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  #801  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2022, 9:17 PM
Son of Travis Son of Travis is offline
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Q1 Notes for SMF

A few notes as we turn toward summer, traditionally the busiest travel time for SMF and the nation, and some trends are emerging.

Travel has clearly bounced back, although in most cases not to levels of pre-lockdown 2019, but solid numbers by any metric. SMF is at better than 90% pre-lockdown traffic.

How much does this translate into new service for SMF? Airlines appear to be taking a cautious approach with most growth being a return to service rather than new markets. Already noted above is new service to SBA on Southwest 1x/day. This replaces Contour Airlines 2x/day service which was yet another causality of the lockdowns having left the SMF market in March 2020.

As mentioned, Air Canada is returning in June and matching the pre-lockdown 1x/day to Vancouver. On August 8 Delta resumes daily, nonstop service to Detroit. The Vancouver and Detroit flights were gone from the SMF destination portfolio for a crippling 26-months each.

Most other markets from SMF are at best holding their own. This is of course primarily due to labor shortages, particularly pilots. Pilot shortages can’t be solved by offering overtime or other incentives as they often are with ground personnel. Pilots have strict rules re hours flown and this results in huge operational impacts. Most of the majors are cutting flights by a few points to accommodate these shortages.

https://komonews.com/news/business/a...-shortage-woes

The pilot shortage is somewhat understandable given the wild (and wrong) early projections re deaths from COVID and the impact that would have on travel. Airlines offered thousands of pilots early retirement and other incentives to leave so that they could get those costs off the books.

https://www.ajc.com/news/business/mo...NCGTE7QD63EUU/

Obviously we could sure use those pilots now, but even with vigorous recruitment, it might take at least through end of year to return to adequate staffing levels.

The impact to SMF is negligible, but real. So while American to DFW remains at 5x/day over the summer, Alaska to SEA goes from 7x to 5x daily. Southwest goes from 4x/week to Kona to 1x/week… that kind of thing.

And still no movement on some service lost to the lockdowns including flights to BWI, MCO, and MSY.

The notable exception to this service malaise is SMF-SAN. Always a lucrative market and for many years a Southwest monopoly, the summer of 2022 sees an explosion of flights as Southwest and Alaska battle it out for market dominance. Southwest plays to its strength and will offer an astounding 20 flights a day each way between the two cities.

From 6:00am to 9:00pm Southwest offers minimum hourly service at top of hour, and two banks, 7-9am and 5-7pm, flights are every 30 minutes at top and bottom of hour.

Alaska counters with first-class, smaller jets (faster loading/unloading), a larger, and often considered the best FF program that includes membership in OneWorld, and lounges at its larger stations with 7 flights/day.

27 flights a day between SMF and SAN: Mind blowing…

Demand remains strong, but as cost drives ticket prices ever higher, that could soon change. While most airlines hedge their fuel purchases, impacts from runaway inflation should start becoming apparent soon and could push prices beyond reach of many consumers.

This is, however, somewhat mitigated by a far more robust return of business flying than anyone anticipated. Here’s a link to the ARC (Airlines Reporting Corporation) Weekly Data.

https://www2.arccorp.com/about-us/ne...april-24-2022/

Some key take-aways include Business travel has recaptured over 70% of pre-lockdown totals and this is with the two largest business centers, California and New York, still among the most impacted by the lockdown/masking madness. Business travel is up 243% over 2021.

While a 30% hit to your most robust revenue stream is brutal, it’s much better than the Doomers were screeching less than a year ago and the trend is clearly in the right direction.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...orever-changed

The caveat here remains inflation. If costs continue their record-shattering pace, all bets are off…

So far traffic at SMF Q1 2022 shows remarkable resiliency. Total pax count is 2,407,525 with over 950,000 of that coming in March alone.

This reflects a strong 2021 finish where SMF handled over 2.9 million pax in the last three months to finish at 9.7 million for the year, which far exceeded the earlier, gloomy forecasts.

While encouraging, there’s no getting around what a tough hit that is from the pre-lockdown total of over 13,100,000. There’s just no way to hide the economic destruction losing nearly 3.5 million passengers brings.

Btw - the last time SMF had fewer annual passengers was… 2015!

SMF estimates show counts about on par with 2018 for 2022. That would mean a year-end count of about 12 million. 12 million represents just over 90% of 2019 and SMF is running about 90% of 2019 totals over the last six months, so yeah… a challenge, but absolutely doable.

Acknowledging that comparisons to 2019 are probably more meaningful, it’s still fun to note that passenger counts for the first three months of 2022 are up over 100% compared to 2021. Biggest winners for growth are Alaska, Hawaiian, and United. This January, Alaska carried around 450% more passengers out of SMF in 2022 over 2021.

Southwest retains a firm hold on 1st place for total passengers carried with nearly 1.275 million pax in Q1. United moves past American for #2 with Delta checking in at #4.

