Downtown Toronto’s pace of population growth triples, outpacing suburbs’ ...

[novawolverine]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

I don't think so. Many people from outside the country seem to be just taking an example from elsewhere and superimposing it 1:1 without really knowing or caring about the specifics and intricacies.

That may be true for some, however, there are commonalities between places that face certain issues. We see time and time again people using these so-called specifics and intricacies to explain why it's different this time when that's not the case.

[J. Will]

Originally Posted by isaidso

I noticed that map the last time you posted it and found it very interesting, but what is the land area? Looks to be about 3.6 km x 3.6 km or about 13 sq km. Based on that estimation, we arrive at a population density of roughly 13,466 people/sq km in the downtown.

For the sake of comparison, Manhattan has 1,601,948 people on 59 sq km for a population density of 27,151 people/sq km. As one can see, downtown Toronto would need to double its population to achieve Manhattan density albeit on an area one quarter the size. Quite a jump, but at the rate the downtown is growing we might be seeing density above 20,000 before the decade is out.

I said in my post that it is about 5 square miles.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by novawolverine

That may be true for some, however, there are commonalities between places that face certain issues. We see time and time again people using these so-called specifics and intricacies to explain why it's different this time when that's not the case.

Unfortunately it's impossible to know what things are common and what things are different without taking the time to understand the intricacies of the situation. Simply jumping to conclusions because they fit your belief system doesn't cut it.

[novawolverine]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

Unfortunately it's impossible to know what things are common and what things are different without taking the time to understand the intricacies of the situation. Simply jumping to conclusions because they fit your belief system doesn't cut it.

You can look at rents to prices, incomes to sale prices, ownership costs as % of household income, and other metrics to help understand what kinds of circumstances exist and identify trends between different markets and different eras. It's good to understand the intricacies of different situations but a lot of the time, it's not rocket science and some of these intricacies are just noise that offset the inevitable from happening.

[Nouvellecosse]

The point is, looking at things in a very basic and superficial manner like that is fine as long as you don't assume that just because very basic and superficial data is correlating between markets means that everything else does as well. Sometimes it does, and sometimes it doesn't. I know often times the KISS philosophy is very popular, because it comforts people into thinking they can be experts without exerting any effort, but as much of a nuisance as it may be, sometimes predicting the future actually is a little closer to rocket science.

[kool maudit]

it is aesthetically and "urbanistically" (?) unfortunate that toronto's traditional inner-city housing consists of detached and semi-detached housing. though i understand that these dwellings, in many cases, have been modified so as to function at densities equivalent to montreal triplexes or philadelphia rowhouses, they do not provide the same sense of continuity as one gets when turning off of a manhattan or brooklyn commercial street onto a brownstone side-street. even an highrise-adjacent area like montreal's mcgill ghetto seems to interact with the newer highrises in a more coherent way than does, say, yorkville.

residential toronto needs streetwalls. there is an aesthetic problem with the city's "bones."

[P. Alouishous]

Originally Posted by kool maudit

it is aesthetically and "urbanistically" (?) unfortunate that toronto's traditional inner-city housing consists of detached and semi-detached housing. though i understand that these dwellings, in many cases, have been modified so as to function at densities equivalent to montreal triplexes or philadelphia rowhouses, they do not provide the same sense of continuity as one gets when turning off of a manhattan or brooklyn commercial street onto a brownstone side-street. even an highrise-adjacent area like montreal's mcgill ghetto seems to interact with the newer highrises in a more coherent way than does, say, yorkville.

residential toronto needs streetwalls. there is an aesthetic problem with the city's "bones."

I LOVE Toronto's inner-city semi-detached and row housing! Having them right next to tall skyscrapers adds to Toronto's eclectic character. Their red brick also brightens things up during grey winters. I find Montreal's grey stone everywhere only adds to the winter gloom.

As for density, a quick look at any density map will show that these semi-detached/rowhouse inner-city areas are denser than almost any other low-rise area in North America. Plus, people have the option of being able to live in a house with a garden right downtown (if they can afford it).

[Onn]

I would say Toronto, and Canada in general, has a serious bubble on its hands. Of course we've known that for years now. New projects in Downtown Toronto are leaning toward the outragous, 300m (1,000 ft) Condo Towers! If you don't believe me just look at the Toronto diagram page on SSP:

http://skyscraperpage.com/diagrams/?cityID=12

Suddenly Toronto has turned into Dubai. Where all the new people are getting the money for such extremly high-end luxury apparements is beyond me. The much hyped about Trump Tower has already had major financial problems.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by Onn

I would say Toronto, and Canada in general, has a serious bubble on its hands. Of course we've known that for years now. New projects in Downtown Toronto are leaning toward the outragous, 300m (1,000 ft) Condo Towers! If you don't believe me just look at the Toronto diagram page on SSP:

So if Manhattan builds a 300m (1000ft) residential tower it's to satisfy demand, but if downtown Toronto does, its a bubble? Land is expensive so 300m buildings make economic sense from a developer's perspective. The following posted by 'J. Will' clearly indicates that the downtown population is mushrooming. Where are these newcomers supposed to live?



