Erin O'Toole's populist/working class strategy

[Docere]

O'Toole is appealing to the "left behind" working class with populist messaging and saying nice things about private sector unions, championing pipelines and the resource sector as a job strategy, combined with some cultural conservatism about "wokeness", Canadian nationalism etc.

Some more orthodox conservatives are apparently calling him "Bernie O'Toole" while liberals and the left are saying he is "taking from Trump's playbook."

Will it work?

One thing I will say: O'Toole is culturally "anglo-Eastern" seems much more politically astute than his predecessor and he is well of aware of the limits of the Conservatives basically functioning as a regional grievance party. Scheer was a bad fit outside the Prairies.

[Dengler Avenue]

saying nice things about private sector unions

Are you saying he’s trying to steal votes from NDP?

[Docere]

Yes he is. Though most union members voted Liberal in the last election.

[Docere]

“Look, I think the writing has been on the wall for actually quite some time on this,” said Patrick Muttart, who was instrumental in shaping the campaign strategy for Harper’s Conservatives in their string of victories from 2006 to 2011. He spoke with the National Post from London, England, where he now works in the private sector.

In 2005, Muttart started using intensive polling data to segment the Canadian population and pinpoint voters to target through tax breaks and tough-on-crime policies. But as he created an ideological map of Canadian voters, he found there was a “white space” made up of voters who are economically moderate or even left-leaning, but culturally conservative.

“They’re not socialist, but they may have left-of-centre instincts on certain things, and are driven more by economic performance rather than economic ideology,” Muttart said.

“But they do tend to be quite culturally conservative in that they believe in the idea of Canadian identity, they believe in the idea of strong, controlled borders, they certainly believe that the justice system needs to be tough but fair,” Muttart said. “And they also have a problem with pervasive political correctness, cancel culture, those sorts of things.”

Muttart, who is not advising O’Toole, said Harper made some progress in recruiting these voters, but it wasn’t a main focus.

“I think under Harper it was more about making traditional conservative economics relevant to the working class, or more white-collar middle class,” he said. “It was selling the agenda to this community. Whereas I think O’Toole is trying to do it the other way around. He’s putting the voter group first and looking to build out policy from that, so the policy is relevant to them.”

https://nationalpost.com/news/politi...ting-coalition

[milomilo]

It's not the pivot I wanted the Conservatives to make. All I want is for them to stop denying climate change (none of this "we believe the science but don't think Canada should do anything" cop out) and stop being troglodytes on social issues. O'Toole appears to be doing fine on the latter, but has yet to credibly do the former.

[Architype]

Well, in the US, it seems the Republicans have stolen the working class electorate from the unwitting Dimocrats, so who says it couldn't happen here too?

[logan5]

If you win the election, haven't you captured the working class vote?

[Architype]

Originally Posted by logan5

If you win the election, haven't you captured the working class vote?

Depends on how you define working class (i.e. prosperous middle class Americans?), anyway, political ideologies in the US have largely reversed from what they used to be historically. After the atrocity of the last four years Biden should have won by a landslide, but didn't.

https://www.livescience.com/34241-de...platforms.html

[jamincan]

Populist messaging is okay - we are a democracy after all. The problem is that politicians who tend to peddle populist messages usually perform a bate and switch and toss those ideas as soon as they are in power, or only play lip service to them. My gauge on whether to treat a politician seriously now is effectively how *unpopulist* their message is - essentially if they have a well-thought out funding model for their promises. If they say they will raise taxes, they have my attention.

[VANRIDERFAN]

Originally Posted by jamincan

Populist messaging is okay - we are a democracy after all. The problem is that politicians who tend to peddle populist messages usually perform a bate and switch and toss those ideas as soon as they are in power, or only play lip service to them. My gauge on whether to treat a politician seriously now is effectively how *unpopulist* their message is - essentially if they have a well-thought out funding model for their promises. If they say they will raise taxes, they have my attention.

"This will be the last first past the post election"

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by milomilo

It's not the pivot I wanted the Conservatives to make. All I want is for them to stop denying climate change (none of this "we believe the science but don't think Canada should do anything" cop out) and stop being troglodytes on social issues. O'Toole appears to be doing fine on the latter, but has yet to credibly do the former.

Same here. This is the worst case scenario. We're going to see the same kind of "know nothing" wilful ignorance and political obstructionism and gridlock they have in the US.

Curious to see how this works out in a country with a parliamentary system. Driving up Prairie turnout to absurd levels last election didn't help the Tories at all.

[wave46]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Same here. This is the worst case scenario. We're going to see the same kind of "know nothing" wilful ignorance and political obstructionism and gridlock they have in the US.

