Your Projected 2030 CSA Rankings (vs. 2018 CSA Estimates)

[The ATX]

Originally Posted by JAYNYC

Lived in both cities for years, continue to visit both regularly and beg to disagree that those represent each respective cities' southernmost and northernmost suburbs.

Further, there have always been - and continue to be - noticeable development gaps between Kyle and San Marcos, between San Marcos and New Braunfels, and between New Braunfels and Schertz (regardless of how few miles separate them).

So the Census Bureau's MSA and CSA definitions don't apply to your CSA definition? The San Antonio MSA and CSA has New Braunfels in the name of the MSA and CSA, and Hays Co. (San Marcos) has been part of the Austin MSA since 1990.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

I didn’t notice, because when I lived in DC I was a car-lite urbanite and rarely visited Maryland other than to pass through. And when I did, Baltimore felt like a distinct entity.

The whole “suburbs blend together” is a very slippery slope. We might was well say that the entire northeast is one massive metro, if we continue to go down that path.

And it serves little use. Suburbs are just a jumble of housing subdivisions nowadays anyhow. Cities are the places with real identity, at least cities largely built out before WWII. Whatever “flag” a suburb wears is beyond the point. There are people in Waukegan or Zion, IL who spend most of their time going up to Milwaukee, while there may be Oak Creek, WI who go to Chicago a lot.

Point being, we are better off narrowing down the definition of a city/metro rather than trying to expand it, which leads to a lot of splitting hairs.

I prefer Television Market Areas to determine rankings. If the region is truly functioning as a single cultural and economic unit, then the media should be reflecting that. If the people of Baltimore and D.C. are working in each other's cities and frequenting each other's stores and following each other's media, then the market would follow. D.C. seems to be encroaching on Baltimore, but they're still distinct entities.

The 2018-19 Nielsen rankings feel right to me. I also like that they rank households and not individuals.

1) NYC - 7.10M
2) LA - 5.28M
3) Chicago - 3.25M
4) Philadelphia - 2.82M
5) Dallas - 2.62M
6) D.C. - 2.48M
7) Houston - 2.42M
8) San Francisco - 2.41M
9) Boston - 2.36M
10) Atlanta - 2.34M

Interestingly, the media markets agree that some of the cities put into the NYC CSA are more affiliated with Philadelphia.

[craigs]

Originally Posted by galleyfox

I prefer Television Market Areas to determine rankings. If the region is truly functioning as a single cultural and economic unit, then the media should be reflecting that. If the people of Baltimore and D.C. are working in each other's cities and frequenting each other's stores and following each other's media, then the market would follow. D.C. seems to be encroaching on Baltimore, but they're still distinct entities.

The 2018-19 Nielsen rankings feel right to me. I also like that they rank households and not individuals.

1) NYC - 7.10M
2) LA - 5.28M
3) Chicago - 3.25M
4) Philadelphia - 2.82M
5) Dallas - 2.62M
6) D.C. - 2.48M
7) Houston - 2.42M
8) San Francisco - 2.41M
9) Boston - 2.36M
10) Atlanta - 2.34M

Interestingly, the media markets agree that some of the cities put into the NYC CSA are more affiliated with Philadelphia.

Does Nielsen list San Jose separately from San Francisco? I ask because the Bay Area's only NBC affiliate broadcasts out of San Jose.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by craigs

Does Nielsen list San Jose separately from San Francisco? I ask because the Bay Area's only NBC affiliate broadcasts out of San Jose.

They list it together as the San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose market.

I know a lot of people in the area like to think of San Francisco and San Jose as being completely different metros, but the CSA was invented to try to deal with multi-nodal urban areas that share the same major amenities on a regular basis.

[JAYNYC]

Originally Posted by The ATX

So the Census Bureau's MSA and CSA definitions don't apply to your CSA definition? The San Antonio MSA and CSA has New Braunfels in the name of the MSA and CSA, and Hays Co. (San Marcos) has been part of the Austin MSA since 1990.

Regardless of the MSA and CSA "definitions", if you can't see/feel the blatantly obvious development gaps that exist between Kyle, San Marcos, New Braunfels and Schertz, I don't know what to tell you.

