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  #61  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2020, 3:04 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Again, show us the stats that "prove" that people previously living in core Chicago now wish to live in a cornfield. And "prove" that Covid caused this.

You can't; it's all speculation.

And my sister is hardly rich. She took less pay to live in downtown Chicago. There's a tremendous rural shortage of dentists.
Rents in Chicago have collapsed.

Vacancies have soared. That’s a fact. You can find it on Google.

The suburban for sale market in Chicago is positively booming. Google it. You will find that what I’m saying is true. In. 5. Seconds.

I never said people are going to move to a cornfield. You’re straw-manning my points.
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  #62  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2020, 3:22 PM
Crawford Crawford is offline
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
Rents in Chicago have collapsed.

Vacancies have soared. That’s a fact. You can find it on Google.
Well, yeah. The % of 20-somethings living with their parents is the highest in U.S. history since WW2.

Rental demand sucks because there was literally no influx of young people to cities this year. Urban rental markets depend on annual influx of college/grad students/immigrants. But this has nothing to do with core Chicago's long-term prospects. Becky and Chad aren't living in Mommy's basement forever.

Quote:
Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
The suburban for sale market in Chicago is positively booming. Google it. You will find that what I’m saying is true. In. 5. Seconds.
This definitely isn't true in the NY metro. And I suspect it isn't true in the Chicago metro either, at least not post-September.

The market for Loop-adjacent housing is shit, obviously. But that's a temporary phenomenon. But I bet that homeowner sales in areas like Lincoln Park and Lakeview are healthy. Transient housing for immediate post-grads is gonna be shit until the pandemic ends.
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  #63  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2020, 3:28 PM
jtown,man jtown,man is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
At least in the NY area, a very high % of upper income urbanites have weekend homes. I'd say most of our friends have weekend homes (or at least access to weekend homes via parents or relatives), and they aren't all HNWI.

Even pre-Covid, if you visited a wealthy Manhattan neighborhood on a summer weekend, it would be a virtual ghost town, except for tourists/visitors. This is because upper class families generally have homes elsewhere.


No. People live in core Chicago because they like urban living. No one is living in downtown Chicago and secretly pining for rural KY. It's an absurd premise.

Even pre-Covid, there was huge reverse commuting into Chicagoland suburbs, because many younger people really prefer cities, enduring horrible commutes. There were many people working remotely from city centers (I have a friend working 100% remote for American Express since the early 2000's and living in Lower Manhattan; he could technically live anywhere).

My sister was a dentist living in downtown Chicago for many years. She commuted to Bourbonnais, which is a rural town south of Chicago. It was an absolute hell commute, especially in the winter, but she did it because she wanted city life. She could have made more money outside of major metro areas, due to a shortage of dentists. She could have had no commute if she moved to rural Illinois. But those were never considerations, because she valued urban living.

I don't know a single person who lives in an expensive urban core because of a job. It doesn't make any sense, because all the urban cores have cheaper suburban areas nearby, so if you dislike urban living, there are already much better nearby options. No one has to live in a city center. You can already commute to Chicago's West Loop faster from Oak Park or Evanston or than from many core neighborhoods (due to Metra).
So everyone living in downtown Chicago are there because they love city life? Funny, a girl just posted in a local apartment facebook group that she needs an apartment downtown, but it must be within walking distance of her job at a hotel. Anyways.

My point wasn't that the majority of people would move. It's that a big enough percentage will. It's not like someone who lives in downtown Chicago will move to some random Kentucky town. It's that with having the mobility to live anywhere, they might move back to their kentucky town so they will have free babysitters etc.

Again, I am not saying this will be the case for the MAJORITY of people, but it will impact enough to have a ripple effect throughout the entire urban landscape. Also, when 20-40% of service locations close down downtown, there will be less reasoning to live in a dense location.
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  #64  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2020, 3:31 PM
jtown,man jtown,man is offline
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
Rents in Chicago have collapsed.

Vacancies have soared. That’s a fact. You can find it on Google.

The suburban for sale market in Chicago is positively booming. Google it. You will find that what I’m saying is true. In. 5. Seconds.

