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  #81  
Old Posted Feb 29, 2020, 4:15 AM
LakeLocker LakeLocker is offline
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Originally Posted by LakeLocker View Post
The simpliest thing I can say is no one is an expert on how to gauge this, because this has literally never happened before.

The whole planet is dependent on globalized international commerce.

If we have to shut down international mobility we're really in a tough spot.

The danger of this virus is that it is tied into a nation with such poor hygiene skills, yet economically and socially hard wired to completely ignore the protocols set up by the CCP.

Modern day China has the worst of both worlds at the moment. Its people are incredibly mobile and it is hard to imagine this disease being stoppable if they approach 1 million infections. If the virus continues to spread I'm sure you'll see it span across China by the end of the month, traveling faster within areas not under the Quarantine zone.

In contrast their hospitals and people are radically ill prepared for transmission prevention, as a lot of these institutions are 3rd world.

Regardless I'm more concerned about the global economy. I really believe this could cause another 2008 styled economic crisis. My understanding is that we're overdue for such an event.
Just thrown this post in here I made it a month ago and it appears to have held up quite well.
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  #82  
Old Posted Feb 29, 2020, 5:04 AM
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Originally Posted by LakeLocker View Post
It's not a fear it is a fact.





You seem to be confusing the affects of the virus with a head cold.

You also seem to be assuming that the people that don't die are all magically fine as long as they don't die.

It isn't just killing people it is causing permanent damage to the bodies of the survivors.

I get that modern people are unaware of how permanent damage is done from a virus but it is as big as of a concern as all the deaths.

We're not all gonna die, but it is very likely to be the worst thing that has happened to the west since WW2.

The damage that is will be done will be complex but it is still a very real thing.

I'm well versed in what a virus is, thanks.

The majority of people who get this virus have a mild illness, not much worse than a head cold.

Pretty much every respiratory virus can cause a range of symptoms, ranging from simple coryza to permanent lung damage. I see people all the time that have viral pneumonia from bugs that in most people would only cause the common cold.
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  #83  
Old Posted Feb 29, 2020, 5:13 AM
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Originally Posted by LakeLocker View Post
Just thrown this post in here I made it a month ago and it appears to have held up quite well.
Except, you know, your claim that it would spread rapidly across China. The virus is almost completely under control outside of Hubei (and even within Hubei it's going the right direction), and the WHO's team of international experts has stated unequivocally that Chinese policies have done a good job of limiting the spread of the virus within the country, and buying time for the rest of the world to prepare.
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  #84  
Old Posted Feb 29, 2020, 7:51 AM
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Bill Gates: Coronavirus may be ‘once-in-a-century pathogen we’ve been worried about’

Published Fri, Feb 28 20202:29 PM EST
Updated Fri, Feb 28 20203:47 PM EST
Noah Higgins-Dunn@higginsdunn

Key Points
  • Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates said the coronavirus is starting to behave like the “once-in-a-century pathogen we’ve been worried about.”
  • Gates also pointed out COVID-19′s current predicted fatality rate is higher than that of the 1957 influenza pandemic, which killed an estimated 66,000 people in the U.S.
  • “I hope it’s not that bad, but we should assume it will be until we know otherwise,” Gates said in an article.

Billionaire and Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates said the coronavirus that has killed at least 2,859 people and infected more than 83,700 globally may be the “once-in-a-century pathogen we’ve been worried about.”

“I hope it’s not that bad, but we should assume it will be until we know otherwise,” Gates wrote in an article published Friday in The New England Journal of Medicine.

Gates and his wife, Melinda, founded The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation in 2000 to help improve world health and combat extreme poverty. The foundation announced Feb. 5 that it would donate $100 million to help find treatments and expand testing for the virus, particularly for poorer populations.

According to Gates, COVID-19 poses a serious threat to the world because it’s far more deadly and contagious than many other deadly viruses.

“First, it can kill healthy adults in addition to elderly people with existing health problems,” he wrote. “Second, Covid-19 is transmitted quite efficiently. The average infected person spreads the disease to two or three others — an exponential rate of increase.” World health leaders say the disease is spread by people who are mildly ill or don’t show any symptoms at all, making it harder to contain and more contagious than other types of viruses.