A bubble suggests that prices are out of whack with people's ability to afford them and that supply outstrips demand. First of all, Toronto condos remain far more affordable (vs. incomes) than Manhattan condos, and there is no over supply in the Toronto market. These new towers are all being filled by new residents. They are not sitting empty like buildings in China.

[Onn]

Originally Posted by isaidso

So if Manhattan builds a 300m (1000ft) residential tower it's to satisfy demand, but if downtown Toronto does, its a bubble?

A bubble suggests that prices are out of whack with people's ability to afford them and that supply outstrips demand. First of all, Toronto condos remain far more affordable (vs. incomes) than Manhattan condos, and there is no over supply in the Toronto market. These new towers are all being filled by new residents.

For one New York is the financial capital of the world, the median income is higher than in Toronto. New York City's GDP alone is more than half of Canada's. But it's not national buyers that are buying most of the units in One57, for example, they're international buyers. High end investors that make a lot of money in real estate in New York and London. I don't think Toronto caters to the same crowd.

New York never has had a high end residential boom like the one its going through, and therefore its probably not just because the city felt like having one. Something else is causing it, which it the international economy. The US economy is strong right now compared to much of the rest of the world, international investors see New York as a good place to invest because they know prices are set to rise.

I don't think you realize that the towers being proposed are the kind of being built in Dubai, they ARE NOT cheap by any means! The higher you go the steeper prices get very quickly. Toronto has a case of bubble mania. Just a year ago most of those towers weren't even being proposed but suddenly there's been a massive explosion. It's a classic bubble scenario. The world has dealt with them before, we know what they look like by now.

[M II A II R II K]

So long as they get topped out and are in the skyline that's all that matters!

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by Onn

Suddenly Toronto has turned into Dubai. Where all the new people are getting the money for such extremly high-end luxury apparements is beyond me. The much hyped about Trump Tower has already had major financial problems.

Toronto's unemployment rate stays consistently in the 7-8% range despite the population rising by roughly 100,000/year. The reality is that Toronto is a job creating machine; it has to be to keep the rate from going up.

Where are these people getting the money? Most newcomers to Toronto do have a net worth when they arrive. They buy property with their own money and finance the rest. It's not like these people are all penniless refugees.

Another myth is that all these condos are luxury. The vast majority are mass market buildings in the $300,000 - $600,000 range. A dual income couple with a $100,000 down payment can easily afford a $600,000 unit. Do the math!

[dennis1]

Originally Posted by isaidso

So if Manhattan builds a 300m (1000ft) residential tower it's to satisfy demand, but if downtown Toronto does, its a bubble? Land is expensive so 300m buildings make economic sense from a developer's perspective. The following posted by 'J. Will' clearly indicates that the downtown population is mushrooming. Where are these newcomers supposed to live?



A bubble suggests that prices are out of whack with people's ability to afford them and that supply outstrips demand. First of all, Toronto condos remain far more affordable (vs. incomes) than Manhattan condos, and there is no over supply in the Toronto market. These new towers are all being filled by new residents. They are not sitting empty like buildings in China.

It's a bubble a huge one. Toronto has jobs but the condos are just too expensive

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by Onn

For one New York is the financial capital of the world, the median income is higher than in Toronto. New York City's GDP alone is more than half of Canada's. But it's not national buyers that are buying most of the units in One57, for example, they're international buyers. High end investors that make a lot of money in real estate in New York and London. I don't think Toronto caters to the same crowd.

You would be wrong. Not only is Toronto an emerging global financial centre, but its also an emerging global city for the world's wealthy. You just have to walk around town to notice how many of the world's wealthy are now viewing Toronto as a city they need to be in.

Originally Posted by Onn

The higher you go the steeper prices get very quickly.

Perhaps you should take a closer look at the prices of condos in these 70 floor buildings. Many of them do have million dollar units on the top floors, but the vast majority of units are priced for the mass market.

Those high end units make up perhaps 5% of the units being built.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by dennis1

Toronto has jobs but the condos are just too expensive

How is $300,000 - $400,000 too expensive? You put $80,000 down and have a $220,000 - $320,000 mortgage. That works out to $1200-$1800/month in mortgage payments. With median family income in the $70,000-$80,000 range, a condo purchase is very affordable.

I bet mortgages eat up a similar % of income in Manhattan and London.


http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...il107a-eng.htm

[Onn]

Originally Posted by isaidso

Toronto's unemployment rate stays consistently in the 7-8% range despite the population rising by roughly 100,000/year. The reality is that Toronto is a job creating machine; it has to be to keep the rate from going up.

Where are these people getting the money? Most newcomers to Toronto do have a net worth when they arrive. They buy property with their own money and finance the rest. It's not like these people are all penniless refugees.

Another myth is that all these condos are luxury. The vast majority are mass market buildings in the $300,000 - $600,000 range. A dual income couple with a $100,000 down payment can easily afford a $600,000 unit. Do the math!

