Texas population boom fuels growing backlash

[JManc]

Originally Posted by Trae

Yeah but it didnt prove your point. Look at that chart. Texas gains across the board in the income range, going from working class to middle class. Do you have the raw numbers for each income bracket? Especially for those making between $50k to $140k annually as the chart shows thats the biggest chunk of people moving from CA to Texas.

If not how can you say Texas is gaining mostly blue collar workers? Besides those are nice middle class salaries. And Houston blue collar isnt normal blue collar anyway. People make six figures down there with HS diplomas and some certs. Especially with all the high income professional growth happening the last 2-3 years. Remote work made it easier. I just had a colleague move from Oakland to Houston so he can keep his Bay Area salary but own a large home in a nice neighborhood with great schools for his family. Many cases like this.

Also think it's interesting how you assume Texas will go blue in 2028. After 08 the popular thing to say was Texas is going blue next election. First it was 2012, then no wait 2016, then no wait 2020, etc. California was far better when there was balance in its politics, so why do people want Texas to be one way?

Balance is best.



DFW is the same way as Austin. Much high income growth with the amount of relocations they had. Houston doesnt receive as many domestic migrants though.

My job is in the Bay Area but I'm still in Houston (remote) but have to move out there shortly but planning on coming back as soon as I can simply for the cost of living. We have no income tax and my pay goes a long way here.

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by Trae

Yeah but it didnt prove your point. Look at that chart. Texas gains across the board in the income range, going from working class to middle class. Do you have the raw numbers for each income bracket? Especially for those making between $50k to $140k annually as the chart shows thats the biggest chunk of people moving from CA to Texas.

If not how can you say Texas is gaining mostly blue collar workers? Besides those are nice middle class salaries. And Houston blue collar isnt normal blue collar anyway. People make six figures down there with HS diplomas and some certs. Especially with all the high income professional growth happening the last 2-3 years. Remote work made it easier. I just had a colleague move from Oakland to Houston so he can keep his Bay Area salary but own a large home in a nice neighborhood with great schools for his family. Many cases like this.

Also think it's interesting how you assume Texas will go blue in 2028. After 08 the popular thing to say was Texas is going blue next election. First it was 2012, then no wait 2016, then no wait 2020, etc. California was far better when there was balance in its politics, so why do people want Texas to be one way?

Balance is best.



DFW is the same way as Austin. Much high income growth with the amount of relocations they had. Houston doesnt receive as many domestic migrants though.

The chart is darker for lower income workers..
In 2021 chart California didn't Lose 100k workers, it gained.
It lost heavily low income workers.
If Texas is getting the most Californians by raw numbers, it's likely getting mostly low income.

Countless articles are about California leaving for cost reasons. It would only make sense low income workers are likely to be leaving.

[jmecklenborg]

We have Texas to thank for the ascendancy of Bill Clinton, since Ross Perot managed to split the Republican vote and foil Bush's 1992 reelection campaign.

[ATXboom]

Originally Posted by AviationGuy

Someone was commenting on politics in the state. Demographically, we haven't been a red state in quite some time. But that doesn't matter when a small percentage of people vote. My hope is that the many thousands of young, high tech people moving in will be more inclined to vote and finally change the elections. The kind of people moving in, at least the many I've become acquainted with, can't stand the extreme right wing politics at the state level here. If they don't vote, though, nothing will change, because the right wingers in smaller cities and rural areas vote in large numbers and high percentages, and will continue to overwhelm the rest of us if overall voting doesn't increase. The large cities here are already blue, as shown clearly by election maps (e.g., from 2020), but that hasn't been enough to change the elections for statewide offices, many congressional district elections, and presidential elections. Some day, probably, but probably not soon.

The voting districts are gerrymandered to the point where it's rigged for the right.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by AviationGuy

Some of our suburbs have become less red, or even blue, over time. Plano, a wealthy suburb of Dallas, was largely blue in 2020, as was Fort Bend County near Houston. Parts of Cypress have become less red, notably the Bridgeland area, where my nephew lives. Some Austin suburbs that were previously solid red have become blue. I don't have much hope for places like The Woodlands, though.

my point was that the two big texas MSAs are, on balance, WAY more purple than most of the other large MSAs in the nation.


