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  #81  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2020, 1:09 AM
canucklehead2 canucklehead2 is offline
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Induced demand much? You'll NEVER be able to build your way to clear roads dude...
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  #82  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2020, 1:10 AM
canucklehead2 canucklehead2 is offline
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Anyone who thinks adding more lanes will solve traffic woes needs to go back to school or at least read a bloody urban planning book...
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  #83  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2020, 1:19 AM
milomilo milomilo is offline
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So, what, we should delete all the roads we built then, since your logic is that more roads is always bad, therefore less roads must always be good, correct?

Will I get a rational answer, or a hissy fit? I can't wait.
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  #84  
Old Posted Nov 9, 2020, 7:51 PM
Gat-Train Gat-Train is offline
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Originally Posted by milomilo View Post
$600M for rail to Banff is as believable as 42km of Green Line for $4.5B, and $20B of rail likely won't get as much benefit country wide as that made up subsidy number for roads did, if it isn't spent wisely.
I think for the most part it uses existing track, so the money would only be needed for track upgrades, signals, stations and the rolling stock.
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  #85  
Old Posted Nov 9, 2020, 7:57 PM
MalcolmTucker MalcolmTucker is offline
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Originally Posted by Gat-Train View Post
I think for the most part it uses existing track, so the money would only be needed for track upgrades, signals, stations and the rolling stock.
No, the project can not operate using existing track - it involves twinning and selective tripling of the track between Calgary and Banff. This is the CPR mainline to the coast, and is effectively at capacity with freight. It cannot accommodate a useful service without major track works.
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  #86  
Old Posted Nov 9, 2020, 8:43 PM
milomilo milomilo is offline
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Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker View Post
No, the project can not operate using existing track - it involves twinning and selective tripling of the track between Calgary and Banff. This is the CPR mainline to the coast, and is effectively at capacity with freight. It cannot accommodate a useful service without major track works.
Yip. If all that costs $600M, or double that even, I'll eat my hat.

Was there a timeframe given for that CIB study? Until that's out, this topic of conversation won't have much to talk about.
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  #87  
Old Posted Nov 9, 2020, 8:55 PM
MalcolmTucker MalcolmTucker is offline
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Originally Posted by milomilo View Post
Yip. If all that costs $600M, or double that even, I'll eat my hat.

Was there a timeframe given for that CIB study? Until that's out, this topic of conversation won't have much to talk about.
No timeline. Since it is a scope (airport or no), engineering and operations, option analysis, and negotiation with CPR (a given), I'd bet at least 18 months. Then if results are positive, there would be an environmental assessment, and conclusion of duty to consult - another 12 months.

On the plus side, the feds are also doing a long term plan for transportation in Banff National Park, which will hopefully produce some guidance for navigating the tradeoffs between different modes versus nature which has stymied work around gondolas around the Banff townsite/immediate environs itself.

If everything works out positively, I could see an opening in 2026, 2027, coinciding roughly with the opening of Calgary's new convention centre. I think the potential for creating a package offering (even if for most convention goers it is an illusion) is quite compelling from an economic development perspective.

I also agree the costs are on the low side, as it used standard metrics for the cost of work needed, not super detailed work, but I remain hopeful it is within 50% or so for the Banff-Calgary segment. I have little idea what the Calgary-Calgary Airport segment would look like cost wise, but direct Calgary Airport-Banff trips certainly would have significant value, as would airport-downtown trips.

With a long lasting asset like rail being financed, and the infrastructure remaining in private hands, the numbers for the economic case can get all wonky, since you don't need to pay off the asset in 30 years. Think REM in Montreal more than Canada Line in Vancouver. Plus the line would provide significant value for the CPR, so you don't need to try to cover all the costs due to cross subsidization from freight potentially.

