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  #841  
Old Posted May 19, 2020, 1:52 AM
lio45 lio45 is offline
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One tiny counterpoint - this isn't a normal recession, it's a recession caused by a virus that makes people scared of congregating in closed spaces with strangers like on the subway, train or bus. So there are two conflicting trends here and I'm not sure exactly how powerful each factor will turn out to be (though I'd probably agree with you two about the net effect still being reduced car usage, mostly due to the rise of WFH; I forecast mass transit will see reduced usage too.)
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  #842  
Old Posted May 19, 2020, 2:27 AM
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urbandreamer urbandreamer is offline
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Which car should I buy next: Mazda Miata, Subaru WRX or VW Golf GTI? (2016 models)
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I'd rather be homeless than live in a condo...but I do like watching attractive ones get built...like Woodwards, 42 in Waterloo, and anything by Daoust/Saucier+Perrotte/Nomade/aA/Teeple
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  #843  
Old Posted May 19, 2020, 11:33 AM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is online now
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
One tiny counterpoint - this isn't a normal recession, it's a recession caused by a virus that makes people scared of congregating in closed spaces with strangers like on the subway, train or bus. So there are two conflicting trends here and I'm not sure exactly how powerful each factor will turn out to be (though I'd probably agree with you two about the net effect still being reduced car usage, mostly due to the rise of WFH; I forecast mass transit will see reduced usage too.)
We've had pandemics before. We'll have them in the future. We didn't change the entire built form of our cities for past pandemics. And we unlikely to change them for this one.
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  #844  
Old Posted May 19, 2020, 1:26 PM
Mister F Mister F is online now
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Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post
New car sales in general suffer hard during recessions.
One thing that's important to point out is that car sales were declining for three years before the recession that we're now heading into. So there are other causes at play.

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Originally Posted by ssiguy View Post
Automobiles will always be with us, that will never change. They offer the freedom and mobility that people have come to expect.

The big concern will be how the Bid 3 will survive. Already they are almost completely out of the car market and the few cars they have left will probably be phased out. In terms of cars, all 3 are now basically also-rans. Of course people will say that they will thrive on SUVs and trucks but for how long? 40 years ago the notion of foreign cars taking over the car market would have been enough to get you committed and look how things have changed.

Foreign SUVs now make up a huge part of the market and that will only increase. Domestics don't have the quality, the status, or the re-sale value of the imports. What happens when tastes return to the car and they have nothing to offer? People who say that will never happen should look back at the minivan and how it went from dominance from 1982 to 2010 and now is nearly extinct.
So many outdated terms. The Auto Pact is long gone; all cars are foreign. American cars are no less foreign than Japanese ones. The big 3 aren't the big 3 anymore. Chrysler has only managed to stay in the top 10 by merging with Fiat.
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  #845  
Old Posted May 19, 2020, 1:44 PM
wave46 wave46 is offline
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Originally Posted by urbandreamer View Post
Which car should I buy next: Mazda Miata, Subaru WRX or VW Golf GTI? (2016 models)
Depends on how practical you want to go.

Miata is probably the least practical and useful from a daily driver point of view. It is a toy, but a fun toy. It's also not very quick compared to the WRX and GTI. But if you like convertibles...

The WRX is probably the best from a well-rounded point-of-view. It's fun, quick, handles well and a decent daily (and winter) driver. It's Japanese, so reliability is probably better, but with these types of cars, one has to be picky as they can be pretty thrashed by a previous owner. It can be pretty boy-racer though, so I'm not sure if that's your preference.

The GTI is the most adult and practical. It's quick and handles well, but doesn't have the same edge. Some people swear by German cars, some regard them with hesitancy in a reliability aspect. I don't know enough to comment beyond that.

If it was me - a WRX in a mundane colour without the wing on the back.
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  #846  
Old Posted May 19, 2020, 2:00 PM
wave46 wave46 is offline
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For the record, the OP never meant it in the sense you guys are currently discussing. His lament was that automakers nowadays tend to focus (pun not intended) on the Escape or CR-V bodied versions of their Focus or Civic platforms and engines, as there are significantly bigger margins for anything that looks like a "SUVs" (even if it's just a dressed up Focus or Civic under the skin).
I think the market is moving where the Boomers are moving - a tall vehicle is easier to get into and out of for certain age groups (for whatever reason). People like to sit up high.

That being said, GM/Ford/Fiat-Chrysler have never really made much money on their small cars. They're taking the higher-risk, higher-reward gamble by going all-in on the SUV/truck thing. If people keep buying SUVs/trucks, they win by not losing money on a car sale and racking it in on the SUV/truck one. If they're wrong, they're in deep problems - smaller vehicles were much less hit during the 2009 recession than big, expensive ones.

