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  #41  
Old Posted Jul 6, 2020, 2:18 PM
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Originally Posted by MolteN View Post
Assuming the same rate of growth for 2020 that brings Halifax to 450,185 people.
2020 will not have the same rate of growth as 2019.
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  #42  
Old Posted Jul 6, 2020, 4:43 PM
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Maybe we will make up for it in 2021 and be allowed to have more people into our province.
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  #43  
Old Posted Jul 6, 2020, 4:46 PM
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2020 will not have the same rate of growth as 2019.
Most growth in Halifax comes from immigration and I believe some of that was interrupted in 2020. But what we end up seeing for a growth rate depends largely on how many people the province and federal government decide to let in. It's a big question mark right now.

In the long run (2-10 years) I am not sure why growth couldn't return to the old norm. The potential for growth may even go up if the US does not allow much immigration, or if the economy in NS does relatively well compared to other areas. I think that fundamentally, growth in Halifax is driven by the fact that more and more jobs can be moved around North America, wages there are somewhat lower than the US, and the area has a good standard of living and cost compared to the larger metro areas. Covid has not changed that and if anything might have made outsourcing to NS from the US easier as more companies have been pressured to adopt remote work.

The East Hants census division will be added to the Halifax CMA for the 2021 census since so many residents of that area are commuters. East Hants had a population of 22,453. So the Halifax-East Hants area with these new borders would have had roughly 463,000 a year ago. I expect Halifax will hit 500,000 in less than 5 years.
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  #44  
Old Posted Jul 6, 2020, 6:54 PM
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Very exciting to hear the corridor region of the Hants municipality will be added to the Halifax CMA. I'd argue the Mt uniacke community along the 101 are also largely commuters. It's very feasible we'll break the 500,000 mark in the next 5 year time frame *fingers crossed*

I feel if the trend of housing insecurity continues to get worse in the larger regions in central and western canada. It's going to lay the foundation for the medium sized cities of Victoria, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Saskatoon, Waterloo, Ottawa/ gatineau region, Quebec, Moncton and Halifax to really pick up the slack and take off.
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  #45  
Old Posted Jul 6, 2020, 7:15 PM
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I feel if the trend of housing insecurity continues to get worse in the larger regions in central and western canada. It's going to lay the foundation for the medium sized cities of Victoria, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Saskatoon, Waterloo, Ottawa/ gatineau region, Quebec, Moncton and Halifax to really pick up the slack and take off.
This is how it works in the United States. Cities like Nashville or Austin are the boomtowns, not New York, Chicago, or Los Angeles.

There will always be some amenities and jobs that the smaller cities lack but I don't believe these are important to the bulk of new immigrants to Canada. The median newcomer to Canada will not be a regular at the opera or in expensive restaurants or get a job as the CEO of a bank.
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  #46  
Old Posted Jul 9, 2020, 8:27 PM
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This is how it works in the United States. Cities like Nashville or Austin are the boomtowns, not New York, Chicago, or Los Angeles.

There will always be some amenities and jobs that the smaller cities lack but I don't believe these are important to the bulk of new immigrants to Canada. The median newcomer to Canada will not be a regular at the opera or in expensive restaurants or get a job as the CEO of a bank.
Bit of a generalization don't you think? Boomtown is a subjective term playing on percentages. When your economy is so big, a blip there is larger than a boom in a smaller city. People are still pouring into those bigger cities, they just can't hit a growth rate of 14% because they would burst at the seams. NYC, LA and Chicago drive the national economies not just local state demand like the Austin or Nashville and have greater importance when people are looking for a place to live and work in.

I know a broad range of new Canadians and they eat at the same expensive restaurants I do. I've heard multiple times from multiple people that they wished there was more to do here. They expect transit options and venues to be available to them like stadiums, arenas and performing stages, so I can't say I agree with your statement, we just think that way because it makes it easier to say no to making investments in those areas.
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  #47  
Old Posted Jul 9, 2020, 8:55 PM
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Originally Posted by TheNovaScotian View Post
Bit of a generalization don't you think? Boomtown is a subjective term playing on percentages. When your economy is so big, a blip there is larger than a boom in a smaller city. People are still pouring into those bigger cities, they just can't hit a growth rate of 14% because they would burst at the seams. NYC, LA and Chicago drive the national economies not just local state demand like the Austin or Nashville and have greater importance when people are looking for a place to live and work in.
Not really. I guess what you are saying is that the big cities have larger growth in absolute numbers while the smaller cities have a higher percentage but smaller increases in population. This has not been the case in the United States during the past decade.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...tistical_areas

The Austin MSA gained 500,000 while the New York MSA gained about 200,000.

I would also guess that NYC's role as a "gateway city" for immigration is somewhat reduced compared to what it was in decades past, but I have not seen numbers for that.

We are not quite to this level in Canada but demographics have been shifting in that direction. I would guess that real estate costs are a big part of that.