Last edited by MalcolmTucker; Nov 9, 2020 at 9:12 PM.
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  #88  
Old Posted Nov 12, 2020, 6:03 AM
dmuzika dmuzika is offline
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I think the author might have had a typo, the proposed downtown station is near "the Green Line station near 9 Ave SE & 4 St SW"? Is he referring to the station near 9 ave SE & 4 St SE (near the National Music Centre, Green Line station is a block south) or 9 Ave SW & 4 St SW? Unless you're along Centre, you can't have SE & SW streets intersect. I don't think there would be two stations downtown?
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  #89  
Old Posted Nov 12, 2020, 3:58 PM
MalcolmTucker MalcolmTucker is offline
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Originally Posted by dmuzika View Post
I think the author might have had a typo, the proposed downtown station is near "the Green Line station near 9 Ave SE & 4 St SW"? Is he referring to the station near 9 ave SE & 4 St SE (near the National Music Centre, Green Line station is a block south) or 9 Ave SW & 4 St SW? Unless you're along Centre, you can't have SE & SW streets intersect. I don't think there would be two stations downtown?
There will be one, but the question is where makes sense. The province owns a good sized parcel land near 10th Ave and 4th St SE as a 'keeping the options open potential station' for high speed rail. There is of course the old intercity rail station at Centre Street (which would require cooperation with Aspen Properties), and the terminal which previously was used for the Royal Canadian Pacific between 2nd St and 1st St SW.

Adding in airport service complicates things a bit if you want through service to Banff and terminating services.
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  #90  
Old Posted Nov 12, 2020, 4:26 PM
milomilo milomilo is offline
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There's space at 4st SE and it probably is the only viable location, but in fairness it's not a great location, being far away from downtown, and the Green Line does not provide very good connectivity.
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  #91  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2020, 8:12 PM
MalcolmTucker MalcolmTucker is offline
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  #92  
Old Posted Nov 22, 2020, 5:53 PM
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Ugh, pay wall.
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  #93  
Old Posted Jun 25, 2021, 3:10 PM
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Okay everyone, close it up, shut this thread down and go home. Everything is taken care of!

Canadian hyperloop company says ultra-high-speed travel between Calgary and Edmonton is feasible

So we don't need rail, the hyperloop will save us all.
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  #94  
Old Posted Jun 26, 2021, 1:42 AM
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itom 987 itom 987 is offline
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The 22 billion dollar price tag makes the project not viable no matter what way you look at it.
Shame on all the dumbasses that think this project is a good idea.
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  #95  
Old Posted Jun 26, 2021, 5:59 PM
MalcolmTucker MalcolmTucker is offline
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Originally Posted by itom 987 View Post
The 22 billion dollar price tag makes the project not viable no matter what way you look at it.
Shame on all the dumbasses that think this project is a good idea.
If they actually think the customers are there, at 7.5 million passengers a year, and 150,000 tonnes of cargo at $6250 a tonne, their NPV is positive at 8.7% discount rate (basically their profit + financing costs) as the $22 billion includes financing as the hard costs are $17 billion.



Now that ridership estimate is high, and assumes much more ridership due to higher speed than the province has estimated for HSR or MagLev.


Maglev (500 kph) was predicted at 5.8 million, HSR (320 kph) at 4.1 million. So would 1000 kph juice the numbers further?


Plus they're counting on a lot of cargo - 60% of revenues! I think that is where their model falls apart, it is far less credible than the passenger side.



