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  #1  
Old Posted May 7, 2021, 9:17 PM
DCReid DCReid is offline
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California reports first ever yearly population decline

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/...story-77558322

Has California reached its peak and is now on New York's path of relative slow or no-existent growth, or maybe decline?
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  #2  
Old Posted May 7, 2021, 10:04 PM
bnk bnk is offline
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Pretty significant one year trajectory.


https://www.thecentersquare.com/cali...94dd6b1be.html

In 2020, California saw a net loss of 182,083 people and a net exodus of 310,918 people.


From 2010 to 2020, about 6.1 million people left California for other states compared to about 4.9 million people who moved to California from other states

Last edited by bnk; May 7, 2021 at 10:16 PM.
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  #3  
Old Posted May 7, 2021, 10:09 PM
galleyfox galleyfox is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DCReid View Post
https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/...story-77558322

Has California reached its peak and is now on New York's path of relative slow or no-existent growth, or maybe decline?
I don’t know what to believe. The population estimates for many states were quite off compared to the population actually recorded in the official census. The census completely missed about 4% of New York’s population over the past decade.

I would wait for the next year or two to judge California’s trajectory since Covid could have just shifted deaths and immigration in time rather than actually changed the long term rates.
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  #4  
Old Posted May 7, 2021, 10:12 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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The U.S. as a whole almost shrank last year for the first time in history.
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  #5  
Old Posted May 7, 2021, 10:17 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
The U.S. as a whole almost shrank last year for the first time in history.
Do you have a link to that statement?
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  #6  
Old Posted May 7, 2021, 10:25 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by bnk View Post
Do you have a link to that statement?
Here:

Quote:
The Census Bureau recently reported in a preliminary estimate that the U.S. population grew 0.35% in the year through July 1, 2020. This marks the fifth consecutive year of slowing growth, as seen in the figure below. Population growth in 2020 also was notably lower than the previous year’s revised growth of 0.46%; 2020 growth will likely be the slowest annual population increase in U.S. history outside of wartime.

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-ec...d-further-2020
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  #7  
Old Posted May 7, 2021, 10:34 PM
3rd&Brown 3rd&Brown is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DCReid View Post
https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/...story-77558322

Has California reached its peak and is now on New York's path of relative slow or no-existent growth, or maybe decline?
Such a weird statement. NY grew by 800K people in the last decade.
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  #8  
Old Posted May 7, 2021, 11:17 PM
Crawford Crawford is offline
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This entire thread is alt-right fakenews. The reality is that CA is #3 or #4 in population growth.

Assuming the thread wasn't created with the intent of spreading alt-right nonsense, the numbers referred to are older annual estimates, which have since been corrected. Basically all the deep-blue states were massively underestimated during the previous administration, while deep-red states were generally overestimated (which I'm sure was a total coincidence and in no way meant to further a false narrative...)
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  #9  
Old Posted May 7, 2021, 11:19 PM
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Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown View Post
Such a weird statement. NY grew by 800K people in the last decade.
And California grew by 2.6 million between 2010 and 2020.

Essentially, people moved out of the state, and not enough people moved into the state to replace those who left mostly because the pandemic brought international immigration to a screeching halt, but also because it kept over 80,000 students abroad from entering the country to study at California universities. Meanwhile, births declined slightly while deaths increased year-over-year by about 20%, for obvious reasons.

After 171 straight years of growth, California could possibly benefit from a breather before growth resumes. And because of the historic nature of the pandemic that so strongly impacted the state's demographics, I doubt we'll see another year-over-year population loss, but who knows.
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Old Posted May 7, 2021, 11:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bnk View Post
Pretty significant one year trajectory.


https://www.thecentersquare.com/cali...94dd6b1be.html

In 2020, California saw a net loss of 182,083 people and a net exodus of 310,918 people.


From 2010 to 2020, about 6.1 million people left California for other states compared to about 4.9 million people who moved to California from other states
Roughly 1 out of 6 Californians left California in that time span?
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  #11  
Old Posted May 8, 2021, 12:24 AM
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Originally Posted by JManc View Post
Roughly 1 out of 6 Californians left California in that time span?
That's what the OP link stated.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/...story-77558322
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  #12  
Old Posted May 8, 2021, 12:29 AM
eschaton eschaton is offline
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We won't really know for sure for awhile, but the 2020 census results suggest the ACS data this decade was garbage...which would include this annual estimate.
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  #13  
Old Posted May 8, 2021, 12:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JManc View Post
Roughly 1 out of 6 Californians left California in that time span?
That's really not unusual. Approximately 400,000 people move out of Texas annually as well. It's just that TX happens to gain more inbound than outbound whereas CA is the other way around.