Quote:
I know a broad range of new Canadians and they eat at the same expensive restaurants I do. I've heard multiple times from multiple people that they wished there was more to do here. They expect transit options and venues to be available to them like stadiums, arenas and performing stages, so I can't say I agree with your statement, we just think that way because it makes it easier to say no to making investments in those areas.
I am not arguing that immigrants to Canada have less discerning tastes or anything like that. Nor am I saying that there is no need for smaller cities to aspire to have a better food scene or more amenities. I am just pointing out that the 1% stuff in the big cities, while often celebrated or discussed, is by definition not what most average people are looking for. For most people, things like median job prospects and housing costs are more important than high-end amenities. Hence I do not expect the high-end stuff to drive demographic growth in urban Canada. I think it might be nice for Halifax to get a big stadium (which BTW I would not put in that 1% or "high end" category) but I am skeptical that it will have a big impact on population growth.

Halifax also has an advantage as far as access to nature and small town type daytrips compared to big metro areas where you either live way out in the suburban fringe or you are downtown and it takes 1-2 hours to get out of town, or some trade-off along that spectrum. There's nothing equivalent to living in the SGR area and driving out to wilderness in 15-20 mins, or for that matter buying a decent Peninsula house on a middle class salary.

Last edited by someone123; Jul 9, 2020 at 9:23 PM.
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  #48  
Old Posted Aug 2, 2020, 11:29 PM
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The East Hants census division will be added to the Halifax CMA for the 2021 census since so many residents of that area are commuters. East Hants had a population of 22,453. So the Halifax-East Hants area with these new borders would have had roughly 463,000 a year ago. I expect Halifax will hit 500,000 in less than 5 years.
Just to give me something to do, and this is speculation. Taking the confirmed 2019 HRM population, and assuming same rate of growth, which we don't really know due to covid for 2020 and 2021, when the east hants corridor will likely be added. Since Mt uniacke is along the 101 and is close to Halifax, I added their last confirmed population as well.

HRM = 440,350 (grew by ~9,500 from 2018 > apply growth rate for 2020-21)
Hants corridor & mt Uniacke = ~27,500 in 2019

Tallied up the potential population could be in the ballpark of 486,850 people for 2021, which would be impressive to say the least
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  #49  
Old Posted Aug 3, 2020, 1:33 AM
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Also Lantz has two very large developments in the works which will increase the population of that area further.
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  #50  
Old Posted Aug 3, 2020, 11:06 AM
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Those areas outside HRM political boundaries will continue to grow as citizens seek to flee the tax-and-spend policies of Council and their "progressive" policies.
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  #51  
Old Posted Aug 3, 2020, 1:18 PM
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Originally Posted by TheNovaScotian View Post

I know a broad range of new Canadians and they eat at the same expensive restaurants I do. I've heard multiple times from multiple people that they wished there was more to do here. They expect transit options and venues to be available to them like stadiums, arenas and performing stages, so I can't say I agree with your statement, we just think that way because it makes it easier to say no to making investments in those areas.
Counterpoint: Name another CMA under a million people that has as much to offer in terms of outdoors amenities, performing-arts options, nightlife/culinary choices, etc., as Halifax. Victoria and Quebec City are comparable, and that's about it. Maybe Hamilton thanks to proximity to Toronto. For that matter, as mediocre as the city's public transit is, it's still better than virtually any city in its size class.

And given that smaller CMAs have been for years among the country's fastest growing, I'm not sure that we're really handicapped by lack of choices.

Having said that, it's pretty certain that 2020 will represent a trough in growth from coast to coast. We'll see whether pent-up demand makes up for it by rebounding extra-strong next year. Even if not, taking a year off from robust growth might not be a bad thing. The housing and infrastructure pressures the city faces have been multiplying, and some time to play catch-up wouldn't be the worst thing.
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  #52  
Old Posted Aug 3, 2020, 4:49 PM
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Having said that, it's pretty certain that 2020 will represent a trough in growth from coast to coast. We'll see whether pent-up demand makes up for it by rebounding extra-strong next year. Even if not, taking a year off from robust growth might not be a bad thing. The housing and infrastructure pressures the city faces have been multiplying, and some time to play catch-up wouldn't be the worst thing.
I remember an article from a few weeks back about MORE companies deciding to move to Halifax in 2020 after the pandemic hit than during the same period last year.

The big trends favouring Halifax are not really going to be hurt by covid and if anything might be moved along faster:

- More remote work that can be moved anywhere, with a preference for similar time zones.
- Dysfunction in large cities, mostly due to a comparative lack of infrastructure development in North America
- More provincial control over immigration levels, and a high desire for immigration to Canada
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  #53  
Old Posted Aug 3, 2020, 6:37 PM
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Originally Posted by someone123 View Post
The East Hants census division will be added to the Halifax CMA for the 2021 census since so many residents of that area are commuters. East Hants had a population of 22,453. So the Halifax-East Hants area with these new borders would have had roughly 463,000 a year ago. I expect Halifax will hit 500,000 in less than 5 years.
I've been meaning to ask is there a source for this claim? It makes absolute sense to me. But It's always nice to verify stuff like this
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  #54  
Old Posted Aug 3, 2020, 7:09 PM
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I've been meaning to ask is there a source for this claim? It makes absolute sense to me. But It's always nice to verify stuff like this
I don't remember the link but it is from Statistics Canada. It would have come from a page that is about something like adding new census divisions (CDs) to census metropolitan areas (CMAs).