I never said people are going to move to a cornfield. You’re straw-manning my points.
It's a fact. I leased my apartment last December for 2255 a month. It's 597 sq ft. I will be moving into a new apartment next month- 250 more sq ft, a balcony, more storage etc. and I will only be paying 1850.

So I am getting a better place by all metrics and paying 400 less a month. This isn't good.
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  #65  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2020, 3:32 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
And I suspect it isn't true in the Chicago metro either, at least not post-September.
.
Well, after a 10 second Google search:

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/crai...me-market-boom

https://chicagoagentmagazine.com/202...o-the-suburbs/

Suburban housing boom. Chicago.
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  #66  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2020, 3:34 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Well, yeah. The % of 20-somethings living with their parents is the highest in U.S. history since WW2.

Rental demand sucks because there was literally no influx of young people to cities this year. Urban rental markets depend on annual influx of college/grad students/immigrants. But this has nothing to do with core Chicago's long-term prospects. Becky and Chad aren't living in Mommy's basement forever.
That plays a big role, but you’re also in denial of a bigger issue. Work from home.
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  #67  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2020, 3:36 PM
Crawford Crawford is offline
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Originally Posted by jtown,man View Post
So everyone living in downtown Chicago are there because they love city life?
If we're talking young professionals, yes. Or they have a spouse/partner who prefers city life.
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  #68  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2020, 3:39 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by jtown,man View Post
My point wasn't that the majority of people would move. It's that a big enough percentage will. It's not like someone who lives in downtown Chicago will move to some random Kentucky town. It's that with having the mobility to live anywhere, they might move back to their kentucky town so they will have free babysitters etc.

Again, I am not saying this will be the case for the MAJORITY of people, but it will impact enough to have a ripple effect throughout the entire urban landscape. Also, when 20-40% of service locations close down downtown, there will be less reasoning to live in a dense location.
I think this is a point that people like Crawford are missing.

You only need a small proportion of people (10%, for example) to bail permanently on our central cities for it to have a very damaging ripple effect.
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  #69  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2020, 3:49 PM
Crawford Crawford is offline
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
I think this is a point that people like Crawford are missing.

You only need a small proportion of people (10%, for example) to bail permanently on our central cities for it to have a very damaging ripple effect.
Households are always "bailing permanently" on center cities. Most people who move to center cities after college are in the burbs by the time they're in their 40's. Urban living, with children, isn't for most folks. My urban-loving sister is now in the burbs (not because of pandemic but because she has three kids, including a special needs kid best served in a suburban district).

So the pandemic is possibly accelerating some people's moves to suburbia. But this isn't a long-term change; it's simply accelerating what people would do anyways.

There were lots of studies of residential preferences following 9-11 and NYC. There was a post-9-11 flight to the suburbs. However, it was found that those that moved to the suburbs would have moved anyways, so the long-term effect was basically nothing. The same is likely true during the pandemic (i.e. those who would end up in Schaumburg anyways are moving there ahead-of-schedule).
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  #70  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2020, 3:53 PM
badrunner badrunner is offline
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How much of this is specific to Chicago which has been overbuilding in its core for the past decade? Rents might have collapsed there even without the pandemic. I don't see it happening in higher demand cities.
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  #71  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2020, 5:14 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Households are always "bailing permanently" on center cities. Most people who move to center cities after college are in the burbs by the time they're in their 40's. Urban living, with children, isn't for most folks. My urban-loving sister is now in the burbs (not because of pandemic but because she has three kids, including a special needs kid best served in a suburban district).

So the pandemic is possibly accelerating some people's moves to suburbia. But this isn't a long-term change; it's simply accelerating what people would do anyways.

There were lots of studies of residential preferences following 9-11 and NYC. There was a post-9-11 flight to the suburbs. However, it was found that those that moved to the suburbs would have moved anyways, so the long-term effect was basically nothing. The same is likely true during the pandemic (i.e. those who would end up in Schaumburg anyways are moving there ahead-of-schedule).
What you continue to fail to take into account is the permanent move to “work from home” status. Who is going to come back in and replace the people leaving cities when more people are permanently going to work from their laptop at home?

