The real problem with Vancouver’s outrageous house prices

[MIPS]

Originally Posted by davee930

Langley is unaffordable too. I just submitted for building permits, 35 extra large houses that sold overnight. Almost 2 million each.

The whole province is pretty unaffordable now unless you are extremely remote or your connection to the outside world is poor.
This whole covid exodus as people work from home and want to relocate to quieter places turned even the market up here red hot. I moved into where I live now 20 years ago and in that time with no renovations or changes to the structure or property the value has increased $400000. In the last 12 months alone it's gone up another $108000. I can't put my head around how.

[trofirhen]

Could we be in a housing bubble? Could a meltdown be coming?
I have no knowledge at all on this and would love to hear responses from people who might know. Thank you.

[dleung]

I'm a partner in a Toronto firm, but have been basically living in Vancouver for the past year, along with a surprising number of colleagues who were originally from here too. The time difference makes for quite a few early morning meetings here and late nights for the Toronto folks... but totally worth it. The new age of remote working is going to draw talent away from traditional "where the money's at" markets, toward places with higher livability, so good news for Vancouver, if it can curb the sprawl associated with this migration.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by dleung

I'm a partner in a Toronto firm, but have been basically living in Vancouver for the past year, along with a surprising number of colleagues who were originally from here too. The time difference makes for quite a few early morning meetings here and late nights for the Toronto folks... but totally worth it. The new age of remote working is going to draw talent away from traditional "where the money's at" markets, toward places with higher livability, so good news for Vancouver, if it can curb the sprawl associated with this migration.

I wonder if this is a common story, I have a friend who recently moved from Toronto back to Vancouver and continues to work Toronto hours for his marketing job and I have another friend who recently was hired remotely at a software company in Toronto and also works Toronto hours. I'm still getting used to group messages at 2PM saying "Hey, is anyone free? I just got off work"

[MIPS]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

Could we be in a housing bubble? Could a meltdown be coming?
I have no knowledge at all on this and would love to hear responses from people who might know. Thank you.

They've been saying the bubble was going to pop for over a decade and it never has. You get several months of slower sales, the papers say the market is cooling off and a month later it's back up again. As long as people have deep pockets to overspend on a property, or interest rates on loans and mortgages remain unnaturally low nothing is going to change.

What would it look like when it does? Well speculating (pun) on what happened in the 2008 sub-prime meltdown we didn't see entire neighborhoods devalue so much as we saw overall value drop as everyone defaulted on loans but even there we're talking tens of thousand, if not less than $200K in total variance in value top to bottom as it rebounded in less than ten years. In Vancouver we have seen suburban residential properties overvalued in the hundreds of thousands and into the millions of dollars and I cannot see there being any sort of gradual return to normality when a market is that hot. This is not something exclusive to Vancouver. At this point I can't even see a bursting bubble tanking prices as hard as they need to be. IF we ever got close the feds would bail anyone out before anything happened and we're in the middle of a global viral pandemic. This is the thing some people predicted would crash world markets but with little hesitation even that has failed to put the brakes on.
At this rate whatever pops the bubble is going to be so unfathomably bad there's going to be a lot more collateral damage beyond the value of property falling into the floor.
(nuclear contamination, The Big One, a lethal mutation of COVID-19 immune to the vaccine, political/economic collapse etc.)

[Jalapeño Chips]

Originally Posted by MIPS

The whole province is pretty unaffordable now unless you are extremely remote or your connection to the outside world is poor.
This whole covid exodus as people work from home and want to relocate to quieter places turned even the market up here red hot. I moved into where I live now 20 years ago and in that time with no renovations or changes to the structure or property the value has increased $400000. In the last 12 months alone it's gone up another $108000. I can't put my head around how.

We took the plunge late October last year and bought a house in an ocean side community in BC. The ability to work remotely was definitively a motivator, as well as magnification ocean views, all the amenities you can ask for locally, a safe and clean community, easy access to amazing nature, and great and friendly neighbours.

