Provincial Politics - Page 8

Marty_Mcfly · #**141** Posted **Feb 14, 2021, 7:47 PM**

I'll post social media trends possibly tomorrow. This will be my last social media post until right before the ballots are counted, as I suspect we'll be going into a holding pattern during lockdown where not much will happen. I'll keep updating my numbers but I won't share them.

I'm posting though because as I was updating numbers this morning I came across something which was very LOL. Sherri Gambin-Walsh has updated her page so that you can't see the number of likes on it anymore; instead you get a very liberal estimate which doesn't appear to be accurate. Not sure why she would do this; I refuse to believe her eyes have stumbled across my analysis.

PoscStudent · #**142** Posted **Feb 14, 2021, 10:02 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

I'll post social media trends possibly tomorrow. This will be my last social media post until right before the ballots are counted, as I suspect we'll be going into a holding pattern during lockdown where not much will happen. I'll keep updating my numbers but I won't share them.

I'm posting though because as I was updating numbers this morning I came across something which was very LOL. Sherri Gambin-Walsh has updated her page so that you can't see the number of likes on it anymore; instead you get a very liberal estimate which doesn't appear to be accurate. Not sure why she would do this; I refuse to believe her eyes have stumbled across my analysis.

I was thinking of your analysis today. Even looked to see if you gave the actual number of likes so I could check out a few myself.

jondrover · #**143** Posted **Feb 15, 2021, 6:36 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

Online voting in an election is a thing that is often talked about but rarely understood. The security concerns are major, and surprisingly enough despite living in a world dominated by the internet for about 20 years now, no one knows how to address those issues to ensure a safe, secure online election. We're likely still years away from that becoming a reality.

Mail-in voting only is much more probable. We need parties to prioritize releasing platforms BEFORE mail-in votes are due. Otherwise you're voting for a colour only, and that hasn't served us very well at all up to this point.

Years away from that becoming a reality? WTF? I voted in the 2001 UK General Election over the internet. That was 21 years ago!! I setup an account, entered my UK address and they mailed me a PIN number to vote. Got the mail three days later, logged in and boom, Tony Blair had another vote.

ElectionsNL has two jobs, to maintain a current election database and to run elections. And they've sometimes got YEARS to plan for these things. It is ridiculous that they keep their list in an excel spreadsheet and don't put much effort into keeping it current. It is equally ridiculous that they do not offer some form of online voting, not as the only method of voting, but to enhance the current "system".

Cheers,
Jon_

statbass · #**144** Posted **Feb 15, 2021, 7:21 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by jondrover

Years away from that becoming a reality? WTF? I voted in the 2001 UK General Election over the internet. That was 21 years ago!! I setup an account, entered my UK address and they mailed me a PIN number to vote. Got the mail three days later, logged in and boom, Tony Blair had another vote.

ElectionsNL has two jobs, to maintain a current election database and to run elections. And they've sometimes got YEARS to plan for these things. It is ridiculous that they keep their list in an excel spreadsheet and don't put much effort into keeping it current. It is equally ridiculous that they do not offer some form of online voting, not as the only method of voting, but to enhance the current "system".

Cheers,
Jon_

I wholeheartedly agree with you. The fact we're still using a voting system that's been around since the middle of the last century (or longer) speaks volumes. I understand that not everyone can avail of online voting, but allowing this option seems like a great way to increase voter uptake - a big win for democracy! A big effort to get it off the ground but long term positives are huge.

Elections Newfoundland (and Canada for that matter) need to step into the 21 century. We are 21 years into it already!

MonctonRad · #**145** Posted **Feb 15, 2021, 7:50 PM**

An election without a paper trail of some kind however is one one that is rife for fraud and/or outside interference. You wouldn't want somebody like Donald Trump yelling from the balcony that the election was "rigged" and not be able to refute him.