International traffic is up over 85% in 2022 and even without Air Canada, it’s better than 2019 for Q1!

International counts are led by Volaris and followed by AeroMexico. JetBlue’s service to Cancun carried a robust 3559 pax in March. Southwest to Cabo is now down to 1x/week and appears to keep that schedule through Summer.

Regionally, SMF remains the fourth busiest airport in California with 1076 flights scheduled in the coming week according to Flightradar 24. San Jose is closing fast at 1075 and Oakland stays at #6 with 969.

SMF’s reign as #4 will probably soon end as more international flights return to the skies. As many of you know, domestic service for SJC and SMF is pretty even, but SJC has a far stronger international schedule during more normal times. As far as the lockdowns are concerned, they are in the distant past for many destinations and this should result in more flights for SJC that SMF simply can’t match.

As of today, the top 10 markets (by flight count/average per day) for SMF are as follows:

SAN – 15
LAX - 13
SEA – 12
LAS - 11
BUR - 10
DEN - 8
PHX - 8
SNA - 7
ONT - 6
SLC – 5

Looking forward and as noted above, 2022 doesn’t appear to be a big year for new service at SMF as airlines focus on existing markets while grappling with labor shortages and obscene inflation.

Some things to look for though are the impacts of the proposed Frontier/Spirit merger. These two airlines combine for around six flights a day at SMF with service to Denver, Vegas, Phoenix, Ontario and Santa Ana. A combined airline is expected to focus on Atlanta, where Frontier maintains a hub. Delta could see some competition on SMF-ATL in 2023.

Please note that JetBlue recently announced an offer for Spirit, so this puts a bit of a damper on any Spirit/Frontier merger talks.

Other possible locations are Kansas City on Southwest. Kansas City is expected to open its new terminal in March 2023 and I’m told that SMF would be in the first wave of Southwest’s expansion there.

And as some of you know, David Neeleman, the guy who started JetBlue and is now founder and CEO for startup Breeze Airways, recently began flights on West Coast. Among them was the first commercial service ever to San Bernardino Airport (SBD), a former military base, from San Francisco. Looks like SBD has targeted SMF for its second destination on Breeze and has partnered with a local business group to subsidize a new route to Sacramento.

Some details at the link:
https://paxex.aero/sacramento-rapid-...rways-funding/

We’ll see…

Side note - Flew my first maskless flight last week and am delighted it was to SMF. What pure joy! This delight was shared by the vast majority of passengers and by 100% of the crew. Looked to be about 10 of the 76 passengers still masked-up in ignorant hysteria or smug buffoonery on our sold-out flight from San Diego. I was in Row 2 so I had the opportunity to see everyone who boarded. A couple of us laughed at every mask clown prancing by while the FAs smirked.

Don’t want that to sound too harsh, but for two years now I’ve been screamed at that being skeptical of mask efficacy on planes was tantamount to killing grandma or "the children."

Eff ‘em…

Happy flying everyone!
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  #802  
Old Posted Apr 28, 2022, 7:39 PM
Son of Travis Son of Travis is offline
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uh oh...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Son of Travis View Post
A few notes as we turn toward summer, traditionally the busiest travel time for SMF and the nation, and some trends are emerging.

Travel has clearly bounced back, although in most cases not to levels of pre-lockdown 2019, but solid numbers by any metric. SMF is at better than 90% pre-lockdown traffic.

How much does this translate into new service for SMF? Airlines appear to be taking a cautious approach with most growth being a return to service rather than new markets. Already noted above is new service to SBA on Southwest 1x/day. This replaces Contour Airlines 2x/day service which was yet another causality of the lockdowns having left the SMF market in March 2020.

As mentioned, Air Canada is returning in June and matching the pre-lockdown 1x/day to Vancouver. On August 8 Delta resumes daily, nonstop service to Detroit. The Vancouver and Detroit flights were gone from the SMF destination portfolio for a crippling 26-months each.

Most other markets from SMF are at best holding their own. This is of course primarily due to labor shortages, particularly pilots. Pilot shortages can’t be solved by offering overtime or other incentives as they often are with ground personnel. Pilots have strict rules re hours flown and this results in huge operational impacts. Most of the majors are cutting flights by a few points to accommodate these shortages.

https://komonews.com/news/business/a...-shortage-woes

The pilot shortage is somewhat understandable given the wild (and wrong) early projections re deaths from COVID and the impact that would have on travel. Airlines offered thousands of pilots early retirement and other incentives to leave so that they could get those costs off the books.

https://www.ajc.com/news/business/mo...NCGTE7QD63EUU/

Obviously we could sure use those pilots now, but even with vigorous recruitment, it might take at least through end of year to return to adequate staffing levels.

The impact to SMF is negligible, but real. So while American to DFW remains at 5x/day over the summer, Alaska to SEA goes from 7x to 5x daily. Southwest goes from 4x/week to Kona to 1x/week… that kind of thing.

