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  #2161  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2020, 1:28 PM
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No Int'l Service from ORD

Haven't been around for some time but had to see what was being discussed on the virus. Along with the coming shocks to IL and Chicago's economy, my jaw dropped when seeing United and American's route cuts - they have prioritized all of their hubs except ORD. I wonder what all this means and what was Chicago at the end of the day for them, just a connector hub? There are ZERO intercontinental flights from U.S. carriers out of O'Hare (not counting United's lame daily to Cancun - Caribbean and Mexico not considered intercontinental). We are literally the same as St. Louis or Indianapolis right now. Yes, some of the other foreign carriers are still coming through. But this is unreal.


These are the only long-haul routes American, Delta, Hawaiian and United plan to fly in April
https://thepointsguy.com/news/april-...ited-airlines/
The Points Guy, March 18, 2020

American Airlines:
  • Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) – London Heathrow (LHR) and Tokyo Narita (NRT)
  • Miami (MIA) – London Heathrow



United Airlines:
  • Houston Intercontinental (IAH) – São Paulo Guarulhos
  • Newark Liberty (EWR) – Brussels (BRU), Delhi (DEL), Frankfurt (FRA), London Heathrow, Mumbai (BOM), Tel Aviv (TLV), and Tokyo Narita
  • San Francisco (SFO) – Melbourne (MEL), Osaka Kansai, Singapore (SIN), Sydney, Tokyo Haneda and Tokyo Narita
  • Washington Dulles (IAD) – London Heathrow

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  #2162  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2020, 1:47 PM
OrdoSeclorum OrdoSeclorum is offline
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Originally Posted by chiphile View Post
I wonder what all this means and what was Chicago at the end of the day for them, just a connector hub? Yes, some of the other foreign carriers are still coming through. But this is unreal.
ORD is an airport with great travel distances to most of the USA, huge capacity and a large local population to serve. Right now, none of those things are advantages. If your goal is to send a few half-full planes over the ocean once in a while, I'd sure pick the route that used the least gas. I don't think things are different at ATL, DEN and LAX.
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  #2163  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2020, 2:01 PM
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Originally Posted by OrdoSeclorum View Post
ORD is an airport with great travel distances to most of the USA, huge capacity and a large local population to serve. Right now, none of those things are advantages. If your goal is to send a few half-full planes over the ocean once in a while, I'd sure pick the route that used the least gas. I don't think things are different at ATL, DEN and LAX.
Or, you could have clicked on the story to see ATL will still have 8 long-haul routes and will now be one of the most connected global hubs in the country and everyone in the middle of the country will find it advantageous to connect through there, or that Detroit will still have 3 long-haul routes?
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  #2164  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2020, 3:03 PM
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Those routes shown are only for US carriers and may change. United Airlines puts antique aircraft on the Chicago international routes and always puts priority on the coasts with better equipment and international routes during normal times, so why should that change now. AA on the other hand favors DFW its main hub as does Delta and ATL.

Last edited by F1 Tommy; Mar 19, 2020 at 3:20 PM.
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  #2165  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2020, 6:57 PM
emathias emathias is offline
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The potential shortage of ventilators is also a choke point. I don't think they're going to start encouraging people to be in public gatherings for a long while yet, because they can't manufacture another 100,000 ventilators overnight.

And a potential drug? Don't forget that the common cold is also a corona virus, and there's never been a know effective treatment for that. I wouldn't hold my breath. Buckle up, because we're in for a long ride.

My question to those with a background in economics is, is this market downturn short lived? Or is it years in the making? And will we continue this free-fall for the rest on the year? I know it sounds insensitive to say this, as many people are losing their jobs and businesses. But it's very frustrating to watch my net worth hemorrhage away.
The common cold isn't nearly as serious. There isn't as much incentive nor interest in solving non-serious medical problems. There is some drug process for SARS 1, and with this being so widespread, that related research is being applied and accelerated to this SARS 2.

As for predictions what this downturn looks like, it's a fools errand because they're is nothing like it to base predictions on and we have no sense yet if how long the causes will last. We know the cause of this downturn, and can predict that when those are resolved things will then start to turn normal, but we don't yet know when they will be resolved. It has some similarities to the 2008 crisis, but also many differences, so even that isn't predictive.
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  #2166  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2020, 8:11 PM
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Atlanta is obviously a winner because of the presence of CDC - international scientists, doctors, and policymakers need to be able to travel during the crisis. It has nothing to do with dick-measuring among airports or business competitiveness. DC has similar situation.

