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  #1881  
Old Posted Mar 26, 2020, 8:38 PM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Originally Posted by xymox View Post
Well, let's see how the recovery from the current situation impacts growth/migration patterns. That could be quicker if we recover sooner and other areas lag - driving people here for work. Assuming the jobs are still here...
Unless this virus suddenly becomes black death 2.0 I dont expect it to have any serious impact on migration patterns long term.

Although I imagine current moves are way down from 200 a day we've been averaging.
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  #1882  
Old Posted Mar 27, 2020, 7:52 AM
TJPHXskyscraperfan TJPHXskyscraperfan is offline
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Originally Posted by xymox View Post
Well, let's see how the recovery from the current situation impacts growth/migration patterns. That could be quicker if we recover sooner and other areas lag - driving people here for work. Assuming the jobs are still here...
I could definitely see a failed business owner from say New York wanting to start over here when all said and done.
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  #1883  
Old Posted Mar 27, 2020, 7:56 AM
TJPHXskyscraperfan TJPHXskyscraperfan is offline
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I Always felt the San Francisco-Oakland area should include the San Jose area being the Bay Area and it’s all pretty connected, more connected then say Casa Grande when we include Pinal County in our stats. With that said I would say we are really a spot behind what they say, San Fran should be right around the size of the Houston area.
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  #1884  
Old Posted Mar 27, 2020, 4:23 PM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Originally Posted by TJPHXskyscraperfan View Post
I Always felt the San Francisco-Oakland area should include the San Jose area being the Bay Area and it’s all pretty connected, more connected then say Casa Grande when we include Pinal County in our stats. With that said I would say we are really a spot behind what they say, San Fran should be right around the size of the Houston area.
Yes there are a number of oddities in the way we calculate MSA's and CSA's

Some cities like the bay area and LA you should count them as their CSA's splitting off riverside and San Jose is just stupid.

But other cities like NYC its' CSA includes Philly, and even if economically Philly is a hard satellite of NYC I dont think anyone would consider Philly to be "part of" NYC like Riverside or San Jose are to LA and the Bay.
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  #1885  
Old Posted Mar 27, 2020, 5:47 PM
biggus diggus biggus diggus is offline
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Taken from the Block 23 webcam, I assume all those cars on top of the garage are stored rental cars. Anyone know for sure? Doesn't matter, just a curiosity thing.

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  #1886  
Old Posted Mar 27, 2020, 7:43 PM
RichTempe RichTempe is offline
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Originally Posted by biggus diggus View Post
Taken from the Block 23 webcam, I assume all those cars on top of the garage are stored rental cars. Anyone know for sure? Doesn't matter, just a curiosity thing.

Where ever they're from, they started appearing around 1:15PM on the 18th and looks like it was finished just a few hours later.
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  #1887  
Old Posted Mar 27, 2020, 8:00 PM
crwhiteinaz crwhiteinaz is offline
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Thought I would share this from the Phoenix Business Journal - found it interesting.

https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/...aditional.html

==============================================

Commercial Real Estate

My View: In real estate, it's no time for traditional thinking or actions
By Mark Stapp – Contributing writer

Mar 27, 2020, 12:07pm MST
I have been asked several times during the past couple weeks about the impact COVID-19 will have on real estate and my answer is, we can only speculate because this is still playing out and we have no idea of the pandemic's duration or total impact.

We are certain it is severe. It is unlike anything we have experienced in recent times. What I am sure of is the normal approach, the typical attitudes and strategy, is not likely to work and maybe will cause more damage.

Are we resilient? Can we absorb these impacts in Phoenix as a place? Yes, but it will take a “shared” mentality. Resiliency is ability to absorb shocks. Resiliency of places and populations is derived from well-formed formal and informal social networks and systems - the ways and means of helping each other. Our required response to this crises is the opposite - maintaining distance and having limited connection.

The systems we need are impeded, restricted and in some cases unable to function. Technology may help to remain connected and supportive as well as offer some comfort. We need more than just comfort. We need collective support.

Real estate is an industry where value is derived from others using and paying for use of space, but those very people and organizations that establish that value are now prohibited. They are closed down or at risk of closing. Business are shutting down, and people are losing their jobs.

How do we respond? Foreclose, lock-out? What good does that do when there is no replacement for those tenants. Forbearance at all levels is the best approach. Do we do more community damage by enforcing our contractual rights as owners? Do we recognize the need for shared value — in this case, a shared community value? The values we seek to defend, protect, enforce are derived from the community, not the buildings themselves.

