DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[mhays]

The 1,300 sounds like a typo.

[Robert.hampton]

Originally Posted by UrbanT

On this website for land capital the have what looks to be preliminary renderings for the avenue grill parking lot on 17th too. http://www.landcapital.partners/

Wow -- that would be a stellar addition as well. Who on earth is this Michael Eisenstein? Sounds like he has bought a few apartment but hasn't built anything ground up. Some info on the uptown project was announced back in January -- https://milehighcre.com/unique-prope...ville-history/

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by CherryCreek

Holy Cow!

https://www.bizjournals.com/denver/n...ent-tower.html...

WOW! Would be a great project for Denver IF it was real, but throw me in the no frickin way it'll ever happen Paradise bucket. Take a look at the website, the developer posted a proforma with sources and uses - I'm not sure whether to laugh or cry! I am all in on a suburban stick frame apartment project for $240k/door and Mr Eisenstein thinks he can build that cantilevered structure for $286k/unit? Maybe he has a Chinese contractor who can make it happen?! Good luck to him, if he pulls it off I need to start building high rises...

https://static1.squarespace.com/stat...+%28002%29.pdf

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

The problem seems to be that Buzz has a soft spot for dreamers (Buzz knows the property's value isn't going down)

Buzz has a soft spot for unproven developers who make above-market offers for his property. He's a greedy turd who needs to shed his mortal coil and lets his beneficiaries fire-sale the land assets.

But there is a nice confirmation in the article that Buzz is pretty much a parking lot slum-lord- so hopefully no one will still throw around the title of developer.

[CherryCreek]

Originally Posted by laniroj

WOW! Would be a great project for Denver IF it was real, but throw me in the no frickin way it'll ever happen Paradise bucket. Take a look at the website, the developer posted a proforma with sources and uses - I'm not sure whether to laugh or cry! I am all in on a suburban stick frame apartment project for $240k/door and Mr Eisenstein thinks he can build that cantilevered structure for $286k/unit? Maybe he has a Chinese contractor who can make it happen?! Good luck to him, if he pulls it off I need to start building high rises...

https://static1.squarespace.com/stat...+%28002%29.pdf

Haha, I think everyone is skeptical! I do see the unit sizes are very small - 500 SQF. Not quite micro units, but still a lot of small units for this type of development. I wonder if its a combo of true micro units, and larger units?

[The Dirt]

Buzz has a soft spot for unproven developers whose chain he can yank and try to get a ridiculously one sided deal out of. No surprise he's not had any successful developments. I don't know if I like his approach better or worse than the Dikeu's total absenteeism.

[wong21fr]

The parking lot analysis is pretty interesting as well- 12% YoY growth over the model lifespan. It assumes an uncovered reserved parking spot will go for $526/mo in 2029. Pretty optimistic to say the least. It would definitely be a great driver for other transportation modes.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

I find it odd that this market cycle is going to pass Buzz by without any developments to call his own. It seems like a tremendously wasted opportunity to cash in on his prime downtown lots.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

Buzz has a soft spot for unproven developers who make above-market offers for his property. He's a greedy turd who needs to shed his mortal coil and lets his beneficiaries fire-sale the land assets.

But there is a nice confirmation in the article that Buzz is pretty much a parking lot slum-lord- so hopefully no one will still throw around the title of developer.

I'm not aware that Buzz is claiming to be a developer?

Guy comes along wants to buy property, he says.
Buzz says fine: This is the price and it will cost you $150,000 for me to take my property off the market for six months.
Wide-eyed Guy say Okay, puts up a non-refundable $150,000.

Outcome One:
Nothing happens; Buzz pockets $150,000 for his time. Why criticize Buzz for making a nice return; his cost is paying an attorney to review the contract.

Outcome Two:
Guy is so obsessed to score his chance of a lifetime site, he finds someone to take a first lien position and put up half the cost, Guy comes up with the rest and is the proud new owner.

Outcome Three:
Lower odds but well capitalized buyer offers Guy $250,000 in cash to take an assignment of his contract. Guy says OK, deal closes and everybody is happy, happy.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

I'm not aware that Buzz is claiming to be a developer?