And still no movement on some service lost to the lockdowns including flights to BWI, MCO, and MSY.

The notable exception to this service malaise is SMF-SAN. Always a lucrative market and for many years a Southwest monopoly, the summer of 2022 sees an explosion of flights as Southwest and Alaska battle it out for market dominance. Southwest plays to its strength and will offer an astounding 20 flights a day each way between the two cities.

From 6:00am to 9:00pm Southwest offers minimum hourly service at top of hour, and two banks, 7-9am and 5-7pm, flights are every 30 minutes at top and bottom of hour.

Alaska counters with first-class, smaller jets (faster loading/unloading), a larger, and often considered the best FF program that includes membership in OneWorld, and lounges at its larger stations with 7 flights/day.

27 flights a day between SMF and SAN: Mind blowing…

Demand remains strong, but as cost drives ticket prices ever higher, that could soon change. While most airlines hedge their fuel purchases, impacts from runaway inflation should start becoming apparent soon and could push prices beyond reach of many consumers.

This is, however, somewhat mitigated by a far more robust return of business flying than anyone anticipated. Here’s a link to the ARC (Airlines Reporting Corporation) Weekly Data.

https://www2.arccorp.com/about-us/ne...april-24-2022/

Some key take-aways include Business travel has recaptured over 70% of pre-lockdown totals and this is with the two largest business centers, California and New York, still among the most impacted by the lockdown/masking madness. Business travel is up 243% over 2021.

While a 30% hit to your most robust revenue stream is brutal, it’s much better than the Doomers were screeching less than a year ago and the trend is clearly in the right direction.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...orever-changed

The caveat here remains inflation. If costs continue their record-shattering pace, all bets are off…

So far traffic at SMF Q1 2022 shows remarkable resiliency. Total pax count is 2,407,525 with over 950,000 of that coming in March alone.

This reflects a strong 2021 finish where SMF handled over 2.9 million pax in the last three months to finish at 9.7 million for the year, which far exceeded the earlier, gloomy forecasts.

While encouraging, there’s no getting around what a tough hit that is from the pre-lockdown total of over 13,100,000. There’s just no way to hide the economic destruction losing nearly 3.5 million passengers brings.

Btw - the last time SMF had fewer annual passengers was… 2015!

SMF estimates show counts about on par with 2018 for 2022. That would mean a year-end count of about 12 million. 12 million represents just over 90% of 2019 and SMF is running about 90% of 2019 totals over the last six months, so yeah… a challenge, but absolutely doable.

Acknowledging that comparisons to 2019 are probably more meaningful, it’s still fun to note that passenger counts for the first three months of 2022 are up over 100% compared to 2021. Biggest winners for growth are Alaska, Hawaiian, and United. This January, Alaska carried around 450% more passengers out of SMF in 2022 over 2021.

Southwest retains a firm hold on 1st place for total passengers carried with nearly 1.275 million pax in Q1. United moves past American for #2 with Delta checking in at #4.

International traffic is up over 85% in 2022 and even without Air Canada, it’s better than 2019 for Q1!

International counts are led by Volaris and followed by AeroMexico. JetBlue’s service to Cancun carried a robust 3559 pax in March. Southwest to Cabo is now down to 1x/week and appears to keep that schedule through Summer.

Regionally, SMF remains the fourth busiest airport in California with 1076 flights scheduled in the coming week according to Flightradar 24. San Jose is closing fast at 1075 and Oakland stays at #6 with 969.

SMF’s reign as #4 will probably soon end as more international flights return to the skies. As many of you know, domestic service for SJC and SMF is pretty even, but SJC has a far stronger international schedule during more normal times. As far as the lockdowns are concerned, they are in the distant past for many destinations and this should result in more flights for SJC that SMF simply can’t match.

As of today, the top 10 markets (by flight count/average per day) for SMF are as follows:

SAN – 15
LAX - 13
SEA – 12
LAS - 11
BUR - 10
DEN - 8
PHX - 8
SNA - 7
ONT - 6
SLC – 5

Looking forward and as noted above, 2022 doesn’t appear to be a big year for new service at SMF as airlines focus on existing markets while grappling with labor shortages and obscene inflation.

Some things to look for though are the impacts of the proposed Frontier/Spirit merger. These two airlines combine for around six flights a day at SMF with service to Denver, Vegas, Phoenix, Ontario and Santa Ana. A combined airline is expected to focus on Atlanta, where Frontier maintains a hub. Delta could see some competition on SMF-ATL in 2023.

Please note that JetBlue recently announced an offer for Spirit, so this puts a bit of a damper on any Spirit/Frontier merger talks.

Other possible locations are Kansas City on Southwest. Kansas City is expected to open its new terminal in March 2023 and I’m told that SMF would be in the first wave of Southwest’s expansion there.