There is also commuting data on the Statistics Canada website.
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  #55  
Old Posted Aug 3, 2020, 11:30 PM
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I don't remember the link but it is from Statistics Canada. It would have come from a page that is about something like adding new census divisions (CDs) to census metropolitan areas (CMAs).

There is also commuting data on the Statistics Canada website.
Thanks for narrowing down my search, I believe I found the smoking gun on table 12 for this link.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...wQumrxiMTnu924
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  #56  
Old Posted Aug 6, 2020, 1:11 PM
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Halifax also has an advantage as far as access to nature and small town type daytrips compared to big metro areas where you either live way out in the suburban fringe or you are downtown and it takes 1-2 hours to get out of town, or some trade-off along that spectrum. There's nothing equivalent to living in the SGR area and driving out to wilderness in 15-20 mins, or for that matter buying a decent Peninsula house on a middle class salary.
Bingo! I often hear this from out of town visitors from larger cities. It hits a chord as it is one of the things I appreciate about living here as well. Not to mention the ocean beaches that are easily accessible within a half hour drive.
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  #57  
Old Posted Aug 7, 2020, 11:20 AM
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There's nothing equivalent to living in the SGR area and driving out to wilderness in 15-20 mins, or for that matter buying a decent Peninsula house on a middle class salary.
Just wondering what a middle-class salary is. I agree with everything else, but right now the peninsula seems solidly $300K + except for condos. On 2 middle class salaries, more likely.
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  #58  
Old Posted Aug 7, 2020, 11:36 AM
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Bingo! I often hear this from out of town visitors from larger cities. It hits a chord as it is one of the things I appreciate about living here as well. Not to mention the ocean beaches that are easily accessible within a half hour drive.
This is a huuuuuge benefit of living in Halifax. I think there needs to be a continuous effort to make sure the city and province continuously invest in our outdoor spaces. Halifax’s population is growing, and more people are taking advantage of this perk, which are both wonderful things. However, if we remain stationary in terms of investment in outdoor spaces they will become overused. The city seems to be doing a good job in terms of things like Blue Mountain Birch Cove and the Purcell’s Cove Backlands, but I fear the Province is really dropping the ball on their end of things. A lot of the beach infrastructure is under-maintained, and there doesn’t seem to be much effort to open up new areas for exploration to reduce the pressure on existing ones.
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  #59  
Old Posted Aug 7, 2020, 12:42 PM
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Just wondering what a middle-class salary is. I agree with everything else, but right now the peninsula seems solidly $300K + except for condos. On 2 middle class salaries, more likely.
I do think we're seeing a situation in Halifax where the markets for both renters and buyers is rapidly getting pricier, and our affordability advantage vis-a-vis other cities has declined. I actually have friends who moved here from Ontario a few years ago, thinking they would save up to buy a house. In the intervening years, the market has gotten not necessarily that much pricier, but somewhat pricier and way more competitive. Listings only tell part of the story; they've gotten into bidding wars they can't possibly win, and the result is that they've soured on the possibility of owning an affordable place here. They're moving back to Ontario soon, and the attitude is like, "screw it, we'll rent in Ottawa."

I have other acquaintances who would prefer to live in the city, but are seriously looking at buying out around Musquodoboit.

So our deteriorating affordability is a genuine problem.

Having said that, 300k, or even 400-500k, for a city-centre detached house is not at all expensive when placed alongside most Canadian metros.
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  #60  
Old Posted Aug 7, 2020, 1:06 PM
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I do think we're seeing a situation in Halifax where the markets for both renters and buyers is rapidly getting pricier, and our affordability advantage vis-a-vis other cities has declined. I actually have friends who moved here from Ontario a few years ago, thinking they would save up to buy a house. In the intervening years, the market has gotten not necessarily that much pricier, but somewhat pricier and way more competitive. Listings only tell part of the story; they've gotten into bidding wars they can't possibly win, and the result is that they've soured on the possibility of owning an affordable place here. They're moving back to Ontario soon, and the attitude is like, "screw it, we'll rent in Ottawa."

I have other acquaintances who would prefer to live in the city, but are seriously looking at buying out around Musquodoboit.

So our deteriorating affordability is a genuine problem.

Having said that, 300k, or even 400-500k, for a city-centre detached house is not at all expensive when placed alongside most Canadian metros.
I feel this better displays central Canada ignorance towards our local problems and challenges, all they hear about is us having cool accents and being nice with cheap housing for summer getaways. They view us as their backwater colony playground rather than a region that needs to be better integrated with Quebec and Ontario.
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