US Census Bureau data for Austin and other cities

[drummer]

Great, so I'll just say 2.3 million. Makes it easier. Besides, I like to include Burnet County's 50K or so and Blanco County's 6 people.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by The ATX

2020 Metro numbers are starting to come out. We are slightly behind Pittsburgh at #29 largest metro. We would have passed Pittsburgh since the census was taken.



https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/n...opulation.html

I believe these are just the yearly estimates, so they'll be invalidated as soon as the real census numbers come out later this year.

"The Austin metro now ranks as the 29th largest, up one spot from the year prior, among the country's largest metros, behind Las Vegas, Pittsburgh and Sacramento, Calif."

We were already 29th last year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php...did=1020439270

[GoldenBoot]

Originally Posted by Novacek

I believe these are just the yearly estimates, so they'll be invalidated as soon as the real census numbers come out later this year.

"The Austin metro now ranks as the 29th largest, up one spot from the year prior, among the country's largest metros, behind Las Vegas, Pittsburgh and Sacramento, Calif."

We were already 29th last year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php...did=1020439270

Yes, that number is the estimate for July 1, 2020. The census will reflect the population as of April 1, 2020. Based on the bureau's July 1 estimate, it's my guess that the April 1, 2020 census will be around 2.285 million (2,284,885). FWIW, my running analytics projected the July 1, 2020 population to be 2,298,645 - so, I'm a little off.

With the record-breaking population growth of Austin in 2020 - I would expect the July 1, 2021 estimate to be in the neighborhood of 2.37 million (*actual estimate to be released next year).

[Novacek]

I finally found the data.

https://www.census.gov/programs-surv...estimates.html

Looks like Pittsburgh continued to shrink, now we're only ~14k back from them.

(with the caveat that these numbers could change more for the census if they've been under/over estimating anyone).

[ILUVSAT]

Originally Posted by Novacek

I finally found the data.

https://www.census.gov/programs-surv...estimates.html

Looks like Pittsburgh continued to shrink, now we're only ~14k back from them.

(with the caveat that these numbers could change more for the census if they've been under/over estimating anyone).

I'm getting gibberish when I open the dataset. It's not opening in excel - like it used to. Any tips?


*EDIT: Figured it out. Thanks though.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by Novacek

I finally found the data.

https://www.census.gov/programs-surv...estimates.html

Looks like Pittsburgh continued to shrink, now we're only ~14k back from them.

(with the caveat that these numbers could change more for the census if they've been under/over estimating anyone).

Is there July 1, 2020 data for municipalities?

I’d love to update my signature with something more current, although I should probably just wait until the 2020 census results are fully out.

The full area in my signature in these figures is 5,899,717.

For anyone interested, my signature is modeled after this research:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wir...not-cities/amp

(Edit: upon reflection, I need to ditch College Station and add the Hill Country).

[KevinFromTexas]

Originally Posted by wwmiv

Is there July 1, 2020 data for municipalities?

I’d love to update my signature with something more current, although I should probably just wait until the 2020 census results are fully out.

I don't think the July 2020 estimates are out yet for municipalities. The latest one is for July 2019, and that number is 978,908 for Austin.

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/t...and-towns.html

[ILUVSAT]

QUESTION: Why didn't Austin become part of a CSA (with someone like Blanco and/or Burnet County)? San Antonio is now part of a larger CSA.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by KevinFromTexas

I don't think the July 2020 estimates are out yet for municipalities. The latest one is for July 2019, and that number is 978,908 for Austin.

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/t...and-towns.html

Thank you.

[wwmiv]

Just read this interesting data nugget from the 2018 ACS:

New data recently released by the Census Bureau’s the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES) program show that of the 1,004,341 jobs located in the Austin region, 74.4% (or 747,713) are held by residents who also live in the Austin metro. The other 256,628 jobs (25.6%) are filled by commuters coming in from outside of the five-county metro. An additional 219,871 jobs are held by residents of the Austin MSA region who travel to another county for their work.

https://www.austinchamber.com/blog/1...uting-patterns

The whole article has some great graphics and data analysis/summary.

[DaveinWimberley]

Big Census dump TODAY, August 12!
I'm sure there will be lots to pore over.

