2010 Census Discussion Thread...

[Don B.]

I took a second part time job with the Census Bureau this year.

So, as I'm working on these forms, I wanted to put out there some thoughts and predictions:

1. Will Phoenix reach 1.6 million? Phoenix had 1.321 million in the 2000 census, and due to massive growth from 2000 to 2006, should show an increase. The latest estimates put Phoenix at around 1.55 million.

2. Will Maricopa County pass 4 million? The 2000 Census had about 3.2 million in the county, and the latest estimate put it at something like 3.8 million.

3. Will Phoenix show a population loss from 2006 to present? That would be very interesting.

4. When will Phoenix and Tucson merge as a consolidated metropolitan area? I think the threshold is something like 15% of the commuters in Pima County and Pinal/Maricopa Counties cross the border to work in the other adjacent county. I don't think this will happen before the 2020 census, and perhaps even the 2030 census.

--don

[Vicelord John]

I predict that with this census, they will be able to determine the number of people living in Arizona.

[vertex]

Well, I have no concrete evidence, but as far as traffic goes, things seem be getting more crowded again. I'd say this is especially true on westbound I-10, the eastside 101 and US60 during the morning rush hour.

Last year it was rare to encounter a slowdown for any of these freeways until you got to Tempe. Maybe this isn't a sure sign of a rising population again; it may be nothing more than winter visitors or perhaps a slight uptick in the number of jobs, but it's worth noting.

Even if the exodus from Phoenix hasn't stopped, when you take into account a pretty healthy birth/death ratio, Phoenix has a good chance of topping 1.6 million.

[NorthScottsdale]

I don't think that Phoenix lost population. And if the numbers are lower, it will be because the illegals are too scared to fill out their census forms.

I know we will at least gain one more congressional seat out of this census, but do you think we could gain two?? That would be awesome. Give AZ a little more pull on the national scene.

[PhxPavilion]

I thought the metro was already over 4 million?

Phoenix will probably be under 1.6.

[Don B.]

I do note that the city of Phoenix is nearing the city of Detroit's max population, which was in 1950 at 1.8 million.

Metro wise, Phoenix is probably around 4.3 million as of the latest 2008 census estimates. That's way up from 3.2 million in 2000, and 2.2 million in 1990, and so long as we count everyone living here (thanks Sheriff Joe for scaring 40% of the population to death!), we should top 4.5 million for the 4-1-10 count.

Since I moved to Phoenix in 1993, the metro area has basically doubled in population. Not an easy feat in just 17 years.

--don

[Tempe_Duck]

Originally Posted by Don B.

Metro wise, Phoenix is probably around 4.3 million as of the latest 2008 census estimates. That's way up from 3.2 million in 2000, and 2.2 million in 1990, and so long as we count everyone living here (thanks Sheriff Joe for scaring 40% of the population to death!), we should top 4.5 million for the 4-1-10 count.

--don

If they are he legally then they should have noting to be scared of from Sheriff Joe. Even with that, I doubt it is anywhere near 40%.

[Leo the Dog]

I suspect that the census will show that PHX, city and metro, has continued to grow even in the bust times due to natural births over deaths. While a growing population is an important indicator to the local area's state of economy, this number shouldn't be the only thing considered. (I'm sure it'll be the headline stat though.)

What I'd like to know is, how much wealth has left the city and region over the last couple of years. For example: NJ has gained in population over the last few years, however, they have lost $70 billion in wealth as the "well off" move out of state.

[Leo the Dog]

Phoenicians are so ignorant it is almost funny when it comes to "illegals", as if, its only a Phoenix thing. Every city has large immigrant populations both legal and illegal and at much higher numbers, yet no one bitches about it in these cities. This place is such a hostile area for immigrants, it is just a staging ground for them to move on to other locations.

[combusean]

Originally Posted by Tempe_Duck

If they are he legally then they should have noting to be scared of from Sheriff Joe. Even with that, I doubt it is anywhere near 40%.

Sorry, this country isn't "Papers please!" despite how much Joe would have you think otherwise. His deputies have detained legal citizens in their roundups, don't give a flying fuck about attorney-client privilege nor the First Amendment, and regularly invent probable cause to pull anyone they want over.