It's a common misconception that people are no longer moving to California-in fact nearly 5 milliion did just that in the last decade.
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  #14  
Old Posted May 8, 2021, 12:36 AM
Crawford Crawford is offline
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Again, these are not the Census counts. The 2020 state-level Census data come out in August.

These are the older state-level data from 2020 estimates, preceding the enumerated count. In decennial years there are basically two data dumps - the ACS estimates and the official decennial count.
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  #15  
Old Posted May 8, 2021, 1:41 AM
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This is interesting to dissect nonetheless.

Here are the top 20 cities by numerical population change(Current Median Sale Price):
+3,445 Santa Clara($1,400,000)
+3,382 Roseville($575,000)
+3,319 Fresno($280,400)
+3,187 Oakland($906,000)
+3,093 Clovis($380,000)
+3,064 Bakersfield($310,000)
+2,740 Tracy($675,000)
+2,710 Merced($335,000)
+2,592 Menifee($479,000)
+2,477 Manteca($545,000)
+2,425 Fontana($510,000)
+2,088 Elk Grove($556,000)
+2,047 Sacramento($435,000)
+1,697 Lathrop($632,500)
+1,688 Stockton($380,000)
+1,512 Mountain View($1,800,000)
+1,438 Paradise($42,500)
+1,329 Rancho Cordova($442,500)
+1,216 Ontario($520,000)
+1,197 Folsom($673,000)

$1.4 million Santa Clara led the state in numerical growth in 2020, this is such a strange development given the noise regarding the economy---even more interesting, Mountain View is in the top 20 as well.

Oakland grew faster than Bakersfield. I cant recall when that has ever happened in the last 50 years.

Fresno and Sacramento and their environs are well represented in this list.

Look at home prices in San Joaquin County(YIKES), Tracy, Lathrop, Manteca are like the Bay Area's housing Dollar Tree but that is quickly changing.

The Inland Empire is also well represented here(not a surprise) and the prices out there appear to be rising fast too.
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  #16  
Old Posted May 8, 2021, 2:14 AM
lio45 lio45 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JManc View Post
Roughly 1 out of 6 Californians left California in that time span?
Americans move a lot. I expect most states are similar.
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  #17  
Old Posted May 8, 2021, 3:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Again, these are not the Census counts. The 2020 state-level Census data come out in August.

These are the older state-level data from 2020 estimates, preceding the enumerated count. In decennial years there are basically two data dumps - the ACS estimates and the official decennial count.
No, these are California state estimates:

Quote:
The state's population estimate comes from a number of sources, including birth and death counts, the number of new driver's licenses and address changes, school enrollments and federal tax returns.
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  #18  
Old Posted May 8, 2021, 3:40 AM
dave8721 dave8721 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by craigs View Post
And California grew by 2.6 million between 2010 and 2020.

Essentially, people moved out of the state, and not enough people moved into the state to replace those who left mostly because the pandemic brought international immigration to a screeching halt, but also because it kept over 80,000 students abroad from entering the country to study at California universities. Meanwhile, births declined slightly while deaths increased year-over-year by about 20%, for obvious reasons.

After 171 straight years of growth, California could possibly benefit from a breather before growth resumes. And because of the historic nature of the pandemic that so strongly impacted the state's demographics, I doubt we'll see another year-over-year population loss, but who knows.
This. People have always been moving out of California. Due to the pandemic, they were not replaced with international immigration for once. Once things get back to normal, we can assume international immigration will come back and most will go to California like they always have.
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  #19  
Old Posted May 8, 2021, 4:05 AM
jtown,man jtown,man is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
This entire thread is alt-right fakenews. The reality is that CA is #3 or #4 in population growth.

Assuming the thread wasn't created with the intent of spreading alt-right nonsense, the numbers referred to are older annual estimates, which have since been corrected. Basically all the deep-blue states were massively underestimated during the previous administration, while deep-red states were generally overestimated (which I'm sure was a total coincidence and in no way meant to further a false narrative...)
Crawford, what is "alt-right" and how does this conversation qualify as being alt-right?

Not everything you dislike is Nazi, white supremacist or "Alt right" dude.
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  #20  
Old Posted May 8, 2021, 4:07 AM
LA21st LA21st is offline
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Originally Posted by jtown,man View Post
Crawford, what is "alt-right" and how does this conversation qualify as being alt-right?

Not everything you dislike is Nazi, white supremacist or "Alt right" dude.
Actually, he's right. The alt right has a bizarre, stupid narrative. Most people don't take their shit seriously.
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