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  #161  
Old Posted Nov 13, 2020, 2:00 PM
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Centropolis Centropolis is offline
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i think brazil is potentially a model of the united states 50 years from now, as the center of global wealth and power sort of very slowly dissipates from the u.s., and re-arranges in a balance of power mode. a lot of america isn’t going to adapt to this very well and it’s going to continue to be reflected politically.

i think trump was just a stinky hors d'oeuvre before the main course.
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  #162  
Old Posted Nov 13, 2020, 2:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Centropolis View Post
i think brazil is potentially a model of the united states 50 years from now, as the center of global wealth and power sort of very slowly dissipates from the u.s., and re-arranges in a balance of power mode. a lot of america isn’t going to adapt to this very well and it’s going to continue to be reflected politically.

i think trump was just a stinky hors d'oeuvre before the main course.
Brazil has zero potential the way I see it. If you were writing that by 2010, I could agree partially. Brazilian economy ended 2019 at 2012 levels. With the pandemic, it was pushed farther away back.

And now, to make matters even worse, the country elected a populist, far-right wing president, making the political scene to become much more unstable while social indicators keep falling as good jobs are becoming more rare while the otherwise good welfare state has been dismantled by a sectarian liberal view (Latin American/European "liberal") of the economy.

I believe the country will eventually moved back to the centre political wise, but I don't see any shortcuts for economic and job growth. And even if that happens eventually by the second half of the 2020's, Brazil will be too close to its demographic winter making recovery much slower.
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  #163  
Old Posted Nov 13, 2020, 2:58 PM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
Brazil has zero potential the way I see it. If you were writing that by 2010, I could agree partially. Brazilian economy ended 2019 at 2012 levels. With the pandemic, it was pushed farther away back.

And now, to make matters even worse, the country elected a populist, far-right wing president, making the political scene to become much more unstable while social indicators keep falling as good jobs are becoming more rare while the otherwise good welfare state has been dismantled by a sectarian liberal view (Latin American/European "liberal") of the economy.

I believe the country will eventually moved back to the centre political wise, but I don't see any shortcuts for economic and job growth. And even if that happens eventually by the second half of the 2020's, Brazil will be too close to its demographic winter making recovery much slower.
yeah. all of what you said is what i potentially foresee in the u.s.
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  #164  
Old Posted Nov 13, 2020, 3:12 PM
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Originally Posted by SIGSEGV View Post
Biden seems to have won every single county in Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Hawaii. Trump won every county in Oklahoma and West Virginia.

Biden won all but one county in Vermont and Delaware (Delaware only has 3 counties though...).

Biden also won all but two counties in NH and Connecticut. Trump won all but two counties in Nevada, Nebraska, North Dakota and Kentucky and all but three counties in Utah and Idaho. Of course in a state like Nevada, practically the whole state lives in Clark and Washoe counties so those two counties (or even just Clark) is enough to win the whole state.
Interesting because New Hampshire had the second thinnest margin of any state inn 2016. The thinnest margin was Michigan.
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  #165  
Old Posted Nov 13, 2020, 4:02 PM
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But my wife and I don't mind the idea of offloading some of the Golden Rule-type teachings to the Jesuits and our alma mater's CCD program.
go for it. i'm generally not in the business of telling others how to raise their kids (unless it's some truly out of bounds shit).

from my perspective, the bridge of trust has been so thoroughly set on fire that i have zero interest in ever crossing it again.

besides, i feel like my wife and i have a good enough handle on the practical, worthwhile aspects of small "c" christianity (love, compassion, inclusion, forgiveness, basically "don't be a fucking asshole") to teach it to our children ourselves without having that message convoluted by the hocus-pocus fairy tale stuff.




anyway, back on topic, CNN has finally officially called AZ for biden (only the 2nd time it's gone blue in the past 7 decades!), thanks in large part to its largest county, Maricopa, switching to the blue team this time, along with biden netting a higher percentage of votes than hillary did in the state's other big county, Pima.
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Nov 13, 2020 at 4:13 PM.
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  #166  
Old Posted Nov 13, 2020, 4:09 PM
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Right, but Latin America, for the most part, doesn't have idealized democratic norms, it has a constant struggle between left- and right-wing populism.

