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  #1  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2010, 6:25 AM
halifaxboyns halifaxboyns is offline
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Halifax Population Projections

Since I was looking at the Halifax MPS (for the Former City); I decided to have a boo through the Regional Plan; especially after the recent news that the population has passed 400,000.

Now; when the plan was being written (2001); the population of HRM was 359090.

Here is what the population growth scenarios looked like; with low, average and high growth and end population numbers in 2026:

Base Population (2001) 359,090 + Low growth population (over 25 years) 52,000 = 411,090 by 2026. So obviously - Halifax isn't seeing low growth.

Base Population (2001) 359,090 + Average growth population (over 25 years) 84,000 = 443,090 by 2026. Possible that this could work; but unlikely considering HRM is at 400,000 now (with 9 years of growth being 40,910; if that level remains constant by 2019 the population would be 440,910 with 7 more years to go on the plan).

Base Population (2001) 359,090 + High Growth population (over 25 years) of 125,000 = 484,090 by 2026.

Now I did some population forcasting based on an average of 1.5 to 2.0 percent increase and by 2026 I came out with just over 510,000 - but that assumes that you have two to three years that growth remains the same (1.5; 1.5 and 1.5 and then 1.6 growth).

I did some number crunching and based on the average growth scenario; it looks like the population by 2026 would be around 450,000 - which is slightly higher than average growth, but less than high. Still pretty impressive.

Not sure whether there was a thread on this; I looked and didn't see anything. Please move if need be!
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  #2  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2010, 6:39 AM
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450,000 by 2026 sounds like a believable number to me. That's what my guess would be anyway... 440,000 - 460,000 people by 2026.

It's great Halifax has passed 400,000 population. Now the half-a-million mark is the next hurdle. Although alot of work needs to be done to get the city up to par to support that population.

Things like this don't help either: Halifax Violence on the rise
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  #3  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2010, 10:58 AM
fenwick16 fenwick16 is offline
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Originally Posted by halifaxboyns View Post
Since I was looking at the Halifax MPS (for the Former City); I decided to have a boo through the Regional Plan; especially after the recent news that the population has passed 400,000.

Now; when the plan was being written (2001); the population of HRM was 359090.

Here is what the population growth scenarios looked like; with low, average and high growth and end population numbers in 2026:

Base Population (2001) 359,090 + Low growth population (over 25 years) 52,000 = 411,090 by 2026. So obviously - Halifax isn't seeing low growth.

Base Population (2001) 359,090 + Average growth population (over 25 years) 84,000 = 443,090 by 2026. Possible that this could work; but unlikely considering HRM is at 400,000 now (with 9 years of growth being 40,910; if that level remains constant by 2019 the population would be 440,910 with 7 more years to go on the plan).

Base Population (2001) 359,090 + High Growth population (over 25 years) of 125,000 = 484,090 by 2026.

Now I did some population forcasting based on an average of 1.5 to 2.0 percent increase and by 2026 I came out with just over 510,000 - but that assumes that you have two to three years that growth remains the same (1.5; 1.5 and 1.5 and then 1.6 growth).

I did some number crunching and based on the average growth scenario; it looks like the population by 2026 would be around 450,000 - which is slightly higher than average growth, but less than high. Still pretty impressive.

Not sure whether there was a thread on this; I looked and didn't see anything. Please move if need be!
The number of 359,000 in 2001 is based on the census and doesn't include the undercount. Post census estimates on the other hand do include a factor for the undercount; this factor varies by city and takes into account the fact that the census is unable to record everybody (some people don't complete the census, are temporarily out of the province, etc.). So the post census estimates are a better indication of the true population. If you compare a census population number with a post census estimate then you will get a high number for the population growth (because one doesn't include a factor for the undercount and whereas the other does). Halifax's population has been growing at about 1.3% annually for the past few years. If this rate continues, then the population would be about 485,000 in 15 years (400,000 times 1.013^15 to the power of 15). This is a good steady growth.

Sometimes it is difficult to make comparisons since some forecasts are based on the unadjusted census numbers, instead of numbers adjusted for the undercount.

(source: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/cgi-bin/imd...db&adm=8&dis=2 )
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Postcensal estimates are obtained by the component method, using the most recent census of population (record no. 3901) adjusted to July 1 and for net census undercount as the base population. For example, to estimate the population as of July 1 of a non-census year, demographic events experienced by each cohort since the previous census have to be taken into account. To the base population count, births, immigrants, net non-permanent residents and returning emigrants are added, and deaths, emigrants and net temporary emigrants are subtracted. It is also necessary to add the net interprovincial migration. This produces a postcensal estimate of total population as July 1 of the non-census year considered. The components of population change are estimated on the basis of data gleaned from various sources.
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  #4  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2010, 11:02 AM
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Immigration is trending upward. It is not inconceivable to think of it going up to a steady 4,000 to 5,000 a year (normal for many other Canadian cities), which would significantly change the outlook.

