Manitoba Hydro

[bodaggin]

Didn't see a thread. So here we go.

What an utter mess of an organization. $25B in debt. Mismanaged Keeyask. Mismanaged Bi-Pole. And in an era of rapid global electrification what's their mandate? Gotta keep those rates low.

Alberta has oil, Manitoba has Hydro. If you want to dig MB out of "Have-Not" status, Hydro how you do it.

Hydro should be expanding and exporting like crazy. Our 2 neighbors have some of the highest electric prices in Canada and are struggling to decarbonize.

Sask: 15c/kwh
Alberta: Pushing 30c/kwh

Start cashing in and pay off the debt. MB Hydro should be subsidizing the provincial government like Norway Crown Corps do. Not barely scraping by.

[bodaggin]

And here's another thing MB Hydro is sleeping on: Pumped Hydro

Manitoba has the second largest set of natural water batteries in North America for pumped hydro. Cedar Lake + Lake Manitoba. Cedar Lake already has the Grand Rapids a dam on it.

Converting it to Pumped Hydro Storage is much easier than building fresh.

In an era where renewable production (Solar + Wind) has unreliable peaks and valleys, pumped hydro is the cheapest and largest capacity method of baseload electricity storage.

We can literally store everyone's excess Solar + Wind, and sell it back to them in the low times at a profit. More money.

This organization is utterly asleep.

[pspeid]

I never heard of pumped hydro before this, but it looks like the technique has been around for a while. Thanks for referencing it.

I'm not in on the inner workings of Manitoba Hydro, so my opinions are just based on the trickle of info I see in the news (in other words, probably quite ignorant).

However, a couple of thoughts. From my understanding, Manitoba governments of all political stripes have, at time, added Hydro revenue to provincial revenues, so i don't think that's entirely new.

I agree that MB Hydro needs to grow it's capacity and i think they know it too. I think the new generators at the Pointe du Bois dam might increase output somewhat. Adding wind and solar and exploring possibilities liked pumped hydro should be looked at.

It will be interesting to see the direction the new head of Hydro takes whenever they are appointed. Personally I didn't much like the slow privatization/death of a thousand cuts approach to the public utility the PC's took with Hydro. I couldn't see how Manitoba Hydro could be an economic driver for the province when it's forced to pay out to private operators for it's energy. It was the classic short term economic gain exchanged for long term pain.

[FactaNV]

All renewables and green techs need to be explored by Hydro. The problem with dams is they are overrun monsters and in today's climate, I don't think another will ever get built between money and indigenous consultation requirements.

We need more wind, maybe some solar in the south and some geothermal. Also, I really think it's time for some new nuclear in Manitoba. They're expensive but they're reliable as hell and greener than solar in the grand scheme of things. A couple plants strategically placed could tie into existing transmission lines.

[rivercity]

personally i think hydro should explore nuclear. potential for repositories of waste in the canadian shield to the east of us, short of flooding, minimal natural disasters, plenty of water around for cooling. would be the provinces biggest mega project.. but hearing about ON retrofitting and updating the pickering plant, it sure would be a reliable source. then we export excess hydro electricity as we already do and are less reliant on hydro for drought impacts. price wise im sure its a non starter

[bodaggin]

Nuclear has the most expensive LCOE (Levelized Cost Of Electricity) of all sources and is the slowest to deploy.

If the goal is to accelerate MB Hydro bankruptcy, definitely go nuclear.

There's a few places globally that nuclear makes sense. But very few. Stay away.

[bodaggin]

Here's the energy mix and price of our nearest neighbors. IE: Our target customers. (Yes I know MB Hydro does SOME export, but it should be 10x higher).

Here's the reality: Coal will convert to Wind. It's the cheapest LCOE, fastest to deploy and most reliable. But wind needs "Baseload". To supply when the wind isn't blowing.

That's where MB Hydro comes in with pumped hydro storage. We store our neighbor's excess peak wind generation, and sell it back at a profit when their wind isn't blowing.

There's no other utility energy storage system on the planet that can compete with pumped-hydro. Not batteries, or any other energy snake-oil. Anyone can build wind generation. But no one can store it. Only us (and the Great Lakes).

Manitoba is sitting on a monopolized gold mine, and doesn't even realize it.

[FactaNV]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Here's the energy mix and price of our nearest neighbors. IE: Our target customers. (Yes I know MB Hydro does SOME export, but it should be 10x higher).

