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  #21  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2020, 12:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by misher View Post
This should shed some light on it for you:



Honestly probably everyone on this forum shouldn’t be worried about it. Deaths for those below 50 should just be those who have terrible health already.
These numbers clearly show that the prime thrust of preparation in countries without outbreaks should be towards improving preparation at health facilities dedicated to seniors.
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  #22  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2020, 12:11 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue View Post

Now this is bad. This is no fearmongering after all.
Pardon? I don't feel like this is a surprise at all. It's exponential growth.

It's pretty simple.

The worst is only starting. The world economy is gonna tank super hard.

My boss already told us were more or less screwed. Our suppliers are working at 40 percent production. More troubling is the narrative of bribes is starting to emerge. GM and the wealthier manufacturers are gonna jump to the front of the line with bribes.

I can't remember the exact number but we got like 3-4 months of unit critical components left.

All the data to predict this was explained weeks and weeks ago.


We're actually better off as the duplication rate as slowed from its initial prediction of 6 days.

If you double something 10 times it goes up by 1000. So a 6 day window meant that virtually the entire population of the planet would be infected by june. Meaning we'd have 200 million people dead.

Thankfully it looks like it might slow down and we might only have a few million people dead.

The part that we all need to worry about is what are we gonna do.

Say fuck it and let the old people die, or close our borders and shut down the global economy.
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  #23  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2020, 12:12 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by misher View Post
This should shed some light on it for you:



Honestly probably everyone on this forum shouldn’t be worried about it. Deaths for those below 50 should just be those who have terrible health already.
Problem is rich and power people are not gonna accept a 10-15 percent risk theirs parents will end up dead. Even worse the idea that 2-3 percent of homes will be ending up on the market at the same time global commodity prices are tanking.
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  #24  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2020, 12:20 AM
WarrenC12 WarrenC12 is online now
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Hospitals are already full of old people.

I still don't see how this is any worse than the average flu season, yet.
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  #25  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2020, 12:30 AM
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Originally Posted by someone123 View Post
The death rates we have seen are a classic example of selection bias. The people who feel ill show up and are counted, and we don't know about the others. So the computed death rate can be thought of as an upper bound on how bad it will be.
.
This is the assumption everyone has made but I haven't see any evidence of this being the case.

My understanding is that the number drops down to something like 1 percent instead of 3.
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  #26  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2020, 12:33 AM
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Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post
Hospitals are already full of old people.

I still don't see how this is any worse than the average flu season, yet.
This is like getting diagnosed with terminal cancer and don't think its time to panic.

As the current projections stand the global economy is fucked.
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  #27  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2020, 12:37 AM
WarrenC12 WarrenC12 is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LakeLocker View Post
This is like getting diagnosed with terminal cancer and don't think its time to panic.

As the current projections stand the global economy is fucked.
What projections? It's all panic right now. Nothing logical.
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  #28  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2020, 12:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LakeLocker View Post
This is like getting diagnosed with terminal cancer and don't think its time to panic.

As the current projections stand the global economy is fucked.
[IMG]auntieem by whatnextyvr, on Flickr[/IMG]
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  #29  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2020, 12:57 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post
What projections? It's all panic right now. Nothing logical.
Yep its all panic. Coronavirus is little different to the average worker than the flu. Only retirees and those near retirees should be skipping work.
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  #30  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2020, 1:35 AM
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The Flu you get once and develop antibodies. The coronavirus can invade you over and over. Any vaccines developed may only be effective for up to 4 months. If I understood this correctly, it's not at all comparable to a virulent flu season. This can linger and be very costly. I don't think panic is the worst thing right now. Overconfidence is.
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  #31  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2020, 2:24 AM
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Well Winnipeg now might have it's first potential case of coronavirus now. A traveler who'd reportedly been to China was taken off an inbound flight from Vancouver in Winnipeg by paramedics in protective masks and equipment Thursday afternoon — just minutes before a Manitoba health official announced there are no confirmed COVID-19 cases in the province. The 134 WestJet passengers were not quarantined and now roaming Winnipeg hopefully none were infected but this is concerning.

https://www.winnipegfreepress.com/lo...568263592.html
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  #32  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2020, 3:07 AM
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I was in Lima when the H1N1 (SWINE FLU) was first announced. There was a legit riot and stampede. Looked like a Best Buy on Black Friday in the U.S. Hope we can avoid that level of hysteria.

This Coronavirus (COVID-19) is most similar to SARS according to the Center for disease and prevention https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html. The above graph concerning age is the most helpful for fighting fear.