My estimate would be in the 450,000-500,000 range.
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  #5  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2010, 12:25 PM
JustinMacD JustinMacD is offline
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Immigration is trending upward. It is not inconceivable to think of it going up to a steady 4,000 to 5,000 a year (normal for many other Canadian cities), which would significantly change the outlook.

My estimate would be in the 450,000-500,000 range.
SMU and DAL both have really increased their recruiting of overseas students (India and China especially). I know at least 15-20 Chinese people that are planning on staying after uni. A lot can be said for the laid back way of life here, the cleaner air, more safety, etc. Years ago, many would just come over, get their degree, and go back home afterwards.

SMU's Chinese enrolment has increased massively just over the past 2-3 years. It's great to see.
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  #6  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2010, 1:39 PM
fenwick16 fenwick16 is offline
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Originally Posted by JustinMacD View Post
SMU and DAL both have really increased their recruiting of overseas students (India and China especially). I know at least 15-20 Chinese people that are planning on staying after uni. A lot can be said for the laid back way of life here, the cleaner air, more safety, etc. Years ago, many would just come over, get their degree, and go back home afterwards.

SMU's Chinese enrolment has increased massively just over the past 2-3 years. It's great to see.
Definitely. Chinese immigration and money has fueled the growth in Vancouver and to a lesser degree in Toronto. This would be a great way to increase immigration levels in Nova Scotia.

I hope Nova Scotians will be open-minded to immigration. Immigration from India would also benefit Halifax since India is closer and immigrants will want to be able to visit home on a regular basis. Having directly flights to London makes Halifax more attractive to overseas immigration. I think that if Nova Scotia welcomes Asian and Indian immigrants then it will become an attractive location since it is close by plane to major population centers such as New York, Boston, London, UK, Toronto, etc.

Last edited by fenwick16; Jul 22, 2010 at 3:35 PM.
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  #7  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2010, 5:31 PM
halifaxboyns halifaxboyns is offline
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Originally Posted by fenwick16 View Post
Definitely. Chinese immigration and money has fueled the growth in Vancouver and to a lesser degree in Toronto. This would be a great way to increase immigration levels in Nova Scotia.

I hope Nova Scotians will be open-minded to immigration. Immigration from India would also benefit Halifax since India is closer and immigrants will want to be able to visit home on a regular basis. Having directly flights to London makes Halifax more attractive to overseas immigration. I think that if Nova Scotia welcomes Asian and Indian immigrants then it will become an attractive location since it is close by plane to major population centers such as New York, Boston, London, UK, Toronto, etc.
I believe Nova Scotia will be open to immigration; it will have no choice if it wants the jobs filled. As such; if we see large groups coming (as I hope they will) then its my hope that we start seeing ethnic villages established; that I think could be fun.

Plus; with immigration - it will support more flights at the airport if the right mix come to Halifax. So if you have a lot of people moving from all over Europe for example (and the right economic climate is created); I suspect you will see more airlines like Air France, British Airways, KLM etc. look at coming to Halifax. More flights mean more options. The same could be true if more immigrants come from India - could one day be a direct flight from Halifax to Bombay! Although even if there was a massive chineese population in Halifax; I doubt anyone would setup a route from Halifax to say Beijing or Hong Kong or Tokyo. Easier to funnel them through Toronto where the route is already established; but it may support a second daily from YYZ for those cities.
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  #8  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2010, 4:46 PM
JustinMacD JustinMacD is offline
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Just read there on the Herald's website that they expect a big labour shortage for skilled construction workers over the next decade or so. Great news for Halifax. Brings the boys back home from Fort McMurray.
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  #9  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2010, 5:36 PM
halifaxboyns halifaxboyns is offline
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Just read there on the Herald's website that they expect a big labour shortage for skilled construction workers over the next decade or so. Great news for Halifax. Brings the boys back home from Fort McMurray.
That's been predicted for a long time and not just for Nova Scotia; but for all of North America.

So if HRM wants to attract these people back; they had better start thinking about how to make HRM attractive because while some people (like me) would be willing to come home and take the pay loss; many won't.

So they need to think about things like pay, benefits, perks (like compressed work weeks), vacation, etc. Not just the construction industry; but all industries, especially government. Government in Alberta (cities in particular) struggled during the boom to attract and keep people; when oil payed way more. If oil industries move into Halifax; they will set the trend for pay, benefits and perks.

One example with Calgary was the compressed work week schedule. Most employers in Calgary offer you the chance to do compressed work weeks (longer working days, but a day off in a two week cycle; either a Monday or Friday). This has its benefits - there is a lot less traffic on Monday and Fridays; since so many employers offer it and it helps maintain work life balance. The city had no choice but to offer it; because they were loosing staff for pay and benefits of compressed work weeks. I suspect HRM and the province will need to look at the level they pay workers and the perks of the jobs if oil comes to town, because they will scoop up people in bus loads.

