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Old Posted Feb 27, 2020, 2:18 PM
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COVID-19 (Novel Coronavirus) Update

Alright, we have talked about it so much (especially in the Foreign Policy Thread) that I think it warrants its own thread. Post and check all the updates here, Canada- and world-wide. No fake news please. If possible, verify sources before posting (or simply disclaim that the source may be disputed). (I will try too.)

To start, I just saw on CP24 News that Ontario has just had its first case of human-to-human transmission when a man was tested positive for the virus a while after it was known that his wife contracted it.

Now this is bad. This is no fearmongering after all.
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Old Posted Feb 27, 2020, 2:25 PM
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I'm not particularly worried. The Atlantic has a great summary - basically says you're going to get coronavirus, and you're going to be fine. The reason it's spreading so easily is because its relatively harmless - like the regular seasonal colds and flus, lots of people have no symptoms, most have mild symptoms, and a small percentage get very sick and die - almost always those with underlying health issues. They note a growing number of health experts expect were just witnessing the addition of a fifth strain to our seasonal cold and flu viruses. Vast majority of us have nothing to worry about.

In contrast, SARS was likely to kill you. It made everyone who got it deathly sick. That's precisely why it was easier to isolate and control.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...accine/607000/
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Old Posted Feb 27, 2020, 2:30 PM
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Now we’re hearing conflicting voices. The part that got to me was when Dr. Theresa Tam reversed her stand and asked everyone to get ready. (I see her tweets popping up on my feed every now and then.)
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Old Posted Feb 27, 2020, 2:34 PM
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I generally agree, but this will still have a large worldwide impact, and will stretch resources to the limit.

I suspect the overall mortality rate in the healthy population will be less than 1%, but will be higher in the elderly, immunosuppressed, people with coexisting morbidities and in the unhealthy and malnourished.

This could be huge in places like sub Saharan Africa, and with a worldwide population of 7 billion, it is not difficult to imagine 150-200 million deaths related to this.

Worst case scenario in Canada I think would be in the vicinity of 100,000 deaths.
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Old Posted Feb 27, 2020, 3:05 PM
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Get your flu shot. Wash your hands.
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Old Posted Feb 27, 2020, 3:20 PM
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Get your flu shot. Wash your hands.
Flu shot won't work on this, it's a novel strain, but I suspect you already knew this.
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Old Posted Feb 27, 2020, 3:32 PM
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Washing hands may prevent getting it nonetheless. Is it because viruses may hide behind the nails though?
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Old Posted Feb 27, 2020, 3:52 PM
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Washing hands may prevent getting it nonetheless. Is it because viruses may hide behind the nails though?
I was referring to his comment about getting the flu shot. Hand washing is always a good idea, especially with something like Purel, which contains alcohol, and will denature a virus's protein coat.
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Old Posted Feb 27, 2020, 4:05 PM
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Flu shot won't work on this, it's a novel strain, but I suspect you already knew this.
Yes, I just meant take all the regular precautions with respect to contagious illnesses.

I have seen some of the same voices freaking over this, are also the ones advising people to "get informed" and "learn the truth about vaccines".
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Old Posted Feb 27, 2020, 5:20 PM
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If this is as bad as the seasonal flu I'd be surprised. Vaccines are already being tested anyway, so if we keep going like we have currently for another month or two, then it should be ready and nothing will happen here. The poor parts of the world may get screwed over though if the wealthy nations are busy worrying about themselves.
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Old Posted Feb 27, 2020, 5:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
I generally agree, but this will still have a large worldwide impact, and will stretch resources to the limit.
Canada has about 57,000 hospital beds and it can be hard to see a doctor outside of the flu season. If a lot of people get sick quickly, there won't be as much care available per person. If lots of people make no preparations and then panic and run out to buy supplies (food, medications, etc.) during a pandemic there will be shortages and more opportunities for spreading the disease. If it gets really bad a lot of people won't be showing up to work and services will be affected.

The CDC has a pandemic flu guide: https://www.cdc.gov/nonpharmaceutica...-ind-house.pdf

The gist of the CDC advice is to practice good hygiene and plan to minimize public contact if a pandemic strikes. It's not unlike planning for an earthquake or major storm.

Quote:
Worst case scenario in Canada I think would be in the vicinity of 100,000 deaths.
The death rates we have seen are a classic example of selection bias. The people who feel ill show up and are counted, and we don't know about the others. So the computed death rate can be thought of as an upper bound on how bad it will be.