It is a nasty bug and I hope it encourages more preparation for pandemics in the future of a more deadly variety, especially in China. As is we are not about about to go through the second coming of the Spanish flu, or smallpox.
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  #33  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2020, 3:32 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by misher View Post
This should shed some light on it for you:

[IMG]https://i.insider.com/5e583c47fee23d...jpeg&auto=webp[/IM
Honestly probably everyone on this forum shouldn’t be worried about it. Deaths for those below 50 should just be those who have terrible health already.
Selfish thinking

Not worried for themselves, but what about elderly parents/relatives?

Friends who are immunocompromised?

Even the thought of contracting it and unknowingly passing it to the risk groups is worrisome.

Also worried about economic and social impact

It's still all (relatively) unknown too.
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  #34  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2020, 3:36 AM
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  #35  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2020, 5:00 AM
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Originally Posted by ReeceZ View Post
Australia has just announced a National Emergency Plan for the Coronavirus should things take a turn down there. They also banned flights awhile back from China as an extra precautionary measure.


Glad to see some Prime Ministers taking the health and well-being of their citizens seriously instead of concerning themselves primarily with hurting China's feelings.
Banning flights from China to Australia is a smoke and mirrors political stunt. Nothing more. There is no shortage or one stop connecting options between China and Australia. Traffic is going to be down because people are not traveling to China and non-essential travel out of China (ie. tourists) have been blocked by the government of China.

If we come back to Canada. Air Canada (the only domestic airline to service mainland China) has cancelled all of their flights due to the lack of demand. The Chinese airlines have all dramatically cut back their flying.
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  #36  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2020, 5:11 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by someone123 View Post
Canada has about 57,000 hospital beds and it can be hard to see a doctor outside of the flu season. If a lot of people get sick quickly, there won't be as much care available per person. If lots of people make no preparations and then panic and run out to buy supplies (food, medications, etc.) during a pandemic there will be shortages and more opportunities for spreading the disease. If it gets really bad a lot of people won't be showing up to work and services will be affected.
There's also the unfortunate coincidence that the country's rail network (and to a lesser degree, ports) have been seriously compromised for the last few weeks, which compounds the pressure on the supply chain.

And as you allude to here, a lot of people are already sick with the "regular" flu, as would be expected this time of year.
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  #37  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2020, 6:50 AM
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Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker View Post
I'm not particularly worried. The Atlantic has a great summary - basically says you're going to get coronavirus, and you're going to be fine. The reason it's spreading so easily is because its relatively harmless - like the regular seasonal colds and flus, lots of people have no symptoms, most have mild symptoms, and a small percentage get very sick and die - almost always those with underlying health issues. They note a growing number of health experts expect were just witnessing the addition of a fifth strain to our seasonal cold and flu viruses. Vast majority of us have nothing to worry about.

In contrast, SARS was likely to kill you. It made everyone who got it deathly sick. That's precisely why it was easier to isolate and control.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...accine/607000/

The coronavirus brought a province of China to its knees. So many of their older and more immune-compromised citizens required 24 hour care, resulting in a massive shortage of hospital beds.

I understand large publications trying to stem panic, which is a good thing, but to frame this as just another average flu is not correct. I definitely worry about my mom who has had pneumonia twice. COVID-19 would likely be fatal for her, unlike the flu.

This flu isn't going to be what really fucks us though. The global supply chain has already being rattled, and it's still going. All of those warehouses aren't being refilled as the majority of Chinese workers are still not working. This is the real issue at hand.
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  #38  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2020, 7:21 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thurmas View Post
Well Winnipeg now might have it's first potential case of coronavirus now. A traveler who'd reportedly been to China was taken off an inbound flight from Vancouver in Winnipeg by paramedics in protective masks and equipment Thursday afternoon — just minutes before a Manitoba health official announced there are no confirmed COVID-19 cases in the province. The 134 WestJet passengers were not quarantined and now roaming Winnipeg hopefully none were infected but this is concerning.

https://www.winnipegfreepress.com/lo...568263592.html
According to Global Mail, from here on Canada’s actively seeking out all cases in the country.
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  #39  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2020, 2:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thurmas View Post
Well Winnipeg now might have it's first potential case of coronavirus now. A traveler who'd reportedly been to China was taken off an inbound flight from Vancouver in Winnipeg by paramedics in protective masks and equipment Thursday afternoon — just minutes before a Manitoba health official announced there are no confirmed COVID-19 cases in the province. The 134 WestJet passengers were not quarantined and now roaming Winnipeg hopefully none were infected but this is concerning.

https://www.winnipegfreepress.com/lo...568263592.html
Well that's just fucking great. Here I was feeling safe living in the middle of no where.
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  #40  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2020, 2:12 PM
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Quebec likely has its first case as well, in the Montreal area.

It came in via a person who recently arrived from a trip to Iran.
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