The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[JHikka]

I was mistaken! Census Division/Economic Region numbers are also out today. A month earlier than usual.

Census Division 2019/2020 Change
Westmorland ....164,065 (+2,812) (1.7%)
York ................107,917 (+1,076) (1.0%)
Gloucester .........78,810 (-206) (-0.3%)
Saint John .........77,921 (+430) (0.6%)
Kings ................71,032 (+347) (0.5%)
Northumberland .45,386 (-60) (-0.1%)
Madawaska ........33,076 (-119) (-0.4%)
Kent ..................31,658 (+199) (0.6%)
Restigouche ........30,810 (-130) (-0.4%)
Albert ................30,359 (+273) (0.9%)
Sunbury .............28,919 (+6) (0.0%)
Carleton ............26,766 (-4) (0.0%)
Charlotte ...........26,032 (+50) (0.2%)
Victoria .............18,462 (-27) (-0.1%)
Queens .............10,263 (-39) (-0.4%)

Economic Region 2019/2020 Change
Halifax ....................................448,518 (+9,008) (2.0%)
Avalon Peninsula ......................276,883 (+169) (0.1%)
Moncton-Richibucto ..................226,082 (+3,284) (1.5%)
Saint John-St.Stephen ..............174,985 (+827) (0.5%)
Prince Edward Island ................159,625 (+2,363) (1.5%)
Campbellton-Miramichi .............155,006 (-396) (-0.3%)
North Shore ............................153,791 (+427) (0.3%)
Fredericton-Oromocto ...............147,099 (+1,043) (0.7%)
Cape Breton ............................134,091 (-429) (-0.3%)
Annapolis Valley ......................128,109 (+429) (0.3%)
Southern ................................114,842 (+169) (0.1%)
Notre Dame-Central Bonavista ..106,298 (-677) (-0.6%)
West Coast-Northern Peninsula ..76,942 (-481) (-0.6%)*
Edmundston-Woodstock ............78,034 (-150) (-0.2%)
South Coast-Burin Peninsula .......34,306 (-384) (-1.1%)
Labrador ...................................27,674 (-4) (0.0%)*

*For the sake of this post I have separated Labrador from WC-NP

[MonctonRad]

Growth since 2016 - Atlantic Canadian CMAs

Halifax NS - 414,015 (2016), 448,544 (2020) +34,529 (+8.3%)
St. John's NL - 211,003 (2016), 214,014 (2020) +3,011 (+1.4%)
Moncton NB - 148,467 (2016), 158,695 (2020) +10,228 (+6.9%)
Saint John NB - 128,926 (2016), 131,772 (2020) +2,846 (+2.2%)

Largest CAs thrown in too (note that Fredericton is a new CMA)

Fredericton NB - 104,387 (2016), 111,024 (2020) +6,637 (+6.4%)
Sydney (CBRM) NS - 100,359 (2016), 100,711 (2020) +352 (+0.3%)
Charlottetown PE - 71,533 (2016), 80,347 (2020) +8,814 (+12.3%)

Absolute Growth 2016-2020

1) Halifax +34,529
2) Moncton +10,228
3) Charlottetown +8,814
4) Fredericton +6,637
5) St. John's +3,011
6) Saint John +2,846
7) Sydney +352

Percentage Growth Rate 2016-2020

1) Charlottetown +12.3%
2) Halifax +8.3%
3) Moncton +6.9%
4) Fredericton +6.4%
5) Saint John +2.2%
6) St. John's +1.4%
7) Sydney +0.3%

[Taeolas]

When does Freddy officially become a CMA? I assume sometime after the 2021 census?

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

When does Freddy officially become a CMA? I assume sometime after the 2021 census?

It actually already is. It was promoted last year. The first census where it will be listed as a CMA however will be the 2021 census. Even after this though, it will take about five years for it to be fully included in the StatsCan database because they will have to build up a comparison database for comparative analysis (for things like growth rate etc).

