NEW YORK | 2020 Census data | 8,804,190

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by PoshSteve

I hate to say it, but maybe NYC's population coming in at only 5.5M will be blatant enough at saying the count was F'ed up that the powers that be of a new administration will have a 2021 redo.

That’s not how it works. There’s the Self-Response rate vs the Non-Response follow up rate. The census workers are going to match every single housing unit they can find with a name, even if they have to ask the landlord or neighbor or refer to the tax rolls. It’s simply more accurate with the Self-Response to locate residents who are not on the tax rolls (such as children and seniors)

A recount in 2021 would be even less accurate, since most people wouldn’t remember to do it twice.

For now it looks like a massive undercount in California and Texas cities, while Cook and Wayne counties surpassed their 2010 rates.

NYC 2010: 64.0%
NYC 2020: 61.4%

New York County 2010: 66.2%
New York County 2020: 62.5%

Kings County 2010: 57.2%
Kings County 2020: 58.6%

LA 2010: 68.0%
LA 2020: 58.3%

LA County 2010: 69.0%
LA County 2020: 64.9%

Chicago 2010: 62.4%
Chicago 2020: 60.5%

Cook County 2010: 66.1%
Cook County 2020: 67.1%

Philadelphia 2010: 62.4%
Philadelphia 2020: 56.4%

Detroit 2010: 53.6%
Detroit 2020: 50.8%

Wayne County 2010: 63.1%
Wayne County 2020: 66.4%

Houston 2010: 63.5%
Houston 2020: 58.7%

Harris County 2010: 65.1%
Harris County 2020: 62.6%

Dallas 2010: 61.9%
Dallas 2020: 59.5%

Dallas County: 64.6%
Dallas County: 63.7%

[mrnyc]

^ can you give the link for that to check other cities/counties? its interesting.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by mrnyc

^ can you give the link for that to check other cities/counties? its interesting.

https://www.censushardtocountmaps2020.us/

Honestly, this whole screwing with the census nonsense is going to backfire politically, because the rural Republican strongholds have even worse response rates than poor inner cities, so almost everybody except the educated suburbs is undertallied.

[PoshSteve]

So if these low numbers right now are common for how it is at the end of a census count, and they have ways of filling in anyways, what's the big deal about it being over now? Sounds like everything is just how its always been.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by PoshSteve

So if these low numbers right now are common for how it is at the end of a census count, and they have ways of filling in anyways, what's the big deal about it being over now? Sounds like everything is just how its always been.

Well, everything’s relative. Let’s say there’s a genuine 1-2% undercount. For a city like Chicago that might be an entire neighborhood of 50K unaccounted for and a cumulative 1.5 billion in federal funds lost or a transit project that doesn’t get approved. It’s also harder to differentiate between an undercount and actual population loss.

For local and state political apportionment, an undercount can wreak havoc. I’m sure the Chicago-area politicians are crying tears that downstate IL is showing a 5-10% undercount vs. the 1.9% undercount for Chicago city and an increased count for the Chicago suburbs. Less political representation for their opponents.

The reverse is true for Wisconsin where Milwaukee is undercounted compared to the rural areas.

[chris08876]

There is an influx of folks leaving the city (really due to price). Folks like to think Covid caused it, but the underlying cause is because some people can't afford it or are tired of the costs. And this was occurring before Covid. But even with that, I don't think we will see a disaster in terms of population loss. Like we won't suddenly dip below 8 million.

[C.]

With the release of the official U.S. Census 2020 results, it's highly likely that New York City's population estimates have been too low.

The most recent estimate data available indicates that NYC has a population of 8,336,817. The official tally indicates that New York State is 4.47% above the estimate.

Assuming the same proportion, between NYC and the rest of the state.. it's not outside the ballpark that NYC's official 2020 population when released by the Census will be 8,709,524.

A big jump.

There is no way the undercount was just in upstate and western NYC.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by C.

Assuming the same proportion, between NYC and the rest of the state.. it's not outside the ballpark that NYC's official 2020 population when released by the Census will be 8,709,524.

A big jump.

There is no way the undercount was just in upstate and western NYC.

You're being far too cautious. There's almost no way the undercount was NOT exclusively in NYC and environs.

We know the Census does a great job counting rural areas, and we know the Census does a crap job counting metropolitan areas. This was (apparently) far, far worse during the last administration, and especially worse in NY-NJ.

Bet you that practically 100% of the NY-NJ undercount is in the tri-state metro area, meaning Northern/Central Jersey and anywhere in NY State south of Poughkeepsie or so. I bet you some of the Outer Boroughs, and Urban Jersey, in particular, were laughably undercounted.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by C.

With the release of the official U.S. Census 2020 results, it's highly likely that New York City's population estimates have been too low.

The most recent estimate data available indicates that NYC has a population of 8,336,817. The official tally indicates that New York State is 4.47% above the estimate.

Assuming the same proportion, between NYC and the rest of the state.. it's not outside the ballpark that NYC's official 2020 population when released by the Census will be 8,709,524.

A big jump.

There is no way the undercount was just in upstate and western NYC.

Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if NYC gets even closer to 9M than that. It actually matches the feeling of being here, too. The city quite obviously has more people than it did a decade ago.

[Steely Dan]

So there's a legit chance that NYC all by itself is now more populous than the entire Chicagoland Urban Area (~8.6M).

That would mean new york city squeezes more people into its 303 sq. miles of land than chicagoland puts on over 2,400 sq. miles.

Crazy.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Crawford

You're being far too cautious. There's almost no way the undercount was NOT exclusively in NYC and environs.

