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  #101  
Old Posted Nov 14, 2020, 1:46 PM
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  #102  
Old Posted Nov 14, 2020, 3:47 PM
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i was talking about this yesterday, if we want more people in the us then we could build a road from south america to north america and a road from russia to america. then build some new cities in western america, there is water and sun for solar panels. just not many people.
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  #103  
Old Posted Dec 23, 2020, 10:26 PM
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Covid-19 will make the UK to register negative natural growth for the second time in modern history (including the WWI). It happened in 1976 and once again in 2020:

Jan-Sep 2020: 513,208 births and 513,986 deaths

2019: 731,213 births and 616,014 deaths

2010: 807,721 births and 561,666 deaths

More: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demogr...s_(1900–2019)
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  #104  
Old Posted Dec 23, 2020, 10:51 PM
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Originally Posted by isaidso View Post

With US population growth collapsing they can't intensify their cities to the point where there will be enough tax payers per square km to pay for it all. I suspect lots of US municipalities still haven't woken up to what a big problem they've created.
you really should research your news sources beyond hysterical cbc editorials. this is completely incorrect. all travel has collapsed worldwide this year, which affects movement. in the years just prior trump crushed immigration, which is a short term loss that will be corrected in a month. also usa cities continue to build and grow despite the pandemic and temporary decline of immigration, obviously developers and the business world are continuing to be bullish on them and forward looking. i suspect you will find hopeful people flocking back in once the barn door is opened again, to not expect that is naivete.
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  #105  
Old Posted Dec 25, 2020, 9:44 AM
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Originally Posted by mrnyc View Post
you really should research your news sources beyond hysterical cbc editorials. this is completely incorrect. all travel has collapsed worldwide this year, which affects movement. in the years just prior trump crushed immigration, which is a short term loss that will be corrected in a month. also usa cities continue to build and grow despite the pandemic and temporary decline of immigration, obviously developers and the business world are continuing to be bullish on them and forward looking. i suspect you will find hopeful people flocking back in once the barn door is opened again, to not expect that is naivete.
I tuned out of CBC a long time ago but nice try. And these demographic trends started appearing well before Trump and COVID-19. If you'd done your own proper research, you'd know that.
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  #106  
Old Posted Jan 30, 2021, 2:14 PM
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The first preliminary numbers of deaths in the US for 2020 are at 3.2 million, an almost 400k excess: https://usafacts.org/articles/prelim...virus-age-flu/

That’s the largest excess ever recorded. Not even the Civil War killed so many people in a such short time frame.

I unsuccessfully looked for birth figures for the whole year. However, data from the first half of 2020 indicates a huge drop, and it might fall below 3.5 million.
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  #107  
Old Posted Jan 30, 2021, 3:18 PM
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This has more to do with collapsing road related tax revenues than anything. Gas taxes haven’t increased in decades and cars are more fuel efficient than ever. Electric cars look like they may eliminate major taxes on auto movement altogether.

40 years ago roads were financed much more by gas taxes, and governments could afford to fix them. Now cars are travelling many more miles with paying the same amount of tax - there is inevitably going to be a crunch on the maintenance side since roads are now mostly funded through general tax revenues.
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  #108  
Old Posted Jan 30, 2021, 6:18 PM
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  #109  
Old Posted Jan 30, 2021, 6:40 PM
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Originally Posted by galleyfox View Post
It’s referring to all housing units being accounted for. That’s not too difficult-a house exists or it doesn’t.

The part the census has trouble with is the self-response. Did a grandparent move in? Is there a new baby? Student returned home from college? Did the census worker contact a neighbor or landlord for resident who’s on vacation or in the hospital... so on so on.

That’s where the undercounts happens.
I disagree. In cities like New York, there are many informal housing units. A lot of places not officially recognized by the city that's very popular among immigrant neighborhoods. Case in point, illegal basement apartment conversions or other subdivisions. There are also thousands of SRO apartments that have a shared restroom facilities. I doubt the Census Bureau is aware as officially it shows up as single-family housing in city records.

Anyway, when will the official results of the 2020 Census be released? It should be any day now.
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  #110  
Old Posted Jan 30, 2021, 6:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere View Post
This has more to do with collapsing road related tax revenues than anything. Gas taxes haven’t increased in decades and cars are more fuel efficient than ever. Electric cars look like they may eliminate major taxes on auto movement altogether.

