Atlanta's journey toward true urbanization

[edale]

Originally Posted by Crawford

So the detailed NY Times map of tract-level Dem-GOP voting patterns, showing Buckhead as blue, is inaccurate, apparently because "you're on the ground here"....

The fact is that Buckhead, like basically all of Atlanta, excepting the exurbs, is now blue or blueish. Any secession talk is likely a disgruntled, shrinking share of the local electorate.

Dude...did you even look at the map you linked to? It clearly shows multiple red precincts in Buckhead! One precinct was Trump +15 and and other +17! Overall, I'd say the area is purpleish more than anything, but there are definitely still pockets of old (white) wealth that is undoubtedly more conservative and out of step with the rest of the city of Atlanta.

I can't figure out to post a screenshot on here, but here's a link to the screenshot I took of Buckhead from your link:
https://imgur.com/a/lLTIiDS

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by edale

Dude...did you even look at the map you linked to? It clearly shows multiple red precincts in Buckhead!

The map shows the Northside of Atlanta, all the way to Alpharetta, as overwhelmingly blue. It looks like Buckhead is basically 2:1 blue overall, so deep blue.

Of course there can be small enclaves that don't follow larger trends. So what? Those enclaves may stand out if you're looking at maps rather than numbers, because land doesn't vote, and red enclaves are sparsely populated.

But even by land, the Northside is overwhelmingly blue, meaning the odds of some alt-right secession push are pretty slim.

[edale]

Originally Posted by Crawford

The map shows the Northside of Atlanta, all the way to Alpharetta, as overwhelmingly blue. It looks like Buckhead is basically 2:1 blue overall, so deep blue.

Of course there can be small enclaves that don't follow larger trends. So what? Those enclaves may stand out if you're looking at maps rather than numbers, because land doesn't vote, and red enclaves are sparsely populated.

But even by land, the Northside is overwhelmingly blue, meaning the odds of some alt-right secession push are pretty slim.

You're not being honest. At all.

And the whole point of this tangent was that a subsection of Buckhead- namely the white, rich, conservative one- was behind this nascent succession movement. This 'enclave', which the voter precinct map clearly shows exists, is the one pushing for succession from Atlanta. They have outsized influence due to their wealth. Not sure why this is hard to figure out, or why you have to pretend that the entire north side of Atlanta is deep blue. Going north from the Buckhead precincts I tried to link to, it's basically purple to slightly red. We're talking Biden +1, +4, Trump +6, +3.5 type of differences. It's a mixed bag, as just about anyone who's been there could confirm. It's not some deep blue area like Chicago or San Francisco.

[skapunkskatedude]

Originally Posted by edale

You're not being honest. At all.

And the whole point of this tangent was that a subsection of Buckhead- namely the white, rich, conservative one- was behind this nascent succession movement. This 'enclave', which the voter precinct map clearly shows exists, is the one pushing for succession from Atlanta. They have outsized influence due to their wealth. Not sure why this is hard to figure out, or why you have to pretend that the entire north side of Atlanta is deep blue. Going north from the Buckhead precincts I tried to link to, it's basically purple to slightly red. We're talking Biden +1, +4, Trump +6, +3.5 type of differences. It's a mixed bag, as just about anyone who's been there could confirm. It's not some deep blue area like Chicago or San Francisco.

Man, I literally did all of this maths what, like 4 posts ago. Those areas were red by an average of 127 votes or 633 total. Those areas are some of the least populated in Buckhead, and even those areas are more purple than blue. And that’s only 12 percent of the vote share if Buckhead. Again, look back to my previous post, Buckhead is VERY blue. And unless only rich people get to vote, their being wealthy has little to do with a secessionist movement because it won’t happen without a vote of the residents.

This thread is mental.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by edale

You're not being honest. At all.

This silly discussion is a good metaphor for our populist age. People can't even agree on objective reality. Please take your alternative facts elsewhere.