Real estate is more than a source of cash flow, wealth and income. It is the physical infrastructure within which society functions and communities exist. Shared value recognizes that we derive value from the community and as such the corollary also exists, that of shared responsibility, support, risk and, yes, suffering.

The entire system that is real estate industry needs to recognize that forbearance and support for those who establish our value is needed.

This crises will end, we just don’t know when. But when it does, what is left? I hope the industry, including lenders, recognize that just because they can foreclose, lock out, evict, doesn't mean it results in a better outcome and possibly it makes matters worse. No one knows what happens, what impacts there will be, we can only speculate. What we know is our decisions require careful, thoughtful, non-traditional and more compassionate thinking.

In closing, think of these words from Martin Van Buren: “Mutual forbearance and reciprocal concessions: thro' their agency the Union was established — the patriotic spirit from which they emanated will forever sustain it.”

Mark Stapp is executive director of the masters program of real estate development at Arizona State University's W.P. Carey School of Business.
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  #1888  
Old Posted Mar 27, 2020, 10:42 PM
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In a followup to my grumpy post on Phoenix Development News, this is the place to have this discussion.
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  #1889  
Old Posted Apr 5, 2020, 7:28 PM
Sunsfan87 Sunsfan87 is offline
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International Space Station View

Pretty cool view of Phoenix and Tucson.
https://mobile.twitter.com/space_sta...29955155218433
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  #1890  
Old Posted Apr 5, 2020, 7:37 PM
RichTempe RichTempe is offline
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Originally Posted by Sunsfan87 View Post
Pretty cool view of Phoenix and Tucson.
https://mobile.twitter.com/space_sta...29955155218433
Cool find!
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  #1891  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2020, 4:02 AM
DesertRay DesertRay is offline
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Originally Posted by RichTempe View Post
Cool find!
Watched the ISS blaze across the sky tonight. Thanks for the tip!
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  #1892  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2020, 5:25 PM
azsunsurfer azsunsurfer is offline
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It was awesome! It was so bright too! Very cool!
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  #1893  
Old Posted Apr 7, 2020, 7:00 PM
ASU Diablo ASU Diablo is offline
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Here’s why Arizona is becoming a hot spot for filmmakers

Sounds like a no-brainer to bring back the tax incentive.

https://azbigmedia.com/business/here...or-filmmakers/
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  #1894  
Old Posted Apr 7, 2020, 11:18 PM
Sunsfan87 Sunsfan87 is offline
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MLB in AZ

I’m sure everyone has seen the news around this but though I’d post anyway. This would be awesome for the Valley even though nobody could attend the games.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...-early-arizona
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  #1895  
Old Posted Apr 8, 2020, 1:05 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Obadno View Post
Yes there are a number of oddities in the way we calculate MSA's and CSA's

Some cities like the bay area and LA you should count them as their CSA's splitting off riverside and San Jose is just stupid.

But other cities like NYC its' CSA includes Philly, and even if economically Philly is a hard satellite of NYC I dont think anyone would consider Philly to be "part of" NYC like Riverside or San Jose are to LA and the Bay.
They do it by commuting patterns across counties, which is rather dumb because the county is the most arbitrary way of looking at things.

San Jose has its own MSA, but it is part of the overall 9 county Bay Area CSA. It's 50 miles from downtown SJ to the SF terminus (at least on Caltrain), crossing three counties and two MSAs, which is shorter than Buckeye to Gilbert which is we know is within one MSA and CSA and one county.

The Census just shouldn't use counties to determine metro area sizes--I've long wondered about eg, population density within contiguous blocks of 1000 people per square mile which the Census calls "urbanized."
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  #1896  
Old Posted Apr 8, 2020, 4:25 AM
TJPHXskyscraperfan TJPHXskyscraperfan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Obadno View Post
Yes there are a number of oddities in the way we calculate MSA's and CSA's

Some cities like the bay area and LA you should count them as their CSA's splitting off riverside and San Jose is just stupid.

