Who did you vote for?

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Andy6

I don’t think the government is going anywhere. They’re close to a majority and the NDP is in tatters. This was almost a 1974 level of failure and disappointment for them. They have no power base at all anymore.

In theory, it could last the full four year term. That might even be likely. The Conservatives daren't be caught flat footed, however. I'm sure they've got two years to get Scheer's replacement up and running (if in fact Scheer were to resign), but beyond that the risk starts going up.

[Andy6]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

In theory, it could last the full four year term. That might even be likely. The Conservatives daren't be caught flat footed, however. I'm sure they've got two years to get Scheer's replacement up and running (if in fact Scheer were to resign), but beyond that the risk starts going up.

Yes, it does give the Liberals a chance to strike when the iron is hot, with the element of surprise that fixed-date election laws have largely neutralized.

[misher]

Originally Posted by AuxTown

I find it really sad when young people don’t vote. If I ever heard someone was unable to get out due to childcare/transport/financial I would do everything I could to enable them to vote, but that’s almost never the case. It’s almost always apathetic millennials more interested in their personal lives (gaming, CrossFit, free time) than they are in shaping our country for the future. There was a large proportion of pick ups and camo at my polling station today so I’m not feeling too confident in my Liberal preference.

...at least Justine McCaffrey will offer all kinds of stupid sound bites for the media if she’s elected

Honestly I should be able to scan my voting card into an app and vote on my phone.

[ssiguy]

I think the government will last a minimum of 2 years and possibly the entire term. As noted, the NDP is completely broke and with their poor revenue raising record, they will be in no financial means close to mounting a campaign for at least 2 years.

The NDP also have to very careful. They gained a lot of power due to holfing the balance of it but did quite poorly overall. The Greens are eating into their base in most of Canada and the Bloc in Quebec so pulling down the government early will only make their situation worse. The Liberals also won by a very substantial 35 seats so any party that threatens to topple the government will facee the wrath of the citizenry of all parties.

[whatnext]

I'm going to say again that the Greens were big losers. Their seat count went from 2 to 3, big whoop.

The othe big loser is Bernier, the PPC share of the popular vote was even lower than what polling indicated and he lost his seat.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I think the government will last a minimum of 2 years and possibly the entire term. As noted, the NDP is completely broke and with their poor revenue raising record, they will be in no financial means close to mounting a campaign for at least 2 years.

The NDP also have to very careful. They gained a lot of power due to holfing the balance of it but did quite poorly overall. The Greens are eating into their base in most of Canada and the Bloc in Quebec so pulling down the government early will only make their situation worse. The Liberals also won by a very substantial 35 seats so any party that threatens to topple the government will facee the wrath of the citizenry of all parties.

Correct anybody seen to be forcing a snap election will get punished, Trudeau included. The Greens and Cons need to take this time to replace their leaders ASAP.

[WarrenC12]

Saw this great stat on twitter:

Votes required to win one seat:
• Liberals: 37,655
• Bloc Québécois: 43,039
• Conservatives: 50,847
• New Democrats: 118,592
• Greens: 387,249

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by whatnext

I'm going to say again that the Greens were big losers. Their seat count went from 2 to 3, big whoop.

The othe big loser is Bernier, the PPC share of the popular vote was even lower than what polling indicated and he lost his seat.

Yes, I think the time has come for May to pass the torch. Who will take it up, I have no idea.

Bernier has always been a big loser, imho. Next stop, political commentator on French language TV?

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Correct anybody seen to be forcing a snap election will get punished, Trudeau included. The Greens and Cons need to take this time to replace their leaders ASAP.

The art would be to make it happen in plain sight, but not be "seen". Far to early, however, to speculate about when and how. If the wheels don't fall off, the Liberals first choice will be four more years.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Saw this great stat on twitter:

Votes required to win one seat:
• Liberals: 37,655
• Bloc Québécois: 43,039
• Conservatives: 50,847
• New Democrats: 118,592
• Greens: 387,249

The placement of #1 and #2 surprises me.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Saw this great stat on twitter:

Votes required to win one seat:
• Liberals: 37,655
• Bloc Québécois: 43,039
• Conservatives: 50,847
• New Democrats: 118,592
• Greens: 387,249

This is very misleading. The Greens knew where they were competitive and focused their efforts in those ridings. They also happened to get votes in other ridings but those votes weren't "required"; they had no impact on the outcome.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by someone123

This is very misleading. The Greens knew where they were competitive and focused their efforts in those ridings. They also happened to get votes in other ridings but those votes weren't "required"; they had no impact on the outcome.

