What is Halifax's future?

[Jyeatbvg]

Long time lurker, first time poster. I just moved to Halifax for a job and I'm fascinated to see so many cranes in the downtown area. Real estate developments --> economic development --> bigger city...right? But more buildings may not tell the whole story.

I've noticed most of the new developments are condominiums. It seems that the ratio of residential to business developments is extremely one-sided (in favour of residential). Are these developers expecting a bump in Halifax's population? If so, how can they actually expect to attract people to their condos when there really isn't a whole lot planned in terms of things to do in the city itself? There was a discussion in the King's Wharf thread about that development having difficulty selling its rooms, and one theory was that there really wasn't a whole lot to do in the area yet. As a city planner, would it not be logical to expand the business sector before the residential sector? It seems Halifax is adopting the Chinese mentality, which led to this.

I see charts like this:


And then I walk down Barrington St. in the middle of downtown and see a row of this:


In short, downtown Halifax sucks. With the historic buildings and prime location, one could almost imagine a Toronto's Queen St. West type feel with incessant crowds, plenty of neat 'hole in the wall' type establishments and ultimately, a great place for an afternoon of strolling and people watching. At current, downtown Halifax lacks the elegance and charm that many cities thrive on. Why? Perhaps it's part of a bigger issue.

So I ask you...what is Halifax's future? Is the city headed in the right direction? Can we expect to see an expansion of the city's economic sector in the near future, and to what extent?

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Jyeatbvg

Can we expect to see an expansion of the city's economic sector in the near future, and to what extent?

This is kind of a weird way to look at the situation. The population and economy tend to change gradually. The population of Halifax tends to grow by around 1% a year and the economy grows by around 2-3%. Growth in the metro area has gone up a bit in recent years but more significantly, as that chart indicates, there's been a shift in investment from the suburbs to the inner parts of the city. Halifax tends not to be one of those cities that has a boom and bust economy where prospects change very suddenly from year to year.

The housing market in Halifax is very different from China. Prices haven't been increasing much (partly no doubt because there is so much supply available) and I doubt there are a lot of speculative buyers (if there are they aren't profiting much). A lot of the new residential development is rental right now. Most of the buildings are mixed use and some of them are more commercial rather than residential. I would say there is a higher risk of overbuilding in the office market than the residential market.

Planners can determine what types of land uses are permitted in a given area but it is the developers who create the actual proposals and determine which types of uses to focus on based on what they think will sell. Generally speaking in Halifax you can build businesses or residential just about wherever you want; the uses are determined by the market.

[scryer]

I also feel that when some of those mixed-use developments start finishing up, and when residents start moving in that there will be a greater demand for things to do in Halifax especially concerning nightlife.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by Jyeatbvg

In short, downtown Halifax sucks. With the historic buildings and prime location, one could almost imagine a Toronto's Queen St. West type feel with incessant crowds, plenty of neat 'hole in the wall' type establishments and ultimately, a great place for an afternoon of strolling and people watching. At current, downtown Halifax lacks the elegance and charm that many cities thrive on. Why?

Because, I think, downtown is currently making up for years of stagnation with one very intense and prolonged burst of construction and revitalization, making it an awkward combination of run-down, under restoration, and revitalized. (For example, the picture you posted is of a building that has recently been renovated and where an oyster bar is going to open in a few weeks.)

I disagree that downtown "sucks," though it's definitely experiencing major growing pains. I'd also disagree that there's nothing to do. The quantity of downtown bars, restaurants, cultural institutions, and other amenities is second to none for a 400,000-person city (and many much larger ones) in Canada. Downtown Halifax in 2020 vs 2010 might be similar to Queen West in 2010 vs 2000 ("elegant" certainly wouldn't have been the word to come to mind in the latter case).