[JoninATX]

2,283,371 is the official count for the Austin area. The area ranks 28th behind Pittsburgh on the census web page, but I'm fully confident that Austin surpassed Pittsburgh that same year.

The San Antonio metro area has 2,558,143 residents last year surpassing Portland, OR. This puts San Antonio the 24th largest metro area.

Temple/ Killeen area stood at 475,367 making it the 118th largest metro area in the country.

Waco at 277,547. There has been significant growth for the area in the past 10 yrs adding 25,000+ new residents.

https://www.census.gov/library/visua...tate-data.html

[loonytoony]

https://www.statesman.com/story/news...th/8097299002/

"Austin's population topped 961,000, a gain of 21.7% from over the last 10 years, according to official 2020 census data released Thursday.

The data caps off another remarkable decade of growth for Texas' capital. The city has not yet had a decade of growth under double digits since its population first started being tracked in 1840.

The official tally came in slightly under 2020 estimates which showed Austin's population at 995,000. The milestone of crossing 1 million people remains elusive. The city also fell just outside of becoming a top 10 population city, short of San Jose, Calif."

Sooooo close to top 10.

[Camelback]

^ So close to 1 million!

[valhalla]

I'm a little confused. I remember numerous media outlets reporting that Austin had passed the 1 million mark last year. Does this mean those reports were wrong. Or just that we passed the 1 million mark after the census data was collected?

[The ATX]

Originally Posted by valhalla

I'm a little confused. I remember numerous media outlets reporting that Austin had passed the 1 million mark last year. Does this mean those reports were wrong. Or just that we passed the 1 million mark after the census data was collected?

Those reports were based on COA current population estimates, not the Census.

[wwmiv]

Note: I will be continually adding detail to this over the next few weeks. All estimates are for July 1, 2020. Yes, the census did an April 1, 2020 estimate for statewide units, but did not do that for county or municipality units, so for consistency I am just using the July 1, 2020 number everywhere. Regions are CSAs, Metros are MSAs, cities are the primary municipality with an actual urban core, suburbs are the balance of the metropolitan area minus that city, and exurbs are the counties comprising the MSAs and mSAs in the balance of the CSA. Satellite Cities are directly adjacent MSAs and mSAs to the main Region but that are not part of the CSA.

—————

Texas 2020: 29,145,505
Texas 2010: 25,145,561
Growth: 3,999,944 (15.9%)
Estimate: 29,360,759
Error: -215,254 (.7%)

—————

Austin Region 2020: 2,353,374
Austin Region 2010: 1,778,340
Growth: +575,034 (32.3%)
Estimate: 2,366,944
Error: -13,570 (.6%)

*Austin had one but then the census bureau took it away. Just for grins, I am pretending it still has one.

Austin Metro 2020: 2,283,371
Austin Metro 2010: 1,716,289
Growth: +567,082 (33.0%)
Weighted Density: 4,569 ppsm
Estimate: 2,295,303
Error: -11,932 (.5%)

Austin 2020: 961,855
Austin 2010: 790,390
Growth: +171,465 (21.7%)
Estimate: 995,484
Error: -33,629 (3.5%)

Suburbs 2020: 1,321,516
Suburbs 2010: 925,899
Growth: +395,617 (42.7%)
Estimate: 1,299,819
Error: +21,697 (1.6%)

Exurbs 2020: 70,373
Exurbs 2010: 62,051
Growth: +8,322 (13.4%)
Estimate: 71,611
Error: -1,238 (1.8%)

Satellite Cities:

Ft. Hood Metro 2020: 475,367
Ft. Hood Metro 2010: 405,300
Growth: +70,067 (17.3%)
Estimate: 468,453
Error: +6,914 (1.4%)

Waco Metro 2020: 277,547
Waco Metro 2010: 252,772
Growth: +24,775 (9.8%)
Estimate: 277,005
Error: +542 (.1%)

Discussion:

Austin has 15 census tracts with densities over 10k ppsm, populated by 63,284 people. Most of these are urban or rapidly becoming urban. Round Rock has 1 populated by 4,256 people. San Marcos has 2 with 10,868 people. Altogether, the average person in the Austin metropolitan area lives in a census tract with a population density of 4,569 people per square mile (weighted population density).