40 years ago roads were financed much more by gas taxes, and governments could afford to fix them. Now cars are travelling many more miles with paying the same amount of tax - there is inevitably going to be a crunch on the maintenance side since roads are now mostly funded through general tax revenues.
How about surtax on prickup trucks*, which, by being heavier and larger, damage roads and take up considerably more space, respectively?

*refundable to the 10% of people that actually need such huge gaping tanks for their jobs, but not to the 90% that buy them for inferiority-complex and small anatomy purposes.
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  #111  
Old Posted Jan 30, 2021, 7:01 PM
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Originally Posted by MolsonExport View Post
How about surtax on prickup trucks*, which, by being heavier and larger, damage roads and take up considerably more space, respectively?

*refundable to the 10% of people that actually need such huge gaping tanks for their jobs, but not to the 90% that buy them for inferiority-complex and small anatomy purposes.
I remember about 15 years ago, officials at the Department of Transportation were pushing a tax on each mile driven that would be calculated by having a GPS or internet connected odometer in each car. I thought they were crazy!!! Fast forward to today, I see now that they were just deeply worried about fuel efficiency and EVs that are escaping the gas tax.

My prediction is that the path of least resistance will be more toll roads to generate revenue and less spent on maintenance and expansion. It's not going to be pretty in a decade. The gas tax will have to jump too, but it won't nearly be enough to keep up with inflation. EV is also going to take off this decade.
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  #112  
Old Posted Jan 30, 2021, 9:23 PM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
The first preliminary numbers of deaths in the US for 2020 are at 3.2 million, an almost 400k excess: https://usafacts.org/articles/prelim...virus-age-flu/

That’s the largest excess ever recorded. Not even the Civil War killed so many people in a such short time frame.

I unsuccessfully looked for birth figures for the whole year. However, data from the first half of 2020 indicates a huge drop, and it might fall below 3.5 million.
So, the U.S population still grew at a snails pace. 300k.
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  #113  
Old Posted Jan 30, 2021, 10:09 PM
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So, the U.S population still grew at a snails pace. 300k.
Yes, still positive in 2020. However, if we do 2Q2020/1Q2021 or a 3Q2020/2Q2021, it will probably be negative.

2021 is not looking promising, so I guess there will be an excess of 200,000 deaths or so, ending the year around 3.0 million-3.1 million. Births, 3.4 million-3.5 million.
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  #114  
Old Posted Jan 30, 2021, 10:42 PM
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I have no doubt that the population growth will resume with Biden's relaxation of immigration restrictions, and with a 'baby boomlet' resulting from the end of covid restrictions.
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  #115  
Old Posted Jan 30, 2021, 10:46 PM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
Yes, still positive in 2020. However, if we do 2Q2020/1Q2021 or a 3Q2020/2Q2021, it will probably be negative.

2021 is not looking promising, so I guess there will be an excess of 200,000 deaths or so, ending the year around 3.0 million-3.1 million. Births, 3.4 million-3.5 million.
With the vaccinations I guess we'll have to see. I'm also thinking this year will be better than last, and like dc_denizen stated with Biden relaxed immigration policies, im sure we will see a surge in immigration.
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  #116  
Old Posted Jan 30, 2021, 11:26 PM
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With the vaccinations I guess we'll have to see. I'm also thinking this year will be better than last, and like dc_denizen stated with Biden relaxed immigration policies, im sure we will see a surge in immigration.
With daily deaths in the US close to 4,000, unfortunately those 200,000 excess deaths are the optimist scenario, with vaccination completely putting the pandemic under control by April or so. Immigration will resume eventually, but much later in the year and with modest figures.