Beyond that, I imagine the reduced network structure is designed to cut back on redundancy. Why fly a plane to Chicago, smack-dab in the middle of the US, when you can land your plane just inside US borders at a coastal or southern hub and force travelers to connect to a domestic flight? Under normal circumstances there are advantages for airlines to have nonstop flights, but under this skeleton network there are zero advantages. This seems to be the rationale for United's service despite being headquartered here.

There are also considerations with where the mechanics are to service and turn over the long-haul birds, I'm guessing American has the best facility for maintenance and the most pre-existing connections at DFW so they are continuing that service. Detroit's a weird one, but I guess it's just too important as a Delta hub.

Think about the CTA's Night Owl service - it gets rid of some direct service from point to point, but preserves service across the city by forcing riders to transfer.
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  #2167  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2020, 9:49 PM
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Originally Posted by ardecila View Post
Atlanta is obviously a winner because of the presence of CDC - international scientists, doctors, and policymakers need to be able to travel during the crisis. It has nothing to do with dick-measuring among airports or business competitiveness. DC has similar situation.

Beyond that, I imagine the reduced network structure is designed to cut back on redundancy. Why fly a plane to Chicago, smack-dab in the middle of the US, when you can land your plane just inside US borders at a coastal or southern hub and force travelers to connect to a domestic flight? Under normal circumstances there are advantages for airlines to have nonstop flights, but under this skeleton network there are zero advantages. This seems to be the rationale for United's service despite being headquartered here.

There are also considerations with where the mechanics are to service and turn over the long-haul birds, I'm guessing American has the best facility for maintenance and the most pre-existing connections at DFW so they are continuing that service. Detroit's a weird one, but I guess it's just too important as a Delta hub.

Think about the CTA's Night Owl service - it gets rid of some direct service from point to point, but preserves service across the city by forcing riders to transfer.
No. Although United calls Chicago their main hub their priorities are obviously somewhere else after the merger. They have companies locked into contracts and have nothing to worry about in Chicago.

DFW is a lot less important than Chicago in every way, and that includes to the airlines. Don't forget Chicago will still have other international carriers still coming to ORD. United is really dropping the ball in Chicago due to lack of true competition. AA does not have the same access to Chicago business that UAL does due to the "hometown" attitude.

We will have to wait and see, but the whole thing may be mute if they stop all flights.
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  #2168  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2020, 12:59 PM
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Originally Posted by ardecila View Post
Atlanta is obviously a winner because of the presence of CDC - international scientists, doctors, and policymakers need to be able to travel during the crisis. It has nothing to do with dick-measuring among airports or business competitiveness. DC has similar situation.

Beyond that, I imagine the reduced network structure is designed to cut back on redundancy. Why fly a plane to Chicago, smack-dab in the middle of the US, when you can land your plane just inside US borders at a coastal or southern hub and force travelers to connect to a domestic flight? Under normal circumstances there are advantages for airlines to have nonstop flights, but under this skeleton network there are zero advantages. This seems to be the rationale for United's service despite being headquartered here.

There are also considerations with where the mechanics are to service and turn over the long-haul birds, I'm guessing American has the best facility for maintenance and the most pre-existing connections at DFW so they are continuing that service. Detroit's a weird one, but I guess it's just too important as a Delta hub.

Think about the CTA's Night Owl service - it gets rid of some direct service from point to point, but preserves service across the city by forcing riders to transfer.
Uh, no. I figured some predictable Chicago-booster defensiveness on here but not at this level. The CDC does not generate 6,000 seats per day for international flying, not now, not ever.

Chicago is "smack dab in the middle" if you think the world is flat, which is not how airplanes fly.

The only response that has made sense is F1 Tommy's - the fact has always been and is now clear that both UA and AA never considered O'Hare a primary hub, but a secondary. They clearly shifted their international flying to what they viewed as their primary international hubs from day one. This is not good for Chicago and I hope the coming recession just kills United and allows us to have its gates taken over by an airline that isn't pure misery when flying or dealing with customer service, and an airline that actually prioritizes Chicago and its unique northern geography which makes it very ideal for both Atlantic and Pacific long haul routes because the Earth is round, and super connectivity to the continental U.S.
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  #2169  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2020, 1:07 PM
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Originally Posted by chiphile View Post
Uh, no. I figured some predictable Chicago-booster defensiveness on here but not at this level. The CDC does not generate 6,000 seats per day for international flying, not now, not ever.

Chicago is "smack dab in the middle" if you think the world is flat, which is not how airplanes fly.