Buckhead is a blue geography under any definition. 2:1 blue is deep blue; much bluer than Alabama is red. Therefore, the odds of an Buckhead-based alt-right secession movement are exceedingly slim; slimmer than a Governor AOC in Alabama.

[edale]

Originally Posted by skapunkskatedude

Man, I literally did all of this maths what, like 4 posts ago. Those areas were red by an average of 127 votes or 633 total. Those areas are some of the least populated in Buckhead, and even those areas are more purple than blue. And that’s only 12 percent of the vote share if Buckhead. Again, look back to my previous post, Buckhead is VERY blue. And unless only rich people get to vote, their being wealthy has little to do with a secessionist movement because it won’t happen without a vote of the residents.

This thread is mental.

Uh, nothing I said disagrees with you or your 'maths'

The area from Buckhead up to Alpharetta is a pretty 'purple' area. There are some heavy blue pockets, presumably aligning closely with the racial demographics of the area, but there are also several red leaning districts. We're clouded by our desire to see things as a binary. It's not overwhelmingly blue, like the south and east sides of the ATL area are, but a mixed bag.

And the wealth of the secessionist crowd certainly matters and gives them outsized political influence. Even if they don't have the numbers to actually pass a secession ballot measure, the fact that they're wealthy gets them the ear of state politicians, the media, etc. If it was a small group of poor people wanting to secede, do you think we'd ever hear about it? Their wealth also matters because, as others have noted, if Buckhead was to secede from ATL, it would be a huge financial blow for Atlanta. I agree that any movement to secession will probably go nowhere, and is reflective of a disgruntled minority. But it's not like it's an entirely foreign concept. Why do you think the City of Beverly Hills exists entirely surrounded by the City of LA (and WeHo)?

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by edale

Uh, nothing I said disagrees with you or your 'maths'

The area from Buckhead up to Alpharetta is a pretty 'purple' area.

Fakenews. The entire Northside is blue.

Using your illogic, there is basically no such thing as a blue or red area over large geographies.

Arkansas wouldn't be red and California wouldn't be blue. Neither are are blue/red as Buckhead is blue. You're seriously attempting to argue that a bluer geography than California (arguably the bluest major state) isn't blue.

[skapunkskatedude]

Originally Posted by edale

Uh, nothing I said disagrees with you or your 'maths'

The area from Buckhead up to Alpharetta is a pretty 'purple' area. There are some heavy blue pockets, presumably aligning closely with the racial demographics of the area, but there are also several red leaning districts. We're clouded by our desire to see things as a binary. It's not overwhelmingly blue, like the south and east sides of the ATL area are, but a mixed bag.

And the wealth of the secessionist crowd certainly matters and gives them outsized political influence. Even if they don't have the numbers to actually pass a secession ballot measure, the fact that they're wealthy gets them the ear of state politicians, the media, etc. If it was a small group of poor people wanting to secede, do you think we'd ever hear about it? Their wealth also matters because, as others have noted, if Buckhead was to secede from ATL, it would be a huge financial blow for Atlanta. I agree that any movement to secession will probably go nowhere, and is reflective of a disgruntled minority. But it's not like it's an entirely foreign concept. Why do you think the City of Beverly Hills exists entirely surrounded by the City of LA (and WeHo)?

Ok, so first, lets talk about Buckhead and only Buckhead. Alpharetta, Sandy Springs, Cobb County, Marietta, etc, aren't about to cause Buckhead to secede. So let's at least talk about what we're actually talking about otherwise whats the point. Buckhead went 63% blue. Thats a 26 point swing. That's not "purple," that's bright blue. Out of 29 Buckhead precincts, 5 went red, representing 12% of Buckhead.

So yeah, the wealthy population (of which the proportion of the population is diminishing as more and more density builds up in the areas that aren't mansions) might have more clout, but i've been here long enough to remember the last time they tried to secede. And where did it go? Absolutely nowhere. And now, at a time when they have even less influence, it's supposed to be more of a threat? And lets say they do manage to cross all the other hurdles and get it on the ballot, is there a belief that 10,000 of those people that voted blue are now going to vote for secession (all while not a single one of those that voted red will vote to stay?).