What was shocking was the amount of people in the same position and looking for the same. In the 6 moths we've been here, house sales in our immediate neighbourhood have doubled in sales price, and are now listing for triple what we paid. We got in just in time and feel lucky, but sad also it's gone up so much. Not sure how this is sustainable.

[Vin]

Perhaps the Pre-Fab technology should be pursued for this country to house the many people who can't afford decent living.

• Video Link

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by Vin

Perhaps the Pre-Fab technology should be pursued for this country to house the many people who can't afford decent living.

That's how the 800 Temporary Modular housing buildings have been constructed across the City of Vancouver (and there are more in other municipalities). The cost of construction isn't the main reason that projects here are expensive; it's the land costs, which have risen significantly in the past couple of years (in the city, and the rest of the region). The new rental building on Granville Street is proposed to be constructed from offsite pre-constructed CLT modules. Apparently, it won't be significantly cheaper to build than on-site assembly, although it should be quicker.

[trofirhen]

Î think that such a project would bring howls of everything from "nimby" to "not politically correct" to "socialism" to "just frekkinbuttugly."
That said, I think governements need to shoulder the reponsibility for proper housing if the market cannot do it, and it seems that market forces cannot / will not.

[whatnext]

Every time I read a story like this, I wonder how much of it is due to the insane cost of housing in Metro Vancouver. 15-20 years ago a gynaecological oncologist would have been able to afford to live Kerrisdale or Dunbar just a few minutes away from work. Now why would a highly skilled professional choose to work here when they know their income will go so much further elsewhere?

Daphne Bramham: 'Horror show' as B.C. specialist shortage leads to agonizing wait for woman's urgent cancer surgery

...Ennis’ journey through the medical system began Dec. 4 in the emergency room at Delta Hospital, only a few days after B.C. reported its first case of the Omicron variant.

Many cancer surgeries have been cancelled due to COVID. But the pandemic didn’t delay Ennis’s original surgery date. It only amplified B.C.’s longstanding and acute shortage of gynaecological oncologists, according to Dr. Sarah Finlayson, head of the gynaecological oncology program at the University of B.C. and who practices at the B.C. Cancer Agency and Vancouver General Hospital.

“British Columbia has a human resources crisis,” she said in an interview. “We have approximately the equivalent of seven full-time gynaecological oncologists serving a population of five million people.”

She contrasts that with other Western Canadian provinces — Alberta has 12 for a population of 4.3 million, Saskatchewan has six for a population of 1.1 million, Manitoba has five for 1.3 million.

And here’s another contrast: Fraser Health Authority has a population of 1.9 million (including Ennis) and doesn’t have a single one...

https://vancouversun.com/opinion/col...n-before-covid

[svlt]

Above a certain income tier people aren't really thinking of stretching their dollar anymore. I know dual income physicians (some serious $$) that, sure, maybe they can get a gated 5 figure square foot mansion far out in the suburbs with four luxury cars but they chose a smaller modest detached bungalow that will be fully renovated in Dunbar instead and drive a practical family car.

Basically for many I think if you can comfortably afford it, the location comes first and all the bells and whistles come after. An MD in almost anything should still be able to pick up a detached house in CoV. Still doesn't make the prices any less absurd.

[WarrenC12]

Agree, furthermore, surgeons and other high paid specialists often have big egos. They want to be able to tell people they have a SFH on the west side. It's also close to their main work sites at the major specialty hospitals.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by svlt

Above a certain income tier people aren't really thinking of stretching their dollar anymore. I know dual income physicians (some serious $$) that, sure, maybe they can get a gated 5 figure square foot mansion far out in the suburbs with four luxury cars but they chose a smaller modest detached bungalow that will be fully renovated in Dunbar instead and drive a practical family car.

Basically for many I think if you can comfortably afford it, the location comes first and all the bells and whistles come after. An MD in almost anything should still be able to pick up a detached house in CoV. Still doesn't make the prices any less absurd.

