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  #26901  
Old Posted Sep 17, 2020, 8:05 PM
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Originally Posted by q12 View Post
So likely only a Cat 1 or low end Cat 2 at landfall in NS. Not the worst case. It's amazing how many tracks take it right over Halifax though. That would make it the 3rd storm in 17 years to make a direct landfall as Halifax.
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  #26902  
Old Posted Sep 17, 2020, 8:16 PM
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Somewhere between a tropical storm and low category 2 pretty much covers 99% of scenarios for almost any hurricane impacting Canadian waters. Since they're usually undergoing some degree of post-tropical transition upon landfall it usually isn't the worst thing in the world to be near the "eye" of the storm. As the transition begins to take place, the worst conditions which are normally encircling the eye begin to shift; winds to the west, rains to the east of the eye. In those situations, more extreme weather conditions are usually found ~50 km to either side of the eye.

A few more models....looks like as of today most models are on board with the storm tracking towards Atlantic Canada as opposed to safely out to sea. I guess we'll see how things change by morning:









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  #26903  
Old Posted Sep 17, 2020, 8:42 PM
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Water Temperatures along Teddy's potential path:



That little green band of water off our coast hovering in the 20 C is probably not enough to weaken it if it doesn't slow down. If it slows down over those waters on our coast it could weaken.


Updated model from yesterday:

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  #26904  
Old Posted Sep 17, 2020, 8:42 PM
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Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
We'll spot you a few. You can take a couple of nor'easters while you're at it...…..
Ha i'll have to ask everyone else if they're into that.
I remember going to the Abbotsford Costco with their wide open entrance door and they had a nor'easter winter storm and the snow was blowing quite far into the store!
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  #26905  
Old Posted Sep 17, 2020, 8:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chadillaccc View Post
So likely only a Cat 1 or low end Cat 2 at landfall in NS. Not the worst case. It's amazing how many tracks take it right over Halifax though. That would make it the 3rd storm in 17 years to make a direct landfall as Halifax.
That's not unusual. Having an actual hurricane hit once every 5-10 years is pretty standard and then the sub-hurricane tropical storms are much more common than that.

Before Juan in 2003 Halifax was hit by Hortense in 1996. If anything the Juan -> Dorian gap was kind of big (maybe there was another one in there I don't remember?).
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  #26906  
Old Posted Sep 17, 2020, 9:02 PM
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Pretty big cooldown coming up for much of Ontario and Quebec, at least for overnight lows.

Starting tonight and for the next 3-4 nights, Ottawa-Gatineau is forecast to zero, +1 or -1.

Tomorrow even northern parts of Toronto could see frost with a low of 3 forecast.

Places like Bancroft, which is fairly south-central in Ontario but generally cold spot, could hit -5C sometime in the next couple of days.

Below freezing temperatures are forecast in a lot of places in the NE US as well.
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  #26907  
Old Posted Sep 17, 2020, 9:21 PM
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I'm going up north to a cottage for the weekend. You better believe I'm bringing my toque and getting lots of firewood
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  #26908  
Old Posted Sep 17, 2020, 9:21 PM
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Pretty decent chance we will see frost in a lot of areas. If we “survive” that stretch of cold nights, the long term forecast calls for overnight lows in the 10-12C range until at least early October, which would probably get us a first freeze around mid-October as usual.
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  #26909  
Old Posted Sep 17, 2020, 9:32 PM
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Wow, EC is forecasting a low of 2 on Saturday morning for Chatham. The all time September low is 1.5.

I'm expecting around 4-5 at my house. The lake won't help much if it's that cold and coming from the NE. Also going to cover my garden!
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  #26910  
Old Posted Sep 17, 2020, 9:37 PM
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  #26911  
Old Posted Sep 17, 2020, 9:49 PM
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And from the Canadian Hurricane Centre:



This has Teddy off the coast of Nova Scotia Tuesday afternoon as a strong category 1. By tomorrow mornings update they should have a first guess at a landfall unless it veers northeastward.

And yes, there will be a week of Hurricane talk now. Enjoy it.
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  #26912  
Old Posted Sep 17, 2020, 9:54 PM
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Anthony Farnell Chief Meteorologist for Global News:
Quote:
Halifax on the fringe of the 5-day NHC cone. #Teddy

https://twitter.com/AnthonyFarnell/s...01755804266496
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  #26913  
Old Posted Sep 18, 2020, 1:33 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by q12 View Post
Water Temperatures along Teddy's potential path:



That little green band of water off our coast hovering in the 20 C is probably not enough to weaken it if it doesn't slow down. If it slows down over those waters on our coast it could weaken.
19C is basically Arctic temperatures for a hurricane. It will weaken significantly even for 2-3 hours over those waters.

It will barely be Cat 1 by the time it reaches NS.

BTW-If there was a good illustration of how cursed Canada is weather wise, this is it. Water in the high 20's and then suddenly as you approach Canada, BOOM temperature goes down 10C.

Thank you Labrador Current.
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  #26914  
Old Posted Sep 18, 2020, 1:37 AM
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Freeze List - 2020

1) - Whitehorse YT - September 5th (-0.3C)
2) - Saskatoon, SK - September 7th (-3.4C)
3) - Regina, SK - September 7th (-0.9C)
4) - Winnipeg, MB - September 8th (-0.7C)
5) - Iqaluit NU - September 8th (-0.4C)
6) - Thunder Bay, ON - September 9th (-0.3C)
7) - Yellowknife, NT - September 12th (-0.1C)
8) - Prince George, BC - September 15th (-1.2C)
9) - Sherbrooke, QC - September 15th (-1.1C)
10) - Sudbury, ON - September 17th (-0.4)


Charlottetown, PEI
Fredericton, NB
Moncton, NB
Saint John, NB
Vancouver BC
Victoria BC
Kamloops BC
Kelowna BC
Calgary AB
Edmonton AB
Lethbridge AB
Windsor ON
London ON
Toronto ON
Kingston ON
Ottawa ON
Montreal QC
Quebec City QC
Halifax NS
Sydney NS
Corner Brook NL
St. John's NL

Sudbury added to the list.
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  #26915  
Old Posted Sep 18, 2020, 3:11 AM
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17C and sunny! We're back to below average. One day above was enough.

Low of 14C this morning.

The warmspot was Lytton, BC at 27.3C
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  #26916  
Old Posted Sep 18, 2020, 3:12 AM
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This is pretty much the same trajectory that Hurricane Juan took, and that storm did a lot of damage to Halifax, central NS and PEI.

Juan was just a Cat 1 at landfall, but because of it's rapid forward motion, it was effectively a Cat 2 storm. Could Teddy be the same????

Of course it could. #2020.
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  #26917  
Old Posted Sep 18, 2020, 6:54 AM
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I hope Vancouver cleared up.
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  #26918  
Old Posted Sep 18, 2020, 10:43 AM
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Quote:
2003 Hurricane Juan made landfall between Shad Bay and Prospect in the Halifax Regional Municipality early on September 29 as a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 100 mph (160 km/h).
Source:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL152003_Juan.pdf

Quote:
some unofficial estimates have placed gusts as high as 145 mph (230 km/h)
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  #26919  
Old Posted Sep 18, 2020, 10:46 AM
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^ We are talking wind gusts as of now, while the hurricane is still over warm waters though (I think?). I wouldn’t expect wind gusts like those at landfall.
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  #26920  
Old Posted Sep 18, 2020, 10:51 AM
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Am I correct in assuming smoke has arrived here now? Sun is visible but the sky is white above the clouds.
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