[Beaubassin]

Census Subdivisions estimates were also released.

CSD change 2019-2020

Halifax RGM - 448,231 (+2.0%)
St. John's CY - 111,663 (-0.1%)
Cape Breton RGM - 95,901 (-0.3%)
Moncton C - 79,508 (+2.0%)
Saint John C - 71,364 (+0.6%)
Fredericton C - 64,180 (+1.2%)
Charlottetown CY - 41,881 (+2.4%)
Dieppe C - 28,556 (+2.6%)
Conception Bay South T - 27,421 (+0.8%)
Lunenburg MD - 25,644 (+0.7%)
East Hants MD - 23,225 (+0.9%)
Mount Pearl CY - 23,030 (-0.3%)
Paradise T - 22,992 (+1.3%)
Kings, Subd. A SC - 22,965 (-0.5%)
Riverview TV - 20,538 (+1.3%)
Colchester, Subd. B SC - 19,689 (+0.2%)
Corner Brook CY - 19,455 (-0.6%)
Quispamsis TV - 19,041 (+0.5%)
Miramichi C - 17,787 (+0.1%)
Edmundston C - 16,841 (-0.1%)


Source:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...021001-eng.htm

[MonctonRad]

Thanks. This allows us to calculate the greater Moncton POPCTR population.

POPCTR stands for the contiguously built up urban area, and is probably the best reflection of the true size of an urban community. A CMA is defined by commuting patterns, and the CMA boundary thus extends beyond the limits of a city's conurbation. Sometimes municipal boundaries can be a confounding variable when it comes to CMA populations too. For example, the Halifax Regional Municipality includes all of the (former) Halifax County, which extends all the way up the eastern shore to Guysborough County, well beyond any commutershed. Nevertheles, all of HRM is included in the Halifax CMA because of the limits of the municipal boundaries.

Moncton - 79,508
Dieppe - 28,556
Riverview - 20,538

Since all three communities have tightly defined contiguous and non-discontinuous urban boundaries, this makes the greater Moncton POPCTR population 128,602. The remaining 30,000 people in the Moncton CMA live outside the well defined urban boundary.

[Freddypop]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

It actually already is. It was promoted last year. The first census where it will be listed as a CMA however will be the 2021 census. Even after this though, it will take about five years for it to be fully included in the StatsCan database because they will have to build up a comparison database for comparative analysis (for things like growth rate etc).

I know this has been discussed before and that STATSCAN has its rules but it sure would be nice if Freddy's numbers could include Oromocto. That would add an additional ~10K. More representative of the GFA population IMHO. But it is what it is

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Freddypop

I know this has been discussed before and that STATSCAN has its rules but it sure would be nice if Freddy's numbers could include Oromocto. That would add an additional ~10K. More representative of the GFA population IMHO. But it is what it is

Indeed. And the greater Moncton equivalent of Oromocto is Shediac, which is excluded (by StatsCan rules) from inclusion in the Moncton CMA. If Shediac (and Shediac Cape and Grand Barachois) were included, the Moncton CMA population would be very nearly 170,000.

I have some hope this will be addressed in the future, as I am sure that commuting patterns will eventually change. Shediac is growing like stink, with housing now visible from Highway 15 almost all the way along the section that bypasses Shediac. I doubt that most of the people living in these houses actually work in Shediac. Eventually, Shediac will be considered part of the Moncton commutershed, and then it will be included in our CMA. I don't know how long this will take, but I am convinced it will happen someday.

Oromocto may in fact be a tougher nut to crack on this issue. CFB Gagetown is the elephant in the room as far as employment in Oromocto is concerned. It will take a lot to change commuting patterns in the greater Fredericton area I fear.