All the being said - if they can raise the money and build it, should the government step in to stop investors from pissing their money away?
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  #96  
Old Posted Jun 26, 2021, 6:47 PM
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Edmonton should step in and prevent them from building a white elephant scar within the city. There is absolutely zero mention of what the maintenance budget might be like. They are essentially building the world's longest bridge between Edmonton and Calgary. A major catastrophe can happen if any of those supports were to shift ever so slightly. This is guaranteed to happen given our extreme climate.
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  #97  
Old Posted Jun 26, 2021, 6:56 PM
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Even if they give allowances for shifting, that slight jolt on the ride will turn passengers away.
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  #98  
Old Posted Jun 26, 2021, 10:52 PM
Jaspertf Jaspertf is offline
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Hyperloop/Transpod
In layman's terms what is Hyperloop/Transpod? It is an object travelling at high speed in a vacuum. Why a vacuum? A vacuum has little to no air, air creates resistance (aerodynamic drag), if there is no air there is no drag and objects can travel at much higher speeds. Think of space travel.
However when it comes to passengers, we need air to breathe, so for passengers Hyperloop/Transpod becomes a pressurized vehicle travelling in a vacuum tube.
What is an object that operates with an interior pressure greater than the exterior? An aeroplane.
What is an object that operates with an interior pressure less than the exterior? A submarine.
What is the fastest form of propulsion? Electro-magnetic.
So an aeroplane propelled by mag-lev, inside a submarine.
As temperatures get colder, all metals and materials become more brittle and susceptible to fracturing. Over the past winter both CP and CN have been operating their trains at slow speeds to prevent breaking rails, causing the grain backlog. Ski hills will shutdown chair lifts below -20degC, to prevent cables snapping.
Also the temperature expansion coefficient of steel pipes per degree change of temperature is a constant 14x10-6 m/mdegC. The distance between Calgary and Edmonton is approx. 300km, the temperature variation over 1 year can go from +35 in summer to -40 in winter, a 75 degC temperature change. Over the course of a year in Alberta, an exposed carbon steel pipe from Calgary to Edmonton will expand/contract 135 meters.
All materials expand and contract with temperature changes:
Fiberglass would expand/contract 230m over 300km.
PVC would expand/contract 675m over 300km.
CPVC would expand/contract 855m over 300km.
The temperature in the Prairies gets below -40degC in the winter. The frost level in Alberta is considered to be 3.0m, all water utilities are buried below 3m in the ground to prevent freezing.
To work effectively in Alberta, Hyperloop/Transpod would have to be underground. Also with a speed of 1000kph it would have to be dead straight, which can easily be achieved with tunnelling.
So will Transpod cost CAD6billion between Calgary and Edmonton?
A simple train tunnel costs CAD20million per km, Crossrail is costing more. A Transpod tunnel would also need to be sealed in order to maintain a vacuum, and this does not include the mag-lev propulsion technology or the construction of the terminals and pods.
For a quick relevant example, Tokyo to Nagoya mag-lev. The direct route is 286km with the majority in a tunnel, it is currently estimated at JPY5.1Trillion or CAD 60 Billion.

Travelling in Hyperloop/Transpod
A typical person can handle 5g vertical and 20g horizontal for less than 10 seconds, in these situations the typical person is heavily restrained in the seat. Comfortable acceleration, where the unrestrained typical person does not fall over, is less than 1m/s/s or 0.1g.
• Passenger aircraft acceleration is 1.5m/s/s
• Supercar acceleration is approx. 40m/s/s
Hyperloop/Transpod is being sold as a cross between a passenger aircraft and a passenger train, the typical person is able to wander the cabin unrestrained, which means vertical and horizontal acceleration must be 1m/s/s or less. With a top speed of 1000km/h, acceleration/decceleration of the capsule will take approx. 4.5 mins and cover a distance of approx. 36km, the remaining 223km between Calgary and Edmonton will take approx. 14 mins. Additional stops would add 15 mins depending on re-pressurizing and de-pressurizing rates. In order to be able to wander the cabin any gradient change would need to be less than 0.1%, and the curve radius greater than 50km.