Perhaps but it is clear BC has a more acute shortage than the prairies. f you're a surgeon with 2-3 kids, why would you choose to cram them into a old bungalow in Vancouver when you can get so much more in Calgary or Saskatoon (not to mention the USA)? Are we just going to fall back on "but Vancouver's so beautiful"? Because it doesn't seem to be working.

And if it is that bad for highly paid doctors, what about the nurses who are so essential in keeping the system running?

[mezzanine]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Every time I read a story like this, I wonder how much of it is due to the insane cost of housing in Metro Vancouver. 15-20 years ago a gynaecological oncologist would have been able to afford to live Kerrisdale or Dunbar just a few minutes away from work. Now why would a highly skilled professional choose to work here when they know their income will go so much further elsewhere?

Yeah, this story has zero to do with housing prices, nothing in the article mentions "housing", it deals with a percieved lack of funding for gyne oncology positions.

Where people want to move and raise their families is complex, but I don't think the lure of alberta carries much water anymore with health care providers

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmon...nics-1.5524027

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...rses-1.6114721

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by mezzanine

Yeah, this story has zero to do with housing prices, nothing in the article mentions "housing", it deals with a percieved lack of funding for gyne oncology positions.

Where people want to move and raise their families is complex, but I don't think the lure of alberta carries much water anymore with health care providers

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmon...nics-1.5524027

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...rses-1.6114721

So you’re going to try and claim this lack of medical specialists has nothing to do with housing prices? With Vancouver supposed much vaunted livability why isn’t a snap to attract medical professionals?

Maybe because with those skills they can pick and choose far more financially sensible places. Look what you can buy in Cleveland for the price of a one bed condo in Vancouver:
https://www.movoto.com/shaker-height...9545/for-sale/

[Migrant_Coconut]

Buying a house in Cleveland also means that you have to live in Cleveland. Dirt-cheap prices usually indicate a problem in the opposite direction.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Buying a house in Cleveland also means that you have to live in Cleveland. Dirt-cheap prices usually indicate a problem in the opposite direction.

And Cleveland is home to the Cleveland Clinic, one of the most prestigious medical facilities in the USA. Pretty tempting for a doctor especially when a multi-bedroom mansion is the same as a one bedroom condo in Kits. As to the winters, that doctor's salary will get you to Hawaii just as easily as from Vancouver.

[GenWhy?]

Originally Posted by whatnext

So you’re going to try and claim this lack of medical specialists has nothing to do with housing prices? With Vancouver supposed much vaunted livability why isn’t a snap to attract medical professionals?

Maybe because with those skills they can pick and choose far more financially sensible places. Look what you can buy in Cleveland for the price of a one bed condo in Vancouver:
https://www.movoto.com/shaker-height...9545/for-sale/

Commuting from Vancouver to Fraser Health region might be a major issue for them, if you're using living in Vancouver as an example, and they don't want to live in Chilliwack, for instance.

[svlt]

I mean expensive places are usually expensive for a reason yet still have people living there. Vancouver is a mild outlier for sure considering city amenities and maybe quality of life but I'm fairly sure you can find a doctor in Geneva, Sydney, Singapore, Hong Kong, San Francisco or New York.

It's not the doctors I'm worried about, those salaries can comfortable afford here no matter how it's spun. I don't speak for everyone but a modest standard lot west side house out here is so much nicer than gated McMansion living in Cleveland, and flying around all the time is no substitute. It's the low income earners I'm much more concerned for and the wide plethora of jobs and services they fulfill, they are terribly squeezed out even on rentals with little relief on the horizon.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by whatnext

And Cleveland is home to the Cleveland Clinic, one of the most prestigious medical facilities in the USA. Pretty tempting for a doctor especially when a multi-bedroom mansion is the same as a one bedroom condo in Kits. As to the winters, that doctor's salary will get you to Hawaii just as easily as from Vancouver.

Not all doctors care about getting a mansion, nor do they all not care about the city the mansion comes with. Otherwise the primary medical hub of the world would be Tijuana.