[JAYNYC]

Originally Posted by JManc

New Braunfels/ San Marcos would seem connected to San Antonio/ Austin receptively if the latter were the size of Houston or Dallas but they are so much smaller and compact metros (there's a lot of nothing in SATX's city limits) that the cities along 35 and right around there, Buda, Seguin, etc. feel like their own region. My suburb (Kingwood) is 30 miles from downtown Houston and feels very much a part of Houston because Houston is such a massive sprawl monster.

Agree.

A "real world" example:

Katy - Houston's westernmost suburb, lies 31.4 miles from downtown Houston, yet it feels like an extension of Houston (in my opinion).

Meanwhile, New Braunfels - the city that another poster claimed was San Antonio's northernmost suburb - is 30.9 miles from downtown San Antonio, but in no way feels like an extension of San Antonio (in my opinion).

[dave8721]

Could we see Orlampa by 2030? With Lakeland part of the Orlando CSA, the Orlando CSA would borders the Tampa MSA. A combined Tampa/Orlando CSA would had a population of 6.2 million in 2010. Probably 7.5 million by 2030.

CSA's in Florida are silly because Florida's counties are just too big. Part of the reason of why the border between Orlando and Tampa gets comlicated is because CSA's use County borders and Polk County is giant. The Tampa Orlando border is probably someone inside of the county and Tampa and Orlando are certainly not connected now. With that giant county between them they just need a certain % commuters in that county to get it in their CSA's.
Polk County:
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Po...!4d-81.6911559

Here is the Orlando/Tampa border (the "Countyline Rd"):
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Po...!4d-81.6911559

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by Sun Belt

Phoenix doesn't have a CSA. It's MSA will likely pass Boston by 2020.

It actually just got one but its just Phoenix plus Payson adds like 20k people.

By 2030 the Phoenix metro should be hitting up to 6 million which will land it at number 9 or 10. Unless our CSA grows to include Prescott and the Verde Valley (which it could) we will still be ranked far lower on our CSA ranking becasue the Payson Metropolitan area is so small.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by craigs

Does Nielsen list San Jose separately from San Francisco? I ask because the Bay Area's only NBC affiliate broadcasts out of San Jose.

Television is a dying medium my dude.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by galleyfox

I prefer Television Market Areas to determine rankings. If the region is truly functioning as a single cultural and economic unit, then the media should be reflecting that. If the people of Baltimore and D.C. are working in each other's cities and frequenting each other's stores and following each other's media, then the market would follow. D.C. seems to be encroaching on Baltimore, but they're still distinct entities.

The 2018-19 Nielsen rankings feel right to me. I also like that they rank households and not individuals.

1) NYC - 7.10M
2) LA - 5.28M
3) Chicago - 3.25M
4) Philadelphia - 2.82M
5) Dallas - 2.62M
6) D.C. - 2.48M
7) Houston - 2.42M
8) San Francisco - 2.41M
9) Boston - 2.36M
10) Atlanta - 2.34M

Interestingly, the media markets agree that some of the cities put into the NYC CSA are more affiliated with Philadelphia.

This would also depend on broadcast signal quality. NYC and Philadelphia are so close together that over-the-air signals from New York can easily reach into solid Philadelphia territory, and vice-versa. Many people may opt for one over the other because the signal quality.

[JAYNYC]

Originally Posted by Obadno

which will land it at number 9 or 10.

Which cities do you realistically expect the Phoenix CSA to surpass by 2030?

My 2030 projections (again) below.

1. New York-Newark, NY-NJ-CT-PA Combined Statistical Area
2. Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA Combined Statistical Area
3. San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA Combined Statistical Area
4. Washington-Baltimore-Arlington, DC-MD-VA-WV-PA Combined Statistical Area
5. Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI Combined Statistical Area
6. Dallas-Fort Worth, TX-OK Combined Statistical Area
7. Boston-Worcester-Providence, MA-RI-NH-CT Combined Statistical Area
8. Houston-The Woodlands, TX Combined Statistical Area
9. Miami-Port St. Lucie-Fort Lauderdale, FL Combined Statistical Area
10. Atlanta–Athens-Clarke County–Sandy Springs, GA-AL Combined Statistical Area
11. Philadelphia-Reading-Camden, PA-NJ-DE-MD Combined Statistical Area
12. Phoenix-Mesa, AZ Combined Statistical Area
13. Seattle-Tacoma, WA Combined Statistical Area
14. Detroit-Warren-Ann Arbor, MI Combined Statistical Area
15. Orlando-Lakeland-Deltona, FL Combined Statistical Area
16. Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI Combined Statistical Area
17. Denver-Aurora, CO Combined Statistical Area
18. Portland-Vancouver-Salem, OR-WA Combined Statistical Area
19. Cleveland-Akron-Canton, OH Combined Statistical Area
20. Charlotte-Concord, NC-SC Combined Statistical Area

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by JAYNYC

Which cities do you realistically expect the Phoenix CSA to surpass by 2030?