2020 presidential election vote margin for 3M+ MSAs:

SF: +60.9
DC: +47.9
Seattle: +38.1
Boston: +36.9
LA: +35.7
Chicago: +32.3
Philly: +30.0
NYC: +28.1
Denver: +25.8
San Diego: +23.3
Minneapolis: +19.8
Miami: +16.3
Atlanta: +15.6
Detroit: +13.7
Riverside: +9.4

Dallas: +1.2
Houston: +1.1
Phoenix: +0.6
Tampa: +2.6


those 19 metro areas had an average blue margin of +22.8 in the 2020 election.

if the dallas and houston MSAs were as blue as the average large US MSA, texas would've been blue in a landslide.

even if they had just been as blue as metro detoit, that still would've pulled texas over to the the blue column.

but on average, their burbs leaned way more red than the burbs of most other big city MSAs.

[ATXboom]

Originally Posted by LA21st

Do you have data for the opposite?
There are articles that most people who leave California are priced out, yes. Many are blue collar Hispanics.
Do some high paid tech workers leave? Sure. But those aren't typical jobs in either state. Both states have more blue collar, do they not?

Where's the data affluent orange county people are leaving for Texas?

LOL blue collar workers are not snapping up $1M+ houses in one day... this is IN the city though. Far flung suburbs or exurbs are defininately growing via blue collar-particularly other parts of the state outiside the Austin Metro. City of Austin is just a posh overgrown ski resort town. I think where there's a disconnect is state migration vs migration to Austin proper. Austin proper is definately a well to do crowd. At a state level its blue.

[sopas ej]

Originally Posted by The New York Lion

I doubt this.

The trends among Latinos do not bode well for the Democratic Party.

They care more about the economy and are not fans of the social policies. This is evidenced by the numbers in the Rio Grande Valley and Florida in the 2020 election.

You can't paint all Latinos the same; they're a very diverse group of people.

In Los Angeles anyway, many Latinos lean left and are all about better working conditions, better wages, educational opportunities, etc.---things that Republicans and conservatives don't like.

I've never been to Florida, but from what it seems to me, many Cubans/Cuban-Americans lean right-wing/Republican because they're against anything that resembles socialism---just like the Vietnamese community in Orange County. They tend to vote Republican for what I think is the same reason. Some are very adamant about it; in fact, some years ago, a shop owner in Orange County, who is Vietnamese, got some flack (and I think even death threats) for displaying the current flag of Vietnam, vs. the South Vietnamese flag that many in that OC community tend to display---the flag of a country that doesn't even exist anymore.

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

We have Texas to thank for the ascendancy of Bill Clinton, since Ross Perot managed to split the Republican vote and foil Bush's 1992 reelection campaign.

???

What are you talking about, Bush won Texas, because of the electoral college system we have. Saying Bush lost to Clinton because of Ross Perot would be like saying Hillary lost to Trump because of Jill Stein.

Can you imagine a 2nd Bush I term??? Yikes!

[ATXboom]

Originally Posted by sopas ej

???

What are you talking about, Bush won Texas, because of the electoral college system we have. Saying Bush lost to Clinton because of Ross Perot would be like saying Hillary lost to Trump because of Jill Stein.

Can you imagine a 2nd Bush I term??? Yikes!

Inflation has to cover the debt of wars... the budget suck is real and massive.

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by sopas ej

I've never been to Florida, but from what it seems to me, many Cubans/Cuban-Americans lean right-wing/Republican because they're against anything that resembles socialism---just like the Vietnamese community in Orange County. They tend to vote Republican for what I think is the same reason.

It's more of a generational thing. Cuban-Americans in their 40s and younger are nowhere near as solidly Republican as their parents' generation.

To my in-laws who fled Cuba: Democrat = Left = Communism = Castro

It's very simplistic, but obviously endures. So you still have a strong bloc of aging, but highly-reliable Republican voters in South Florida particularly.

Originally Posted by sopas ej

???

What are you talking about, Bush won Texas, because of the electoral college system we have. Saying Bush lost to Clinton because of Ross Perot would be like saying Hillary lost to Trump because of Jill Stein.

Can you imagine a 2nd Bush I term??? Yikes!

Ross Perot was a Texan. He caused the Republican vote split, which contributed to GHW Bush losing. I think that's what he's referring to.

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by pj3000

It's more of a generational thing. Cuban-Americans in their 40s and younger are nowhere near as solidly Republican as their parents' generation.

To my in-laws who fled Cuba: Democrat = Left = Communism = Castro

It's very simplistic, but obviously endures. So you still have a strong bloc of aging, but highly-reliable Republican voters in South Florida particularly.

That sounds similar to the Vietnamese American thing. A lot of my Viet friends' parents (first wave of immigrants) are conservative and anti-Democrat/communist and hardcore MAGAts but the younger ones are more progressive and liberal.

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by homebucket

That sounds similar to the Vietnamese American thing. A lot of my Viet friends' parents (first wave of immigrants) are conservative and anti-Democrat/communist and hardcore MAGAts but the younger ones are more progressive and liberal.

