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Old Posted Jul 8, 2009, 2:22 AM
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UrbanMelb UrbanMelb is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Melbourne
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Capital City Growth

Here is a run through current population projections. I was inspired to do this when I was reading through previous posts. I kind of got the impression that people were expecting Brisbane to outgrow Sydney and Melbourne which I do not beleive to be the case.

Between 2006-2007, the two cities with the highest percentage growth rates were Darwin and Perth - 2.6% and 2.3% respectively. [1]

However, growth rates can be deceiving. Between 2006-2007, the two cities with the largest population growth in terms of numbers were Melbourne and Sydney - 61,700 and 52,000 respectively. [2]

In relation to any capital city outgrowing another, this is not likely based on ABS projections up until 2056. The only projection of any city outgrowing another was Melbourne outgrowing Sydney by a very small number. In this particular projection the populations of the major capital cities in 2056 would be:
Melbourne - close to 8 million
Sydney - 7.6 million
Brisbane - close to 5 million
Perth - 4.2 million
Adelaide - 1.8 million [3]

I would also like to mention, current population growth rates in Melbourne, according to leading real estate companies who like to project future household demand, have advised Melbourne is now growing by 70,000 annually. [4] This is going to mean a lot of planning is going to be required to house such a large influx of people. I don't know if anyone has been to Melbourne in the last few years but you eventually become used to all the cranes that line the skyline not just in the CBD, but in activity centres located throughout metropolitan Melbourne. It's really exciting to see my hometown grow so fast.
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