The mortality rate is “many times more severe than typical seasonal influenza,” Gates said. The World Health Organization said the mortality rate of COVID-19 can differ, ranging from 0.7% to up to 4%, depending on the quality of the health-care system where it’s treated. Gates said that its current average estimated fatality rate of around 1% places it somewhere between the 1957 Asian flu pandemic (0.6%) that killed 1.1 million people and the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic (2%) that killed 50 million around the world, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Gates is sounding the alarm to world leaders to try to help slow the spread of the virus, calling on developed countries to help less wealthy nations prepare.

Many low- and middle-income countries’ “health systems are already stretched thin, and a pathogen like the coronavirus can quickly overwhelm them,” Gates wrote. “And poorer countries have little political or economic leverage, given wealthier countries’ natural desire to put their own people first.”

WHO officials have echoed Gates’ concern about the virus infiltrating low- and middle-income countries with health systems that are too weak to support a potential outbreak. In January, the organization identified 13 top priority countries with direct links or high volume of travel to China, including Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia and Ghana.

...

Fellow billionaire and Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett has also called Gates his “science advisor” and added that he has discussed the coronavirus with him. Buffett said Gates was “bullish” on the long-term outlook for a universal prevention of the disease.

...

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/bill...-pathogen.html
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  #85  
Old Posted Feb 29, 2020, 8:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Corndogger View Post
Bill Gates: Coronavirus may be ‘once-in-a-century pathogen we’ve been worried about’

Published Fri, Feb 28 20202:29 PM EST
Updated Fri, Feb 28 20203:47 PM EST
Noah Higgins-Dunn@higginsdunn

Key Points
  • Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates said the coronavirus is starting to behave like the “once-in-a-century pathogen we’ve been worried about.”
  • Gates also pointed out COVID-19′s current predicted fatality rate is higher than that of the 1957 influenza pandemic, which killed an estimated 66,000 people in the U.S.
  • “I hope it’s not that bad, but we should assume it will be until we know otherwise,” Gates said in an article.

Billionaire and Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates said the coronavirus that has killed at least 2,859 people and infected more than 83,700 globally may be the “once-in-a-century pathogen we’ve been worried about.”

“I hope it’s not that bad, but we should assume it will be until we know otherwise,” Gates wrote in an article published Friday in The New England Journal of Medicine.

Gates and his wife, Melinda, founded The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation in 2000 to help improve world health and combat extreme poverty. The foundation announced Feb. 5 that it would donate $100 million to help find treatments and expand testing for the virus, particularly for poorer populations.

According to Gates, COVID-19 poses a serious threat to the world because it’s far more deadly and contagious than many other deadly viruses.

“First, it can kill healthy adults in addition to elderly people with existing health problems,” he wrote. “Second, Covid-19 is transmitted quite efficiently. The average infected person spreads the disease to two or three others — an exponential rate of increase.” World health leaders say the disease is spread by people who are mildly ill or don’t show any symptoms at all, making it harder to contain and more contagious than other types of viruses.

The mortality rate is “many times more severe than typical seasonal influenza,” Gates said. The World Health Organization said the mortality rate of COVID-19 can differ, ranging from 0.7% to up to 4%, depending on the quality of the health-care system where it’s treated. Gates said that its current average estimated fatality rate of around 1% places it somewhere between the 1957 Asian flu pandemic (0.6%) that killed 1.1 million people and the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic (2%) that killed 50 million around the world, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Gates is sounding the alarm to world leaders to try to help slow the spread of the virus, calling on developed countries to help less wealthy nations prepare.

Many low- and middle-income countries’ “health systems are already stretched thin, and a pathogen like the coronavirus can quickly overwhelm them,” Gates wrote. “And poorer countries have little political or economic leverage, given wealthier countries’ natural desire to put their own people first.”

WHO officials have echoed Gates’ concern about the virus infiltrating low- and middle-income countries with health systems that are too weak to support a potential outbreak. In January, the organization identified 13 top priority countries with direct links or high volume of travel to China, including Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia and Ghana.

...

Fellow billionaire and Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett has also called Gates his “science advisor” and added that he has discussed the coronavirus with him. Buffett said Gates was “bullish” on the long-term outlook for a universal prevention of the disease.