Finally, the trend back toward urban living took a few years longer to get to Halifax, but we're making up for it very rapidly, hence a lot of the intense construction activity in the city centre. I am starting to wonder when we're going to see a drop-off in developments and approvals though. Population growth is strong, and growth in the centre of the city is stronger still, but I nonetheless feel like it's getting pretty obvious that new construction is going to over-shoot demand.

I'm not too worried about that (I think property values will hold up fine) but it's not the healthiest way to develop. Disruption due to intense construction activity, and inconsistent, feast-or-famine employment in the development sector are only two concerns...

[Jyeatbvg]

Originally Posted by someone123

The housing market in Halifax is very different from China. Prices haven't been increasing much (partly no doubt because there is so much supply available) and I doubt there are a lot of speculative buyers (if there are they aren't profiting much). A lot of the new residential development is rental right now. Most of the buildings are mixed use and some of them are more commercial rather than residential. I would say there is a higher risk of overbuilding in the office market than the residential market.

Planners can determine what types of land uses are permitted in a given area but it is the developers who create the actual proposals and determine which types of uses to focus on based on what they think will sell. Generally speaking in Halifax you can build businesses or residential just about wherever you want; the uses are determined by the market.

Insightful post. With the large supply in housing it just seems odd to me that a majority of new developments are more housing. Would it be correct to say that a majority of those moving into these new condominium developments are those already living in Halifax?

Originally Posted by Drybrain

I disagree that downtown "sucks," though it's definitely experiencing major growing pains. I'd also disagree that there's nothing to do. The quantity of downtown bars, restaurants, cultural institutions, and other amenities is second to none for a 400,000-person city (and many much larger ones) in Canada. Downtown Halifax in 2020 vs 2010 might be similar to Queen West in 2010 vs 2000 ("elegant" certainly wouldn't have been the word to come to mind in the latter case).

Finally, the trend back toward urban living took a few years longer to get to Halifax, but we're making up for it very rapidly, hence a lot of the intense construction activity in the city centre. I am starting to wonder when we're going to see a drop-off in developments and approvals though. Population growth is strong, and growth in the centre of the city is stronger still, but I nonetheless feel like it's getting pretty obvious that new construction is going to over-shoot demand.

I apologize for the "downtown sucks" line - I should've worded it better. I meant to say that the downtown as it currently stands is a far cry from what it could be. Outside of the Spring Garden strip south of South Park, and the harbourfront during the summer, I haven't noticed any other areas that are ripe with foot traffic. The area surrounding pizza corner perhaps, with bars and restaurants?

It seems like downtown has pockets that are highly trafficked, but these pockets are segmented so the area as a whole doesn't seem fluid. Hopefully that makes sense.

Your point about urban living was insightful, and helps to answer my question posed to someone123. If the new condominium develops are for current Haligonians moving into the downtown core (as opposed to outsiders moving into the city), it would make more sense as to why there are so many of these being developed in the first place.

[IanWatson]

Originally Posted by Jyeatbvg

Insightful post. With the large supply in housing it just seems odd to me that a majority of new developments are more housing. Would it be correct to say that a majority of those moving into these new condominium developments are those already living in Halifax?

There has been lots of commercial development in the core too. TD Building and Nova Centre are two big ones that immediately jump to mind. Other big commercial developments, such as Eon Square, are happening outside the core. The result is that commercial vacancy rates are now at the highest they've been in a few decades, so that'll probably be the end of commercial development in the core for this development cycle.

For residential, my personal observation (grounded in nothing but my own observations) is that we're not just developing more housing, but different housing. There is demand for all the new condos because people are downsizing. That consequence of this is that detached homes are sitting on the market a lot longer (which is just fine for me... I'll be in the market for one of those homes soon enough).

[Keith P.]

One of the things that never ceases to amaze me is that all the new street-level commercial space on Brunswick St in the Duke-Cogswell block remains completely unoccupied now well into its 2nd year.

[IanWatson]

Originally Posted by Keith P.