Curious to see how this works out in a country with a parliamentary system. Driving up Prairie turnout to absurd levels last election didn't help the Tories at all.

The political calculus remains different in this country, so I'm not sure what voters the Tories are aiming for.

In general, the suburbs of the GTA are one's key to power. That's not really the 'working class' region that's going to respond to a message like this.

If the goal is to make inroads in rural left-leaning regions (think Northern Ontario/Manitoba, rural Quebec, parts of Atlantic Canada), the Conservative have serious image issues to overcome. Not saying it isn't possible, but it'll be a pretty serious uphill battle. They don't tend to connect with those voters and the policies these voters want run counter to the party's ethos.

I guess one could demonize big-city Canada for being out of touch with smaller regional Canada, but constructing a coherent policy platform will be tough. The differences in regional populations' outlook makes them unlikely allies.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Docere

Yes he is. Though most union members voted Liberal in the last election.

And those would be the voters he's targetting.

[thurmas]

It is smart for Otoole to go after the blue collar union vote as Jagmeet and the NDP are too embarrassed to be associated with them anymore and rather be a downtown urban wokness party. If this helps Otoole in the maritimes parts of Winnipeg, Hamilton Oshawa Windsor Northern Ontario and parts of metro Vancouver all the power to him. Ndp has abandoned their union vote even more so than Hillary and the democrats did in wi,oh,pa and mi. Ndp will I predict be utterly destroyed in the next election and will be lucky to win 10 seats.

[wave46]

Originally Posted by thurmas

It is smart for Otoole to go after the blue collar union vote as Jagmeet and the NDP are too embarrassed to be associated with them anymore and rather be a downtown urban wokness party. If this helps Otoole in the maritimes parts of Winnipeg, Hamilton Oshawa Windsor Northern Ontario and parts of metro Vancouver all the power to him. Ndp has abandoned their union vote even more so than Hillary and the democrats did in wi,oh,pa and mi. Ndp will I predict be utterly destroyed in the next election and will be lucky to win 10 seats.

The problem being that I don't get the sense that the left-leaning areas are a hotbed of resentment, unlike the Rust Belt states that lost thousands of manufacturing jobs.

Also, you've the Bloc Quebecois who have much more natural roots in rural Quebec. The leader of the Conservatives hasn't really connected there since Brian Mulroney. Jack Layton was the last one who bridged the gap, but I suspect the political leanings of the NDP and BQ are much closer.

I don't know. The polar views of the rural regions of this country make any long-term alliance a dubious one. Maybe if they get angry enough is the only way I see it happening.

[Dengler Avenue]

Maybe O’Toole’s like, “Okay, one shoe size doesn’t fit all.”
I simply wonder how regionally targeted policies will sell within the party itself.

[thurmas]

At least otoole is being creative and actually trying to craft the party strategically to do better in peticular voting blocks. Can anyone on here EVER envision Andrew Scheer doing this? He was so lazy and bland and literally just took one of Stephen Harpers old campaigns and used it again there were zero new policies in there at all.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by thurmas

At least otoole is being creative and actually trying to craft the party strategically to do better in peticular voting blocks. Can anyone on here EVER envision Andrew Scheer doing this? He was so lazy and bland and literally just took one of Stephen Harpers old campaigns and used it again there were zero new policies in there at all.

To be fair, what we've seen from O'Toole so far is a strategy/tactic. What policy or policies he attaches to it remain to be seen. Will he, for example, demand that service McJobs (for example) be unionized? That gig economy work benefit from full employment benefits?

[wave46]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

To be fair, what we've seen from O'Toole so far is a strategy/tactic. What policy or policies he attaches to it remain to be seen. Will he, for example, demand that service McJobs (for example) be unionized? That gig economy work benefit from full employment benefits?

My observation has been that these types stoke anger but are thin on solutions. That's not necessarily a fatal flaw, but unless there's critical mass of anger and something they can rally around, it's a fizzle.

Protectionism? Not really a Conservative thing. Immigration? Maybe, but Conservative-friendly businesses like the downward pressure immigration keeps on wages. Unions? Um, no.

So, what's the uniting cry?

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by wave46

My observation has been that these types stoke anger but are thin on solutions. That's not necessarily a fatal flaw, but unless there's critical mass of anger and something they can rally around, it's a fizzle.

Protectionism? Not really a Conservative thing. Immigration? Maybe, but Conservative-friendly businesses like the downward pressure immigration keeps on wages. Unions? Um, no.

So, what's the uniting cry?

So far, "Beware evil China" seems to be a leading element. That could turn out to be a winner for him, although it could also be coopted by the Liberals, if it looks like it's resonating. It's hard to imagine Canadians uniting in response to a foreign policy issue.