If your vote is electronic, then how can you absolutely guarantee that there isn't some type of electoral manipulation going on behind the scenes? At least with a paper ballot, they can be counted manually if necessary, and with invigilators from the major parties on hand to make sure that there is no hanky panky going on.

Elections NB has electronic vote counters at each polling station. You fill out your ballot manually, and then insert it into the counting machine to record your vote. The paper ballot however is retained, and if the election is close, then a manual recount can be requested.

I think this is the best of both worlds. The election results come in quickly, because the tabulation is electronic, but there is a manual failsafe in the case of a contested result.

There were no recounts demanded in our most recent election, but in the election immediately before that, Saint John Harbour was decided by something like a five vote margin. The manual recount however resulted in the overturning of only a single ballot, and the election stood. We had a secure election, and a verifiable one too.

Marty_Mcfly · #**146** Posted **Feb 15, 2021, 8:42 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by jondrover

Years away from that becoming a reality? WTF? I voted in the 2001 UK General Election over the internet. That was 21 years ago!! I setup an account, entered my UK address and they mailed me a PIN number to vote. Got the mail three days later, logged in and boom, Tony Blair had another vote.

ElectionsNL has two jobs, to maintain a current election database and to run elections. And they've sometimes got YEARS to plan for these things. It is ridiculous that they keep their list in an excel spreadsheet and don't put much effort into keeping it current. It is equally ridiculous that they do not offer some form of online voting, not as the only method of voting, but to enhance the current "system".

Cheers,
Jon_

Considering the UK hasn't used online voting since 2006, and only used it 5 times in total, that there must have been some limitations or issues which kept it from becoming common place.

EDIT: A good article outlining the issues with online voting security issues. It also appears that the UK online voting period was only a pilot project. So yes, until security issues can be sorted out to ensure online voting can still result in a fair election, then yes it's still years away from being a reality.

https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...-is-not-secure

Marty_Mcfly · #**147** Posted **Feb 15, 2021, 9:44 PM**

Top 5 Candidates by Social Media Page Growth (7th-14th of February)

1. John Haggie (LIB-INC), Gander: +1713
2. Andrew Furey (LIB-INC), Humber - Gros Morne: +502
3. Ches Crosbie (PC-INC), Winsor Lake: + 352
4. Damian Hollett (PC), Mount Scio: +120
5. Kristina Ennis (PC), St. John's West: +114

The names in the media the past week have got pretty decent boosts. Then there's Kristina Ennis with a big, unexplainable bump.

Bottom 5 Candidates by Social Media Page Growth (7th-14th of February)

1. Carolyn Davis (NDP), Placentia West-Bellevue; Jamie Ruby (NDP), Stephenville-Port aux Port: 0

2. Brian Warr (LIB-INC), Baie Verte - Green Bay; Devon Ryan (LIB), Torngat Mountains; Andrea Newburry (NLA), Mount Scio; Kathleen Burt (NDP), Topsail-Paradise; Shane Snook (NLA), St. George's-Humber: +1

3. Dave Brazil (PC-INC), Conception Bay East-Bell Island; William Neville (NLA), Mount Pearl North; Craig Pardy (PC-INC), Bonavista; Anthony Chadwick (NDP), Harbour Main; Noel Joe (NDP), Fortune Bay-Cape la Hune; Andrew Parsons (LIB-INC), Burgeo-La Poile; Nick McGrath (PC), Labrador West; Perry Trimper (IND-INC), Lake Melville: +2

4. Pam Parsons (LIB-INC), Harbour Grace-Port de Grave; Derek Bennett (LIB-INC), Lewisporte-Twillingate; Ethan Wheeler-Park (PC), Burgeo-La Poile; Lisa Dempster (LIB-INC), Cartright-L'Anse aux Clair; Lela Evans (PC-INC), Torngat Mountains: +3

5. Wayne Button (LIB), Labrador West; Michelle Blaikie (LIB), Lake Melville; Brenda Walsh (NDP), St. John's West; Anne Marie Anonsen (NDP), Terra Nova: +4

No one lost any followers this week, but a lot of people as you can see above took a very quiet leap over what should have been the finish line.