My 2030 projections (again) below.

1. New York-Newark, NY-NJ-CT-PA Combined Statistical Area
2. Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA Combined Statistical Area
3. San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA Combined Statistical Area
4. Washington-Baltimore-Arlington, DC-MD-VA-WV-PA Combined Statistical Area
5. Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI Combined Statistical Area
6. Dallas-Fort Worth, TX-OK Combined Statistical Area
7. Boston-Worcester-Providence, MA-RI-NH-CT Combined Statistical Area
8. Houston-The Woodlands, TX Combined Statistical Area
9. Miami-Port St. Lucie-Fort Lauderdale, FL Combined Statistical Area
10. Atlanta–Athens-Clarke County–Sandy Springs, GA-AL Combined Statistical Area
11. Philadelphia-Reading-Camden, PA-NJ-DE-MD Combined Statistical Area
12. Phoenix-Mesa, AZ Combined Statistical Area
13. Seattle-Tacoma, WA Combined Statistical Area
14. Detroit-Warren-Ann Arbor, MI Combined Statistical Area
15. Orlando-Lakeland-Deltona, FL Combined Statistical Area
16. Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI Combined Statistical Area
17. Denver-Aurora, CO Combined Statistical Area
18. Portland-Vancouver-Salem, OR-WA Combined Statistical Area
19. Cleveland-Akron-Canton, OH Combined Statistical Area
20. Charlotte-Concord, NC-SC Combined Statistical Area

Re read my post. It's MSA will be 9 or 10 with its CSA being lower because Payson (micro-politan) only adds 50,000 people, unless we Get Prescott and the Verde Valley to be included in our CSA (which could occur) or Tucson (which I highly doubt)

If Prescott is added to the Phoenix CSA that will be an additional 300k+ by 2030, If Tucson did that would be an additional Million. But our CSA ranking at this point is basically at the mercy of how the BLS and Census department define what a CSA is. For Example we didnt even have one at all until this year.

Edit:

Specifically,

if our CSA stays the same: pass Detroit and sit at #12 as you have predicted.

If it adds Prescott: Its hard to say it depends on how Atlanta and Philly Grow, it would be fairly tied with both in 10 years potentially edging out one or both. Or could still find itself at #12

If it adds Tucson: This would change everything as it would add 1 million plus people to the CSA that would without a doubt land us at #10 behind Houston

If it adds Prescott and Tucson: Not enough to make the difference probably would still be #10 with about ~7.3 million people.

[muertecaza]

Originally Posted by Obadno

It actually just got one but its just Phoenix plus Payson adds like 20k people.

By 2030 the Phoenix metro should be hitting up to 6 million which will land it at number 9 or 10. Unless our CSA grows to include Prescott and the Verde Valley (which it could) we will still be ranked far lower on our CSA ranking becasue the Payson Metropolitan area is so small.

Does anyone know if the Census publishes the commuting data used to determine CSAs, and if so, where I can view that data? Even with a relatively low threshold of 15% "employment interchange," it is surprising to me that Payson is now lumped in with Phoenix.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by muertecaza

Does anyone know if the Census publishes the commuting data used to determine CSAs, and if so, where I can view that data? Even with a relatively low threshold of 15% "employment interchange," it is surprising to me that Payson is now lumped in with Phoenix.

There was a thread about it some time ago but I can't remember where the stats came from. I think it was the Census updating/defining MSA's/ CSA's etc before 2020

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by pj3000

Interesting, thanks for the info.

And yes, Philly and New York are definitely culturally distinct (and I would imagine quite a bit more so than in the case of Chicago and Milwaukee). And that's what makes it all the more silly to have Trenton and Allentown considered a part of NYC area... when they are FAR more culturally akin to Philadelphia.

Allentown MSA is no longer part of the New York CSA.