...

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/bill...-pathogen.html
Technically speaking the coronavirus preys on the old, the ill, and the weak. If you were going to have a Nazi-like program to strengthen nations then this virus is it. Economically speaking once the virus dies out we should emerge stronger given that it preys on the elderly who are generally burdens to society. It will also prey on youth with weakened systems such as drug addicts and the poor. And btw poor in a global context is a hell load different than what it means in Canada. Thats assuming it does spread and infect much of the world.

I realize the above sounds awful but it is logical. That said, I suspect a vaccine will be out long before it becomes widespread in Western nations. We're less than 1 month away from Israel's vaccine being completed and about 5 months away from when it passes approvals and can be sold.

This is much more likely to impact Africa, India, and the Middle East because vaccines will reach there long after we get them while infections there are currently increasing rapidly.

For all the crap we talk about being socially-progressive there's no way we are going to send our vaccine doses East to poor nations who are at higher risk of infection before we are vaccinated.
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  #86  
Old Posted Feb 29, 2020, 8:15 AM
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Every infectious illness disproportionately affects the frail. God, you’re such a bad poster.
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  #87  
Old Posted Feb 29, 2020, 8:29 AM
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Every infectious illness disproportionately affects the frail. God, you’re such a bad poster.
Has China provided a breakdown by age category for those infected and those who have died from this outbreak?
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  #88  
Old Posted Feb 29, 2020, 8:38 AM
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Has China provided a breakdown by age category for those infected and those who have died from this outbreak?
I posted this on page 2 which should be an indication that besides sick days it won’t affect the productive portion of the world population. Of course there’s always irrational fear that will affect productivity.

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  #89  
Old Posted Feb 29, 2020, 9:04 AM
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Originally Posted by Corndogger View Post
Has China provided a breakdown by age category for those infected and those who have died from this outbreak?
Here's a website that breaks down the demographics quite well.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...-demographics/

One other interesting stat is that the death rate for men is considerably higher than that of women - I wouldn't be surprised if this reflects the fact that Chinese men smoke at a considerably higher rate than Chinese women.
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  #90  
Old Posted Feb 29, 2020, 12:23 PM
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Costco in Gatineau last night had employees wiping down the handles of every single shopping cart taken by customers as they entered the store.
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  #91  
Old Posted Feb 29, 2020, 2:58 PM
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Turns out it was a false alarm in Manitoba.
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  #92  
Old Posted Feb 29, 2020, 4:15 PM
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China also has their smog to deal with, although that might be temporarily reduced since everyone is under quarantine.
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  #93  
Old Posted Feb 29, 2020, 5:11 PM
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China also has their smog to deal with, although that might be temporarily reduced since everyone is under quarantine.
I'm sure that increases the impact of a respiratory virus for sure.
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  #94  
Old Posted Feb 29, 2020, 5:12 PM
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As of today, in Canada. 12 confirmed cases, 6 recoveries, 0 deaths.

Can we panic a little more maybe?
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  #95  
Old Posted Feb 29, 2020, 5:16 PM
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How do people recover? What are the demographics? I’ve always been wondering.
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We'll soon begin work to extend Highway 417 to Renfrew, first replacing the intersection of Calabogie Road with an interchange!

On va prolonger l'Autoroute 417 jusqu'à Renfrew à bientôt, tout en remplaçant l'intersection du Chemin Calabogie à un échangeur d'abord!
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  #96  
Old Posted Feb 29, 2020, 6:12 PM
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How do people recover? What are the demographics? I’ve always been wondering.
It's generally like the flu. Coronaviruses have been around a long time. The symptoms are pretty typical for most people, but there is a relatively higher incidence of viral pneumonia with COVID-19. The risk of viral pneumonia is higher if you are immunosuppressed, elderly or have preexisting cardiorespiratory disease. Once you develop antibodies to COVID-19, your viral load will go down and you will recover.

For most healthy adults under the age of about 65-70, the relative risk most of the time is pretty low, but increases exponentially, especially over the age of 75, with a 15% mortality rate into the 80s. Older individuals are most likely to have preexisting cardiorespiratory disease, with lessened cardiopulmonary reserve, therefore a superimposed viral pneumonia can be the kiss of death.