* INC = Incumbent MHA

As well, it's probably a good idea to look at who were the big gainers and losers for what would have been the entirety of the election campaign.

Top 5 of the Month

1. John Haggie (LIB-INC), Gander: +2077
2. Andrew Furey (LIB-INC), Humber - Gros Morne: +1225
3. Ches Crosbie (PC-INC), Winsor Lake: + 1054
4. Patricia Johnson-Castle (NDP), Torngat Mountains: +682
5. Sheila Fitzgerald (PC), St. Barbe-L'Anse aux Meadows: +619

If we take away party leaders, who tend to draw well and have a high likelihood of re-election, we have

1. John Haggie (LIB-INC), Gander: +2077
2. Patricia Johnson-Castle (NDP), Torngat Mountains: +682
3. Sheila Fitzgerald (PC), St. Barbe-L'Anse aux Meadows: +619
4. Lin Paddock (PC), Baie Verte-Green Bay: +586
5. Jamie Harnum (PC), Gander: +566

Seeing Johnson-Castle do so well in Torngat is very surprising. I think the race between her and Evans could be close. I think Fitzgerald and Paddock may also do very well (or win) in their races.

Bottom 5 of the Month

1. Brian Warr (LIB-INC), Baie Verte-Green Bay: 0
2. Pam Parsons (LIB-INC), Harbour Grace-Port de Grave; Perry Trimper (IND-INC), Lake Melville: +2
3. William Neville (NLA), Mount Pearl North: +3
4. Shane Snook (NLA), St. George's-Humber: +4
5. Jamie Ruby (NDP), Stephenville-Port aux Port: +6

Come on Warr, do something.

PoscStudent · #**148** Posted **Feb 15, 2021, 9:48 PM**

One negative about online voting, and voting machines, is they count the ballots too quickly! I want some suspense on election night! She’s up by 5 votes! Now she’s down by 2! They’re tied!

PoscStudent · #**149** Posted **Feb 16, 2021, 1:26 AM**

Starting to wonder if Baie Verte-Green Bay could be close. Last time both the PCs and Liberals lost support and the NL Alliance did surprisingly well.

Marty_Mcfly · #**150** Posted **Feb 17, 2021, 3:08 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by PoscStudent

Starting to wonder if Baie Verte-Green Bay could be close. Last time both the PCs and Liberals lost support and the NL Alliance did surprisingly well.

Agreed. It's a traditional PC stronghold district and I predicted it to flip in 2019. The Alliance did a lot better than expected there last election, and it appears a lot of that support came from traditional PC-leaning communities. It'll be interesting to see how things go this time around with only Liberal and PC candidates on the ballot in the district.

suvla85 · #**151** Posted **Feb 17, 2021, 3:44 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by PoscStudent

Starting to wonder if Baie Verte-Green Bay could be close. Last time both the PCs and Liberals lost support and the NL Alliance did surprisingly well.

Maybe! Probably would have been more likely if the election actually happened last week.

PoscStudent · #**152** Posted **Feb 17, 2021, 3:55 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by suvla85

Maybe! Probably would have been more likely if the election actually happened last week.

Maybe, maybe not. Seems like the Liberals could be losing support with the whole election fiasco. If people who are angry signup to vote I imagine they’ll be supporting the PCs - and maybe NDP in the districts they’ve managed to get real candidates.

Marty_Mcfly · #**153** Posted **Feb 17, 2021, 6:29 PM**

The longer that this drags on the more harm it does to the Liberal party. However, the Liberals were so far ahead of everyone else in the polls that it may not matter.

suvla85 · #**154** Posted **Feb 18, 2021, 2:55 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

The longer that this drags on the more harm it does to the Liberal party. However, the Liberals were so far ahead of everyone else in the polls that it may not matter.

