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  #1  
Old Posted Jun 28, 2020, 3:25 PM
DCReid DCReid is offline
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New York's Population Drain Is Philadelphia's Gain

From: BisNow.com


"...Estimates differ as to just how many New Yorkers decamp to Philadelphia each year, but over the past decade, more have moved south than north. According to a Baruch College study, between 2011 and 2015, Philadelphia gained nearly 3,000 net migrants from New York. A Census Bureau study pegged the gross New York-to-Philly migrant population in 2015 alone at 27,000. The trend appears to be continuing, and, anecdotally, even accelerating....Traffic to MovetoPhilly.com, a website run by Philadelphia residential/commercial real estate agent Christopher Plant, is up more than 30% since the pandemic began, mostly from New Yorkers considering a move to Philadelphia, he said...'

Read more at: https://www.bisnow.com/philadelphia/...medium=Browser

Read more at: https://www.bisnow.com/philadelphia/...medium=Browser
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  #2  
Old Posted Jun 28, 2020, 4:24 PM
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The problem with some of these NYC to Philly migration estimates is that you can move from an outer NYC metro suburb to a slightly farther out suburb and end up in the Philadelphia metro (say Bucks County). Not sure if that is what is going on here.

The city of Philadelphia does have a lot of potential to gain from NYC but needs to improve it's city business tax structure in order to really do so. Amtrak improvements and reliability also could go a long way.

From the little I can see, I think a lot of row homes are being bought by NYC real estate investors who are priced out of the market up there and there are certainly a lot of NYC to Philly migrants. Hard to say if it is more than a trickle and makes up for out migrants though.
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  #3  
Old Posted Jun 29, 2020, 3:39 AM
mrnyc mrnyc is offline
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its seems like any nyc or nyc metro population drain is everyone’s gain. is philly actually the biggest or most noteworthy benefactor in either real numbers or relatively speaking? i dk.
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  #4  
Old Posted Jun 29, 2020, 2:22 PM
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We just discovered New Hope a couple of years ago. The drive is nearly half of that to Rhinebeck and other parts of the Hudson Valley north of the city. We're hoping to buy a vacation place in the New Hope area in 3-5 years.
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  #5  
Old Posted Jun 29, 2020, 6:34 PM
Kennedy03 Kennedy03 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DCReid View Post
From: BisNow.com


"...Estimates differ as to just how many New Yorkers decamp to Philadelphia each year, but over the past decade, more have moved south than north. According to a Baruch College study, between 2011 and 2015, Philadelphia gained nearly 3,000 net migrants from New York. A Census Bureau study pegged the gross New York-to-Philly migrant population in 2015 alone at 27,000. The trend appears to be continuing, and, anecdotally, even accelerating....Traffic to MovetoPhilly.com, a website run by Philadelphia residential/commercial real estate agent Christopher Plant, is up more than 30% since the pandemic began, mostly from New Yorkers considering a move to Philadelphia, he said...'

Read more at: https://www.bisnow.com/philadelphia/...medium=Browser

Read more at: https://www.bisnow.com/philadelphia/...medium=Browser
Well that's good for Philly as its population gain this past decade is estimated to be currently flat-to-declining. Plus NYers with $$ will decrease Philly's high poverty rate; another bonus for Philly.
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  #6  
Old Posted Jul 1, 2020, 10:55 PM
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NYC, being a port of entry to the United States has had “drain” for like 100 years now. Why are they looking at that specific period? If NYC’s drain in the 00s, 90s, 80s, 70s, 60s, 50s, 40s, 30s didn’t help Philadelphia, why would it now?
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  #7  
Old Posted Jul 1, 2020, 11:28 PM
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The "drain" is to places like Bucks County, from places like Mercer County. It's the same concept as CT and NJ having a permanent net gain from NY, basically since forever.