I think the real death rate is something like 0.2-2%. But I am not even sure a death rate based on the notion of a clear cause of death is the right way to think about this.

Let's imagine you're a 78 year old smoker on dialysis with emphysema. You contract COVID-19. Your odds are very bad. But your life expectancy was already measured in months. We should consider how diseases and events change lifespans, though there may not be enough data yet to know about this disease.
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Old Posted Feb 27, 2020, 6:05 PM
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The death rates we have seen are a classic example of selection bias. The people who feel ill show up and are counted, and we don't know about the others. So the computed death rate can be thought of as an upper bound on how bad it will be.

I think the real death rate is something like 0.2-2%. But I am not even sure a death rate based on the notion of a clear cause of death is the right way to think about this.

Let's imagine you're a 78 year old smoker on dialysis with emphysema. You contract COVID-19. Your odds are very bad. But your life expectancy was already measured in months. We should consider how diseases and events change lifespans, though there may not be enough data yet to know about this disease.
I agree with all of this.

Like I said, I'm pretty sure the death rate will be less than 1%, with a heavy bias to the already ill and unhealthy. The death rate in non western countries however could be higher, but on the other hand, if you live in an isolated village in the Congo, you might not get exposed to the virus in the first place.
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Old Posted Feb 27, 2020, 6:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
Like I said, I'm pretty sure the death rate will be less than 1%, with a heavy bias to the already ill and unhealthy. The death rate in non western countries however could be higher, but on the other hand, if you live in an isolated village in the Congo, you might not get exposed to the virus in the first place.
Another aspect of it that people don't seem to mention much is that even though the handling in China was less than perfect it is a huge step up from what would have happened there 30 or 50 years ago. If this had hit Mao-era China the disease would be seriously ravaging the whole country by now. It has only affected a tiny portion of the Chinese population.

Ebola is similar. Not long ago there would have been no meaningful health care or vaccines for people living in those areas and the disease would have easily spread to the major cities. In a place like Lagos it would have killed millions.

The time to make new vaccines at an industrial scale has come down a lot and it seems like they can be delivered almost anywhere in the world. I wonder if in 20 years we'll see just about every new virus like this get nipped in the bud.
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Old Posted Feb 27, 2020, 6:47 PM
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It's probably not a bad idea to make sure the cupboards and deep freeze are fully stocked in case people do panic. Restaurants in Chinatown here are starting to have a tough time, the economy was already shaky, now people think they are going to get coronavirus from freakin ginger beef! lol
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Old Posted Feb 27, 2020, 9:04 PM
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I didn't realize that's what was hurting Chinatown. I'll be sure to convince my friends to go for dim sum after getting mangled tomorrow night.

The pharmacy at the University of Calgary has a sign saying "we have run out of face masks"... so that's a thing.

This just reminds me of H1N1; all bluster, no effect.
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Old Posted Feb 27, 2020, 9:42 PM
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I didn't realize that's what was hurting Chinatown. I'll be sure to convince my friends to go for dim sum after getting mangled tomorrow night.

The pharmacy at the University of Calgary has a sign saying "we have run out of face masks"... so that's a thing.

This just reminds me of H1N1; all bluster, no effect.
The 2009-10 H1N1 pandemic wasn't nothing. It's estimated it infected around 1 billion people and killed 300,000.
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Old Posted Feb 27, 2020, 9:55 PM
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Australia has just announced a National Emergency Plan for the Coronavirus should things take a turn down there. They also banned flights awhile back from China as an extra precautionary measure.


Glad to see some Prime Ministers taking the health and well-being of their citizens seriously instead of concerning themselves primarily with hurting China's feelings.
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Old Posted Feb 27, 2020, 10:55 PM
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The 2009-10 H1N1 pandemic wasn't nothing. It's estimated it infected around 1 billion people and killed 300,000.
Is that more or less than the common flu each year?
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Old Posted Feb 27, 2020, 10:56 PM
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Originally Posted by CityTech View Post
The 2009-10 H1N1 pandemic wasn't nothing. It's estimated it infected around 1 billion people and killed 300,000.
How many people are infected and killed by the regular seasonal flu? Also, 300 000 / 1 000 000 000 is tiny! that's a kill rate of 0.03% Covid-19 is supposed to be around a 4% mortality rate.
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Old Posted Feb 27, 2020, 11:23 PM
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This should shed some light on it for you:



Honestly probably everyone on this forum shouldn’t be worried about it. Deaths for those below 50 should just be those who have terrible health already.
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