Provincial Economies II

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by big T

We're not in competition (QC-ON), but you have to admit it's kind of ironic that Ontario might end up having to buy (more) electricity, likely from Quebec, because of this VW deal. SO from a Qc point of view, not getting the jobs and corp tax for the actual thing is really stupid. Total "can't do attitude" as Lio said.

It was more than just availability of power. Skilled manufacturing talent in Southern Ontario was part of it:

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6780811

I am curious though at what point, Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada will realize that combining offshore wind, hydro and nuclear would make Eastern Canada an absolute clean energy powerhouse.

[GreaterMontréal]

Hydro-Quebec has all the power it needs in the Saguenay region or in Sept-îles but they knew that it would be very hard to bring skilled workers there.

According to a study by Hélimax, if only areas located within 25 km of a Hydro-Quebec power line are considered, Quebec’s wind energy potential amounts to 100,000 MW. If proximity to power lines is not taken into consideration, the potential increases fourfold to 400,000 MW.

https://aqper.com/en/what-is-the-win...tial-in-quebec

[casper]

Originally Posted by zahav

BC definitely benefits from fossil fuels still, no doubt. But correct me if I'm wrong, but the big carbon emitter is thermal coal for power plants, and not metallurgical (for making steeL). Vancouver's exports are 2/3 steel making coal, which I don't think is as bad as thermal. But still... It is used to make steel, which is extremely important and it isn't like burning coal when you could use hydro, wind, solar, nuclear, etc. Coal for power is more easily replaceable, but steel is still so crucial and there's no viable alternative to metallurgical coal, yet. I know sounds like I'm justifying fossil fuels, it isn't that I'm some industry plug, but I do think supplying it for steel isn't quite as bad... As for natural gas, I remember when that was being touted as the energy conscious decision lol, now it's all about hydro heat pumps. There's still huge markets for it so not reason to sound alarm bells, but planning for the day when it's gone is crucial.

When people say "coal" they are talking about a very broad family of products.

We need steel and currently metallurgical coal is the best option. It burns hot and is "better quality" coals.

Lignite (a type of coal; sometimes called brown coal) used for power generation in pretty crappy. It has a low concentration of carbon, high moisture concentration. Very low heating value. You usually build the generation station as close as possible to the mine site to avoid transporting it to far given how low the heating value is. South-eastern Saskatchewan has reserves of that product and the plants right next to mine sites.

Natural gas is weird. Some is a waste product from oil exploration, but most is deliberately extracted. Better than coal but not as good as renewable.

I am a big fan on LNG exports in that is is going to countries that would have been burning coal. So its a step up in protecting the environment.

in BC where nearly all our electricity comes from Hydro electric or renewable moving off natural gas is a positive.

[WarrenC12]

The thermal coal being exported through BC is actually from the US.

Previous BC premiers have tried to stop it, but it's a federal agreement, or maybe just part of NAFTA/whatever the dumb trump name is.

[Denscity]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

The thermal coal being exported through BC is actually from the US.

Previous BC premiers have tried to stop it, but it's a federal agreement, or maybe just part of NAFTA/whatever the dumb trump name is.

Ya it’s from South Dakota or maybe Wyoming?

[casper]

Originally Posted by Denscity

Ya it’s from South Dakota or maybe Wyoming?

Yes, it treated as an in-transit product not subject to any tax. Same thing applies to product exported from Canada through the US to a third party. An arrangement we want to keep so we can have our products transit the US.

The BC government did try to block it. Same thing for trans-mountain. However in both cases the court held that the federal government has control.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by Denscity

Ya it’s from South Dakota or maybe Wyoming?

South Dakota doesn't have any coal mines - they import from Wyoming. The coal that comes through the Port of Vancouver comes from Montana and Wyoming, and is partly exported to Japan. Montana and Wyoming sued the State of Washington when they thought they had a deal to export from a terminal there in 2020, but the state refused a permit. They lost in the Court of Appeal, and the Supreme Court declined to hear the case, so BC is their only choice. (They tried California too, but that's also a no-go).

Japan has almost no coal, but relies on it to generate over a quarter of its electricity. Most imports are from Australia, and some was from Russia. It has relatively low renewable energy generation, (less than coal), with around 9% from solar, 8% from hydro, 4% from biomass and 1% from wind, and is only growing those slowly.

[Airboy]

Originally Posted by Changing City

South Dakota doesn't have any coal mines - they import from Wyoming. The coal that comes through the Port of Vancouver comes from Montana and Wyoming, and is partly exported to Japan. Montana and Wyoming sued the State of Washington when they thought they had a deal to export from a terminal there in 2020, but the state refused a permit. They lost in the Court of Appeal, and the Supreme Court declined to hear the case, so BC is their only choice. (They tried California too, but that's also a no-go).