And as some of you know, David Neeleman, the guy who started JetBlue and is now founder and CEO for startup Breeze Airways, recently began flights on West Coast. Among them was the first commercial service ever to San Bernardino Airport (SBD), a former military base, from San Francisco. Looks like SBD has targeted SMF for its second destination on Breeze and has partnered with a local business group to subsidize a new route to Sacramento.

Some details at the link:
https://paxex.aero/sacramento-rapid-...rways-funding/

We’ll see…

Side note - Flew my first maskless flight last week and am delighted it was to SMF. What pure joy! This delight was shared by the vast majority of passengers and by 100% of the crew. Looked to be about 10 of the 76 passengers still masked-up in ignorant hysteria or smug buffoonery on our sold-out flight from San Diego. I was in Row 2 so I had the opportunity to see everyone who boarded. A couple of us laughed at every mask clown prancing by while the FAs smirked.

Don’t want that to sound too harsh, but for two years now I’ve been screamed at that being skeptical of mask efficacy on planes was tantamount to killing grandma or "the children."

Eff ‘em…

Happy flying everyone!
Just a quick note to my earlier comments.

United States GDP was announced today and our economy SHRANK by 1.4% in Q1 2022.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...22-q1-economy/

This is stunning.

Coming out of a pandemic and lockdowns should mean a booming economy with record growth (Q4 2021 GDP was up 6.9%).

Instead, GDP SHRANK...

With interest rates rising and the aforementioned inflation continuing its brutal, record pace, 12,000,000 for SMF in 2022 may be wildly optimistic.

Keep fingers crossed...
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  #803  
Old Posted May 2, 2022, 3:22 PM
Son of Travis Son of Travis is offline
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More re San Bernardino-SMF

Looks like, in addition to the local business group subsidy, San Bernardino is applying for a Small Community Air Service Development Grant (SCASDP) for its proposed service to Sacramento.

Asking for a million bucks from the feds, $750k from local group, and then $129,300 in airport fee waivers to total $1,879,300 to support the new service.

The application notes that the service to SFO starts in August 2022. If successful, the service to SMF would start "shortly after."

Further in the application a proposed schedule shows "service initiation" in May 2023.

Here's a link to the app.

https://downloads.regulations.gov/DO...tachment_1.pdf

With Ontario being so close (22 miles), I'm not sure how successful this grant application is going to be...
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  #804  
Old Posted May 4, 2022, 4:56 PM
Son of Travis Son of Travis is offline
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Bye Bye Boutique

Some of you may already know this. I only discovered it as a “throw-away” line from someone in the industry and I gave it a, “wait… wut?”

Boutique Airways, which operated two flights per day from SMF to Merced (MCE) with a continuation to LAX, will not return to Sacramento.

These flights, which were part of the Fed’s Essential Air Service (EAS) program, have been replaced by Advanced Air, which is presently flying 4x/day out of Merced: 2x/day to Las Vegas and 2x/day to LAX using a combination of eight-passenger PC-12, and King Air 350 aircraft, which seat nine.

You may recall that Boutique switched the MCE flights from Oakland to SMF in May 2019 to better take advantage of its interline agreements with American and United. Advance Air has no interline agreements.

In Boutique’s last full year at SMF (2021), it carried 1514 pax.

In addition to Merced and LAX, Advanced Air's other California destinations include Burbank, Carlsbad, Mammoth Lakes, and Hawthorne, where it maintains a hub.

The Advance Air contract, which was vigorously contested by Boutique Air, was awarded in October 2021 and took effect in January 2022. It runs through December 31, 2025.

Used to love seeing the Boutique PC-12 on the ramp in Concourse B (I think it was B-8). For those who don’t know, the PC-12 cruises at over 300MPH making it one of the fastest single-engine planes (if not the fastest) in commercial service.

Going to miss it…
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  #805  
Old Posted May 16, 2022, 4:38 PM
Son of Travis Son of Travis is offline
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SMF - Intra-California Flying

Came across an OAG (Official Airline Guide) from 1995 and was astounded by the number and breadth of intra-California flights from SMF.

This is from April 2, so not even in peak travel time yet. Check out this schedule. Most are daily and all are at least 5x/week. I list flight time (as blocked, actual flight time is typically shorter) and the parent airline if flown by a commuter. I also compare to service today, 5/16/2022 below in italics.