Austin is still just shy of 1,000,000 in the 2020 census, but it has probably (although not certainly) surpassed that mark by now. Austin's suburbs (the balance of the metropolitan area's population outside of the city itself) added more than double the number of people that the city itself added, and even though it started from a higher base in 2010 the rate of growth is still higher than the city itself. The suburbs as a whole now comprise over 1.3 million residents. As for the city, no large core city in any unipolar metropolitan area anywhere in the country matched the rate of growth and only a few matched the numerical growth. The exurbs (the two counties which SHOULD compose a micropolitan area to the west of Austin, and will... again... eventually) in the Highland Lakes also experienced strong growth.

Austin's northern satellite cities (Temple, Killeen, Waco, and Belton) anchor two metropolitan areas which also both experienced strong growth relative to nationally. The Fort Hood metropolitan area (Killeen, Temple, Belton) grew at a similar rate to the state as a whole, while Waco grew at a similar - and more manageable - rate to the country as a whole. I'd expect both of these metropolitan areas to experience stronger growth in the coming decade as people are priced out of Austin, and economic activity expands and decamps to the surrounding area. Salado, Jarrell, Florence, Liberty Hill, and Taylor are all already seeing signs of massive upcoming suburban growth and expansion at more reasonable price points for entry and mid-level, for instance.

—————

San Antonio Region 2020: 2,576,528
San Antonio Region 2010: 2,159,752
Growth: +416,776 (19.3%)
Estimate: 2,611,111
Error: -34,683 (1.3%)

San Antonio Metro 2020: 2,558,143
San Antonio Metro 2010: 2,142,508
Growth: +415,635 (19.4%)
Weighted Density:
Estimate: 2,590,732
Error: -32,589 (1.3%)

San Antonio 2020: 1,434,625
San Antonio 2010: 1,327,407
Growth: +107,218 (8.1%)
Estimate: 1,567,118
Error: -132,493 (9.2%)

Suburbs 2020: 1,123,518
Suburbs 2010: 815,101
Growth: +308,417 (37.8%)
Estimate: 1,023,614
Error: +99,904 (8.9%)

Exurbs 2020: 18,385
Exurbs 2010: 17,217
Growth: +1,168 (6.8%)
Estimate: 20,379
Error: -1,994 (10.8%)

Satellite Towns:

Satellite Towns 2020: 214,076
Satellite Towns 2010: 204,004
Growth: +10,072 (4.9%)
Estimate: 213,977
Error: +99 (0%)

Uvalde, Kerrville, Fredericksburg, Eagle Pass, and Del Rio Micropolitan Areas in sum.

Discussion:

San Antonio has 6 precincts with population densities over 10k ppsm, populated by 33,299 people. All of the precincts are suburban and dominated by gated communities with apartment complexes on their peripheries.

Despite being dramatically overestimated throughout the decade, San Antonio still posted respectable growth. That overestimation was a boon to its suburbs though, where the growth was actually occurring. San Antonio's suburbs surpassed the million mark and now comprise over 1.1 million people in a growth rate almost matching the Austin suburbs. One small wrinkle? Almost ALL of that growth occurred in San Antonio's northern suburbs, and I'd bet a not insubstantial portion of that is to do with Austin's gangbusters growth and residential prices. I know multiple people, including myself, who regularly commute between the two (I did so daily for seven months). The one exurban micropolitan area, Frio County, had alright growth.

I have summed together all of the individual micropolitan areas surrounding San Antonio's metropolitan area as a "satellite towns" grouping, and the topline perhaps obscures a crucial dynamic: ease of connection to San Antonio is correlated with growth. The two easiest commutes, via interstate 10, into and out of the city saw the strongest growth (Kerrville and Fredericksburg, 6 and 7.6, respectively). Eagle Pass, also over 6 percent, is further afield but close to an interstate as well. Del Rio and Uvalde, on the other hand, both saw reductions in their populations and lack an interstate connection to, or partial interstate route into, San Antonio. Overall, the area is largely static in population.