Mexico, right now, has a very popular left-wing populist, especially popular among "brown folks". Notice that Trump and Amlo have been very close, and Amlo is one of the few foreign leaders who hasn't yet congratulated Biden. And the right wing populists in Mexico, Cuba, Brazil, Venezuela, etc. are very popular among the "white folks" and middle-upper classes. It's less the political ideology than the cultural connection. Bolsanero is super popular among the (upper middle class, white, Southern Brazilian) relatives of our Brazilian friends.

I suspect that increased Trump support among working class Mexican Americans is very much tied to their strong support of Amlo, who is supposedly "for the people" (but really a corrupt wanna-be autocrat).

And the U.S. usually misreads all this by putting leaders in Left/Right buckets, when the Left/Right is irrelevant. They're just different sides of the same coin, which is why Leftist Amlo and Rightist Trump are close, while Rightist Pena Nieto was at war with Rightist Trump. Pena Nieto wasn't a populist, and is generally loathed by working class, dark-skinned Mexicans.
Very interesting, thank you for the insight, you too yuriandrade!
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  #167  
Old Posted Nov 13, 2020, 7:40 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
Interesting because New Hampshire had the second thinnest margin of any state inn 2016. The thinnest margin was Michigan.
There's a lot of 'Live Free or Die'ers' in NH along with granola cruncher Massholes. Vermont has less 'locals' left in comparison to transplants from other areas.
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  #168  
Old Posted Nov 13, 2020, 9:57 PM
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I think I've found the most impressive flip.

Biden won Johnson County, Kansas (KC suburbs), being the first Democrat to win Johnson County since

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  #169  
Old Posted Nov 13, 2020, 11:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Nassau will be Biden, and not particularly close.
and as expected, it just switched this afternoon.

a big vote dump came in for nassau county and now it's ever so slightly blue.


Nassau County:

biden - 49.6%

trump - 49.1%

est. 91% reporting



so that means trump only won 2 of the nation's 1M+ counties: suffolk county on eastern long island and collin county in metro dallas (and neither of those are likely to change at this point).
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  #170  
Old Posted Nov 14, 2020, 1:36 AM
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I am told that Bloomfield Hills, the wealthiest city in Michigan, voted Democratic for the first time.
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  #171  
Old Posted Nov 17, 2020, 1:48 AM
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The partisan streaks for each county ever over 500k:

Democratic since 1924 (Coolidge over Davis):
Bronx, NY
Kings, NY (Brooklyn)
New York, NY (Manhattan)
Ramsey, MN (St. Paul)
St. Louis City, MO
Suffolk, MA (Boston)

Democratic since 1928 (Hoover over Smith):
Wayne, MI (Detroit)

Democratic since 1932 (Hoover over FDR):
Philadelphia, PA (Yes, Philadelphia voted against FDR in the 1932 landslide.)

Republican since 1936 (FDR over Landon):
Tulsa, OK

Republican since 1940 (FDR over Willkie):
Knox, TN (470k)

Republican since 1944 (FDR over Dewey):
Lee, FL (Fort Myers)

Democratic since 1956 (Eisenhower over Stevenson):
Alameda, CA (Oakland)
Baltimore City, MD
Bristol, MA (New Bedford/Fall River)
Dane, WI (Madison)
Middlesex, MA
Milwaukee, WI
San Francisco, CA

Republican since 1956 (Stevenson over Eisenhower):
Greenville, SC

Democratic since 1960 (Nixon over Kennedy):
Multnomah, OR (Portland)

Republican since 1964 (Johnson over Goldwater):
Collin, TX
Denton, TX
El Paso, CO (Colorado Springs)
Kern, CA (Bakersfield)
Lancaster, PA (before that, last went Dem in 1856)
Oklahoma, OK
Sedgwick, KS (Wichita)
Utah, UT (Provo)

Republican since 1968 (Wallace over Nixon):
Montgomery, TX

Democratic since 1972 (Nixon over Mondale):
Allegheny, PA (Pittsburgh)
Cook, IL (Chicago)
Cuyahoga, OH (Cleveland)
Erie, NY (Buffalo)
Essex, NJ (Newark)
Fulton, GA (Atlanta)
Hennepin, MN (Minneapolis)
Hidalgo, TX (McAllen)
Jackson, MO (Kansas City) (before that, last went Republican in 1928)
Lake, IN (Gary)
(New) Orleans, LA
Prince George's, MD
Providence, RI
Queens, NY

