Quote:
Originally Posted by suburbanite
You're example assumes those Canadian markets that have higher absolute numbers of fans are currently net zero contributors to NHL viewership, merchandise sales, etc. They're definitely not. A net single new fan in Arizona is worth more than a converted Leaf fan who now cheers for the new Hamilton team. In terms of the real growth opportunities for the league (ie. most things other than actual butts in seats) all you did was rearrange the existing pie.
The shawarma joint needs to be in each physical location because someone from Hamilton isn't driving to Toronto to pick up a shawarma. The NHL has determined (probably correctly) that hockey viewership in Canada is relatively inelastic whether there are 7 teams or 10. Putting a team in Hamilton that carves a decent niche for itself out of the current Leafs fanbase does nothing to improve the next tv deal that the league gets.
Attendance numbers for the league would definitely be better with more Canadian representation, but to be honest those are mostly feel good stats nowadays and not representative of what drives value creation in the North American model.
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You're making the huge, erroneous assumption that NHL fandom in Canadian cities (whether they have teams in the NHL or not) is maxed out and can't get any higher.
How many people in places like Pittsburgh or Green Bay follow the NFL? I betcha it's a lot higher than the 40-60% who follow the NHL in Canadian cities.
Given hockey's place in Canadian culture, history and lore the NHL should be as popular here as the NFL is in the U.S.
I'd argue that it used to be that way (or at least pretty close) but that it no longer is and it's moving in the wrong direction right now.
As esquire noted, NHL interest lapsed in Winnipeg and then surged back up when the Jets returned to town.
NHL interest has quite clearly stagnated and has even begun a slow decline in Quebec. This is not just due to the absence of the Nordiques (the Habs have sucked in a number of seasons) but it's surely a factor. As others have said heated rivalries are good for maintaining interest and passion even when teams aren't having a particularly good season.
Finally, it's a lot easier to rekindle interest in lapsed or passive NHL fans that used to follow the game than it is to attract and educate people for whom it's mostly an alien sport.