How the government treats its weakest and most vulnerable residents, legal or not, is how they will treat you if you are not careful.

[glynnjamin]

Originally Posted by Leo the Dog

Phoenicians are so ignorant it is almost funny when it comes to "illegals", as if, its only a Phoenix thing. Every city has large immigrant populations both legal and illegal and at much higher numbers, yet no one bitches about it in these cities. This place is such a hostile area for immigrants, it is just a staging ground for them to move on to other locations.

Man, that's funny, when I lived in NYC people bitched about illegals. When I lived in Seattle, people bitched about illegals. They seem to bitch about illegals everywhere because "they took are jobs!"

[Tempe_Duck]

Originally Posted by combusean

Sorry, this country isn't "Papers please!" despite how much Joe would have you think otherwise. His deputies have detained legal citizens in their roundups, don't give a flying fuck about attorney-client privilege nor the First Amendment, and regularly invent probable cause to pull anyone they want over.

How the government treats its weakest and most vulnerable residents, legal or not, is how they will treat you if you are not careful.

I agree with you to a point, this isn't and should never be a "papers please" country. One of the major reason Sheriff Joe is this way and gets away with it is because the population is fed up with the issue of illegals what what SOME of them bring along.

If there wasn't a large problem with illegal immigration then Sheriff Joe wouldn't be doing this because there would be this level of frustration amount the population.

[Tfom]

Isn't Sheriff Joe really busy wasting millions of dollars of our money on pointless investigations against County employees to settle personal vendetta's. I thought he was too busy with that to waste millions of dollars of our money so he can arrest 4 people who were looking for day labor jobs just so he can go home and jerk off to his giant face all over the news boasting about being america's toughest douchewad.

[Don B.]

Originally Posted by Tempe_Duck

If they are he legally then they should have noting to be scared of from Sheriff Joe. Even with that, I doubt it is anywhere near 40%.

Phoenix's metro population is about 40% Hispanic. Most of them are terrified they are going to be stopped, not because they are illegal (most aren't; estimates range from 5% to 20% of the Hispanic population may be illegal), but because their skin is brown. There is absolutely no question in my mind that too much of Arizona's law enforcement community is racially profiling. MCSO just may be one of the worst offenders in this area. White people are not presumed to be illegal like Hispanics are, even though there are people that live in Mexico with blond hair and blue eyes, and certainly there are white illegal aliens as well from other countries.

--don

[HX_Guy]

Paging Don B...paging Don B...

The Phoenix Metro Area grew by 76,771 people between July 2008 and July 2009. We are now at 4,364,094.

Are you still convinced that growth has stopped...or perhaps even reversed?

[Vicelord John]

The amount of money they are wasting on this bewilders me. I got a letter in the mail from Census saying "In the next couple of days, you're going to receive a census survey." Then I got the census survey, and then after I sent it in, I got a postcard asking me to make sure to send it back.

Hmmmmmmm how many dollars were spent by this failing country?

[HX_Guy]

Hey, it's keeping the postal workers busy.

[HooverDam]

Originally Posted by Vicelord John

The amount of money they are wasting on this bewilders me. I got a letter in the mail from Census saying "In the next couple of days, you're going to receive a census survey." Then I got the census survey, and then after I sent it in, I got a postcard asking me to make sure to send it back.

Hmmmmmmm how many dollars were spent by this failing country?

I had a friend who thought the same thing so he actually wrote the Census a letter about it. Turns out, by sending the letters before and afterwards they get a vastly improved rate of response (and they showed numbers to back this up) so its worth it.

[phxbyrd]

I've been treated badly by the Phoenix PD before and I'm white and my family has been in this country for many generations. That department is very pro-illegal, so why exactly should they expect better treatment than I get when I have zero record whatsoever except for traffic tickets? Legal people aren't terrified; that simply isn't true. My wife is Hispanic, her family, her friends, people I are work with, I've talked to them all. People who are legal and talk about being terrified are politically active and what they are doing is engaging in political discourse. I couldn't count the number of Hispanic people who told me they are against illegal immigration. I've a very liberal person but I'd like to see the border shut down.

[Vicelord John]

Phxbyrd that was out of left field.

If youre referring to the michael johnson thing, he is black...