The only response that has made sense is F1 Tommy's - the fact has always been and is now clear that both UA and AA never considered O'Hare a primary hub, but a secondary. They clearly shifted their international flying to what they viewed as their primary international hubs from day one. This is not good for Chicago and I hope the coming recession just kills United and allows us to have its gates taken over by an airline that isn't pure misery when flying or dealing with customer service, and an airline that actually prioritizes Chicago and its unique northern geography which makes it very ideal for both Atlantic and Pacific long haul routes because the Earth is round, and super connectivity to the continental U.S.
Honestly, I think this entire discussion is patently ridiculous right now! Nobody's flying, airlines are curtailing all services drastically, and who the hell cares which airports get what right now, anyhow!?!?! We're dealing with a completely new world right now, one that hopefully will return to some semblance of normalcy in the next few months. Until then, nothing is permanent, everything is changing, changing so fast that even the 24/7 internet news cycle can't keep up. What the hell is wrong with you guys, arguing over such insipid garbage???

We're dealing with an unprecedented pandemic right now, absolutely nothing else matters at this time. Let's see how this all plays out in the weeks and months ahead, then get back to our regularly-scheduled dick-waving.

Just my $.02.

Aaron (Glowrock)
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  #2170  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2020, 1:50 PM
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Yeah the lack of flights right now is a good thing.
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  #2171  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2020, 1:53 PM
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In our present case people are still confident about their jobs and the economy
This take aged real well

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  #2172  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2020, 6:06 PM
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Originally Posted by chiphile View Post
Uh, no. I figured some predictable Chicago-booster defensiveness on here but not at this level. The CDC does not generate 6,000 seats per day for international flying, not now, not ever.
What is booster ish about this? It's not a normal time and the usual decision logic for air routes no longer applies. I'm not surprised Chicago lost most of its connectivity during such a drastic paring-down. I don't think it indicates any kind of weird grudge against Chicago on the part of the airlines.

Also, why does the number of seats matter? It's not like the airlines can shrink their planes - the long-haul birds capable of these flights only come in certain sizes. The goal is not to fill the flights but to provide essential connectivity between key cities and ONLY between key cities for key personnel during this crisis, Atlanta being a super important city due to CDC.

Don't forget that the Trump administration runs FAA - it may not truly make sense to run so many flights into Atlanta, but I'm sure Trump and co believe it is.

Quote:
Chicago is "smack dab in the middle" if you think the world is flat, which is not how airplanes fly.
Chicago is still almost 1,000 miles further to Japanese and Korean airports than West Coast hubs like LAX and SFO even on a great circle distance.

Quote:
the fact has always been and is now clear that both UA and AA never considered O'Hare a primary hub, but a secondary. They clearly shifted their international flying to what they viewed as their primary international hubs from day one. This is not good for Chicago and I hope the coming recession just kills United and allows us to have its gates taken over by an airline that isn't pure misery when flying or dealing with customer service, and an airline that actually prioritizes Chicago and its unique northern geography which makes it very ideal for both Atlantic and Pacific long haul routes because the Earth is round, and super connectivity to the continental U.S.
I just don't see this, sorry. One way of saying Chicago is "good for both Atlantic and Pacific" is that it's not ideal for either. Under normal circumstances ORD functions as a collection point for the middle of the nation and prevents coastal hubs from being overwhelmed. That's the role ORD has held for decades. But it's a role that's conditional upon an overall high level of air traffic across the nation - take that away and airlines will naturally re-focus on a smaller number of coastal hubs to minimize redundancy and fuel consumption. In some cases, as with American in Dallas or Delta in Detroit, they have too many of their key facilities at a mid-continent site so they're locked in there regardless of whether it is a logical node in a skeleton network.
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  #2173  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2020, 6:37 PM
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On that note, China East just had their first flight land at ORD in weeks, a 777W direct from Shanghai (PVG). They also started flights to JFK and LAX again but not ATL or DFW or SFO. Infact they never go to DFW or ATL and cancelled the SFO.
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  #2174  
Old Posted Mar 26, 2020, 3:06 PM
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I am worried that the TED Spread is spiking:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TEDRATE
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  #2175  
Old Posted May 5, 2020, 2:36 AM
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The change in the title to on hold is pretty bad omen in my experience around here.

GD you covid. Could you have came around at a worse time?

I mean we were on a good roar, times were really good financially and in the construction of some really great buildings. How we recover our post covid will have a lot to say about the viability of the DT market Office buildings like the Old Post Office and the Idea of returning to the center of it all. Will a portion of those employees not telecommute to their job from anywhere in the country now. Its really sad if we do not get back to previous concept of returning to the city...… Its very worrisome on so many levels. I don't have enough time to explain the consequences but boy does Chicago really miss Rahm right now.