Bakersfield – 3x/day – 1hr 15 min - Delta Connection
No service

Burbank – 10x/day – 1hr 15 min – Southwest
11/day – 1hr 15 min - Southwest

Chico – 2x/day – 30 min - Reno Air Express
No service

Eureka/Arcata – 3x/day – 1hr 5 min – United Express
No service

Fresno – 3x/day – 55 min – United Express
No service

LAX – 13x/day – 1hr 15 min – Southwest/United
15x/day – 1hr 25 min – American/Delta/United/Southwest

Ontario – 9x/day – 1hr 10 min – Southwest
8x/day – 1hr 20 min - Southwest

Orange County – 6x/day – 1hr 25 min – America West
7x/day – 1hr 25 min – Southwest/Spirit

Palm Springs - No service
2x/day – 1hr 25 min - Southwest

San Diego – 14x/day – 1hr 25 min - Southwest/United
16x/day – 1hr 30 min – Alaska/Southwest

SFO – 21x/day – 40 min – United Express/USAir Express
2x/day – 1hr 4 min – United

San Jose – 5x/day – 45 min – Reno Air Express
No service

San Luis Obispo – 4x/day – 1hr 5 min – Delta Connection
No service

Santa Barbara – 4x/day – 1hr 25 min – Delta Connection
No service (Note: starts in June on Southwest.)

That’s 97 flights a day to 14 destinations within California getting you almost anywhere in the state in less than 90 min. Today there are 61 intra-California flights.

Total pax in 1995 was just over 6.7 million with 24 destinations. With only 24 destinations total, and only 10 of those out of state, I have to think most of this traffic was O&D. Even now, with well over 40 destinations, SMF is not typically used for connecting (Southwest routes some connecting pax through SMF, but that number is relatively small.).

The exception of course is SFO as it was by far the leading connecting airport for the Sacramento market until about 2002, when SMF saw large increases in out-of-state flights to other hubs. The Reno Air Express flights to San Jose and Chico also appear to be for connections at SJC.

I don’t see many connecting opportunities for flights to Bakersfield, Fresno, Santa Barbara, etc. What could the dynamics be to support such a robust, intra-California, schedule from SMF in the mid-nineties?

97 flights every day to cities within California… wow!

Happy flying everyone!
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  #806  
Old Posted May 23, 2022, 5:17 PM
Son of Travis Son of Travis is offline
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Hawaiian Adds Widebody...

As many of you may recall, with the introduction of the A321, Hawaiian Airlines eliminated it's widebody service (first the 767, then the 278-seat A332) from SMF to the Islands.

In June of last year, given the robust demand, Hawaiian returned the A332 to SMF-HNL, originally through mid-August. That schedule underestimated the SMF-HNL market and the 332 never left, still flying daily out of SMF now and for the foreseeable future.

SMF-Maui has stayed with the smaller A321 until now. Starting June 1 SMF-OGG is an A332 through July 1.

This means Hawaiian alone has 556 seats a day out of SMF.

Some other summer 2022 adjustments:

Frontier has cut SMF-PHX, but for now it's scheduled to return on August 8. Frontier cut SMF-ONT last month. SMF-LAS is cut to 6x/week (fuel costs are starting to impact the low-cost carriers).

United has reduced SMF-EWR from daily to 6x/week; reduced SMF-ORD from 3x/day to 19/week.

Happy flying everyone!
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  #807  
Old Posted Dec 8, 2022, 8:31 PM
Son of Travis Son of Travis is offline
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New Service for SMF

Didn't see this posted so...

In what has to be considered a delightful surprise, Air Canada announced today non-stop service to Toronto out of SMF.

4x week, non-seasonal, on the new A220, one of the best birds on the sky.

Air Canada Flight 758 departs mornings at 9:25 on M, Tu, Th, Sa.

Aircraft will RON after arrving at SMF at 8:55 on Su, M, W, F.

What great news for SMF! Six international destinations now and counting...

Happy flying everyone!
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  #808  
Old Posted Dec 9, 2022, 7:08 AM
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otnemarcaS otnemarcaS is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Son of Travis View Post
Didn't see this posted so...

In what has to be considered a delightful surprise, Air Canada announced today non-stop service to Toronto out of SMF.

4x week, non-seasonal, on the new A220, one of the best birds on the sky.

Air Canada Flight 758 departs mornings at 9:25 on M, Tu, Th, Sa.

Aircraft will RON after arrving at SMF at 8:55 on Su, M, W, F.

What great news for SMF! Six international destinations now and counting...

Happy flying everyone!

Really good to hear this. I plan to fly to Toronto next year. Price seems competitive as well for a nonstop flight.

Hopefully they also add SMF to Montreal nonstops in the future.

Last edited by otnemarcaS; Dec 9, 2022 at 7:25 AM.
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  #809  
Old Posted Dec 9, 2022, 6:24 PM
kamehameha kamehameha is offline
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Whatever happened to the planned flights to Asia? They were talking to some airliners from China.
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  #810  
Old Posted Dec 9, 2022, 7:00 PM
Son of Travis Son of Travis is offline
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Originally Posted by otnemarcaS View Post
Really good to hear this. I plan to fly to Toronto next year. Price seems competitive as well for a nonstop flight.

Hopefully they also add SMF to Montreal nonstops in the future.
Although my contacts at SMF have been greatly depleated over the years, I still get a juicy tidbit tossed my way on occasion.

