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  #1181  
Old Posted Mar 1, 2020, 4:52 PM
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Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown View Post
It has nothing to do with the death rate itself, per se.

It's that massive parts of the economy are at risk due to supply shocks.

About 20% of my company's revenue is generated from products made in China. We are projecting, even if the factories start operating at full capacity soon and the ports re-open (which they have not), that we will run out of this product in April. That is because we can't ship this product air and it must go on a boat, which has a 35 day transit time. (That's just port to port).

So, we have a risk of losing 20% of our revenue for a period of time until we can get replenishment product.

There are thousands of companies managing the same risk right now.

On top of that, the virus itself has not spread as expected, but as it does, there will be a ripple effect in terms of tourism travel etc. Think about what just happened in Italy. Literally, most travel has halted to and from Northern Italy (Lombary, Milan).

These shocks together will have a very real effect on GDP which risks causing a recession. It might be a blip sure, and the markets have probably over corrected, but one could argue they were overly optimistic in spite of luke warm global data as it were.

From my past experience, when people feel the need start explaining all the reasons why we aren't in a bubble, it usually means we are in a bubble.

My gut tells me Philly will be more insulated than other regions in part because what I see in the data in terms of labor force growth. Meaning, there are lots of people moving to Philly and SE PA in general at the moment for some reason and that in and of itself needs to be accomodated, through new construction etc.
This. Oil prices are dropping rapidly and that is never a good sign for investors and for things to come. Mortgage rates keep falling to lows we haven't see in years and I am seeing over lending and also falling real estate prices (even in our area, I am amazed at some of the decline and how long desirable houses are staying on the market now), the auto industry is having some major issues, you name it at the moment. I am not a doomsday-er by any means and some of what we are seeing is correction for over inflated prices but I would be prepared for a very real ripple effect and those with the big money are definitely getting skittish.
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  #1182  
Old Posted Mar 1, 2020, 5:09 PM
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Cheap money from the FED...

The other big issue with oil is supply and demand...demand is being affected now so supply is up and that drives down prices.

And a big problem with supply chain for other commodities because most materials for just about any commodity you can think of starts in China.
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  #1183  
Old Posted Mar 1, 2020, 6:57 PM
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Coronavirus most definitely shouldn’t be taken lightly - it’s already a massive disruption and is likely to get worse. I have plans to travel to northern Italy in the fall but I’m pretty damn glad I got trip insurance now. We’ll see.

But to get back to the topic at hand, very excited to see CHOP expanding rapidly. These big dollar projects are great for the region and create a ton of well-paying jobs. You love to see it.
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  #1184  
Old Posted Mar 2, 2020, 2:22 AM
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Originally Posted by iheartphilly View Post
Will building 4 on the map be demolished and built from ground up? The price tag makes me believe so.
Yes, that's the plan. That's the Wood Center, and the plan is to demolish it and build the 22 story tower in its place, which will become the new main entrance in Osler Circle. The Hub for Collaboration has to finish first, because they're moving offices from the Wood Center into it, then they can start demolition.
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  #1185  
Old Posted Mar 2, 2020, 8:23 AM
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Originally Posted by iheartphilly View Post
^
Cheap money from the FED...

The other big issue with oil is supply and demand...demand is being affected now so supply is up and that drives down prices.

And a big problem with supply chain for other commodities because most materials for just about any commodity you can think of starts in China.
China's building boom has certainly effected the price of 'stuff' used in commercial construction, like steel, but very little of the actual stuff comes from China. Maybe the lighter gauge wiring and piping, but much of the steel and concrete and glass is north american made.
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  #1186  
Old Posted Mar 2, 2020, 1:44 PM
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Originally Posted by City Wide View Post
China's building boom has certainly effected the price of 'stuff' used in commercial construction, like steel, but very little of the actual stuff comes from China. Maybe the lighter gauge wiring and piping, but much of the steel and concrete and glass is north american made.
Oh, I think the context of my response was beyond just the construction industry. But, for the construction industry, China is the largest producer of iron ore. Yes, they are also the largest importer and consumer of iron ore too. Thus, they are the top producer of steel in the world. US Tariffs on Chinese steel has shifted the use of US steel back in our favor now.

Also, I believe they are also the largest producer of copper ore.

Last edited by iheartphilly; Mar 2, 2020 at 2:30 PM.
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  #1187  
Old Posted Mar 5, 2020, 12:57 PM
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Cool 1

Any updates on construction? Also I'm new here so hello. I'm pretty sure 3001 JFK is starting soon
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  #1188  
Old Posted Mar 5, 2020, 8:17 PM
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hello right back at you. I'm not aware construction has started at this point but some have said IIRC June might be the magic month.
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  #1189  
Old Posted Mar 12, 2020, 3:41 PM
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Amicus opens UCity R&D tower, calls Philly the ‘Cradle of Cures’



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Amicus Therapeutics, a publicly traded biopharmaceutical firm focused on rare diseases, has moved nearly 100 R&D professionals over the last year into 3675 Market St., in Philadelphia’s University City, and plans to add another 100.

Crowley also calls Philadelphia “the Cradle of Cures,” a label that might possibly stick better than “Cellicon Valley” and the other titles that the city’s bio boosters have pushed in recent years.

Amicus’ abstract logo, Crowley says, recalls both the Liberty Bell, and a DNA double helix. “We’ve been hiring pretty aggressively,” he added.

He held open house last week after pasting his sign atop what’s now the Amicus building. “Philadelphia is a magnet for gene technology and gene therapy,” Crowley told me afterward. “You have great, great talent. The gene therapy center at Penn, with Dr. Jim Wilson, is the world’s leading research center. They are our partners," and are just a few blocks apart across the Penn campus.