I think Cubans drifted Republican when the Bay of Pigs invasion failed. Kennedy was president then, so they blamed him and the Dems. Then, Southern whites began fleeing Dems once the Civil Rights bill passed, and the flight accelerated when Reagan was elected as Southern Dems politicians switched parties...I sure hope we can do away with the electoral college and use the popular vote one of these days...

[Crawford]

TX has really shitty voter turnout, especially among Hispanics. Yeah, TX Hispanics aren't as Dem as in NY and CA, but they still lean Dem, or at least moderate.

They need a Stacey Abrams. Probably a Hispanic Stacey Abrams.

Long-term, I don't see how TX won't be at least purple. I think something like 19% of public school students are non-Hispanic white. TX is the second youngest state in the nation, with only Mormon Utah slightly younger. TX has big Hispanic families, with bigger family sizes than Hispanics in NY and CA. Also booming Asian populations in metro areas. TX will be an overwhelmingly non-Anglo state in the coming years.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Long-term, I don't see how TX won't be at least purple. I think something like 19% of public school students are non-Hispanic white. TX is the second youngest state in the nation, with only Mormon Utah slightly younger. TX has big Hispanic families, with bigger family sizes than Hispanics in NY and CA. Also booming Asian populations in metro areas. TX will be an overwhelmingly non-Anglo state in the coming years.

that presupposes that racial/ethnic diversity patterns always line up with voting habits.

dallas (42.8%) and especially houston (33.7%) already have some of the lowest NH white shares of the 19 largest MSAs on my list above, and yet they're still way down at the bottom of it.

something is different about texas.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

that presupposes that racial/ethnic diversity patterns always line up with voting habits.

Nonwhite Texans vote far more Dem than white Texans. Increases in nonwhite share should shift the state more purple. Not liberal, but competitive.

White Texans, outside of a few urban enclaves, are overwhelmingly conservative.

[iheartthed]

I doubt there are a ton of people moving to TX from NYC. Maybe a few tech types went to Austin, but I doubt it was the flood that this thread seems to make it sound like. NYC also has quite a few Texans living here. NYC probably receives more Texans than it donates NYers to Texas.

[Bailey]

Originally Posted by JManc

I moved here from NY but everyone else can get the fuck out.

Actually, Houston was CREATED by two brothers from NYC and my whole family came here from NYC so you can keep your opinion. I like seeing New Yorkers in Houston!

[JManc]

Originally Posted by Bailey

Actually, Houston was CREATED by two brothers from NYC and my whole family came here from NYC so you can keep your opinion. I like seeing New Yorkers in Houston!

The Allen Brothers were from Sullivan, a town in upstate NY (halfway between Syracuse and Utica). Houston owes its existence to another Upstate (Buffalo) NY'er, Willis Carrier. He invented the air-conditioner.

Originally Posted by Crawford

Nonwhite Texans vote far more Dem than white Texans. Increases in nonwhite share should shift the state more purple. Not liberal, but competitive.

Hispanics are all over the board politically though. Probably as much as whites and they are moving further to the right.

[ChiSoxRox]

I'll pass on joining the flood. There are four reasons I have no desire to live in Texas: June, July, August, and Greg Abbott.

I prefer a snowy winter, but judging by the census shifts, that is literally an unpopular opinion.

[Bailey]

Originally Posted by JManc

The Allen Brothers were from Sullivan, a town in upstate NY (halfway between Syracuse and Utica). Houston owes its existence to another Upstate (Buffalo) NY'er, Willis Carrier. He invented the air-conditioner.

Born in Sullivan but John Kirby and his Augustus Allen had moved to, and were businessmen from, New York City before moving to Mexico and then becoming Texians.

He started advertising their new city, Houston, to NYC soon after Texas won their Independence hoping to gain from the National popularity of Sam Houston.

William Marsh Rice was from Massachusetts but somehow ended up murdered in New York City. I don't know the full story but somehow the University he created, Rice University, owned Yankee Stadium for a little while so there is another NYC link plus we all know the NY Yankees are a horrible baseball team that has yet to beat the Houston Astros in the postseason...ha.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by pj3000

Ross Perot was a Texan. He caused the Republican vote split, which contributed to GHW Bush losing. I think that's what he's referring to.

Correct.

Some writers/professors have claimed that Perot didn't actually foil the election because exit polling found a surprising 50/50 split party for self-proclaimed Perot voters. Accepting that as a tidy explanation omits several other factors, one being that the incumbent Bush had not one but two people beating up on him - Perot and Clinton weren't wasting much energy attacking one-another.