[MonctonRad]

CBC has an article dealing with the StatsCan population estimates:

Big, bigger, biggest: Saint John, Fredericton jostle for position as sizzling Moncton holds top spot
N.B.s' 3 largest urban centres grew in 2020, with Moncton the seventh fastest-growing community in Canada
Robert Jones · CBC News · Posted: Jan 15, 2021 5:00 AM AT | Last Updated: 6 hours ago
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...owth-1.5874268

It was New Brunswick's largest urban centre as recently as 2003, but Greater Saint John is now 17 per cent smaller than Greater Moncton and is losing ground to Fredericton for the No. 2 spot.

New internal New Brunswick population estimates released Thursday by Statistics Canada offer insight into two decades of the cities' shifting positions and changing fortunes.

It shows a struggling Saint John, but one that has begun growing again and could ultimately fend off being overtaken by the capital city, according to Sébastien Lavoie, an analyst with Statistics Canada's Centre for Demography.

Lavoie said he can't say when, or if, Fredericton is expected to outstrip Saint John.

[Taeolas]

It'll take time, but even with CFB Gagetown, I'm sure Oromocto will be pulled 'officially' into Freddy's CMA eventually.

Growth in Lincoln and the airport will certainly help, bridging the gap between the two communities and bringing more traffic into the city.

If they every update Freddy Transit to run a line from Oromocto to Regent like I've been advocating, that would help spur more commuting between the communities as well.

We're probably at least 20ish years before that shift happens though, but it is surely inevitable.

[JHikka]

Nothing Robert Jones writes is ever positive. NB could send a man to the moon and he'd complain we didn't do it fast enough.

Saint John is showing its best growth in 15 years and it's struggling? Give me a break.

Fredericton isn't expected to pass SJ in pop. for another 25-35 years.

Originally Posted by Freddypop

I know this has been discussed before and that STATSCAN has its rules but it sure would be nice if Freddy's numbers could include Oromocto. That would add an additional ~10K. More representative of the GFA population IMHO. But it is what it is

StatCan. No s in th middle.

It is something we discuss fairly often and the explanation is brought up fairly often as well. Yes, Fredericton would be X amount bigger with Oromocto, and yes, Moncton would be X amount bigger with Shediac, but until commute numbers line up neither will be included in their respective CMAs. Shediac is getting closer but it's still probably 10-15 years away from being close to inclusion.

[cl812]

One thing that might help is the amount of commuter traffic from the Freddy CA/CMA to Oromocto (cant remember what the specific StatCan criterion is), which I think is a growing percentage (not sure where it is at but might be enough to meet requirement at some point in the future).

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by cl812

One thing that might help is the amount of commuter traffic from the Freddy CA/CMA to Oromocto (cant remember what the specific StatCan criterion is), which I think is a growing percentage (not sure where it is at but might be enough to meet requirement at some point in the future).

In cases for both forward commuting (Oromocto to Fredericton) or reverse commuting (Fredericton to Oromocto) the rules dictate that 50% of the of the employed labour force must commute to the area in question. I don't believe these overlap but i'd love to be proven wrong. In this case, it doesn't count if people live in Oromocto but travel to work in non-core CMA areas (like Lincoln, New Maryland, etc.) - they have to be commuting to work in the core of the CMA (Fredericton proper).

https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-r...geo009-eng.cfm

An interesting case that I think bears mentioning is when a CA and CMA are merged (rule 7 in the link). This rule states that the exchange in commuter flow only needs to be the sum of 35% of the CA labour force in either direction. I'd be curious if Shediac reaches CA status and then is merged into Moncton CMA this route...in which case Shediac seems to be on course to become a CA in 10-14 years (Shediac's core pop. is currently 7.4K, with 10K needed for CA). Wonder if that's quicker for it to being absorbed into Moncton's CMA than waiting to be absorbed naturally as a non-CA. On this note, Oromocto is another year or two from cracking 10K, theoretically becoming a CA for the next census cycle. I'm not 100% sure what the criteria is, though, given that Tracadie still isn't one. I think it's a certain pop. over a certain number of census' before CA inclusion.