Honda/Toyota/Hyundai-Kia make more profit on their small cars and have a lock on the perception angle. In a shrinking market, only the strongest competitors survive - look at minivans. So, they'll be in a better spot should a recession hit. They've a good mix of vehicles (save for pickups) so they're decently positioned if the upside continues but have mitigated their risk for a recession. The biggest downside is that someone who might have considered a small SUV such as an HR-V might find the lower-profit Civic does the job too.
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  #847  
Old Posted May 19, 2020, 3:02 PM
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MolsonExport MolsonExport is offline
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Which is why I will probably never, ever buy a GM/Ford/Chrysler. After decades of slinging substandard quality, they couldn't compete in the compact and midsize car market here in North America (despite the consumer ethnocentrism that they themselves conveniently like to drum up), so they went all in on making obnoxiously huge, extremely loud pickup trucks.

Besides, GM/Ford/Chrysler are no more "domestic" than Toyota or Honda (both of which make a larger proportion of their Canadian-sold cars right here in Canada).
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  #848  
Old Posted May 19, 2020, 4:51 PM
WarrenC12 WarrenC12 is online now
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
For the record, the OP never meant it in the sense you guys are currently discussing. His lament was that automakers nowadays tend to focus (pun not intended) on the Escape or CR-V bodied versions of their Focus or Civic platforms and engines, as there are significantly bigger margins for anything that looks like a "SUVs" (even if it's just a dressed up Focus or Civic under the skin).
I've never owned an SUV/CUV, and only had 1 hatchback out of maybe 8 vehicles I've owned. Love me some 4 door cars with trunk!
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  #849  
Old Posted May 19, 2020, 4:55 PM
WarrenC12 WarrenC12 is online now
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Originally Posted by Mister F View Post
One thing that's important to point out is that car sales were declining for three years before the recession that we're now heading into. So there are other causes at play.
Correct, this will accelerate it. Even as we get back to driving more, people will be hesitant to sign up to a big financing arrangement for a new car. I believe we will see something similar to 2008-09, where car sales dropped, and those cars later had higher than normal resale values, since there was less supply in a stronger overall car market 5 years later.
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  #850  
Old Posted May 19, 2020, 5:06 PM
whatnext whatnext is online now
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Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post
Correct, this will accelerate it. Even as we get back to driving more, people will be hesitant to sign up to a big financing arrangement for a new car. I believe we will see something similar to 2008-09, where car sales dropped, and those cars later had higher than normal resale values, since there was less supply in a stronger overall car market 5 years later.
Possibly but counteracting that will be manufacturing economies desire to get people back to work by spurring auto sales. Couple this with commuters reluctance to get on public transit and it coudl spur more sales or leases. And of course here in Vancouver we've lost two car share services this year, so that option is becoming less attractive.
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  #851  
Old Posted May 19, 2020, 5:08 PM
jonny24 jonny24 is offline
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Originally Posted by MolsonExport View Post
Which is why I will probably never, ever buy a GM/Ford/Chrysler. After decades of slinging substandard quality, they couldn't compete in the compact and midsize car market here in North America (despite the consumer ethnocentrism that they themselves conveniently like to drum up), so they went all in on making obnoxiously huge, extremely loud pickup trucks.

Besides, GM/Ford/Chrysler are no more "domestic" than Toyota or Honda (both of which make a larger proportion of their Canadian-sold cars right here in Canada).
To be fair, owners are the ones that make them loud, just like you can with any car (the loudest around here seem to be "race" Japanese models, with lot of stickers on them). The manufacturers are always trying to make them quieter, and using that as a selling point even. You just can't get a round the fact that a large, powerful engine has the potential to make a lot of noise if not muffled.

I do with they'd make trucks smaller though. Even the re-introduced midsize Canyons and Rangers are the size of what a full size used to be.
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  #852  
Old Posted May 19, 2020, 7:29 PM
CityTech CityTech is online now
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Originally Posted by Truenorth00 View Post
We've had pandemics before. We'll have them in the future. We didn't change the entire built form of our cities for past pandemics. And we unlikely to change them for this one.
We haven't a pandemic that has had remotely the same impact as this one since 1918, which is a very long time ago. Pandemics are largely gone from the modern age.
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  #853  
Old Posted May 19, 2020, 7:52 PM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is online now
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Originally Posted by CityTech View Post
We haven't a pandemic that has had remotely the same impact as this one since 1918, which is a very long time ago. Pandemics are largely gone from the modern age.
No. The difference in this one is a lot of people were impacted economically or inconvenienced as we locked down quickly. So people noticed. Meanwhile, in 2009, over a quarter million died globally from Swine flu. People think it wasn't impactful because most of the world wasn't impacted by public health controls. Just like those outbreaks, we'll eventually have treatments and move on.

On topic, this looks to be the fourth year of declining global auto sales. Not exactly a great outlook for the sector.
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