Provincial Politics

[PoscStudent]

The PCs seemed to struggle to find a candidate for Fogo Island - Cape Freels but in the end managed to pull out a large win. On the other hand, the Liberals had 1200 people vote in their nomination.

Fred Hutton obviously played a big role in the Liberals winning Conception Bay East - Bell Island, but with the result in FI-CF it’s clear that there’s definitely issues that are penetrating in rural areas that aren’t in urban NL. Federally over the last couple elections we’ve seen a shift where rural areas are becoming more conservative and urban areas are between the Liberals and NDP, which is the case in most other provinces. Provincially the PCs used to dominate St. John’s but that’s changed over the last 15 years and even their grip on the suburbs have been decreasing while rural areas have been a bit more blue despite the Liberals forming government.

Baie Verte - Green Bay was already looking promising for the PCs as they nominated their former candidate who had a very strong performance last election. After this week’s by-election I would think they’re the clear favourites. The Liberals have yet to nominate a candidate and I have not seen anyone announce they’re running.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by SuperCat

You were right on with your percentages but picked the wrong horse!
PCs 3290 57.7%
Libs 2244 39.3%
NDP 169 3%

This makes two by-elections in a row where if I just switched the PC and Liberal vote share that I'd be spot on.

I at least understand Fred Hutton upsetting the PC's in Conception Bay, but this one is a true shocker. I agree with what Poscstudent said. I think there was more to this by-election than just fisheries. Getting a heavy feeling of "fuck Trudeau" out of this one.

If anyone has been following my election predictions since 2019 you know I'm very bullish on the PCs in Baie Verte, even though they've failed to win twice in a row. If they can win Fogo Island in this climate then I would think that Baie Verte is a very easy pickup for them.