It's math, and democracy, and FPTP. I didn't make any commentary on it.

[Andy6]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Saw this great stat on twitter:

Votes required to win one seat:
• Liberals: 37,655
• Bloc Québécois: 43,039
• Conservatives: 50,847
• New Democrats: 118,592
• Greens: 387,249

What about the People’s Party?

[CityTech]

Originally Posted by Andy6

What about the People’s Party?

Divide by zero error.

[whatnext]

The other interesting thing is that in the Lower Mainalnd supporting TransMountain didn't seem to cost the Liberals seats. They won the ridings most affected by it. The ridings they lost were ones that were usually Tory but flipped in 2015.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

It's math, and democracy, and FPTP. I didn't make any commentary on it.

It says "votes required to win one seat". In our system, the votes are tallied up by riding, and the parties campaign knowing that this is how it works. The Greens won Nanaimo-Ladysmith with 24,537 votes. Not 387,249.

[kwoldtimer]

I was interested to see that the Green Party candidates in Guelph and in Kitchener Centre finished in second place in their ridings, with over 18000 votes and 14000 votes. respectively.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

I was interested to see that the Green Party candidates in Guelph and in Kitchener Centre finished in second place in their ridings, with over 18000 votes and 14000 votes. respectively.

If only they got another 770,000 votes or so they would have hit the number of votes required to win those seats too!

I was also surprised how well they did in a few ridings. They were not many votes away from winning 5 seats or more. Then again climate change coverage in the news is more hysterical than ever, the NDP imploded during this past election, and there was scandal after scandal for the Liberals. This could be a high water mark for the Greens.

[CityTech]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Is that all? I thought it might be more like 25 - 30.

I actually did the math. Using the formula approved in 2011, and assuming that population growth rates from 2017-2019 carry through to 2019-2021, we'd actually only gain 3 MPs in the 2021 redistribution.

The reason why the increase is so small is because every province's "base allocation" (that is how many they have before things like grandfather clauses and stuff like that are added to the east coast and stuff) is calculated by dividing each province's population by an "electoral quotient", which grows over time. The electoral quotient is increased by a weird formula that uses the average of the 10 population growth rates of the 10 provinces (not weighted though--so a 10% growth in PE would count the same as a 10% growth in ON for this one!). So the reason why we added so many seats in the 2011 distribution was because many of the smaller provinces had very low growth rates in the 2000s which pulled down that average, so the quotient increased by only 7% or so, so provinces with double digit growth rates had way more seats added. But in the 2010s we have lower growth rates in AB and higher growth rates on the east coast, so the quotient grows by 10%, so the faster growing provinces get less of a relative boost.

In fact, Quebec will lose the 3 seats it gained in 2011 using my estimate for 2021 population estimates:

BC: 43 (+1) - 121,359 per seat
AB: 37 (+3) - 121,597 per seat
SK: 14 (flat) - 85,571 per seat
MB: 14 (flat) - 100,279 per seat
ON: 123 (+2) - 122,443 per seat
QC: 75 (-3) - 115,614 per seat
NB: 10 (flat) - 76,689 per seat
NS: 11 (flat) - 90,217 per seat
PE: 4 (flat) - 40,853 per seat
NL: 7 (flat) - 73,536 per seat
Territories: 3 (flat)
Total: 341 (+3)

[once]

I find it strange how the narrative has been this result is a Trudeau victory. Seems to me a Trudeau victory would have been another majority government. As it stands, Trudeau was riding off a sweep and Canadians rebuked his rights to a mandate.

I would call this a Trudeau defeat. He directly contributed to the new rise of the BQ, Conservatives gained quite a few seats (not bad for a notoriously weak leader), and in any other context Singh's NDP would be wiped from the map.

Now there is no more Liberal agenda, there can only be a coalition.

Not a good result for Trudeau, who was riding high 4 years ago and truth be told really didn't do much wrong.