Japan has almost no coal, but relies on it to generate over a quarter of its electricity. Most imports are from Australia, and some was from Russia. It has relatively low renewable energy generation, (less than coal), with around 9% from solar, 8% from hydro, 4% from biomass and 1% from wind, and is only growing those slowly.

There is still Thermal Coal being mined and shipped in Alberta, but most of that is being exported. since power production is being phased out. There is also a number of metallurgical coal mines still producing and shipping through Prince Rupert and Vancouver. In the north areas around Hinton and Grade cache. and in the south around Blairmore.

Of the marketable coal produced in 2021,

49.3 per cent was subbituminous,
50.2 per cent was thermal bituminous, and
0.5 per cent was metallurgical bituminous.
https://www2.aer.ca/t/Production/vie...coalproduction

[Truenorth00]

Canadian taxpayers may end up taking a loss of C$20 billion (nearly $15 billion) on the government-owned Trans Mountain Pipeline after costs to expand it skyrocketed, according to Morningstar Inc.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government will probably get no more than C$15 billion when it goes to sell Trans Mountain — and possibly much less, Morningstar analyst Stephen Ellis said in an interview.

The government paid Kinder Morgan Inc. C$4.5 billion for the system in 2018 after the midstream company threatened to cancel plans to nearly triple its capacity to 890,000 barrels a day. The cost of that project has soared to about C$31 billion because of a range of factors including supply-chain challenges.

“At a C$31 billion investment cost, no way the pipeline is going to recover costs,” Ellis said.

....


Trans Mountain is Canada’s only oil pipeline to tidewater, moving crude from Alberta to the British Columbia coast near Vancouver. The government bought it because it considers the expansion to be economically important, giving oil shippers the option to export their product to markets other than the US.

“When complete, the Trans Mountain expansion will ensure Canada receives fair market value for our resources as we work to achieve net-zero by 2050,” Adrienne Vaupshas, a spokesperson for Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, said by email.

But Trans Mountain has to compete with Enbridge Inc.’s much-larger system that carries Canadian crude into the US as far as the Gulf Coast. That will limit the tolls Trans Mountain can charge the 20% of oil shippers without contracts, keeping the returns for the pipeline “very low,” Ellis said.

....

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...rningstar-says

Whoops.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...rningstar-says

Whoops.

Well Morningstar assessment does not line up with TD Securities and BMO Capital Markets assessment.

Either way, from strategic national interests perspective, the US has already demonstrated they can't be trusted as a host country for an oil pipeline that connects Canada to tidewater. Blocking a pre-approved, half-built pipeline made it clear that is not a secure long-term option.

[LightingGuy]

Well, after today I'm pretty sure we're well into a recession.

A major lighting component manufacturer in the US just shut their doors out of the blue. No warning, nothing. Took orders yesterday, then this morning put a sign up saying they've ceased operations effective immediately. 2300 people unemployed all of a sudden.

Some said it was related to the bank crisis, who knows. If it is, then this is just starting IMO.

Chatted with others around the electrical industry and at least half are saying things have been slow or very slow. Multiple consultants, manufacturers and sales agencies have had to let people go as of late.

Things are about to get rocky.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by LightingGuy

Well, after today I'm pretty sure we're well into a recession.

A major lighting component manufacturer in the US just shut their doors out of the blue. No warning, nothing. Took orders yesterday, then this morning put a sign up saying they've ceased operations effective immediately. 2300 people unemployed all of a sudden.

Some said it was related to the bank crisis, who knows. If it is, then this is just starting IMO.

Chatted with others around the electrical industry and at least half are saying things have been slow or very slow. Multiple consultants, manufacturers and sales agencies have had to let people go as of late.

Things are about to get rocky.

I thought the economy would be in much worse shape by now but it has been more good news stories more than anything lately in Canada. I do wonder if more banks will fail in other countries or if debt will crush some companies due to higher interest rates. If the banking sector is hit hard globally then Canada will fare better than most other countries.

[SignalHillHiker]

Budget day in Newfoundland and Labrador yesterday.

Overall, fairly routine - no new taxes or fees and a extension of many pandemic or inflation-related measures (such as a reduction in the provincial gas tax, removing HST on home insurance, increases for Income Support, etc.).

Two big things are a big focus on healthcare (1/3 of our budget) with the expansion of Collaborative Care Clinics across the province (these include doctors, nurses, nurse practitioners, pharmacists, etc. and are meant to be a more attractive way for doctors to work in family medicine) and significant bonuses for those practicing in rural areas (where ERs are routinely closed for long periods due to lack of staff).