Here's the reality: Coal will convert to Wind. It's the cheapest LCOE, fastest to deploy and most reliable. But wind needs "Baseload". To supply when the wind isn't blowing.

That's where MB Hydro comes in with pumped hydro storage. We store our neighbor's excess peak wind generation, and sell it back at a profit when their wind isn't blowing.

There's no other utility energy storage system on the planet that can compete with pumped-hydro. Not batteries, or any other energy snake-oil. Anyone can build wind generation. But no one can store it. Only us (and the Great Lakes).

Manitoba is sitting on a monopolized gold mine, and doesn't even realize it.

Seems like an interesting idea, re: pumped hydro. My main concern is that according to the article I was reading, it needs hilly terrain. Would it be feasible here without the grade changes typically associated with the sites? The few pictures I saw look almost mountainous.

[drew]

Hydro's reservoir is Lake Winnipeg. I don't know the feasibility of using it for "pumped" storage. That lake and it's various water sheds have enough problems as it is.

MB is going to be short on electricity for it's own uses, let alone export - given population growth and the growing electrification of vehicles and heating.

Also generation capacity is at it's lowest when demand is at it's highest (i.e. winter).

[Sasquatch]

All state-owned, centrally planned systems eventually fail due to the fact that investment decisions are often driven by political considerations instead of solely by consumer demand.

Manitoba Hydro is no different. It's now technically insolvent so the financial means for further expansion of electricity exports simply isn't there.

The solution is to end the legal monopoly, at least as far as exports go, and let private investors serve that market. Taxpayers already have an unsustainable burden; nothing will be gained by adding to it.

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by FactaNV

My main concern is that according to the article I was reading, it needs hilly terrain. Would it be feasible here without the grade changes typically associated with the sites? The few pictures I saw look almost mountainous.

I should have explained Pumped-Hydro better. Sorry. Pic attached (just noticed the pic is backwards lol).

Pumped hydro is just reversible hydro. All hydro needs "hydraulic head". It's the gravity of water that generates power. So if we have dam already, it can be converted to pumped-hydro.

How it works:
During the day, excess wind/solar power is used to pump water from the lower reservoir to the higher one.

At night, that water is released to the lower reservoir, producing power while solar/wind is offline.

An open loop reservoir can function as both regular hydro (accepting inflow from a river) AND pumped-hydro at the same time.


The Grand Rapids Dam (Cedar Lake to Lake Winnipeg) is already chooching 500mw. It has a hydraulic head of 120feet.

To convert it, the dam reservoir doesn't change. In fact, it's possible that simply energizing the generator (IE reversing it) could convert. Or, pumps/reversible generators are swapped.

The current 500mw capacity is too small though. If you want to serve as a battery for a region this big, you need 5,000 to 10,000mw capacity or even more. You will get rapidly fluctuating lake levels. But if you want the billions, deal with it.

[FactaNV]

Originally Posted by Sasquatch

All state-owned, centrally planned systems eventually fail due to the fact that investment decisions are often driven by political considerations instead of solely by consumer demand.

Manitoba Hydro is no different. It's now technically insolvent so the financial means for further expansion of electricity exports simply isn't there.

The solution is to end the legal monopoly, at least as far as exports go, and let private investors serve that market. Taxpayers already have an unsustainable burden; nothing will be gained by adding to it.

Idk, crown corps work great in Scandinavia. Equinor is one of the biggest companies on Earth and extremely profitable for the Norwegian treasury. Perhaps allowing some investment into hydro is the way to strike that balancing act, just like Equinor. No more than 25% let's say is private investment. That or if they want to keep it Manitoban, allow Manitobans to buy shares in Hydro up to 25% of the value.

I dont think a privatized hydro is palatable to anyone except those who could benefit off it financially. I like my cheap power and have no interest in paying almost triple the price like they're doing in Alberta.

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by drew

MB is going to be short on electricity for it's own uses, let alone export - given population growth and the growing electrification of vehicles and heating.

Also generation capacity is at it's lowest when demand is at it's highest (i.e. winter).

Here's 2,500mw of wind energy potential right on Lake Manitoba.

Why Lake Manitoba?

-NO LAND ACQUISITION TIME OR COST.
-Shallow lake. Easy to construct on from barge or caisson.
-Reliable flat wind.
-Under 100km from Winnipeg (less distribution cost).
-Wind is the lowest LCOE and fastest to build.

I repeat 2,500mw. Almost a 50% increase from all current generation from this resource alone.