Talking with a few folks in the industry and they said the SMF team is ecstatic because Air Canada was choosing between reinstating service to Toronto from San Jose, where it had been 3x/day prior to the lockdowns, or starting new service to Sacramento.

Obviously, they went with SMF. The local team relishes any victory over San Jose and this may be the first time SMF has come out on top for an international route (no one could remember another time).

Hoping the local community jumps all over this flight cuz it really is a pretty big deal.

Btw - a couple of things you may not have heard is that Alaska is increasing the number of flights to San Diego next year to 7x/day. Southwest increases service to Saint Louis to 6x/week (up from 1x/week at present). And... Southwest returns to Nashville on March 11 with a 1x/week - Saturday only flight departing at 8:05am (the return flight ariives @ 12:55pm).

That Nashville flight has done well in the past so I think we can expect to see that grow as more pilots and equipment return to the skies.

I'm told that Kansas City remains a definite add once the new airport there opens in March (of course, I was told Puerto Vallarta was a definite add and we saw how that went...)

Still some gaping holes left from the lockdown carnage (Orlando, Detroit, Baltimore, New Orleans among the most painful) and some long-sought service is significantly delayed (LHR, NRT/HND now not expected until the end of decade), but SMF has more than held its own.

This is refelcted in the recent FRQ requests for termnal and concourse expansions.

RFQ packages are due December 20 for a new passenger walkway connecting Terminal B (Landside) to Concourse B (airside). As you know, at present you can only get between the terminal and the gates by the Automatic People Mover. This walkway will also be used to connect a future Concourse C.

Also due December 20 are qualifications to add six to eight gates to the existing terminals. The airport team is finalizing the preferred mix and alternatives for each terminal now.

However the gates are split between terminals, it will also require additional baggage claim carousels, baggage handling system expansion and related improvements, additional ticket counters, and office space.

The rest of the schedule looks like this...

December 20, 2022 - RFQ due date
January 5, 2023 - Interview invitation letters sent to proposers
January 18 - 19, 2023 - Interviews
March 21, 2023 - Recommendations of selection presented to Board
April 4, 2023 - Effective date of agreement with selected proposer

The terms for these services start at five years with two one-year extensions. So probably looking at best case 2027 to use the new gates. That's only four or so years and really not bad at all for these kinds of things.

While no one had specific dates for the new walkway, it is on an accelerated schedule because it is part of an ADA-related agreement.

I'll be flying into SMF at least one more time this year. I always look forward to it.

Happy flying everyone!
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Old Posted Dec 12, 2022, 2:45 AM
Son of Travis Son of Travis is offline
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More good news for SMF?

Being told that American will soon anounce new service between Sacramento and Austin, Texas. This would be an unique, non-traditional hub add and compete with Southwest's morning daily (Note: Austin has become and American Focus City over the last several years).

Like Toronto, this add, if true, is another that no one saw coming. I hear rumors all the time and stay quiet (usually the best policy re airline routes), but the person who told me this has a pretty high batting average.

Happy flying everyone and keep fingers crossed.
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Last edited by Son of Travis; Dec 12, 2022 at 2:53 AM. Reason: Noted that Austin is a focus city.
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  #812  
Old Posted Dec 18, 2022, 2:33 AM
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urban_encounter urban_encounter is offline
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Originally Posted by Son of Travis View Post
RFQ packages are due December 20 for a new passenger walkway connecting Terminal B (Landside) to Concourse B (airside). As you know, at present you can only get between the terminal and the gates by the Automatic People Mover. This walkway will also be used to connect a future Concourse C.

Also due December 20 are qualifications to add six to eight gates to the existing terminals. The airport team is finalizing the preferred mix and alternatives for each terminal now.

However the gates are split between terminals, it will also require additional baggage claim carousels, baggage handling system expansion and related improvements, additional ticket counters, and office space.

The rest of the schedule looks like this...

December 20, 2022 - RFQ due date
January 5, 2023 - Interview invitation letters sent to proposers
January 18 - 19, 2023 - Interviews
March 21, 2023 - Recommendations of selection presented to Board
April 4, 2023 - Effective date of agreement with selected proposer

The terms for these services start at five years with two one-year extensions. So probably looking at best case 2027 to use the new gates. That's only four or so years and really not bad at all for these kinds of things.

While no one had specific dates for the new walkway, it is on an accelerated schedule because it is part of an ADA-related agreement.

I'll be flying into SMF at least one more time this year. I always look forward to it.

Happy flying everyone!