I mean, i'm pretty good with statistics and data. And i keep seeing people calling other people liars and saying they aren't being honest, and i'm just flabbergasted. The data is pretty damn clear; Buckhead, as a district, is very blue. Like, even if it did secede, it would still be a very blue city (which, as it turns out, is why it wont secede). It might not be Atlanta blue, but it would still be one of the most blue cities in Georgia.

So i don't even understand what's going on. Like, there's objective data to work off here, and it's pretty clear. And i work the numbers and show the work, and then, what, it's wrong? I mean, i feel like i'm taking crazy pills. Next i'll be told Alabama is a liberal utopia because Birmingham voted mostly blue.

[edale]

Just so we're clear here, this is what I'm looking at. The red precincts in the bottom of this image are the red Buckhead precincts. I'm sorry, but this doesn't look to be a bright blue area. To the south of here, absolutely. But Crawford said Buckhead to Alpharetta is all deep blue. The map shows that's just not correct.



Most of these precincts are pretty damn purple. There is more blue than red, yes. But it's a lot of light red and light blue in this map. 54%/46% and 48%/51% type of splits.


Compare the Buckhead area with the areas to the south. That is a true deep blue area, and it's quite clear that the Buckhead area (and points north) is more conservative than other parts of the city of Atlanta. And, given that, it's not completely outlandish that a minority of this community might feel animosity toward the city. I truly don't know why this got so heated or controversial. I'm not peddling 'fake news', I'm looking at the map you fucking provided.

[Tuckerman]

[QUOTE=skapunkskatedude;9305616]Ok, so first, lets talk about Buckhead and only Buckhead. Alpharetta, Sandy Springs, Cobb County, Marietta, etc, aren't about to cause Buckhead to secede. So let's at least talk about what we're actually talking about otherwise whats the point. Buckhead went 63% blue. Thats a 26 point swing. That's not "purple," that's bright blue. Out of 29 Buckhead precincts, 5 went red, representing 12% of Buckhead.

I concur with your observations. Even though I am now retired, I was head of a major data gathering section of CDC and taught and did research in social-statistics at University for many years. Your interpretation of the Buckhead data is accurate. Buckhead has many more components than just the super mansions in the NW part. I know quite a few of those NW "Buckheadians" and they are all left leaning democrats.

[atlantaguy]

Originally Posted by Crawford

The map shows the Northside of Atlanta, all the way to Alpharetta, as overwhelmingly blue. It looks like Buckhead is basically 2:1 blue overall, so deep blue.

Of course there can be small enclaves that don't follow larger trends. So what? Those enclaves may stand out if you're looking at maps rather than numbers, because land doesn't vote, and red enclaves are sparsely populated.

But even by land, the Northside is overwhelmingly blue, meaning the odds of some alt-right secession push are pretty slim.

So I take it that the bolded is your way of conceding that you were wrong on Buckhead not having any Republican Precincts?

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by edale

Compare the Buckhead area with the areas to the south.

Why? So we can further obfuscate to push a fake narrative?

No one is shocked that a rich area of boomer whites is notably less blue than 95% black working class neighborhoods in South Atlanta. Who cares? The fact is that Buckhead is deep blue, and the premise (an alt-right secession movement succeeding in a deep blue area) is nonsense. No one claimed that Buckhead is the bluest area conceivable.

[Gordo]

this thread is hilarious

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by atlantaguy

So I take it that the bolded is your way of conceding that you were wrong on Buckhead not having any Republican Precincts?

No, because no one made such a (completely irrelevant) claim.

The only claim was that North Atlanta was solid blue all the way to Alpharetta, which is indisputable. That doesn't mean every single person from Five Points to Alpharetta votes Dem, obviously.

[JManc]

Ok...enough with this dumpster fire.