[Taeolas]

Originally Posted by cl812

One thing that might help is the amount of commuter traffic from the Freddy CA/CMA to Oromocto (cant remember what the specific StatCan criterion is), which I think is a growing percentage (not sure where it is at but might be enough to meet requirement at some point in the future).

The Commuter Pattern is THE main thing needed to tie Oromocto and Freddy together. The main problem is CFB Gagetown is such a job generator in itself, The Model Town remains mostly independent of Freddy.

It is shifting as the city grows and grows closer to Oromocto in general; Lincoln growing will help as it will fill in the space between the two and spur more traffic in general. A transit link between the two would also help encourage more traffic between the communities.

[FreddyGuy]

Does the greater SJ area include Rothsay and Quispamsis? If so, Oromocto should surely be included in Fredericton. Looking on google maps, the distance is equivalent, if not less. The Fredericton airport is significantly closer to Oromocto than it is Fredericton and Lincoln clearly interconnects the two.

Combining Shediac to Moncton is a bit harder of a case as the distance is greater and there is little to no development between connecting them. Although I'm sure there will be one day.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by FreddyGuy

Does the greater SJ area include Rothsay and Quispamsis? If so, Oromocto should surely be included in Fredericton. Looking on google maps, the distance is equivalent, if not less. The Fredericton airport is significantly closer to Oromocto than it is Fredericton and Lincoln clearly interconnects the two.

Distances and arbitrary measurements don't dictate what is in a CMA and what isn't - they're dictated by commuting patterns from the smaller community into the larger community. Oromocto does not currently meet that criteria.

[Freddypop]

Originally Posted by FreddyGuy

Does the greater SJ area include Rothsay and Quispamsis? If so, Oromocto should surely be included in Fredericton. Looking on google maps, the distance is equivalent, if not less. The Fredericton airport is significantly closer to Oromocto than it is Fredericton and Lincoln clearly interconnects the two.

Combining Shediac to Moncton is a bit harder of a case as the distance is greater and there is little to no development between connecting them. Although I'm sure there will be one day.

Yes...The KV communities are included in the Saint John CMA numbers but Oromocto is not included in Freddy's numbers. This is because of the rule definition of a CMA due to the fact that commuting patterns for work purposes to Base Gagetown. If not for this rule, Freddy would have had CMA status several years ago.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by JHikka

I was mistaken! Census Division/Economic Region numbers are also out today. A month earlier than usual.

Census Division 2019/2020 Change
Westmorland ....164,065 (+2,812) (1.7%)
York ................107,917 (+1,076) (1.0%)
Gloucester .........78,810 (-206) (-0.3%)
Saint John .........77,921 (+430) (0.6%)
Kings ................71,032 (+347) (0.5%)
Northumberland .45,386 (-60) (-0.1%)
Madawaska ........33,076 (-119) (-0.4%)
Kent ..................31,658 (+199) (0.6%)
Restigouche ........30,810 (-130) (-0.4%)
Albert ................30,359 (+273) (0.9%)
Sunbury .............28,919 (+6) (0.0%)
Carleton ............26,766 (-4) (0.0%)
Charlotte ...........26,032 (+50) (0.2%)
Victoria .............18,462 (-27) (-0.1%)
Queens .............10,263 (-39) (-0.4%)

Economic Region 2019/2020 Change
Halifax ....................................448,518 (+9,008) (2.0%)
Avalon Peninsula ......................276,883 (+169) (0.1%)
Moncton-Richibucto ..................226,082 (+3,284) (1.5%)
Saint John-St.Stephen ..............174,985 (+827) (0.5%)
Prince Edward Island ................159,625 (+2,363) (1.5%)
Campbellton-Miramichi .............155,006 (-396) (-0.3%)
North Shore ............................153,791 (+427) (0.3%)
Fredericton-Oromocto ...............147,099 (+1,043) (0.7%)
Cape Breton ............................134,091 (-429) (-0.3%)
Annapolis Valley ......................128,109 (+429) (0.3%)
Southern ................................114,842 (+169) (0.1%)
Notre Dame-Central Bonavista ..106,298 (-677) (-0.6%)
West Coast-Northern Peninsula ..76,942 (-481) (-0.6%)*
Edmundston-Woodstock ............78,034 (-150) (-0.2%)
South Coast-Burin Peninsula .......34,306 (-384) (-1.1%)
Labrador ...................................27,674 (-4) (0.0%)*

*For the sake of this post I have separated Labrador from WC-NP

Would you have NB county estimated total change since 2016?