One of the things that never ceases to amaze me is that all the new street-level commercial space on Brunswick St in the Duke-Cogswell block remains completely unoccupied now well into its 2nd year.

I'm not allllll that surprised. Brunswick isn't yet a main pedestrian route (hopefully Cogswell redevelopment changes that), and the design of the spaces is kind of awkward.

I'd be curious to know what they're asking for rents. I find property owners have a habit of holding out for the "big whale" lease rather than offer lower rents and get locked in at those lower rents. I note the advertising material has colours that are conveniently similar to those of a certain drug store chain...

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by Keith P.

One of the things that never ceases to amaze me is that all the new street-level commercial space on Brunswick St in the Duke-Cogswell block remains completely unoccupied now well into its 2nd year.

I've heard different rumours about that whole stretch. (At various times I've heard that a salon will relocate there, that a brewery is going to open, and that a restuarant is going in.) I feel like there's some sort of long game being planned here, but it is strange.

[eastcoastal]

Originally Posted by Jyeatbvg

...

I've noticed most of the new developments are condominiums. It seems that the ratio of residential to business developments is extremely one-sided (in favour of residential). ... I walk down Barrington St. in the middle of downtown and see a row of this:


... At current, downtown Halifax lacks the elegance and charm that many cities thrive on. Why? Perhaps it's part of a bigger issue

Always interesting to get some fresh perspectives from people new to the area.

Part of what you are seeing is the result of many many years of very little development of any type downtown. From the 1950s-70s, there was considerable effort to move people out of downtown... then the 70s and 80s replaces what would have been low-scale cramped urban dwellings with towers that focused primarily on commercial (with a bit of residential on the fringes of the core. Since the 80s, and until 2010-ish, there were relatively few people living on the peninsula... existing housing stock was stable, but the numbers of people living in a given home reduced. There just weren't enough people to justify a vibrant downtown outside of some destination areas - shopping on spring garden or drinking in pockets a few blocks off barrington.

In the mid-2000s, planning bylaws were changed downtown and the city tried to encourage some mixed use development (newbylaws, special grant programs for barrington) - we are now seeing hordes of condos going up (I remain interested to see if they fill), but the balance of typologies is not overly residential if you consider the pre-existing stock of commercial-focused buildings and the few commerical redevelopments around.

When you ask about the future of the city and talk about Queen St. West, I think you'll probably see much of the development that might relate to West Queen West happen outside the core of Spring Garden/Barrington and centred on Agricola St in the north and Quinpool Rd in the west: both streets with some considerable barriers to charm, but much more potential in terms of engaged citizens living close by with fairly contiguous commercial frontage (moreso on Quinpool) that suggests a few tweaks will help things take off there.

I think we will probably see downtown construction slow in a few years, then it will likely take a few more to get HIGH levels of activity on the streets... in the meantime, I'd expect more immediate improvements in vitality close to the Quinpool and Agricola corridors.

[eastcoastal]

Originally Posted by Keith P.

One of the things that never ceases to amaze me is that all the new street-level commercial space on Brunswick St in the Duke-Cogswell block remains completely unoccupied now well into its 2nd year.

I really don't get it either. I'm surprised that storefronts in the still-under-lots-of-construction parts of Barrington are filling first. I get that Brunswick isn't already a hot spot for shopping, but c'mon, there are lots of people living in those towers and the hotels must disgorge potential customers on the regular.

[portapetey]

I think Haligonians think in very short distances.

All that new retail space would be considered too far from the Barrington / Argyle / Spring garden commercial areas in many people's minds (even though Scotia Square is *right there*).

I think the Scotiabank Centre and the Scotia Square office space / parking garage provide a bit of a psychological barrier too, isolating the Brunswick St. stretch from the rest of downtown.

[OldDartmouthMark]

Originally Posted by eastcoastal

I really don't get it either. I'm surprised that storefronts in the still-under-lots-of-construction parts of Barrington are filling first. I get that Brunswick isn't already a hot spot for shopping, but c'mon, there are lots of people living in those towers and the hotels must disgorge potential customers on the regular.