He has. Bell Tower ring any bells? Or the shitty office building component at 1300 Larimer?

Guy comes along wants to buy property, he says.
Buzz says fine: This is the price and it will cost you $150,000 for me to take my property off the market for six months.
Wide-eyed Guy say Okay, puts up a non-refundable $150,000.

Outcome One:
Nothing happens; Buzz pockets $150,000 for his time. Why criticize Buzz for making a nice return; his cost is paying an attorney to review the contract.

Outcome Two:
Guy is so obsessed to score his chance of a lifetime site, he finds someone to take a first lien position and put up half the cost, Guy comes up with the rest and is the proud new owner.

Outcome Three:
Lower odds but well capitalized buyer offers Guy $250,000 in cash to take an assignment of his contract. Guy says OK, deal closes and everybody is happy, happy.

I like how you like to pick the side of the guy getting heaped on- you've got a soft spot for wealthy people getting bullied. Not sure why you fell compelled to do so, but it does provide a counterpoint.

[milehighmomentum]

Looks like the final pieces of the puzzle are coming together for a groundbreaking that's not too far off...

https://www.bizjournals.com/denver/n...evelopers.html

[CherryCreek]

Originally Posted by milehighmomentum

Looks like the final pieces of the puzzle are coming together for a groundbreaking that's not too far off...

https://www.bizjournals.com/denver/n...evelopers.html

Nice! After a lull in announcements and a seeming lull in activity, things seem to be heating up. This quote confirms what many of us have suspected: the great availability of development opportunities in RiNo is not only a real competitor to "legacy" downtown, but for now, has the upper hand:

We have had one tenant say they want almost the entire building," Lee said. "I strongly believe that we could lease this building multiple times over the given amount."


It's a theme seen across RiNo. The proximity to the train station — about a 90-foot walk, Lee said — is a big driver, but it's the quality of life that the hip neighborhood offers that tenants are most excited about.

"It's the vibe that is RiNo," Lee said. "I think you're going to see more new product in RiNo than in downtown over the next two to four years."

Crews are expected to break ground on the office portion of the project later this year with a completion in the third quarter of 2021. Some ground floor tenants may be able to move in even sooner, depending on construction progress, Campbell said. The hotel is also scheduled to be delivered in 2021

Poor T2. If they had gotten their shit together early in the cycle and got 'er done, I suspect they'd be 100% leased now at favorable rates. But now RiNo is stealing their thunder.

[mhays]

Based on the renderings (how units are lighted), the units appear to be eight to a long side, including one at each corner. The short sides seem to have two more each. At 31 residential floors that would be 620 units.

But maybe what looks like one unit is actually two. Split every unit in two and you're close to the 1,253 figure.

I'm not understanding the floorplates. Assuming 639,000 sf rentable in 31 stories, plus circulation and common areas, we're talking way north of 700,000 sf on the residential levels? Those would be massive floorplates. The units would have to be extremely long and skinny.

I'm not a technical guy, but the cantilever looks expensive. The benefit might be related to parking efficiency more than anything else, and avoiding transfer elements. Kudos for an aggressive parking ratio, which would certainly save cost along with putting the parking above-grade.

But yes it seems (thanks laniroj!) like a lot of disjointed assmptions. This jibes with the frequent occurence of an inexperienced developer being off by double digits on cost, and having odd ideas about potential rents.

[twister244]

Originally Posted by CherryCreek

Nice! After a lull in announcements and a seeming lull in activity, things seem to be heating up. This quote confirms what many of us have suspected: the great availability of development opportunities in RiNo is not only a real competitor to "legacy" downtown, but for now, has the upper hand:

We have had one tenant say they want almost the entire building," Lee said. "I strongly believe that we could lease this building multiple times over the given amount."


It's a theme seen across RiNo. The proximity to the train station — about a 90-foot walk, Lee said — is a big driver, but it's the quality of life that the hip neighborhood offers that tenants are most excited about.

"It's the vibe that is RiNo," Lee said. "I think you're going to see more new product in RiNo than in downtown over the next two to four years."

