Africa's Rising Cities: How Africa will become the center of the world’s urban future

[Nite]

Originally Posted by mhays

The article is interesting re: the situation and challenges of each city, but it's not written by experts in demographics or urban development. The former has some apples-oranges and the latter isn't really covered. For starters, won't they need to build to accomplish those residential density figures?

Especially when the omit all the transit projects going on, Lagos alone has two metro line under construction (Red and Blue lines) with 4 more planned, Nigeria has a big intra-city rail network under-construction and many other transit projects throughout the country.
For lago=s they seem to only focus on the underdeveloped side with no pictures of Lagos Island, Victoria Island or Lekki which are the most developed part of Lagos. They also erroneous said only 1 bridge has been built in Lagos which currently has 6 bridges across all the waterways with a 7th for the metroline under construction right now. Nigeria is investing in its cities more now than at any other time before and no mention of all the projects in the article.

[Acajack]

While the country only has about half as many people as Nigeria (100 million vs 200 million) the Democratic Republic of the Congo (former Zaire) is also growing very fast.

According to projections its population could double to 200 million by 2050.

But its capital and largest city Kinshasa is more on pace with Lagos, and could have 35-40 million people by 2050, and 85-100 million people by 2100.

It also has more than twice the land area of Nigeria.

[Segun]

Right now Africa is catching up to modernism from being at archaic conditions at a super fast speed, perhaps the fastest in human history that it's ever been done. It's like watching steel be forged, the process is going to be chaotic, so things are going to be extreme. Extreme displays of wealth, fellowship in tandem with extreme displays of corruption, poverty - mix and match. There's no several hundred years of dark ages in this timeframe, only decades.

There's some dictators, but nothing like the Gaddafi/Mobuto/Amin level. Also, while the relationship with China seems to be exploitative, I don't see that exploitation going very far. If anything I see Africans either negotiating more equitable terms or reverse-engineering everything China is doing and doing it themselves, while adding their own unique solutions.

[muppet]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Right, I believe Mexico City had the fastest growth of any urban center in recorded history during the 1960's and 1970's, and people were projecting a colossal megacity, multiples bigger than other megacities.

I don't know about Mex City but I remember we did a tally on SSC back in the day and found of all cities 1970s Seoul metro was the winner, although 1960s Tokyo and 1990s Shanghai came close (660-650K pa) Seoul hit 700,000 a year.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by muppet

I don't know about Mex City but I remember we did a tally on SSC back in the day and found of all cities 1970s Seoul metro was the winner, although 1960s Tokyo and 1990s Shanghai came close (660-650K pa) Seoul hit 700,000 a year.

Shanghai jumped from 13.3 million (1990) to 16.4 million (2000) and 23.0 million (2010), so they did added 650k people/year.

Seoul didn't: 1.0 million (1950), 2.7 million (1960), 5.3 million (1970), 8.2 million (1980) and 10.5 million (1990). 300k in the 1970's were their peak. Adding Incheon (600k to 1 million 1970-1980) and Gyeongg (3.3 million to 4.9 million 1970-1980), which was mostly rural around that time, we get 500k/year.

In Latin America, São Paulo posted the fastest growth: 2.6 million (1950), 4.7 million (1960), 8.1 million (1970), 12.6 million (1980), 15.4 million (1991), with a 450k/year average in the 1970's and might have crossed the 500k in one or two years in that decade.

[biguc]

But guyssss, how is all of Canada supposed to house 500k people a year.

Originally Posted by Nite

Especially when the omit all the transit projects going on, Lagos alone has two metro line under construction (Red and Blue lines) with 4 more planned, Nigeria has a big intra-city rail network under-construction and many other transit projects throughout the country.
For lago=s they seem to only focus on the underdeveloped side with no pictures of Lagos Island, Victoria Island or Lekki which are the most developed part of Lagos. They also erroneous said only 1 bridge has been built in Lagos which currently has 6 bridges across all the waterways with a 7th for the metroline under construction right now. Nigeria is investing in its cities more now than at any other time before and no mention of all the projects in the article.

The article makes Lagos seem like a Jennifer Government, libertarian dystopia. I'm now curious about the actual status of their metro system's development. That will be a game changer, both for moving people around the city, and for establishing trust in government.

[edale]

Just poking around streetview, Lagos looks incredibly unprepared to become an ultra mega city like what's being described. Huge swaths of the city are tin roof shacks and basically DIY slum construction:

https://www.google.com/maps/place/La...93!4d3.3792057

https://www.google.com/maps/@6.45548...7i13312!8i6656

https://www.google.com/maps/place/La...93!4d3.3792057

https://www.google.com/maps/@6.46772...7i13312!8i6656

40 million people in those conditions sounds like absolute hell. I don't think a couple metro lines moves the needle for a city like this.