We know the Census does a great job counting rural areas, and we know the Census does a crap job counting metropolitan areas. This was (apparently) far, far worse during the last administration, and especially worse in NY-NJ.

Bet you that practically 100% of the NY-NJ undercount is in the tri-state metro area, meaning Northern/Central Jersey and anywhere in NY State south of Poughkeepsie or so. I bet you some of the Outer Boroughs, and Urban Jersey, in particular, were laughably undercounted.

What about Buffalo? They have momentum, and might have been undercounted. But sure, most of "missing people" are on the southern tip.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

What about Buffalo? They have momentum, and might have been undercounted. But sure, most of "missing people" are on the southern tip.

Maybe, but the whole Buffalo metro has barely a million people.

And Buffalo has few immigrants, few renters, and isn't a transient city, which are the typical factors that tend to produce undercounts.

[Antares41]

NY State growth has to be greater than 80% driven by NYC metro. I expected Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse are still bleeding residents albeit at a slower rate than the previous decade. Buffalo might even have a small gain due to its growing immigrant population on the west side. Nevertheless down-state Yonkers is poised to overtake Rochester to be the third largest city in NY state by the next census; if it hasn't already happened. White Plains and New Rochelle are also seeing positive growth.

[benp]

Originally Posted by Antares41

NY State growth has to be greater than 80% driven by NYC metro. I expected Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse are still bleeding residents albeit at a slower rate than the previous decade. Buffalo might even have a small gain due to its growing immigrant population on the west side. Nevertheless down-state Yonkers is poised to overtake Rochester to be the third largest city in NY state by the next census; if it hasn't already happened. White Plains and New Rochelle are also seeing positive growth.

CRBE data looking at impacts of COVID showed a 77% increase in migration from NYC to the Buffalo Metro area between 2019 and 2020, and overall it showed Buffalo as slightly net positive US migration in 2020, possibly for the first time in decades. Even in prior years, Buffalo showed a 3 to 2 net positive migration from NYC, although net negative overall. Rochester and Syracuse also had increases in net migration from NYC in 2020, but not as large in numbers or percentage as Buffalo. In past years, the net positive from NYC had been attributed to university students, but in 2020 most students attended remotely, so the detailed Census could be interesting.

There has been a large migration of South Asians, primarily from NYC, to the East Side of Buffalo for several years now that is below the radar for most people as the West Side gets the most attention. Ten years ago Buffalo had a relatively small Asian population, but in just the last few years more than 1 in 4 homes purchased in the city is by people with South Asian surnames.

[skysoar]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

So there's a legit chance that NYC all by itself is now more populous than the entire Chicagoland Urban Area (~8.6M).

That would mean new york city squeezes more people into its 303 sq. miles of land than chicagoland puts on over 2,400 sq. miles.

Crazy.

No Chicagolands population is over 9.6 million per the Census Bureau. And likely to grow minimally larger in the 2020 Census. But neverthless New Yorks population is incredible, you can only imagine Sao Paulo and Mexico Citys density.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by skysoar

No Chicagolands population is over 9.6 million per the Census Bureau.

I wasn't talking about chicago's CSA or MSA (both of them being woefully bloated county mash-up measures, and thus rather meaningless for density discussions), but rather chicago's "Urban Area" measure, which was ~8.6M people the last time it was calculated by the CB in 2010.

The 2020 UA numbers will be released later this year, but I don't expect chicago's new UA figure to be greatly changed.

[pianowizard]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

I wasn't talking about chicago's CSA or MSA (both of them being woefully bloated county mash-up measures, and thus rather meaningless for density discussions), but rather chicago's "Urban Area" measure, which was ~8.6M people the last time it was calculated by the CB in 2010.

Most interesting! I had never heard of the urban area measure, which does sound more relevant than MSA and certainly CSA. I looked it up on Wikipedia and found this table ranking all 497 urban areas based on the 2010 census:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...es_urban_areas

[dc_denizen]

Originally Posted by benp

CRBE data looking at impacts of COVID showed a 77% increase in migration from NYC to the Buffalo Metro area between 2019 and 2020, and overall it showed Buffalo as slightly net positive US migration in 2020, possibly for the first time in decades. Even in prior years, Buffalo showed a 3 to 2 net positive migration from NYC, although net negative overall. Rochester and Syracuse also had increases in net migration from NYC in 2020, but not as large in numbers or percentage as Buffalo. In past years, the net positive from NYC had been attributed to university students, but in 2020 most students attended remotely, so the detailed Census could be interesting.

There has been a large migration of South Asians, primarily from NYC, to the East Side of Buffalo for several years now that is below the radar for most people as the West Side gets the most attention. Ten years ago Buffalo had a relatively small Asian population, but in just the last few years more than 1 in 4 homes purchased in the city is by people with South Asian surnames.

I had heard about the south asian influx to Buffalo anecdotally but thats interesting that its starting to be a real thing.

[skysoar]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

I wasn't talking about chicago's CSA or MSA (both of them being woefully bloated county mash-up measures, and thus rather meaningless for density discussions), but rather chicago's "Urban Area" measure, which was ~8.6M people the last time it was calculated by the CB in 2010.

The 2020 UA numbers will be released later this year, but I don't expect chicago's new UA figure to be greatly changed.

True but they are both flawed, not just the Chicago CSA or the MSA. The Urban Area measure of San Francisco with only 3.2 million , smaller than Phoenix, about the size of Seattle and San Diego, is just one questionable example .I must admit though the N.Y.C Urban Area measure with over 18 million is yet very impressive population -wise.

[jboy560]

When will final population figures for cities and municipalities be published? I’m struggling to find out when we’ll know NYC’s final number for 2020!