Let me just say; I love having a day off every two weeks and fortunately for me; mine falls next week with a holiday on the Monday. So 4 day weekend - cha ching!

Last edited by halifaxboyns; Jul 22, 2010 at 5:52 PM.
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  #10  
Old Posted Jul 24, 2010, 2:43 PM
Halifax Hillbilly Halifax Hillbilly is offline
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One huge thing that makes it difficult to compare Halifax's population and growth rate to other Canadian cities is the inability to get an idea of what the metropolitan population of HRM is. Statscan uses the political entity of HRM as the census metropolitan area, which is obviously problematic since it's hard to consider the rural, eastern portions as part of metro.

I suppose one could put together the census tracts that would make up a more realistic metropolitan Halifax from Statscan info, but I assume that would be a lot of work and I'm not even sure that info would be available online for free.

Does anyone have a reliable number for urban/suburban numbers for Halifax?
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  #11  
Old Posted Jul 24, 2010, 9:54 PM
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The Eastern Shore has such a small population that in practice it doesn't make a whole lot of difference. The one eastern district of 20,000 or so has on the order of 1/3 of the land area of the HRM. Realistically, you could also include some areas to the north and west that are excluded so I don't think that the metro population numbers are particularly inflated given what they are supposed to represent.

Something else to keep in mind is that the other CMAs are similar, unless they are surrounded by other municipalities. The Saskatoon CMA covers over 5,000 square kilometres. Edmonton covers over 9,000 square kilometres. Toronto is almost 6,000 square kilometres.

There are also "urban area" statistics available. They exclude more semi-rural areas but have their own limitations. Fall River would not be considered a part of the Halifax urban area, for example, but there is little doubt that it is a true suburb.
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  #12  
Old Posted Jul 25, 2010, 2:01 AM
fenwick16 fenwick16 is offline
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I think that places like Chester and Windsor would be more connected to the Halifax area than the north eastern rural areas. So the Metro could be extended to the north and south and ignore the north eastern areas of Halifax county.

The definition of a Metro area is very subjective, so using the HRM population is basically a benchmark to compare the population growth on.
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  #13  
Old Posted Aug 4, 2010, 5:23 AM
dennis1 dennis1 is offline
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What about 500,000 by 2025 and 575,000 by 2031?

Last edited by dennis1; Aug 4, 2010 at 5:51 AM.
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  #14  
Old Posted Aug 4, 2010, 5:30 AM
fenwick16 fenwick16 is offline
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What about 500,000 by 2025 and 575, by 2031?
500,000 by 2025 is possible. That would be 1.5% annual growth per year for 15 years (compounded annually). Currently the population is growing at about 1.3% so that isn't far-fetched.
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  #15  
Old Posted Aug 4, 2010, 5:50 AM
dennis1 dennis1 is offline
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This is just Halifax/Bedord/Dartmouth Correct? So based on 500,000 for that we could hav 525,000 for the whole area? 575,000 for Halifax/Beford/Dartmouth could be 600,00 for the whole area.
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  #16  
Old Posted Aug 4, 2010, 10:23 AM
fenwick16 fenwick16 is offline
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This is just Halifax/Bedord/Dartmouth Correct? So based on 500,000 for that we could hav 525,000 for the whole area? 575,000 for Halifax/Beford/Dartmouth could be 600,00 for the whole area.
The 400,000 number is for the entire county.

PS: However, this is all arbitrary since you could get around 500,000 (or more) by redrawing the same land area and by dropping the northeastern rural areas of Halifax county and by including parts of Kings, Hants and Lunenburg counties. This is a better indication of the metropolitan area since this is how many people could get to Halifax in an hour or less for sports events, concerts and shopping.

Last edited by fenwick16; Aug 4, 2010 at 2:19 PM.
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  #17  
Old Posted Aug 4, 2010, 6:12 PM
terrynorthend terrynorthend is offline
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Originally Posted by fenwick16 View Post
The 400,000 number is for the entire county.

PS: However, this is all arbitrary since you could get around 500,000 (or more) by redrawing the same land area and by dropping the northeastern rural areas of Halifax county and by including parts of Kings, Hants and Lunenburg counties. This is a better indication of the metropolitan area since this is how many people could get to Halifax in an hour or less for sports events, concerts and shopping.
Agreed. One should look at the commuter-shed of the region when assessing the effective metro population. I know of many who travel daily for work from Truro, Bridgewater, even as far as Kingston in the Valley.
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  #18  
Old Posted Jan 27, 2011, 2:28 PM
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Has HRM announced what the estimated 2010 population was?
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  #19  
Old Posted Jan 27, 2011, 2:57 PM
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Has HRM announced what the estimated 2010 population was?
Not as of yet but if I were to guess given the growth rates were probably around 405,000.
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  #20  
Old Posted Jan 27, 2011, 3:03 PM
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Not as of yet but if I were to guess given the growth rates were probably around 405,000.
That seems like a lot of growth in 1 year. That's on par with St. John's growth though so it would make sense.
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