Result
Hyperloop/Transpod is a fantastic idea and a great use of technology, but it will be a massive white elephant for Alberta, costing more than CAD60 Billion. The combined population of Tokyo and Nagoya is 47 million, the population of Alberta is less than 4.5 million. The best place for this technology in North America is in the North East Corridor between Washington DC and New York.
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  #99  
Old Posted Aug 11, 2021, 9:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaspertf View Post
Hyperloop/Transpod
In layman's terms what is Hyperloop/Transpod? It is an object travelling at high speed in a vacuum. Why a vacuum? A vacuum has little to no air, air creates resistance (aerodynamic drag), if there is no air there is no drag and objects can travel at much higher speeds. Think of space travel.
However when it comes to passengers, we need air to breathe, so for passengers Hyperloop/Transpod becomes a pressurized vehicle travelling in a vacuum tube.
What is an object that operates with an interior pressure greater than the exterior? An aeroplane.
What is an object that operates with an interior pressure less than the exterior? A submarine.
What is the fastest form of propulsion? Electro-magnetic.
So an aeroplane propelled by mag-lev, inside a submarine.
As temperatures get colder, all metals and materials become more brittle and susceptible to fracturing. Over the past winter both CP and CN have been operating their trains at slow speeds to prevent breaking rails, causing the grain backlog. Ski hills will shutdown chair lifts below -20degC, to prevent cables snapping.
Also the temperature expansion coefficient of steel pipes per degree change of temperature is a constant 14x10-6 m/mdegC. The distance between Calgary and Edmonton is approx. 300km, the temperature variation over 1 year can go from +35 in summer to -40 in winter, a 75 degC temperature change. Over the course of a year in Alberta, an exposed carbon steel pipe from Calgary to Edmonton will expand/contract 135 meters.
All materials expand and contract with temperature changes:
Fiberglass would expand/contract 230m over 300km.
PVC would expand/contract 675m over 300km.
CPVC would expand/contract 855m over 300km.
The temperature in the Prairies gets below -40degC in the winter. The frost level in Alberta is considered to be 3.0m, all water utilities are buried below 3m in the ground to prevent freezing.
To work effectively in Alberta, Hyperloop/Transpod would have to be underground. Also with a speed of 1000kph it would have to be dead straight, which can easily be achieved with tunnelling.
So will Transpod cost CAD6billion between Calgary and Edmonton?
A simple train tunnel costs CAD20million per km, Crossrail is costing more. A Transpod tunnel would also need to be sealed in order to maintain a vacuum, and this does not include the mag-lev propulsion technology or the construction of the terminals and pods.
For a quick relevant example, Tokyo to Nagoya mag-lev. The direct route is 286km with the majority in a tunnel, it is currently estimated at JPY5.1Trillion or CAD 60 Billion.

Travelling in Hyperloop/Transpod
A typical person can handle 5g vertical and 20g horizontal for less than 10 seconds, in these situations the typical person is heavily restrained in the seat. Comfortable acceleration, where the unrestrained typical person does not fall over, is less than 1m/s/s or 0.1g.
• Passenger aircraft acceleration is 1.5m/s/s
• Supercar acceleration is approx. 40m/s/s
Hyperloop/Transpod is being sold as a cross between a passenger aircraft and a passenger train, the typical person is able to wander the cabin unrestrained, which means vertical and horizontal acceleration must be 1m/s/s or less. With a top speed of 1000km/h, acceleration/decceleration of the capsule will take approx. 4.5 mins and cover a distance of approx. 36km, the remaining 223km between Calgary and Edmonton will take approx. 14 mins. Additional stops would add 15 mins depending on re-pressurizing and de-pressurizing rates. In order to be able to wander the cabin any gradient change would need to be less than 0.1%, and the curve radius greater than 50km.

Result
Hyperloop/Transpod is a fantastic idea and a great use of technology, but it will be a massive white elephant for Alberta, costing more than CAD60 Billion. The combined population of Tokyo and Nagoya is 47 million, the population of Alberta is less than 4.5 million. The best place for this technology in North America is in the North East Corridor between Washington DC and New York.
Some good points you made regarding the challenges of thermal expansion, acceleration and cost. But I will add some more.

What happens when the pumps fail or there's a leak? Air rushes in and your pod smashes into a wall of air, and when travelling at 1000kph it's like hitting concrete. This doesn't even address the issue of maintenance, where you'd have to shut down the line, evacuate the pods, repressurize the tube, do trackwork etc, then depressurize again. Where does this maintenance window fit in? What if the power fails or there's some other emergency in which the pod must stop and be evacuated? There are so many questions that the pushers of this product still won't answer. So then why do you say this is a fantastic(ally stupid) idea?

This is just another Elon Musk vaporware to delay the development of actual, proven solutions like high speed rail.
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  #100  
Old Posted Oct 28, 2021, 8:19 PM
canucklehead2 canucklehead2 is offline
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Nice that we saw the Prairie Link proposal come up but it's been scant on details since this summers launch... $9B price tag seems reasonable but I want to know more deets which so far haven't been forthcoming... Granted the huge cost of California HSR that wouldn't buy much however under a P3 with limited ability for all encompassing "scope creep" that might be a different story. REM in Montreal and the Vancouver Canada Line seem to be doing well as similarly privatized public projects are working. https://www.prairielink.ca/
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