[drew]

^ My bad. You have it all figured out. It's just confusing that if these things were so easy - why don't they already exist? Maybe you should run for some sort of political office. And then we could be exporting electricity all around the centre of the continent, and have interchanges/bridges across all highway intersections.

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by FactaNV

Idk, crown corps work great in Scandinavia. Equinor is one of the biggest companies on Earth and extremely profitable for the Norwegian treasury.

Exactly. This is the point I'm making. If we're going to socialize our crown corps, then the people are the shareholders. Run them for max profit (via exports), for the social benefit of the shareholders. Don't just scrape them along.

Private will always be cheaper and more efficient. But we've got a crown corp, and a resource. Use the damn thing for max profit. Start running it like a business like the Scandinavians.

33% of Norway's government is funded by Crown Corps
4% of Manitoba's government is funded by Crown Corps

We're leaving SO much meat on the bone out of utter incompetence.

[bodaggin]

Economics on the 2,500mw Lake Manitoba Wind Project

Assumptions:
-Installed cost: $2 million per MW ($1m is common, but MB Hydro is dumb).
-Export price: $0.1/kwh or $100/mw
-Capacity Factor: 40%
-Maintenance: 15% of revenue
-Annual generation: 8,760,000mw (2500mw * 24hr * 365 days) * 40% capacity.
-Useful life 25yr.

Financials
-Installation: $5 billion
-Annual revenue: $876 million
-Annual profit: $745 million (after maintenance)

-Capitalization Rate: 15%
-Years to pay off: 6.7yrs (before debt servicing).
-Pure profit years: 18yrs
-Lifetime profit: $13,410 million
-Annualized post capex net profit to MB Gov: $536 million

Lets get building.

[FactaNV]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Economics on the 2,500mw Lake Manitoba Wind Project

Assumptions:
-Installed cost: $2 million per MW ($1m is common, but MB Hydro is dumb).
-Export price: $0.1/kwh or $100/mw
-Capacity Factor: 40%
-Maintenance: 15% of revenue
-Annual generation: 8,760,000mw (2500mw * 24hr * 365 days) * 40% capacity.
-Useful life 25yr.

Financials
-Installation: $5 billion
-Annual revenue: $876 million
-Annual profit: $745 million (after maintenance)

-Capitalization Rate: 15%
-Years to pay off: 6.7yrs (before debt servicing).
-Pure profit years: 18yrs
-Lifetime profit: $13,410 million
-Annualized post capex net profit to MB Gov: $536 million

Lets get building.

You speak with such certainty on offshore wind farms in the middle of a lake lol. And highways. And rail relocation lol.

[bomberjet]

Run for Premier, we need somebody with that vision!

[Stormer]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Economics on the 2,500mw Lake Manitoba Wind Project

Assumptions:
-Installed cost: $2 million per MW ($1m is common, but MB Hydro is dumb).
-Export price: $0.1/kwh or $100/mw
-Capacity Factor: 40%
-Maintenance: 15% of revenue
-Annual generation: 8,760,000mw (2500mw * 24hr * 365 days) * 40% capacity.
-Useful life 25yr.

Financials
-Installation: $5 billion
-Annual revenue: $876 million
-Annual profit: $745 million (after maintenance)

-Capitalization Rate: 15%
-Years to pay off: 6.7yrs (before debt servicing).
-Pure profit years: 18yrs
-Lifetime profit: $13,410 million
-Annualized post capex net profit to MB Gov: $536 million

Lets get building.

Interesting, but I am not so sure SaskPower, for example, would pay 10 cents per KWH for intermittent wind power. I realize they may pay more than that for some renewable generation in Saskatchewan, but those have an economic development component and I believe the newer projects can be cheaper. What importers really want is peaking power and perhaps baseload once they are forced to shutter coal. At some point wind and solar get maxed out unless there is a storage tech breakthrough and/or the grid is completely rebuilt.

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by Stormer

What importers really want is peaking power and perhaps baseload once they are forced to shutter coal. At some point wind and solar get maxed out unless there is a storage tech breakthrough and/or the grid is completely rebuilt.

That's exactly why getting our Water Battery up and running is so critical. You're right. That's ~100gw of capacity in our immediate vicinity that could blow out like a candle when the wind stops.

Pumped hydro is the storage tech. And MB is the only place aside from the Great Lakes that can store wind/solar to create baseload.

Monopoly + Demand = Highly Lucrative.

I'll run some numbers later. Need to think on it a bit.