Demographically speaking, only in 2022 the US will be back to normal, but by then, I don't think the US will ever register less than 3 million deaths/year while births might grow again, to 3.7 million in a more optimistic scenario.
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  #117  
Old Posted Feb 5, 2021, 3:11 PM
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Mexicans released their 2020 Census results

----------------------- 2020 -------- 2010 -------- 2000
Code:
MEXICO ----------- 126,014,024 -- 112,336,538 --- 97,483,412 --- 12.18% --- 15.24%
Code:
Mexico City ------- 21,804,515 --- 20,116,842 --- 18,396,677 ---- 8.39% ---- 9.35%
Monterrey ---------- 5,341,177 ---- 4,226,031 ---- 3,426,352 --- 26.39% --- 23.34%
Guadalajara -------- 5,268,642 ---- 4,521,755 ---- 3,772,833 --- 16.52% --- 19.85%
Puebla ------------- 3,199,530 ---- 2,728,790 ---- 2,269,995 --- 17.25% --- 20.21%
Toluca ------------- 2,353,924 ---- 2,014,091 ---- 1,605,571 --- 16.87% --- 25.44%
Tijuana ------------ 2,157,853 ---- 1,751,430 ---- 1,352,035 --- 23.21% --- 29.54%
León --------------- 1,924,771 ---- 1,609,504 ---- 1,269,179 --- 19.59% --- 26.81%
Querétaro ---------- 1,594,212 ---- 1,161,458 ------ 873,298 --- 37.26% --- 33.00%
Ciudad Juárez ------ 1,512,450 ---- 1,332,131 ---- 1,218,817 --- 13.54% ---- 9.30%
--- Mexico City growth didn't collapse as estimates suggested. In fact, it seems to be converging with the national average.

--- Monterrey overtook Guadalajara as the country's 2nd city and it grew faster than the past decade? Maybe US Mexicans returning?
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  #118  
Old Posted Feb 5, 2021, 4:25 PM
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^ So with that final 2020 census number, I guess we can now officially say that mexico has leap-frogged japan to pull into the #10 spot on the largest nations list.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List..._by_population
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  #119  
Old Posted Feb 5, 2021, 4:48 PM
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^ So with that final 2020 census number, I guess we can now officially say that mexico has leap-frogged japan to pull into the #10 spot on the largest nations list.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List..._by_population
The next major takeover that will be officially confirmed will be Pakistan over Brazil for the 5th, a place Brazil held since the end of USSR in 1991. It's the 5th largest country and also the 5th most populated till 2020. And soon, Nigeria will also jump ahead.

Brazilian Census was postponed from 2020 to 2021 due Covid.
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  #120  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2021, 11:50 AM
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I'm not familiar with Mexico, but I'm impressed by Monterrey's performance. Their GDP per capita is twice as high as Mexican average and growing fast. They're posed to become a North American urban powerhouse.

Code:
New York ---------- 22,589,036 --- 22,255,628 ---- 1.50%

Mexico City ------- 21,804,515 --- 20,116,842 ---- 8.39%

Los Angeles ------- 18,711,436 --- 17,877,303 ---- 4.67%

Chicago ------------ 9,825,325 ---- 9,841,359 --- -0.16%

Washington-Balt. --- 9,814,928 ---- 9,050,440 ---- 8.45%

San Francisco ------ 9,665,887 ---- 8,924,185 ---- 8.31%

Boston ------------- 8,287,710 ---- 7,893,676 ---- 4.99%

Dallas ------------- 8,057,796 ---- 6,807,889 --- 18.36%

Toronto ------------ 7,680,502 ---- 6,972,807 --- 10.15%

Houston ------------ 7,253,193 ---- 6,100,028 --- 18.90%

Philadelphia ------- 7,209,620 ---- 7,068,006 ---- 2.00%

Miami -------------- 6,889,936 ---- 6,201,499 --- 11.10%

Atlanta ------------ 6,853,392 ---- 6,054,822 --- 13.19%

Detroit ------------ 5,341,994 ---- 5,319,107 ---- 0.43%

Monterrey ---------- 5,341,177 ---- 4,226,031 --- 26.39%

Guadalajara -------- 5,268,642 ---- 4,521,755 --- 16.52%

Phoenix ------------ 5,002,221 ---- 4,246,721 --- 17.79%

Seattle ------------ 4,903,675 ---- 4,274,757 --- 14.71%
Canada --- 2019-2012
US --- 2019-2010
Mexico --- 2020-2010

* Toronto including Hamilton and Oshawa, 14%/decade growth
** Note Mexico City has a massive nertwork of neighbouring metro areas (Puebla, Toluca, etc.); Central Valley population is around 35 million
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