Crews are expected to break ground on the office portion of the project later this year with a completion in the third quarter of 2021. Some ground floor tenants may be able to move in even sooner, depending on construction progress, Campbell said. The hotel is also scheduled to be delivered in 2021

Poor T2. If they had gotten their shit together early in the cycle and got 'er done, I suspect they'd be 100% leased now at favorable rates. But now RiNo is stealing their thunder.

That was my thought too..... T2 really is cursed! Lol...... The article mentions other projects in the area as well, but..... they all appear to be just on the other side of the opportunity zone boundary. From what I can tell, that is delineated by 38th street. So, this actually just boosted my optimism in WTC significantly as most folks are probably looking at this as more likely to get off the ground now that is has some serious backing and location.

That one tenant...... could it be the secret "S" we were mentioning last week?......

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by milehighmomentum

Looks like the final pieces of the puzzle are coming together for a groundbreaking that's not too far off...

https://www.bizjournals.com/denver/n...evelopers.html

Man, that Opportunity Zone in RiNo is blowing up. When they announce development plans for the NWSS Triangle that's going to be huuuuge. I also imagine that the Pepsi bottling plant will be in play within the next five years- probably with the next cycle.

[Robert.hampton]

Originally Posted by CherryCreek

Nice! After a lull in announcements and a seeming lull in activity, things seem to be heating up. This quote confirms what many of us have suspected: the great availability of development opportunities in RiNo is not only a real competitor to "legacy" downtown, but for now, has the upper hand:

We have had one tenant say they want almost the entire building," Lee said. "I strongly believe that we could lease this building multiple times over the given amount."


It's a theme seen across RiNo. The proximity to the train station — about a 90-foot walk, Lee said — is a big driver, but it's the quality of life that the hip neighborhood offers that tenants are most excited about.

"It's the vibe that is RiNo," Lee said. "I think you're going to see more new product in RiNo than in downtown over the next two to four years."

Crews are expected to break ground on the office portion of the project later this year with a completion in the third quarter of 2021. Some ground floor tenants may be able to move in even sooner, depending on construction progress, Campbell said. The hotel is also scheduled to be delivered in 2021

Poor T2. If they had gotten their shit together early in the cycle and got 'er done, I suspect they'd be 100% leased now at favorable rates. But now RiNo is stealing their thunder.

Is it just me or is the rendering for this far more pedestrian than the initial vision?

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by Robert.hampton

Is it just me or is the rendering for this far more pedestrian than the initial vision?

As in more realistic and likely to get built? Yuuuup.

Trimmed the fat and made some design concessions in order to keep to the development budget. It's frustrating, but necessary.

[CherryCreek]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

As in more realistic and likely to get built? Yuuuup.

Trimmed the fat and made some design concessions in order to keep to the development budget. It's frustrating, but necessary.

Indeed. Still not as bad the PBS downgrades from their RiNo structure. Hahah. That was the saddest evolution of a development plan in the history of the city.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by milehighmomentum

Looks like the final pieces of the puzzle are coming together for a groundbreaking that's not too far off...

https://www.bizjournals.com/denver/n...evelopers.html

Source

You just won the prize for Best First Post Ever. Congratulations.

This flew completely under my radar
Had I seen it I would have done a little dance.

Golub & Company Opens Denver Office, Expands Presence Through Western U.S.
NEWS PROVIDED BY: Golub & Company LLC Jun 04, 2018

CHICAGO and DENVER, June 4, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- International real estate investment and development firm Golub & Company, headquartered in Chicago, announced today it will establish a Denver office focused on multifamily and office acquisitions across Colorado and the Western United States.

They've been a long time player in Phoenix, not that they've done that much; bought land for development mostly.

They are well qualified however.

[CherryCreek]

The special election this week in Lakewood has been under the radar, but could be a big deal if it passes:

The ballot proposal would bar growth greater than 1 % of existing housing stock.


https://www.denverpost.com/2019/06/2...owth-election/


My concern would be the precedent it set - if it succeeds, look for similar initiatives elsewhere.

As an aside, the fact that it's a special election is B.S. Something this important should be in a general election.