There’s also an emphasis on transportation infrastructure, which in our case is unfortunately only highways. The key word being thrown around is connectivity. This could mean the fabled “Road to the North” connecting the just-finished Trans Labrador Highway across the south-centre of the province with its little coastal communities up the north coast. Or it could mean better connections in the island (for example, a more direct route from Harbour Breton to the Burin Peninsula.



We’re also going all in on wind-hydrogen development. Vast swaths of crown land have been set aside for wind development. 19 companies have responded to a call for bids. We’ve hired a Fairness Advisor to help guide the process. We’ll see how many get approved.

Deficit of $160M on a budget of $9.8B. We expect to return to a balanced budget in 2024-25, two years ahead of schedule. We’re still very reliant on fossil fuels, of course, but tech, the fishery (incl aquaculture), and other sectors are quickly reaching a significant enough size to keep the lights on for us.

[Truenorth00]

Why is NFLD going with onshore wind when offshore wind has higher efficiency and matches an existing seafaring and industrial skills base?

[SignalHillHiker]

This isn’t my area of expertise, but I understand we are looking at both. I think there are still jurisdictional questions when it comes to offshore wind-hydrogen developments, whereas Ottawa is uninvolved with what we do on land and the land-based projects are already conclusively to our exclusive benefit.

We’ve only just ended the complete moratorium on wind development (coinciding with the island being connected to the North American grid for the first time). Otherwise wind is too unpredictable and we could end up with excess power we can’t get rid of melting our infrastructure (as has happened in the UK). So there’s a baby steps aspect to where we are.

There are also a lot of topographic features in the areas open for bids that increase wind frequency.

I’d also expect in some sort of make work way the land-based towers have a higher economic footprint in the areas they’re installed.

And, finally, the inshore fishery (smaller boats that are our historical practice and mostly sustainable; as opposed to offshore trawlers that scrape the seafloor of everything that moves) is likely concerned.

[Truenorth00]

The reason offshore wind has boomed the last few years is because the skill set is similar to building oil rigs, the capacity factor is much higher and you can build turbines that you could never build on land.



Was really hoping to see NFLD go all out to become North America's offshore wind superpower. NFLD has more wind potential than most US states and any Canadian province. It's also energy that Quebec needs in the long run. This focus on onshore wind is kinda disappointing. I gotta say. Just want to see NFLD live up to its incredible potential here.

[SignalHillHiker]

I wouldn’t worry. It’ll happen. I haven’t seen or heard anything to suggest Ottawa is going to make offshore wind-hydrogen development difficult for us. To my knowledge, we just haven’t reached an agreement yet - main sticking points will be who benefits and whether shared jurisdiction will be granted to us (as with offshore oil and gas). The latter will be especially important in speeding up environmental assessments, especially if one blanket one for the entire offshore is not allowed and separate ones must be done for each region or development.

Onshore is still a viable development, and is the easiest thing to proceed with immediately while we negotiate with our Imperial masters . I expect we’ll even still see hydroelectric development in the future, and increased connections from
NL to the Maritimes (provided Hydro Quebec remains unable to purchase any Maritime utilities and block our access at that end also).

[Loco101]

Are there many provincial government enterprises (crown-corporations) that operate outside the province that runs them?

The only one I can think of is Ontario Northland Railway (ONR) which has a line that runs from Kirkland Lake ON to Rouyn-Noranda QC to serve mainly the mining industry. That line has been around for quite a long time but it's an Ontario Government enterprise that is operating in Quebec. And there are employees in Quebec who work for ONR and technically are employed by the Ontario government

[SignalHillHiker]

Memorial University of Newfoundland has the FrancoForum's Institut Frecker in St. Pierre et Miquelon, France. It's where French language students at Memorial do the program. I'm not sure if it counts as "crown corporation". In Newfoundland and Labrador, we don't distinguish between formal Crown Corporations and the provincial designation of "Agencies, Boards and Commissions" (ABCs). Memorial is an ABC. I'm not sure what the criteria are, something to do with percentage of board appointed by a Minister of the Crown or whatever. Main thing being, absent election consequences, Provincial Government can do whatever tf it wants to them, they exist only because the province has delegated authority (for example, all municipalities, health authorities, etc.).

They also operate a campus in Harlow, England.

College of the North Atlantic, our public college system in Newfoundland, has like 15 campuses throughout the province and one in Doha, Qatar.

I'm not sure Nalcor's involvement in other provinces, but Fortis (basically the private sector wing of Nalcor, behind the scenes) owns utilities throughout North America, especially in the United States.

Provincial Airlines (I think they might be private?), but definitely were somehow government-related at some point, have operations throughout the Caribbean and South America (and, though that, in the Netherlands).

I think that's it. Most of our Crown corps are just inside the province, of course.