It’s always bothered me that the APM doesn’t run enough train cars. I traveled to San Diego last month and it was a late evening arrival when I returned back to Sacramento along with a couple of other arrivals. It was quite time consuming to catch an APM to the Central Terminal due to the large crowds waiting to do the same. I’m looking forward to having the option for a walkway instead of the APM.
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  #813  
Old Posted Dec 18, 2022, 9:51 PM
Son of Travis Son of Travis is offline
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Originally Posted by urban_encounter View Post
It’s always bothered me that the APM doesn’t run enough train cars. I traveled to San Diego last month and it was a late evening arrival when I returned back to Sacramento along with a couple of other arrivals. It was quite time consuming to catch an APM to the Central Terminal due to the large crowds waiting to do the same. I’m looking forward to having the option for a walkway instead of the APM.
Some more details about the walkway and the APM.

The airport just issued an update for the walkway selection process. Schedule is below.

o December 20, 2022 SOQ&E (Statements of Qualifications and Experience) due date
o January 5, 2023 Interview invitation letters sent to responding firms
o January 18 - 19, 2023 Interviews
o March 28, 2023 Recommendations of selection presented to Board
o April 11, 2023 Effective date of agreement with selected firm

Difference is that the final two steps have been pushed back a week each.

Other details show the walkway will exit the existing Terminal B just to the west of the APM boarding area. It will then extend northwest over both Airport Blvd and Lindbergh Drive to a circulation “Hub” that includes four escalators bringing it down to a level that matches the Concourse B gate level (you may notice how the existing APM slopes down on way to Concourse B). This hub is also where the walkway connects with a future Terminal C, which is located where the old terminals were and shows 12 gates.

The walkway also has four moving sidewalks, two each on each side of the hub. These sidewalks are 230’ on the south side (pre-hub), and 320’ on the north side (to concourse B from hub.) South walkway is 45’ wide; north walkway is 35’ wide. Total budget is $130M.

In the short-term, plans are being completed that increase to car count on the APM from two cars for each train to four cars.

As shown above the SOQ&Es are due Tuesday, which means the final draft of the Pedestrian Walkway Concept Design must be nearing completion and will undoubtedly soon be made available to the public.

Some other notes show ultimate build-out for Concourse A at 23 gates and Concourse B at 29 gates. Add the 12 from a future Concourse C and you get 62 gates total, or not quite double the present 32 gates (19 in B, 13 in A).

Other near-term projects include relocating the consolidated rental car facility to an area just to south of Terminal A parking garage. Best case for that is construction start in 2025 (Anyone who rents a car at SMF knows this is long overdue). Budget for this is $300-$400M.

Also in progress is planning for a new ground transportation center located between Terminal B and the Terminal A parking garage. Budget is $75M. The Terminal B parking garage planning is also coming along with RFQs scheduled to go out in Q2 2023. Budget is $200M.

Also planned is the expansion of the cargo deck to accommodate three more large aircraft.

All of this comes as SMF has weathered the lockdown storm comparatively well.

2022 Sacramento International Airport (SMF) passenger traffic has returned to 95% of 2019 passenger level (the historical peak).

As noted elsewhere July 2022 was the second highest monthly total in airport history. Any traffic issues now have nothing to do with COVID-related BS and everything to do with a sputtering economy. But even with this robust return, growth forecasts are delayed three years as a result of the lockdowns. Traffic levels predicted in 2019 show enplanements previously expected in 2022 now expected in 2025.

Couple of quick notes. Kansas City-SMF was not part of last weeks’ Southwest Airlines schedule add. That add includes every seat available for booking through August 8. Several of us had hoped to see the SMF-MCI service on this release, but Southwest apparently wants more confidence the new airport will open on time and that they’ll have enough equipment/crews, the latter of which is the bigger question.

Doesn’t mean it won’t happen, but Southwest did add some flights to MCI in this release, SMF not one of them…

Also in that release, Southwest is showing 16x/day to SAN. San Diego remains SMF’s largest market next summer with 23 flights a day (Alaska at 7x) each way. Not quite this summer’s 27x/day, but not bad.

Re the rumor of AA to Austin. It is confirmed. No announcement, but the flight has been added to American’s schedule for booking. AA Flight #3777 departs daily from SMF at 11:30am. Flight #3777 (yep… same number) arrives from Austin at 11:00am. Starts May 5.

Happy flying everyone!
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  #814  
Old Posted Dec 22, 2022, 6:07 AM
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A SMF to NRT route would get a lot of use I think. I would buy several seats a year. What’s needed for that to happen though? Longer runways, better immigration area etc?
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  #815  
Old Posted Dec 23, 2022, 3:41 PM
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Originally Posted by enigma99a View Post
A SMF to NRT route would get a lot of use I think. I would buy several seats a year. What’s needed for that to happen though? Longer runways, better immigration area etc?
SMF's present 8600 ft runways can accomodate a fully loaded 787, which has the range for both Asia and Europe. They can not handle fully loaded 747s, A380s, or larger 777s.

The present international arrival processing facility, commonly referred to as the Federal Inspection Station, or FIS, can process over 400 pax/hr. through Gates B8 and B10. The 787-9 is typically configured for fewer than 300 passengers. With relatively minor renovations, that capacity can be increased to 800/hr.