Not to mention a decent amount of votes have already been cast. I think the recent news hurts them, and has a small chance of knocking them into minority status, but no way do they lose.

Marty_Mcfly · #**155** Posted **Feb 18, 2021, 5:51 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by suvla85

Not to mention a decent amount of votes have already been cast. I think the recent news hurts them, and has a small chance of knocking them into minority status, but no way do they lose.

Agreed. I think a minority government is the best case scenario anyway. The Liberals are asking for people to vote for them to give them a mandate, aka freedom to do as they please. Being in a minority situation up to date hasn't harmed the Liberals, the NDP have supported quite a bit of what they've done. It's not like the house is dysfunctional at the moment; lets keep making everyone work together and compromise.

Marty_Mcfly · #**156** Posted **Feb 22, 2021, 3:04 AM**

Mainstreet releasing another poll this week.

I think this is all we're getting too. Forum would have and should have released something last week. This is truly an "interesting" election, but most polling agencies seem to not care in the least bit.

PoscStudent · #**157** Posted **Feb 22, 2021, 9:49 PM**

Finally might see what impact this mess of an election has had. Still a shame other pollsters have not been polling.

Marty_Mcfly · #**158** Posted **Feb 23, 2021, 8:17 PM**

Mainstreet Research Poll - Feb 20/21
https://www.scribd.com/document/4956...r-Final-Part-2

PART 1: For those who have already voted (before Feb 20), who did you vote for?

LIB: 59%
PC: 30%
NDP: 7%
NLA: 1%
OTH: 4%

PART 2: For those who have yet to vote, who will you vote for?

LIB: 49%
PC: 34%
NDP: 10%
NLA: 2%
OTH: 4%

COMBINED (Those who have voted and those who will)

LIB: 53%
PC: 32%
NDP: 9%
NLA: 2%
OTH: 4%

Regionals (region n's look a lot better this time):

St. John's:
LIB: 50
PC: 32
NDP: 18
NLA: 0
OTH: 0

St. John's Suburban:
LIB: 46
PC: 29
NDP: 13
NLA: 3
OTH: 9

Avalon Peninsula:
LIB: 53
PC: 33
NDP: 5
NLA: 4
OTH: 5

Labrador:
LIB: 53
PC: 17
NDP: 10
NLA: 1
OTH: 18

Rest of Newfoundland:
LIB: 57
PC: 36
NDP: 4
NLA: 1
OTH: 1

PoscStudent · #**159** Posted **Feb 23, 2021, 9:53 PM**

The gap between the Liberals and PCs has closed significantly but I did expect the Liberals to have dropped off a bit more than they have.

Marty_Mcfly · #**160** Posted **Mar 8, 2021, 1:18 AM**

With the votes beginning to be counted, and much of the steam regarding the election having blown away, I will expect the backlash against the Liberals to slowly subside, especially since it looks like the current wave of COVID-19 is nearing its end.

I still have been monitoring social media numbers every Sunday, and while I won't post anything until right before the results for the election are released, I will say that for the majority of candidates their page growth has expectedly slowed down. I'm not surprised, with the election going the way that it's going right now I haven't personally thought much about it. It also seems like campaigning has really slowed down. That being said, there are still some candidates who are still showing signs of strong growth. They include (in order from highest to lowest):

John Haggie (Lib-INC), Gander
Andrew Furey (Lib-INC), Humber-Gros Morne
Ches Crosbie (PC-IN), Windsor Lake

Lin Paddock (PC), Baie Verte-Green Bay
Gary Bishop (PC), St. George's-Humber
Jamie Harnum (PC), Gander
George Murphy (Lib), Harbour Main
Lloyd Parrott (PC-INC), Terra Nova
Patricia Johnson-Castle (NDP), Torngat Mountains
Kristina Ennis (PC), St. John's West
Calvin Manning (PC), Placentia-St. Mary's