Might be a bit of a 'Field Of Dreams' scenario, though. Build it and they will come...

...meaning that if some businesses open up there that are good enough to make people come to the area, the street and adjacent businesses will benefit as well.

But, who will be the first? I would think that it would be a risky proposition for any business, even one that has a good clientele already. All the points that people have mentioned about Cogswell and the layout in general have caused this part of the street to be all but forgotten. Having to climb a hill to get there might be another deterrent to some.

However, if a really good restaurant, bar, small grocery store, or something of the like were enough to draw in customers, people will get in the habit of going there and will soon realize that it's really not that far out of the way.

Just my 2¢.

[worldlyhaligonian]

Originally Posted by Jyeatbvg

In short, downtown Halifax sucks. With the historic buildings and prime location, one could almost imagine a Toronto's Queen St. West type feel with incessant crowds, plenty of neat 'hole in the wall' type establishments and ultimately, a great place for an afternoon of strolling and people watching. At current, downtown Halifax lacks the elegance and charm that many cities thrive on. Why? Perhaps it's part of a bigger issue.

So I ask you...what is Halifax's future? Is the city headed in the right direction? Can we expect to see an expansion of the city's economic sector in the near future, and to what extent?

I don't think you'll find a city the size of Halifax with anywhere near the nightlife of Halifax, save St. John's because its cultural. Western Canadian big cities aren't even as good. Foot traffic is non-existant there due to a car culture and mentality. I'd take Halifax over Regina or Winnipeg any day of the week.

As for the condos... boomers are beginning the process of downsizing from their homes. The biggest economic secret in Halifax is probably that their is alot of money that has been brought back here from other places and there are large numbers of older and relatively wealthy people. Money comes home because this is one of the most beautiful places in the country.

[portapetey]

Originally Posted by worldlyhaligonian

I don't think you'll find a city the size of Halifax with anywhere near the nightlife of Halifax, save St. John's because its cultural. Western Canadian big cities aren't even as good. Foot traffic is non-existant there due to a car culture and mentality. I'd take Halifax over Regina or Winnipeg any day of the week.

As for the condos... boomers are beginning the process of downsizing from their homes. The biggest economic secret in Halifax is probably that their is alot of money that has been brought back here from other places and there are large numbers of older and relatively wealthy people. Money comes home because this is one of the most beautiful places in the country.

As mentioned in the Queen's Marque thread, the nightlife in downtown might actually suffer as a result of all the new residential development, as opposed to benefiting from it as hoped.

We already know that as soon as a new residential building goes up beside entertainment spaces, even long-standing ones, the noise complaints start and the businesses suffer.

Perhaps we'll see a more vibrant daytime culture downtown to offset any change that might occur in the nighttime scene.

As others have pointed out, you'll not find many cities at all the size of Halifax that have as much to offer, and as much variety. As I've posited elsewhere on these forums, I think Halifax does suffer from a perception that it's a lot bigger than it is, for whatever reason, and expectations are unreasonably high as a result.

[Jyeatbvg]

Originally Posted by portapetey

As mentioned in the Queen's Marque thread, the nightlife in downtown might actually suffer as a result of all the new residential development, as opposed to benefiting from it as hoped.

We already know that as soon as a new residential building goes up beside entertainment spaces, even long-standing ones, the noise complaints start and the businesses suffer.

Perhaps we'll see a more vibrant daytime culture downtown to offset any change that might occur in the nighttime scene.

As others have pointed out, you'll not find many cities at all the size of Halifax that have as much to offer, and as much variety. As I've posited elsewhere on these forums, I think Halifax does suffer from a perception that it's a lot bigger than it is, for whatever reason, and expectations are unreasonably high as a result.