Your ability to transmit COVID-19 increases with your viral load. The latency is probably on the order of 14 days or so, and for the majority of this prodrome, you are probably not infectious. There probably is a period of several days though before you become symptomatic that you are infectious. Once you become symptomatic, you should be considered infectious until your symptoms resolve. For most people, that would be about a week. If you have a severe viral pneumonia, especially if you develop a superimposed bacteria pneumonia (greenish sputum), you could be ill considerably longer.

Unless you are moderately to severely short of breath, or if you have evidence of complications like bacterial pneumonia, you should self isolate at home. If you go to the ER, you will just end up infecting others. It would be best to call a medical help line or your family doctor first to determine what you should do. In a true pandemic situation, the regional health authorities will develop off site treatment and evaluation centres well away from the hospitals themselves.
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  #97  
Old Posted Feb 29, 2020, 6:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Acajack View Post
Costco in Gatineau last night had employees wiping down the handles of every single shopping cart taken by customers as they entered the store.
This is so ridiculous. Apparently there's panic buying of toilet paper and instant noodles in the Costco in Richmond (no surprise). Now, there's a toilet paper mill right her in Metro Vancouver so I'm not sure where the hysteria comes from, but whatever.
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  #98  
Old Posted Feb 29, 2020, 6:20 PM
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Originally Posted by theman23 View Post
Pretty much every respiratory virus can cause a range of symptoms, ranging from simple coryza to permanent lung damage. I see people all the time that have viral pneumonia from bugs that in most people would only cause the common cold.
This cold and flu season was pretty annoying for the people I know in the Vancouver area and it was interesting to see how everybody reacted.

A lot of people went to the ER or clinics with cold and flu symptoms and were given antibiotics that predictably did nothing. This is worse than them just staying home. Are people who act like this going to panic and swamp ERs when they have the sniffles because they think they're going to die from coronavirus?

A lot of people thought they could tell what they had and "knew" where they got it from, and had all kinds of strange theories of resistance and transmission.

A lot of people confused symptoms and causes, e.g. they think that one person gives another person bronchitis and conversely you can't get bronchitis unless somebody around you has it. If you think this way you may believe, for example, that it's okay to head to the old folks' home if you feel just a little sick because you can't give anybody there anything serious.

Also, most people I know didn't bother to get a flu shot. But they're also not high risk. I don't understand this when the flu shot is around 70% effective for healthy adults and so many people still get the flu every year. Lots of people want to take antibiotics when they have the flu but won't get a flu shot ahead of time!
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  #99  
Old Posted Feb 29, 2020, 6:38 PM
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This is so ridiculous. Apparently there's panic buying of toilet paper and instant noodles in the Costco in Richmond (no surprise). Now, there's a toilet paper mill right her in Metro Vancouver so I'm not sure where the hysteria comes from, but whatever.
Lol yeah so many people were buying toilet paper at Costco Richmond yesterday including myself.

Though the lines weren’t out of the ordinary for Costco.
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  #100  
Old Posted Feb 29, 2020, 8:02 PM
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Last Friday my nephew was talking someone who actually has done work with the Chinese government now resides {of course} in Vancouver but still remains in contact with the people he worked with in Beijing. He stated {in confidence} that the numbers now coming out of China are patently ridiculous. Even conservative government estimates put the number {7 days ago} at between 225k to 250k and said many believe it is well over a million and is spreading like wildfire all over the country. He said hospitals are full and the government is telling everyone to simply stay at home but because they are forced to, they are not counted. Those who are trying to get out the word that the numbers are a farce are being arrested which actually was recorded live on Youtube by one young Chinese man just yesterday.

The new stats of PMI that came out yesterday showed a decline in one month from 50 in Jan to to 36 in Feb.....the biggest monthly drop in Chinese history. What's more the manufacturing sub-index was even much worse dropping from 51 to 28 in one month. That is nothing short of cataclysmic and certainly reinforces the notion that the virus is spreading exponentially all over the country. To put it in perspective, a de/increase of just 5 points over a one month period is considered very significant.

You can take it for what it's worth but clearly the new economic data seems to bear out what my nephew was told.

Last edited by ssiguy; Feb 29, 2020 at 8:16 PM.
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