That wasn’t a factor post-9/11
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  #72  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2020, 5:16 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by badrunner View Post
How much of this is specific to Chicago which has been overbuilding in its core for the past decade? Rents might have collapsed there even without the pandemic. I don't see it happening in higher demand cities.
Huh?

Do you bother to do any research prior to posting?
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  #73  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2020, 5:17 PM
Stay Stoked Brah Stay Stoked Brah is offline
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
What you continue to fail to take into account is the permanent move to “work from home” status. Who is going to come back in and replace the people leaving cities when more people are permanently going to work from their laptop at home?

That wasn’t a factor post-9/11
and post 9/11 people had to return to work because the internet was still in its early beginning. today, we have 5g, tablets, smart phones, high speed fiber gigablast internet, zoom, FaceTime, electronic signatures. you don't even have to show up to court or a senate hearing today.
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  #74  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2020, 5:21 PM
badrunner badrunner is offline
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
Huh?

Do you bother to do any research prior to posting?
Really? You've never heard of this?
https://therealdeal.com/chicago/2020...t-back-a-year/

It's been talked about on this forum even before the pandemic.
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  #75  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2020, 5:23 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by badrunner View Post
Really? You've never heard of this?
https://therealdeal.com/chicago/2020...t-back-a-year/

It's been talked about on this forum even before the pandemic.
It’s well known that this is a pandemic issue for all of the major cities (NYC, Bay Area, etc)

So to answer your silly question whether this is just a Chicago specific issue: the answer is a glaring NO
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  #76  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2020, 5:24 PM
badrunner badrunner is offline
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Those other cities don't have oversupply like Chicago though
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  #77  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2020, 5:25 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by Stay Stoked Brah View Post
and post 9/11 people had to return to work because the internet was still in its early beginning. today, we have 5g, tablets, smart phones, high speed fiber gigablast internet, zoom, FaceTime, electronic signatures. you don't even have to show up to court or a senate hearing today.
My point exactly

I think a lot of the forumers here are in complete denial
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  #78  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2020, 5:26 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by badrunner View Post
Those other cities don't have oversupply like Chicago though
Dude, you are talking a bunch of nonsense.

There was NO oversupply in Chicago pre-pandemic. The friggin rental vacancy rate was at all time lows.

Geez you are really taking this off topic with your trolling nonsense. Stay on topic please
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  #79  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2020, 5:32 PM
badrunner badrunner is offline
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
Dude, you are talking a bunch of nonsense.

There was NO oversupply in Chicago pre-pandemic. The friggin rental vacancy rate was at all time lows.

Geez you are really taking this off topic with your trolling nonsense. Stay on topic please
From 2018: How an oversupply of large multifamilies is signaling to Chicago real estate investors

Oversupply + pandemic. Not a good combo.
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  #80  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2020, 5:45 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by Stay Stoked Brah View Post
and post 9/11 people had to return to work because the internet was still in its early beginning. today, we have 5g, tablets, smart phones, high speed fiber gigablast internet, zoom, FaceTime, electronic signatures. you don't even have to show up to court or a senate hearing today.
For NYC at least, this isn't the first time that the city has been crippled during the internet age. Many of us who were here during Sandy also spent weeks, or months, working from home because office buildings and train infrastructure had been severely damaged. Sandy was far more of an existential threat to New York than the pandemic. I know people whose apartment buildings were inhabitable for months after Sandy. Large office towers in lower Manhattan were shut for the better part of a year.

Sandy was the first real life demonstration of what climate change could mean for NYC, and also exposed the unique vulnerabilities of NYC versus other large cities like Chicago or Dallas. After the storm a lot of companies started to think about disaster scenarios, the risks of staying in NYC versus relocating, etc. Most, if not all, large companies decided to move critical computer infrastructure away from New York, but no large company that I know of made a decision to relocate from New York because of Sandy. The damage from Sandy still hasn't even been fully repaired, but since then extremely high-risk lower Manhattan has added workers, and so has Midtown, particularly in Hudson Yards. I'm bringing all of this up to say that there is little precedent that the pandemic will disproportionately affect New York.
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