Facilities aren't the issue for travel to NRT at SMF.

Happy flying everyone and Merry Christmas!
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  #816  
Old Posted Jan 23, 2023, 7:51 PM
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United at SMF this summer...

Doing some background while waiting for SMF to publish its final numbers for 2022 and came across this - United's summer schedule for SMF looks pretty healthy.

6 flights/day to Denver.
All mainline. I think this is the most ever for United to Denver. Total number of flights to DEN for all airlines this summer averages 12/day, which I think is also a record high.

4 flights/day to Chicago.
All mainline. I think this ties for most daily flights to ORD on United. Total number of flights to Chicago (including Midway) for all airlines this summer is 7/day.

2 flights/day to Houston. That's up from 1x/day presently.

New York (1x), Washington(1x), and LAX (2x) all return after their winter hiatus.

SFO remains unchanged at 2x/day.

18x/day from United this summer. I think that's up from 14 in summer 2022. All domestic hubs have service from SMF.

The capacity increase to Chicago and Denver is the big story here. Not all airports are seeing that kind of commitment from United.

2023 could be a pretty good year at SMF. This is a great start.

Happy flying everyone!
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  #817  
Old Posted Jan 25, 2023, 6:24 AM
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In response to Travis' comment, I certainly hope 2023 will be a great year for SMF. Certainly seems to be so far with the announcement of the new nonstop to Toronto, Nashville and additional service to Austin in May. And it sounds like United's schedule for this summer looks pretty good as well, though I didn't see anything for SMF-EWR in regards to additional flights. Are they still keeping it with the 1x red-eye? All in all, hoping 2023 will be great year for SMF!
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  #818  
Old Posted Jan 28, 2023, 3:11 PM
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Looks like SMF came just shy of the record for 2022 with the final numbers showing 12,313,370. I knew it was going to be close but with all the cancelation in December, especially the Southwest fiasco, the numbers for the month were significantly low. May 2023 be a banner year!
https://sacramento.aero/scas/about/reports
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  #819  
Old Posted Jan 29, 2023, 6:10 PM
Son of Travis Son of Travis is offline
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Originally Posted by sactivity View Post
Looks like SMF came just shy of the record for 2022 with the final numbers showing 12,313,370. I knew it was going to be close but with all the cancelation in December, especially the Southwest fiasco, the numbers for the month were significantly low. May 2023 be a banner year!
https://sacramento.aero/scas/about/reports
All things considered, 12.3M is pretty darn good. I’ll go into a deeper dive later, but SMF received its first bad news for 2023. Alaska posted its spring schedule over the weekend and SMF takes a tough hit.

SMF-SAN goes from 7x/day to 3x/day. Seattle drops to 6x/day. Portland to 2x/day. Boise stays at 1x.

That’s a brutal 44% hit on the bookable schedule from last week.

Many unfortunate factors for this, not the least of which is Alaska completely phasing-out the Q400 aircraft. While the turboprops only saw very limited service at SMF, they are being replaced in many smaller markets with the E175 twinjet. That leaves fewer E175s to serve larger markets like SMF (all SMF-SAN Alaska flights are on the E175 and operated by Skywest).

Of course high interest rates and inflation are job killers and this plays a role too, but I think equipment and crew shortages are the biggest issue for the cuts at SMF.

San Jose is taking a similar hit, but Alaska chief Ben Minicucci ties those cuts more to a sputtering economy than shortages saying Silicon Valley has “turned off” its business travel so far in 2023 and we’ve seen tens of thousands of layoffs there in the last year.

Alaska is scheduled to receive eight E175s in 2023. Skywest zero (they took 10 for Alaska ops in 2022). So there might be some relief coming this summer, but for now it looks grim.

Keep fingers crossed and happy flying!
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  #820  
Old Posted Feb 2, 2023, 12:25 AM
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Sacramento International Airport is poised for a $1.3 billion renovation, adding six to eight new gates, a covered pedestrian walkway, additional parking and more. Here are the renderings for the SMForward plan: GATE EXPANSION AT SACRAMENTO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT Gate expansion at Terminal B is planned over the next several years. It includes six to eight new gates; the number will be determined based on ongoing passenger assessments.

Quote:
NEW PEDESTRIAN WALKWAY The planned internal pedestrian walkway would be an alternative to the current Automated People Mover, which connects the pre-security area with ticket counters and baggage claim and the post-security area with departure gates in Terminal B. Airport officials said the enclosed walkway could add more capacity for passengers as well as enhance accessibility.



Quote:
The expansion project also includes: an additional parking garage, 3,400-5,500 spaces west of Terminal B. a new consolidated car rental center and a new ground transportation center
Pretty cool and there's a ton of space to add for the future. Maybe another terminal located to the southwest of terminal B? Looks like just a parking apron.
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