Minority majority MSAs in the US

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by westak

The Majority of Clevelands black population lives in the suburbs. I think Cleveland is slightly different than the other metros mentioned.

that's true -- there are solid cleveland black suburbs, like warrensville heights, maple heights, east cleveland and maybe a few others. even beachwood, which is mostly jewish and only 10% black, has traditionally been a destination for the wealthy african american community. in fact its recently said than many black folks did not go far when they moved out of cleveland proper in the most current exodus. so greater cleveland is much more black than the official msa.

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

i disagree with that.

just look at the absolute number of latinos in them.

52,920 latinos in pittsburgh MSA

95,073 latinos in cincy MSA.

even if we peeled off most of the outlying counties, those totals would still constitute latino shares WAY below the national average.

like i said before, i'd absolutely prefer to use UA's for this, but even if we could, the rankings would not change all that much.

pittsburgh would still be among the whitest metro areas in the nation. it wouldn't somehow become middle of the pack just from peeling off some low-population largely rural outlying counties.

it's the very stark lack of latinos relative to most other major urban centers that is driving most of it.

The lack of hispanic/Latino population in Pittsburgh absolutely plays a major role in the MSA being 80+% white, I fully agree.

But for Pittsburgh, at least, it is more due to its oversized MSA area. Pittsburgh does indeed have significant black population outside of the city limits and even outside of Allegheny County:

Black pop %:

Rankin: 69%
Braddock: 67%
Wilkinsburg: 67%
Homestead: 59%
Duquesne: 57%
Clairton: 38%
Penn Hills: 37%
McKeesport: 36%
Aliquippa: 35%
McKees Rocks: 33%
Arnold: 27%
Stowe: 23%
Swissvale: 22%
Donora: 20%

This is just a list of ~ 20% or greater black population areas (and not even including places with significant black populations which are further afield within the MSA boundaries). The point is, the above significant populations of blacks outside of Pittsburgh are negated by the vast, white rural areas unrealistically included in the MSA.

If we "right-sized" the Pittsburgh MSA to remove the far-flung 50-60 mile away, non-related, 100% white areas, yes, Pittsburgh's "ranking" would change significantly... regardless of Hispanic/lack of Hispanic population numbers.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by pj3000

If we "right-sized" the Pittsburgh MSA to remove the far-flung 50-60 mile away, non-related, 100% white areas, yes, Pittsburgh's "ranking" would change significantly...

i VERY highly doubt that.

the entire pittsburgh MSA is home to only 196,784 black people.

even if they were all crammed into allegheny county (and they are not), that would still only make allegheny county ~16% black.

the simple fact of the matter is that the pittsburgh area, however you want to slice it, is one of the whitest major urban centers in the nation.

that is neither good nor bad, it just is.





if/when the CB ever gets off its ass and finally releases the UA data, you will see that pittsburgh remains one of the whitest major (1M+) "metro areas" in the nation.

it might in fact still be #1 on that score.

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

i VERY highly doubt that.

and if/when the CB ever gets off its ass and finally releases UA data, you will see that pittsburgh remains one of the whitest major "metro areas" in the nation.

I'm not saying the Pittsburgh MSA wouldn't remain in the upper tier of the whitest metros, even if only UA were used.

But I am saying that removing some of the unrealistic 5,000 sq mile area of the MSA would produce significant results in the non-white population %, greater than if the Hispanic population was larger and added to the MSA.

The black percentages listed above in non-City of Pittsburgh municipalities bear that out.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by pj3000

I'm not saying the Pittsburgh MSA wouldn't remain in the upper tier of the whitest metros, even if only UA were used.

But I am saying that removing some of the unrealistic 5,000 sq mile area of the MSA would produce significant results in the non-white population %, greater than if the Hispanic population was larger and added to the MSA.

The black percentages listed above in non-City of Pittsburgh municipalities bear that out.

sure, some numbers might change a couple of points up or down, but the relative standings wouldn't be substantively different, so MSA, while FAR from perfect, is "good enough" for this exercise IMO.

[mhays]

Yeah, it looks like it was #56 out of 56 no matter how you cut it.

[edale]

Originally Posted by westak

The Majority of Clevelands black population lives in the suburbs. I think Cleveland is slightly different than the other metros mentioned.

As of 2020, the same is true for Cincinnati. I'd imagine this is also true for St. Louis, since it too has small municipal boundaries.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by westak

The Majority of Clevelands black population lives in the suburbs. I think Cleveland is slightly different than the other metros mentioned.

yes, 56.0% of the cleveland MSA's black population lives outside the city limits of cleveland proper.

however, with continuing black flight in many cities, that situation is getting more common, especially for MSA's with geographically small central cities, like cleveland.

even some large land area cities like chicago, philly, and detroit are at the tipping point now.