There is a difference between jobs and high paying jobs, nothing I've seen says Canada is suddenly pumping out thousands of high paying jobs (in technology, energy, medicine, entertainment...) I'm talking about people willing to spend millions of dollars on real estate. That's what they would be paying in New York for similar units. In fact most of New York's highest end real estate wouldn't even show up on a skyscraper chart, they're post-war buildings. That has been what a lot of New York's current boom has consisted of. New York's market could very much be overshooting its mark as well, but there are special circumstances causing it too. Many of New York's hot projects (proposed or being built) we're abandoned during the 2008 crash.

Toronto's new Trump Tower has already hit the skids, and if all the projects proposed on the chart were actually built this would be 8th tallest tower in Toronto despite it being a near supertall. http://www.businessinsider.com/toron...-chaos-2012-11

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by Onn

There is a difference between jobs and high paying jobs, nothing I've seen says Canada is suddenly pumping out thousands of high paying jobs (in technology, energy, medicine, entertainment...) I'm talking about people willing to spend millions of dollars on real estate.

Tornoto's new Trump Tower has already hit the skids, and if all the projects proposed on the chart were actually built that would be 8th tallest tower in Toronto despite it being a near supertall.

Why do you keep harping on the need for high paying jobs when the the vast majority of units built in Toronto are mid market? Trump isn't doing well, but 1 building out of 150+ built does not make a bubble, it means that 1 building has not met expectations.

[Onn]

Originally Posted by isaidso

Why do you keep harping on the need for high paying jobs when the the vast majority of units built in Toronto are mid market? Trump isn't doing well, but 1 building out of 150+ built does not make a bubble, it means that 1 building has not met expectations.

But Trump should be a pretty good bellwether for the rest of the market. You know its going to be high quality, its internationally well known, you know what your getting. If Trump can't sell in a high end market who can?

I'm not trying to downplay Toronto but its probably good to prepare yourself because the bottom will one day fall out of the market, just like it did in the US. When that happens other terrible things start happening. Canada is by no means alone in this either, there are many other countries around the world with the same problem. Whether is one massive bubble waiting to pop or a series of smaller bubbles is still to be determined.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by Onn

But Trump should be a pretty good bellwether for the rest of the market. You know its going to be high quality, its internationally well known. If Trump can't sell in a high end market who can?

Ritz-Carlton, Shangri-La, and Four Seasons, that's who. Trump was always going to be the weakest of the four 5 star properties going up. As expected, the other 3 got snapped up, and Trump was left picking up the scraps. Trump doesn't have the same cache in Canada as those other 3 brands.

Originally Posted by Onn

I'm not trying to downplay Toronto but its probably good to prepare yourself because the bottom will one day fall out of the market, just like it did in the US. When that happens other terrible things start happening. Canada is by no means alone in this either, there are many other countries around the world with the same problem. Whether is one massive bubble waiting to pop or a serious of smaller bubbles is still to be determined.

Trust me, there's no one with a keener interest in the warning signs that a Toronto property owner. Talk of an over heated market has been front and centre in the Toronto and national press for years. We've hammered the issue to death, had experts look at it from every conceivable angle, and the conclusion has been that we just don't know.

What has happened is that the Bank of Canada let some air out of the market by making a mortgage harder to get. Sales did decline immediately after that, but prices held and have held for a year now.

Condos still come to market, and condos continue to sell. Torontonians are concerned, but for every person that gives evidence about impending doom, there seems to be concrete data supporting the construction boom.

Is there a bubble? I don't know, but I'm confident that it's being managed in a competent and vigilant manner. If there's one area I have confidence its in the nation's financial management. Canada has a reputation for financial conservatism and good regulation.

[Onn]

Originally Posted by isaidso

Ritz-Carlton, Shangri-La, and Four Seasons, that's who. Trump was always going to be the weakest of the four 5 star properties going up. As expected, the other 3 got snapped up, and Trump was left picking up the scraps. Trump doesn't have the same cache in Canada as those other 3 brands.

Trump didn't do as well as expected in Chicago either, before everything crashed. Chicago lost 3 or 4 major residential propsals after that, including the Spire. Again, its an internationally well known brand. There was a lot of hype over that project in Canada. Some other projects may have done better but they're weren't as tall and probably offered better prices.

Trust me, there's no one with a keener interest in the warning signs that a Toronto property owner. Talk of an over heated market has been front and centre in the Toronto and national press for years. We've hammered the issue to death, had experts look at it from every conceivable angle, and the conclusion has been that we just don't know.

What has happened is that the Bank of Canada let some air out of the market by making a mortgage harder to get. Sales did decline immediately after that, but prices held and have held for a year now.

Condos still come to market, and condos continue to sell. Torontonians are concerned, but for every person that gives evidence about impending doom, there seems to be concrete data supporting the construction boom.

Canada's boom has gone on for 10 years, it may have more room to run. Often property crashes aren't expected. Very few in the US said the market was going to crash before it did. If the bubble doesn't pop by itself it could be pricked by another economic crisis somewhere else in the world.