I admit that the bolded part may apply to me. As a Toronto native, I've known Halifax to be the "big" city in the East. It is, but with a population of 400K it doesn't even scratch the surface of other cities I've frequented like Toronto, Montreal, and Ottawa. I've always put Halifax on the same tier as "other big cities outside Ontario" like Calgary and Vancouver, when in reality it's more like a London or Hamilton.

[eastcoastal]

Originally Posted by Jyeatbvg

I admit that the bolded part may apply to me. As a Toronto native, I've known Halifax to be the "big" city in the East. It is, but with a population of 400K it doesn't even scratch the surface of other cities I've frequented like Toronto, Montreal, and Ottawa. I've always put Halifax on the same tier as "other big cities outside Ontario" like Calgary and Vancouver, when in reality it's more like a London or Hamilton.

Yes... and while Halifax benefits from being the big fish in the small pond - I feel it offers more than many its size - there are certain benefits that just won't come with the current size of population and density of people on the peninsula... there just isn't a large enough market to justify contiguous exciting retail street frontage here like there is on Queen West - we'll continue to develop in pockets, and that's OK... I suspect that only once population and density are BOTH high, will we see the pockets start to feel more like they flow seamlessly into one another.

On the upside, the pockets really aren't that far apart.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by Jyeatbvg

I admit that the bolded part may apply to me. As a Toronto native, I've known Halifax to be the "big" city in the East. It is, but with a population of 400K it doesn't even scratch the surface of other cities I've frequented like Toronto, Montreal, and Ottawa. I've always put Halifax on the same tier as "other big cities outside Ontario" like Calgary and Vancouver, when in reality it's more like a London or Hamilton.

I think this is part of the thing with Halifax and expectations--because it's a capital, and the largest city in the region, it gets naturally compared to much larger cities, though its actual size class is decidedly smaller.|

I think it's compliment to Halifax that even after living here, I naturally compare it to much larger cities in terms of what it offers and what I expect out of it. It's no Toronto in terms of urban vitality, etc, but the day-to-day feeling I get on our streets is closer to Toronto than London or Kitchener or whatever. Given the size discrepancy, that's saying quite a bit.

[scryer]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

I think this is part of the thing with Halifax and expectations--because it's a capital, and the largest city in the region, it gets naturally compared to much larger cities, though its actual size class is decidedly smaller.|

That's a good point to bring up, and I agree that Halifax does get compared to the big cities of Canada, which can sometimes be a little unfair (but whatever ).

I think that Halifax is in the perfect spot to really learn from the other cities' past mistakes and to develop itself with more informed decisions based than what the other cities may have done. All I can think of are Rapid Transit examples, but an example would be, if Halifax wanted to invest into Rapid Transit, it can look at technology that was pioneered by Vancouver for its Skytrain system or it can learn from how Winnipeg messed up their crappy design of their BRT system.

Bottom line is that I see a lot of potential in Halifax that has never really been tapped into before, and the city has a great foundation to build from.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

It's no Toronto in terms of urban vitality, etc, but the day-to-day feeling I get on our streets is closer to Toronto than London or Kitchener or whatever. Given the size discrepancy, that's saying quite a bit.

I've mostly seen the two separate models for trying to figure out where the city fits compared to the rest of the country. People usually either go the qualitative "big city and capital" route or they look at population numbers. Neither one gives a very accurate picture of the differences.

One thing I find that people tend to miss out on is that Halifax is of much greater historical importance than all but a couple of other Canadian cities. Halifax inherited a lot of heritage buildings and spaces that are typically characteristic of much larger and more important modern North American cities (unfortunately this unique local heritage isn't valued much). From around 1750-1880 and during the world wars it was a very important and busy place.

The difference isn't unlike comparing some European and North American cities. Copenhagen is more urbane than Phoenix, even though it has fewer inhabitants. It's also the more important of the two cities culturally and historically, so it has a lot more to see and do. On top of this Phoenix mostly developed in a car-oriented fashion while a larger share of Copenhagen is built around pedestrians and transit.