—————

DFW Region 2020: 8,121,108
DFW Region 2010: 6,807,747
Growth: +1,313,361
Estimate: 8,186,093
Error: -64,985 (.8%)

DFW Metro 2020: 7,637,387
DFW Metro 2010: 6,366,542
Growth: +1,270,845 (20.0%)
Weighted Density:
Estimate: 7,694,138
Error: -56,751 (.7%)

Dallas 2020: 1,304,379
Dallas 2010: 1,197,816
Growth: +106,563 (8.9%)
Estimate: 1,343,266
Error: -38,887 (3.0%)

Fort Worth 2020: 918,915
Forth Worth 2010: 741,206
Growth: +177,709 (24.0%)
Estimate: 927,720
Error: -8,805 (1.0%)

Dallas Suburbs 2020: 3,825,587
Dallas Suburbs 2010: 3,031,904
Growth: +793,683 (26.2%)
Estimate: 3,829,118
Error: -3,521 (.1%)

Fort Worth Suburbs 2020: 1,588,506
Fort Worth Suburbs 2010: 1,395,616
Growth: +192,890 (13.8%)
Estimate: 1,594,484
Error: -5,978 (.1%)

Exurbs 2020: 483,721 (inc. 46,067 in Oklahoma)
Exurbs 2010: 441,205 (inc. 42,416 in Oklahoma)
Growth: +42,516 (9.6%) (inc. +3,651 in Oklahoma)
Estimate: 491,955 (inc. 48,998 in Oklahoma)
Error: -8,234 (1.7%)

Satellite Towns:

Stephenville Micro 2020:
Stephenville Micro 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 43,224
Error:

Sulfur Springs Micro 2020:
Sulfur Springs Micro 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 37,170
Error:

Paris Micro 2020:
Paris Micro 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 49,905
Error:

Mt. Pleasant Micro 2020:
Mt. Pleasant Micro 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 45,986
Error:

Discussion:

54,893 people live in precincts in the Dallas metro above 20,000 ppsm, almost all of which are in Dallas itself or Dallas County.

—————

Houston Region 2020: 7,312,270
Houston Region 2010: 6,099,977
Growth: +1,212,293 (19.9%)
Estimate: 7,340,823
Error: -28,553 (.4%)

Houston Metro 2020: 7,122,240
Houston Metro 2010: 5,920,416
Growth: +1,201,824 (20.3%)
Weighted Density:
Estimate: 7,154,478
Error: -32,238 (.5%)

Houston 2020: 2,304,580
Houston 2010: 2,100,263
Growth: +204,317 (9.7%)
Estimate: 2,316,120
Error: -11,540 (.5%)

Suburbs 2020: 4,817,660
Suburbs 2020: 3,820,153
Growth: +997,457 (26.1%)
Estimate: 4,838,358
Error: -20,698 (.4%)

Exurbs 2020: 190,030
Exurbs 2010: 179,561
Growth: +10,469 (5.8%)
Estimate: 186,345
Error: +3,685 (1.9%)

Satellite Cities:

Beaumont Metro 2020: 397,656
Beaumont Metro 2010: 388,745
Growth: +8,911 (2.3%)
Estimate: 391,310
Error: -6,346 (1.6%)

Bryan Metro 2020: 268,248
Bryan Metro 2010: 228,660
Growth: +39,588 (17.3%)
Estimate: 268,224
Error: -24 (0%)

—————

Corpus Christi Region 2020:
Corpus Christi Region 2010:
Growth:
Estimate:
Error:

Corpus Christi Metro 2020:
Corpus Christi Metro 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 430,217
Error:

Corpus Christi 2020:
Corpus Christi 2010:
Growth:
Estimate:
Error:

Suburbs 2020:
Suburbs 2010:
Growth:
Estimate:
Error:

Exurbs 2020:
Exurbs 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 23814 + 30717 + 51510
Error:

Satellite Cities:

Victoria Region 2020
Victoria Region 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 99,562 + 21,001
Error:

Beeville Micro 2020:
Beeville Micro 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 32,513
Error:

—————

Laredo Metro 2020:
Laredo Metro 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 277,681
Error:

Zapata Micro 2020:
Zapata Micro 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 14,172
Error:

—————

RGV Region 2020:
RGV Region 2010:
Growth:
Estimate:
Error:

McAllen Metro 2020:
McAllen Metro 2010
Growth:
Estimate: 875,200
Error:

Brownsville Metro 2020:
Brownsville Metro 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 424,180
Error:

RGV Region Exurbs 2020:
RGV Region Exurbs 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 21160 + 64266
Error:

Note: I combined the two CSAs for the region here.