Republican since 1976 (Carter over Ford):
Brevard, FL (Titusville)
Polk, FL (Lakeland)

Democratic since 1980 (Reagan over Carter):
Denver, CO

Democratic since 1984 (Reagan over Mondale):
Contra Costa, CA
DeKalb, GA
El Paso, TX
Essex, MA (Lynn)
Genesee, MI (Flint)
Hartford, CT
Honolulu, HI
Hudson, NJ
King, WA (Seattle)
Los Angeles, CA
Montgomery, MD
Norfolk, MA
Pierce, WA (Tacoma)
San Mateo, CA
Santa Clara, CA (San Jose)
Summit, OH (Akron)

Democratic since 1988 (Bush over Dukakis):
Baltimore County, MD
Bernalillo, NM (Albuquerque)
Broward, FL (Fort Lauderdale)
Bucks, PA
Camden, NJ
Clark, NV (Las Vegas)
Davidson, TN (Nashville)
Delaware, PA
Jefferson, KY (Louisville)
Miami-Dade, FL
Middlesex, NJ (New Brunswick)
Monroe, NY (Rochester)
Montgomery, PA
Nassau, NY
New Castle, DE (Wilmington)
New Haven, CT
Palm Beach, FL
Pima, AR (Tucson)
Plymouth, MA
Sacramento, CA
St. Louis County, MO
Shelby, TN (Memphis)
Snohomish, WA (Everett)
Union, NJ (Elizabeth)
Washington, OR
Westchester, NY
Worcester, MA

Democratic since 1992 (Bush over Clinton):
Bergen, NJ
Fairfield, CT
Franklin, OH (Columbus)
Passaic, NJ
Oakland, MI

Democratic since 1996 (Dole over Clinton):
Orange, FL (Orlando)

Republican since 1996 (Clinton over Dole):
Ocean, NJ
Spokane, WA

Democratic since 2000 (Bush over Gore):
Fairfax County, VA
Guilford, NC (Greensboro)
Marion, IN (Indianapolis)
Mecklenburg, NC (Charlotte)
Travis, TX (Austin)

Republican since 2000 (Gore over Bush):
Monmouth, NJ

Democratic since 2004 (Bush over Kerry):
Arapahoe, CO
Bexar, TX (San Antonio)
Dallas, TX
DuPage, IL
Fresno, CA
Hamilton, OH (Cincinnati)
Harris, TX (Houston)
Hillsborough, FL (Tampa)
Jefferson, AL (Birmingham)
Jefferson, CO
Kane, IL (Before that, last went Dem in 1856)
Lake, IL
Riverside, CA
San Bernardino, CA
San Diego, CA
San Joaquin, CA (Stockton)
Stanislaus, CA (Modesto)
Ventura, CA
Wake, NC (Raleigh)
Will, IL

Republican since 2012 (Obama over Romney), i.e. Obama-Trump counties:
Macomb, MI (before that, 2004 and then 1992)
Suffolk, NY (before that, 1992)

Democratic since 2012 (Romney over Obama), i.e. Romney-Clinton counties:
Anne Arundel, MD (Annapolis) (before that, 1964)
Chester, PA (before that, 2008 and then 1964)
Cobb, GA (before that, 1976)
Douglas, NE (Omaha) (before that, 2008 and then 1964)
Fort Bend, TX (before that, 1964)
Gwinnett, GA (before that, 1976)
Orange, CA (before that, 1936)
Salt Lake, UT (before that, 2008 and then 1964)

Democratic in 2020, last in 1916:
Johnson, KS (KC suburbs)

Democratic in 2020, last in 1948:
Maricopa, AZ (Phoenix)

Democratic in 2020, last in 1964:
Morris, NJ (Parsippany) (before 1964, last blue in 1912)
Tarrant, TX (Fort Worth)

Democratic in 2020, last in 1976:
Duval, FL (Jacksonville)
Williamson, TX

Democratic in 2020, last in 2008:
Kent, MI (Grand Rapids)

Democratic in 2020, last in 2012:
Montgomery, OH (Dayton)
Pinellas, FL (St. Petersburg)
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