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Would you have NB county estimated total change since 2016?

County...2020 estimate (Change 2016-2020) Per% Change 16-20

Westmorland........164,065 (+10,588) 6.90%
York....................107,917 (+6,001) 5.89%
Gloucester............78,810 (-1,078) -1.35%
Saint John............77,921 (+2,216) 2.93%
Kings...................71,032 (+743) 1.06%
Northumberland....45,386 (-291) -0.64%
Madawaska...........33,076 (-277) -0.83%
Kent.....................31,658 (+586) 1.89%
Restigouche...........30,810 (-689) -2.19%
Albert...................30,359 (+591) 1.92%
Sunbury................28,919 (+550) 1.94%
Carleton................26,766 (+55) 0.21%
Charlotte...............26,032 (+121) 0.47%
Victoria.................18,462 (-486) -2.56%
Queens.................10,263 (-359) -3.38%

Between 2016 and 2020 Kent overtook Restigouche, Albert will do the same in the next few years, and Saint John will overtake Gloucester. Madawaska is likely overtaken by both Kent and Albert in the coming years as the Moncton commutershed continues to sprawl.

NB population for July 2020 estimated at 781,476 (has since declined in Q3 2020 projections). With these estimates, Southeast NB (Westmorland, Kent, and Albert) now combine for 29% of NB's population, or near to 1-in-3. Northern NB (Restigouche, Gloucester, Madawaska, Northumberland, Victoria) is now down to 26% of NB's population, or roughly 1-in-4, having dropped 2,821 people in the last five years.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by JHikka

County...2020 estimate (Change 2016-2020) Per% Change 16-20

Westmorland........164,065 (+10,588) 6.90%
York....................107,917 (+6,001) 5.89%
Gloucester............78,810 (-1,078) -1.35%
Saint John............77,921 (+2,216) 2.93%
Kings...................71,032 (+743) 1.06%
Northumberland....45,386 (-291) -0.64%
Madawaska...........33,076 (-277) -0.83%
Kent.....................31,658 (+586) 1.89%
Restigouche...........30,810 (-689) -2.19%
Albert...................30,359 (+591) 1.92%
Sunbury................28,919 (+550) 1.94%
Carleton................26,766 (+55) 0.21%
Charlotte...............26,032 (+121) 0.47%
Victoria.................18,462 (-486) -2.56%
Queens.................10,263 (-359) -3.38%

Between 2016 and 2020 Kent overtook Restigouche, Albert will do the same in the next few years, and Saint John will overtake Gloucester. Madawaska is likely overtaken by both Kent and Albert in the coming years as the Moncton commutershed continues to sprawl.

NB population for July 2020 estimated at 781,476 (has since declined in Q3 2020 projections). With these estimates, Southeast NB (Westmorland, Kent, and Albert) now combine for 29% of NB's population, or near to 1-in-3. Northern NB (Restigouche, Gloucester, Madawaska, Northumberland, Victoria) is now down to 26% of NB's population, or roughly 1-in-4, having dropped 2,821 people in the last five years.

Thanks.

Looking at the legislature, it's clear metro Moncton is about to yank an entire rural northern seat, and the Fredericton area needs a massive shake-up for parity. That Westmorland growth is insane. I like the naming conventions in Saint John better than the [City] [Direction] style that Moncton uses.

You can probably draw two 'Fredericton South' seats now. One, a shrunken version of Coon's seat, and the other from Lincoln to New Maryland. It's crazy how 'cracked' Fredericton is into the rural areas around it.