This crash could last a very, very long time unfortunately.
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  #2176  
Old Posted May 5, 2020, 10:34 AM
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Originally Posted by bnk View Post
The change in the title to on hold is pretty bad omen in my experience around here.

GD you covid. Could you have came around at a worse time?

I mean we were on a good roar, times were really good financially and in the construction of some really great buildings. How we recover our post covid will have a lot to say about the viability of the DT market Office buildings like the Old Post Office and the Idea of returning to the center of it all. Will a portion of those employees not telecommute to their job from anywhere in the country now. Its really sad if we do not get back to previous concept of returning to the city...… Its very worrisome on so many levels. I don't have enough time to explain the consequences but boy does Chicago really miss Rahm right now.


This crash could last a very, very long time unfortunately.
I agree with your assessment and I try not to think about it.
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  #2177  
Old Posted May 5, 2020, 12:34 PM
Skyguy_7 Skyguy_7 is offline
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^^ In my opinion, after working from home on and off for two months, I've never craved human interaction and face-to-face brainstorming more. Working from home is a horrible place to accomplish tasks. Perhaps more people have realized this as well.
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  #2178  
Old Posted May 5, 2020, 2:15 PM
Halsted & Villagio Halsted & Villagio is offline
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Originally Posted by bnk View Post
The change in the title to on hold is pretty bad omen in my experience around here.

GD you covid. Could you have came around at a worse time?

I mean we were on a good roar, times were really good financially and in the construction of some really great buildings. How we recover our post covid will have a lot to say about the viability of the DT market Office buildings like the Old Post Office and the Idea of returning to the center of it all. Will a portion of those employees not telecommute to their job from anywhere in the country now. Its really sad if we do not get back to previous concept of returning to the city...… Its very worrisome on so many levels. I don't have enough time to explain the consequences but boy does Chicago really miss Rahm right now.


This crash could last a very, very long time unfortunately.
You are over-reacting a little bit. Sure, living in the core will take a hit (for every city) and the economy will slow for a while, but there is an evolution of sorts taking place and when the dust settles you will see a more diverse economy, new businesses emerge and a fairly significant transfer of wealth will have taken place. All of those things present the prospect of a better world. Time will tell. In other words, you can either "lean into this" and grow and get better, or remain whimsical, bitter and wish for leaders long gone (Obama/Rahm/whomever) and wish for things that will never happen/fail to grow.

Moreover, as much as I love seeing a bustling Chicago core, and as much as I love seeing Chicago add spectacular towers to our world renown skyline, human "life" itself is more important. And with that in mind, I believe Lori Lightfoot is doing an amazing job and is the right Mayor for this time in Chicago.

This is not a time to reopen the city prematurely or try to force business investment. Where cities are doing that, that ethos is proving devastating all over the county with Covid-19 feasting on that newfound activity vis-a'-vis the staggering death projections that were released just yesterday. This is a time to protect life first, get through these waves, move the ball down the road while buying time for a vaccine.
Lori is doing that.

You appear to be a conservative. Well, embrace conservationism then and let business thrive or fail on its own during this time without giving them bailout after bailout. I agree with the 1 bailout they got but it should have been more limited in scope and it should have been more needs/viability based.There was a "money grab" that took place by big corp, with corporations that did not need the money grabbing it and mom and pop stores losing out - ridiculous! No more with the handouts to big corp. Put human life first and where appropriate, make sure "small" businesses get the help they need and let businesses that are meant to survive, survive, and those meant to fail, let them fail. Human life must come first. Without life, there is no business.

To a large degree, we see all of this happening now in Chicago. Lori is prioritizing life right now (as she should be)... and towers here are still going up. Spec towers like this one knew the cost of playing roulette - they lost. It happens. Wishing for a return of Rahm or wishing for a return of the past, is foolhardy and serves no purpose. That may seem rough, but that is reality.
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  #2179  
Old Posted May 5, 2020, 2:22 PM
Downtowntransplant Downtowntransplant is offline
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Originally Posted by Skyguy_7 View Post
^^ In my opinion, after working from home on and off for two months, I've never craved human interaction and face-to-face brainstorming more. Working from home is a horrible place to accomplish tasks. Perhaps more people have realized this as well.
Couldn’t agree more. I’m a professional and work downtown - can’t wait to be back. There may be less construction for a few years but that’s also cyclical given the scope and size of this construction boom. Long term tho I think the American worker still seeks the downtown office setting.
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  #2180  
Old Posted May 5, 2020, 11:14 PM
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Right, I think people will chill out and not mind being on a crowded train or sidewalk once there's a vaccine.
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