But other cities like NYC its' CSA includes Philly, and even if economically Philly is a hard satellite of NYC I dont think anyone would consider Philly to be "part of" NYC like Riverside or San Jose are to LA and the Bay.
NYC doesn’t include Philly although it does include a few Pennsylvania counties well north of Philly. Yep, agreed with LA as well, it should include San Bernardino and Riverside county as well.
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  #1897  
Old Posted Apr 8, 2020, 4:40 AM
TJPHXskyscraperfan TJPHXskyscraperfan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crwhiteinaz View Post
Thought I would share this from the Phoenix Business Journal - found it interesting.

https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/...aditional.html

==============================================

Commercial Real Estate

My View: In real estate, it's no time for traditional thinking or actions
By Mark Stapp – Contributing writer

Mar 27, 2020, 12:07pm MST
I have been asked several times during the past couple weeks about the impact COVID-19 will have on real estate and my answer is, we can only speculate because this is still playing out and we have no idea of the pandemic's duration or total impact.

We are certain it is severe. It is unlike anything we have experienced in recent times. What I am sure of is the normal approach, the typical attitudes and strategy, is not likely to work and maybe will cause more damage.

Are we resilient? Can we absorb these impacts in Phoenix as a place? Yes, but it will take a “shared” mentality. Resiliency is ability to absorb shocks. Resiliency of places and populations is derived from well-formed formal and informal social networks and systems - the ways and means of helping each other. Our required response to this crises is the opposite - maintaining distance and having limited connection.

The systems we need are impeded, restricted and in some cases unable to function. Technology may help to remain connected and supportive as well as offer some comfort. We need more than just comfort. We need collective support.

Real estate is an industry where value is derived from others using and paying for use of space, but those very people and organizations that establish that value are now prohibited. They are closed down or at risk of closing. Business are shutting down, and people are losing their jobs.

How do we respond? Foreclose, lock-out? What good does that do when there is no replacement for those tenants. Forbearance at all levels is the best approach. Do we do more community damage by enforcing our contractual rights as owners? Do we recognize the need for shared value — in this case, a shared community value? The values we seek to defend, protect, enforce are derived from the community, not the buildings themselves.

Real estate is more than a source of cash flow, wealth and income. It is the physical infrastructure within which society functions and communities exist. Shared value recognizes that we derive value from the community and as such the corollary also exists, that of shared responsibility, support, risk and, yes, suffering.

The entire system that is real estate industry needs to recognize that forbearance and support for those who establish our value is needed.

This crises will end, we just don’t know when. But when it does, what is left? I hope the industry, including lenders, recognize that just because they can foreclose, lock out, evict, doesn't mean it results in a better outcome and possibly it makes matters worse. No one knows what happens, what impacts there will be, we can only speculate. What we know is our decisions require careful, thoughtful, non-traditional and more compassionate thinking.

In closing, think of these words from Martin Van Buren: “Mutual forbearance and reciprocal concessions: thro' their agency the Union was established — the patriotic spirit from which they emanated will forever sustain it.”

Mark Stapp is executive director of the masters program of real estate development at Arizona State University's W.P. Carey School of Business.
If they forgive rent for say 2 or 3 months, I think a good solution would be to add a $1 tax per transaction to go to the landlord for the next 6 months, maybe a year. We are all in this together and even though customers might be upset to pay an extra dollar when They’re getting lunch or whatever, I would definitely be happy that place didn’t close up. I feel this would be an easy way to do it if that’s possible. This could easily add up to a couple thousand dollars a month for a small restaurant or lots more for a big bar. It could be a percent if a dollar doesn’t make sense for the business. It doesn’t add stress to the business with a higher rent fee. It would be a win, win. If the business is doing well, the landlord will do well as well.
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  #1898  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2020, 7:07 PM
Phxguy Phxguy is offline
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https://dtphx.org/2020/04/15/fun-fac...ntown-phoenix/

The rest of the article has ‘meh’ facts but one that stood out is that approximately 4,153 residential units are being built downtown (as of April 2020).
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  #1899  
Old Posted Apr 20, 2020, 4:13 PM
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CrestedSaguaro CrestedSaguaro is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Phxguy View Post
https://dtphx.org/2020/04/15/fun-fac...ntown-phoenix/

The rest of the article has ‘meh’ facts but one that stood out is that approximately 4,153 residential units are being built downtown (as of April 2020).
I actually thought the Renaissance hotel having the hidden "PHX" letters was pretty nifty. Never knew that.
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  #1900  
Old Posted Apr 21, 2020, 8:41 PM
Phxguy Phxguy is offline
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Originally Posted by CrestedSaguaro View Post
I actually thought the Renaissance hotel having the hidden "PHX" letters was pretty nifty. Never knew that.
Not that I didn’t find the facts interesting, but I already knew most of them I’m a history-buff and lover of all things downtown so I devour these little quirks and oddities. Someday, I would love to guide a tour through the area!
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