% of MSA black population living outside of central city limits:

DC: 81.6%
st. louis: 74.4%
pittsburgh: 65.3%
boston: 61.9%
baltimore: 58.1%
cleveland: 56.0%
cincinnati: 54.0%
philly: 50.3%
chicago: 49.1%
detroit: 48.2%
new york: 40.7%

[Crawford]

In most of these cases, the black population isn't growing, and just partially relocated to adjacent geographies right outside city limits. So it's the same difference. There's a heavily black geography, but it's a relatively small share of the overall metro population.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Crawford

In most of these cases, the black population isn't growing, and just partially relocated to adjacent geographies right outside city limits. So it's the same difference. There's a heavily black geography, but it's a relatively small share of the overall metro population.

right, none of those metro areas are seeing fast growing black populations overall*, but the significant shift from central city out to the suburbs in all of them is very much different from two generations ago when "black" and "inner city" meant the same thing.

in most of those legacy metro areas, black people are now more likely to live out in the burbs than in the central city.

that is a newish thing for most places in the north.


(*) in fact, chicago, detroit, cleveland, and st. louis actually saw a net decrease in total black population at the MSA level from 2010 - 2020.

[goat314]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Yeah, I was aware they were very Black metro areas, but I thought Whites would still be above 50%.

As it's the case of all US states, I assumed all US metro areas have more Whites than Blacks, but it seems there are more Blacks than Whites in Memphis metro area.




Ocasio-Cortez, at least from my perspective, looks heavily Indigenous. In Brazil she would be seen as Mixed, although her phenotype is not that common in Brazil. Eva Longoria looks Spaniard/southern Italian though.

There have always been large, majority Black areas in America for centuries. Especially along the Southeastern coast and Mississippi Delta region.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by goat314

There have always been large, majority Black areas in America for centuries. Especially along the Southeastern coast and Mississippi Delta region.

I think he meant in urban areas. There have been majority black states throughout a large part of U.S. history, but the black American population was very rural until the 20th century industrialization boom.

[sopas ej]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Agreed, though even people Eva Longoria and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez look white to me.

AOC to me looks Afro-Latina.

[goat314]

Originally Posted by pj3000

Right, I get it. To me "metro" means metropolitan... which signifies city, surrounding suburbs, and neighboring communities which are developed/contiguous/closely connected to/largely function with the city core.

Basically, urban area, like you mention... and not some distant, disconnected, largely unrelated, and entirely rural area 50+ miles from the core. You're just not going to find many non-white people in these places in the northern United States. There are simply VERY, VERY few black rural areas in the northern US.

Relative lack of Latinos in Pittsburgh, Cincy certainly plays a role, but it's more due to their outsized MSAs for their core populations. There is absolutely no reason for Pittsburgh and Cincinnati to have the same roughly 5,000 sq mi MSAs as Philadelphia does. Nor St. Louis to have a nearly 8,500 sq mi MSA... it's just stupid.

I agree, it makes St. Louis msa density appear much less than it really is when you double the size of the MSA to add 100,000 people.

[goat314]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I think he meant in urban areas. There have been majority black states throughout a large part of U.S. history, but the black American population was very rural until the 20th century industrialization boom.

Well New Orleans, Memphis, DC, Baltimore, etc. have always had large urban populations.

[goat314]

Originally Posted by edale

As of 2020, the same is true for Cincinnati. I'd imagine this is also true for St. Louis, since it too has small municipal boundaries.

A majority of St. Louis' black population has been suburban for decades now.

[goat314]

Originally Posted by sopas ej

AOC to me looks Afro-Latina.

She is Caribbean Hispanic, so that makes sense.

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

sure, some numbers might change a couple of points up or down, but the relative standings wouldn't be substantively different, so MSA, while FAR from perfect, is "good enough" for this exercise IMO.

Originally Posted by mhays

Yeah, it looks like it was #56 out of 56 no matter how you cut it.

The relative standings might not differ much (if at all) with a "right-sizing". Though, it would be interesting to see a corrected, realistic metro area for Pittsburgh (and for other cities as well).

Pittsburgh is just not as big as its 5,300 square mi and 2.32M population numbers say it is.

So it depends on how you cut it... though I fully understand (and experience) how white the surrounding counties are. Large portions of Pittsburgh's 5,000 square mile MSA should be cut off and there should be more Micro Areas in the region of SW Pennsylvania... similarly to how Micro areas surround Cleveland and Buffalo in their regions. The Pittsburgh MSA should actually be cut down to include Micro Areas: Greensburg in Westmoreland County, Butler in Butler County, and Uniontown in Fayette County.

[SAN Man]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I think he meant in urban areas. There have been majority black states throughout a large part of U.S. history, but the black American population was very rural until the 20th century industrialization boom.

Do you know which states and at what time period?

In the 2020 census, the state that comes the closest to majority black is Mississippi and that is only 36.6%.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by pj3000

Pittsburgh is just not as big as its 5,300 square mi and 2.32M population numbers say it is.

yes. the same is also true for the majority of MSAs.

the CB's dumb MSA county mash-up game makes little sense for most urban centers around the nation.


(don't even get me started on the absurdity of some CSA's

chicago's CSA is now over 10,600 sq. miles!!! - larger than 9 US states.

roughly 3/4 of that land area is literally cornfields)




but as has been reiterated MANY times now, MSA is the best we have at the moment, and given that it over-inflates most cities (to varying degrees, of course), it's good enough for this exercise because, while some individual values might change by a few percentage points, the overall gist of the list would not substantively change if we ran it with UA data instead.

if we cut off all of those predominately white outlying rural areas from pittsburgh's MSA, its "NH white alone" percentage might drop from 82% down to 77%.

big deal, it's still one of the very whitest major metro areas either way.