—————

El Paso Metro 2020: 867,859
El Paso Metro 2010: 804,123
Growth: +64,736 (8.1%)
Estimate: 846,192
Error: +21,667 (2.5%)

The census bureau did not pick up on some pretty substantial growth in El Paso.

—————

Amarillo Region 2020:
Amarillo Region 2010:
Growth:
Estimate:
Error:

Amarillo Metro 2020:
Amarillo Metro 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 265,761
Error:

Amarillo 2020:
Amarillo 2010:
Growth:
Estimate:
Error:

Suburbs 2020:
Suburbs 2010:
Growth:
Estimate:
Error:

Exurbs 2020:
Exurbs 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 43,148
Error:

Satellite Cities:

Hereford Micro 2020:
Hereford Micro 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 18,277
Error:

Dumas Micro 2020:
Dumas Micro 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 20,654
Error:

—————

Lubbock Region 2020:
Lubbock Region 2010:
Growth:
Estimate:
Error:

Lubbock Metro 2020:
Lubbock Metro 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 326,264
Error:

Lubbock 2020:
Lubbock 2010:
Growth:
Estimate:
Error:

Suburbs 2020:
Suburbs 2010:
Growth:
Estimate:
Error:

Exurbs 2020:
Exurbs 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 55,675
Error:

Satellite Cities:

Lamesa Micro 2020:
Lamesa Micro 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 12,974
Error:

—————

Midland/Odessa Region 2020:
Midland/Odessa Region 2010:
Growth:
Estimate:
Error:

Midland Metro 2020:
Midland Metro 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 183,679
Error:

Odessa Metro 2020:
Odessa Metro 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 167,701
Error:

Satellite Cities:

Andrews Micro 2020:
Andrews Micro 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 18,879
Error:

Big Spring Micro 2020:
Big Spring Micro 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 36,540
Error:

Pecos Micro 2020:
Pecos Micro 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 16,130
Error:

—————

Abilene Metro 2020:
Abilene Metro 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 173,185
Error:

Satellite Cities:

Brownwood Micro 2020:
Brownwood Micro 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 37,633
Error:

Sweetwater Micro 2020:
Sweetwater Micro 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 14,835
Error:

Snyder Micro 2020:
Snyder Micro 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 16,662
Error:

—————

Wichita Falls Metro 2020:
Wichita Falls Metro 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 152,485
Error:

Vernon Micro 2020:
Vernon Micro 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 12,552
Error:

—————

San Angelo Metro 2020:
San Angelo Metro 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 122,889
Error:

—————

Tyler/Jacksonville Region 2020:
Tyler/Jacksonville Region 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 235,806 + 52,875
Error:

Longview/Marshall Metro 2020:
Longview/Marshall Metro 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 287,105
Error:

Satellite Cities:

Palestine Micro 2020:
Palestine Micro 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 57,805
Error:

Nacogdoches Micro 2020:
Nacogdoches Micro 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 64,753
Error:

Lufkin Micro 2020:
Lufkin Micro 2010:
Growth:
Estimate: 86,796
Error:

—————

Texarkana Metro 2020:
Texarkana Metro 2010: 149,198
Growth:
Estimate: 148,838
Error:

Texas/Texarkana 2020:
Texas/Texarkana 2010: 92,565
Growth:
Estimate: 93,481
Error:

Arkansas/Texarkana 2020:
Arkansas/Texarkana 2010: 56,633
Growth:
Estimate: 55,357
Error:






Note: I will be filling this out as I go. It may take a few days, or weeks.

[Lobotomizer]

Thanks for the breakdown wwmiv.

Is there a possibility any counties are added to the Austin MSA, or that it will become part of a CSA?

I remember for a very short time around the last census Burnet County was made a micropolitan area, and added to the Austin metro to form a CSA.

But without any explanation all proof of it's existence disappeared.

[East7thStreet]

To see the official census for Texas cities (and state) come in so low versus the estimates in obviously booming cities and then to see the official New York numbers drastically higher than estimates seems...... off.

[Echostatic]

NYC specifically was known to be undercounted in the 2010 Census.