His current company Amicus — it employs 600, in all — has taken the top three floors at 3675 because “the future of research and development, in rare diseases and beyond, is Philadelphia,” Crowley told me Thursday.

The Philly biotech scene, Crowley says, "reminds me of Kendall Square in Boston 15 years ago. So much was happening then. Now it’s so built up you can’t find space up there. "
Read more here:
https://www.inquirer.com/business/ph...-20200310.html
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  #1190  
Old Posted Mar 12, 2020, 3:46 PM
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  #1191  
Old Posted Mar 12, 2020, 10:52 PM
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Anyone know if we are seeing corona-related slowdowns in construction or supply chain issues in this area?
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  #1192  
Old Posted Mar 13, 2020, 1:45 AM
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PLEASE PEOPLE, DON'T CONTAMINATE THIS FORUM WITH OFF TOPIC CORONAVIRUS DISCUSSIONS. MOVE IT TO ONE OF THE 1000s OF SEPARATE INTERNET THREADS.
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  #1193  
Old Posted Mar 13, 2020, 8:28 AM
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PLEASE PEOPLE, DON'T CONTAMINATE THIS FORUM WITH OFF TOPIC CORONAVIRUS DISCUSSIONS. MOVE IT TO ONE OF THE 1000s OF SEPARATE INTERNET THREADS.
Unfortunately there is virtually no realm of discussion where COVID-19 is off-topic. Its impact is tightly interwoven with all the things. If you think otherwise, you haven't been paying attention.
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  #1194  
Old Posted Mar 13, 2020, 2:57 PM
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^Agree. The original question was very specific as to construction and supply issues.
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  #1195  
Old Posted Mar 13, 2020, 3:24 PM
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I'll put a positive spin on it. I think we have to sit back and look at the development over this long ~10 year cycle and be very happy with the progress and the future. You cannot overlook that, whatever impact this has. Philly's future is cemented around the Eds & Meds sector and that is not going anywhere.
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  #1196  
Old Posted Mar 13, 2020, 3:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Nova08 View Post
I'll put a positive spin on it. I think we have to sit back and look at the development over this long ~10 year cycle and be very happy with the progress and the future. You cannot overlook that, whatever impact this has. Philly's future is cemented around the Eds & Meds sector and that is not going anywhere.
I'm so impressed with Philly and how it has completely transformed over these last 10 years. Whenever things are doing well we all think about a slow down coming. Let's all hope this is not the case.
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  #1197  
Old Posted Mar 13, 2020, 4:29 PM
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I'm so impressed with Philly and how it has completely transformed over these last 10 years. Whenever things are doing well we all think about a slow down coming. Let's all hope this is not the case.
I was traveling back to Philly after a few days of work out of town. Coming into the city eastbound from the airport is kind of incredible. Philly looks amazing. I was already visualizing the new towers at CHoP, Laurel and River Walk. Once SY is built, the effect will be staggering.
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  #1198  
Old Posted Mar 13, 2020, 10:41 PM
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PLEASE PEOPLE, DON'T CONTAMINATE THIS FORUM WITH OFF TOPIC CORONAVIRUS DISCUSSIONS. MOVE IT TO ONE OF THE 1000s OF SEPARATE INTERNET THREADS.
Uh, I was specifically asking about construction slowdowns as a result of coronavirus. And it is not possible for it to be "off topic". We are in a state and national emergency. Schools, gyms, and non-essential retail are closed in Montco and parts of Philly. And I assume the projects we are following are impacted too.
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  #1199  
Old Posted Mar 15, 2020, 1:36 AM
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^^^^^^^
personally in my little corner of the construction world I haven't seen or heard of any slowdowns or not being able to get product. My guess is that the owners of the supply chain and developers are happy to keep things moving, because they can protect themselves even while the rest of the 'chain' keeps moving along. But I wonder at what point the unions might step in and act to try to protect their members from un-needed contact. This is such a fluid issue its hard to even imagine where things might be in a week; just look at the changes in the last week.
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  #1200  
Old Posted Mar 15, 2020, 3:09 PM
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Originally Posted by City Wide View Post
^^^^^^^
personally in my little corner of the construction world I haven't seen or heard of any slowdowns or not being able to get product. My guess is that the owners of the supply chain and developers are happy to keep things moving, because they can protect themselves even while the rest of the 'chain' keeps moving along. But I wonder at what point the unions might step in and act to try to protect their members from un-needed contact. This is such a fluid issue its hard to even imagine where things might be in a week; just look at the changes in the last week.
There seems to be an impact, but not so much on actual construction. Yet, anyway. From some local developers and others in the field in this area.

"...complicated question. We are business as usual in construction but are facing two significant headwinds. The supply chain of material from China (rebar, toilets, faucets, vanities, etc.) is broken resulting in a higher cost of goods and a lack of critical products. Of greater concern, the flow of capital has been compromised (hopefully only temporarily). Title companies, architectural offices, inspectors, and bankers are home which makes requesting funds for completed work difficult. Similarly, licenses and inspections decided to update their computers this week. Permits are not being issued and inspections of job sites are happening at a reduced clip."

"I work for a tile company, and we were CRAZY on Friday. All the GCs are trying to get their orders buttoned up before life has to be put in hold."

" I have three listings coming up that all have some level of work being done to be ready for sale, and the folks doing the work are glad to have work to do and keep getting paid, as they only get paid when they are working. It's generally 1-3 workers in a property at a time, and they are only exposed to each other, so basically no more risk than being at home with family, so long as none of the folks on site have any symptoms. It's financially and emotionally comforting for them. I work from home half the time usually, but my entire team at Compass is now completely work from home. We'll have to see when to actually start listing these properties, depending on how things progress through the month. We're avoiding holding open houses, and instituting precautions for individual showings."
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