[sopas ej]

But a lot of the world looks like this. You have street vendors, presumably businesses next door to residences, children playing in the street...
https://www.google.com/maps/@6.45421...7i13312!8i6656

I love chaotic cities. This looks like a fun area to explore. I'd prefer this to Helsinki, one of the cleanest capitals but the most boring European capital I've visited.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by sopas ej

But a lot of the world looks like this. You have street vendors, presumably businesses next-door to residences, children playing in the street...
https://www.google.com/maps/@6.45421...7i13312!8i6656

I love chaotic cities. This looks like a fun area to explore. I'd prefer this to Helsinki, one of the cleanest capitals but the most boring European capital I've visited.

That seems like a relatively nice area of Lagos. Plenty of areas look like this.

[Steely Dan]

i gotta admit, street-viewing around Lagos is eye-opening.

the garbage-strewn open sewers everywhere, the ramshackle housing, the grayed-out smog-filled skies, the random collections of old junk littered about , etc.

sure, it might be very active and mixed-use and "fascinating", but man does it ever look pretty dystopian.

it kinda looks like one big giant cholera outbreak just waiting to happen.

i get that too clean can be "too clean", but Lagos takes things way too far in the other direction IMO.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

i gotta admit, street-viewing around Lagos is eye-opening.

the garbage-strewn open sewers everywhere, the ramshackle housing, the grayed-out smog-filled skies, the random collections of old junk littered about , etc.

sure, it might be very active and mixed-use and "fascinating", but man does it ever look pretty dystopian.

it kinda looks like one big giant cholera outbreak just waiting to happen.

i get that too clean can be "too clean", but Lagos takes things way too far in the other direction IMO.

The eventual modernization efforts will produce an economic boom period for Lagos, similar to what occurred in the U.S. in the late 19th century and early 20th century.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

The eventual modernization efforts will produce an economic boom period for Lagos, similar to what occurred in the U.S. in the late 19th century and early 20th century.

The US was blossoming into a major global economic power. Nigeria's economy is quite limited. If Lagos/ Nigeria do modernize, it won't be in our lifetimes as the vast majority of the city is underdeveloped and it would take a monumental amount of money, political will and resources just to pave the entire city and install sewage.

[eschaton]

Maybe we should focus on nice cities in Africa instead...since Lagos isn't one?

Downtown Dakar looks quite nice for Africa. Gritty, but no worse than say Naples.

Mombasa isn't bad either.

Of course, there's always Zanzibar.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by sopas ej

But a lot of the world looks like this. You have street vendors, presumably businesses next door to residences, children playing in the street...
https://www.google.com/maps/@6.45421...7i13312!8i6656

I love chaotic cities. This looks like a fun area to explore. I'd prefer this to Helsinki, one of the cleanest capitals but the most boring European capital I've visited.

Yes Lagos looks truly lovely! That's why the rich and powerful spend their summer's in such a beautiful and vibrant city yeah to catch malaria

Are people actually serious with this? Lagos looks awful, the people with money that live there likely live in heavily guarded walled off compounds or they simply live far outside of the city only visiting when necessary.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Maybe we should focus on nice cities in Africa instead...since Lagos isn't one?

Downtown Dakar looks quite nice for Africa. Gritty, but no worse than say Naples.

Mombasa isn't bad either.

Of course, there's always Zanzibar.

How about an actual nice city like in Botswana:

https://goo.gl/maps/2uyQjDNgYwBvauaT9

Or Harare:
https://goo.gl/maps/RvptDEkJEZCKXSTE9

Or some of Nairobi:
https://goo.gl/maps/1H8AyrBD3yL5U34m6

Rwanda aint bad either:
https://goo.gl/maps/LyGRsnSEgkhaq9kr5

[eschaton]

I'm going to attempt to find the nicest parts of Lagos.

CBD-type area only a few blocks from slums.

Decent suburban area.

I can't find a single decent walkable business area. This comes closest, but it's still pretty run down. I'm guessing the wealthy take cars everywhere, meaning there are no upscale walkable areas.

[homebucket]

Once the Chinese fully get their hands on these African cities, they’ll be the next Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chongqing, and Chengdus.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Obadno

How about an actual nice city like in Botswana:

https://goo.gl/maps/2uyQjDNgYwBvauaT9

Or Harare:
https://goo.gl/maps/RvptDEkJEZCKXSTE9

Or some of Nairobi:
https://goo.gl/maps/1H8AyrBD3yL5U34m6

Rwanda aint bad either:
https://goo.gl/maps/LyGRsnSEgkhaq9kr5

Yup. That's one form of African urbanism common...the "towers in the park" setup. Not a fan personally. Something like this in Nairobi seems much more human scale to me.

[JHikka]

That area of Nairobi seems quite nice. It'll be really interesting to see how these African cities grow and develop in the coming decades. Very exciting stuff.

[BG918]

If you’re looking for a model African city look no further than Cape Town. Yes it has it slums but overall functions extremely well and is in a beautiful setting.