discussion. Imo
All this fear about future traffic and not one peep of expanding train service to cherry creek highlight the unseriousness of NIMYs

Try this link: https://denvergazette.com/news/visio...00d6052a7.html

Yeah, that one works.