This is a misunderstanding of how Census designations work. A cheaper, outer suburban county draws residents from more expensive, closer-in counties. This has probably been true since the commuting era began. It doesn't mean people from Manhattan are moving to Center City, or people in Queens are moving to South Philly; it means that as households age, they generally move in an outward fashion, chasing affordability. Not many 40-yo professionals are moving from Westport to Manhattan, but the reverse is common.
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  #8  
Old Posted Jul 3, 2020, 6:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tdawg View Post
We just discovered New Hope a couple of years ago. The drive is nearly half of that to Rhinebeck and other parts of the Hudson Valley north of the city. We're hoping to buy a vacation place in the New Hope area in 3-5 years.
Now that every gay bar I ever knew in New Hope is gone...it's not quite the same as it used to be but it really is a lovely town. My favorite place to eat is Martine's. Sitting on the river deck in the evening for dinner in the summer is very nice.
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  #9  
Old Posted Jul 3, 2020, 6:24 PM
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Well that's good for Philly as its population gain this past decade is estimated to be currently flat-to-declining. Plus NYers with $$ will decrease Philly's high poverty rate; another bonus for Philly.
Based on the estimate 2019 census...Philadelphia has had a 3.8% increase since 2010. That's huge for a city that was in a 50 year decline.
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  #10  
Old Posted Jul 3, 2020, 6:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YSL View Post
NYC, being a port of entry to the United States has had “drain” for like 100 years now. Why are they looking at that specific period? If NYC’s drain in the 00s, 90s, 80s, 70s, 60s, 50s, 40s, 30s didn’t help Philadelphia, why would it now?
Philadelphia was a different city then...nobody wanted to move here.

Philadelphia suffered for years because the old Republican machine that ran the city up until 1951 didn't take much New Deal money like Robert Moses did and by the time the WW2 was over...the city was still stuck in 1920. The factories were all 19th Century and closing. New Yorkers were not moving to Philly. Even when New York was hitting rock bottom in the 70's...it was still able to steal the spot light from Philly for the Bicentennial. Philly was always years behind New York in trending since WW2...but we have been catching up.
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  #11  
Old Posted Jul 4, 2020, 2:18 AM
jd3189 jd3189 is offline
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I don’t mind Philly growing at NYC’s expense. New York needs to update itself and if less people is the way to do that sufficiently, so be it.

Plus, it’s about time the Northeast becomes more balanced in its population distribution. NYC is by far the largest juggernaut with no competition ( 8 million compared to 1.5 million for Philly and under 1 million for Boston, DC, and Baltimore).

NYC is great and awesome, don’t get me wrong. I was born there and still consider it my first home. But a lot of the city’s problems have to be dealt with and maybe having less people will help, especially with easing demand for the subway so that it can finally be updated.

But in terms of the NE again, the whole area is already the most urban in the country and still has room to grow and densify while still maintaining the wilderness that currently exists. Minor cities and towns in between the major cities can densify even more and gain even more public transportation between them. No need to be ultra centralized to the point in which you can’t take care of yourself anymore.
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  #12  
Old Posted Jul 4, 2020, 3:31 AM
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NYC needs to fix its transit situation and housing affordability issue. Two of the biggest issues before the pandemic, and surely after. Although the pandemic has caused a drop in prices, and the given reduction in overall transit use caused by the lock downs, might just be in the short term. Transit that is.

I just wonder how long it will take the tourism industry to recover. It will be an interesting time going forward.

The city has seen an uptick in crime, but hopefully the numbers will go down once folks start working again as opposed to graffiti and destroying history.

In a way though, its great for Philly. Even some of the nearby cities like Reading, Allentown/Bethlehem, would be nice to see some nice growth there too! Its a very underrated city, but one that offers a solid urban experience.
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  #13  
Old Posted Jul 4, 2020, 3:34 AM
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Just so folks know, the difference in cost of living between NJ/NY and PA is astronomical. So Philly offers a lot! And Eastern PA. A lot more bang for the buck.
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  #14  
Old Posted Jul 6, 2020, 1:32 AM
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Things have a way of balancing out. If the appeal and value proposition of another place is greater, growth will flow there. It's why growth in LA eventually headed to Riverside and then on to Phoenix, Las Vegas, etc. This is no different. If Philadelphia is the beneficiary that's not a bad thing.
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  #15  
Old Posted Jul 6, 2020, 4:11 AM
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Originally Posted by isaidso View Post
Things have a way of balancing out. If the appeal and value proposition of another place is greater, growth will flow there. It's why growth in LA eventually headed to Riverside and then on to Phoenix, Las Vegas, etc. This is no different. If Philadelphia is the beneficiary that's not a bad thing.
That tends to be the mode of operation for a lot of our cities. They eventually reach a slow down or stagnation (some cased decline) and than folks migrate elsewhere (usually, usually, a big time factor of folks migrating are prices).

I wish that wasn't the case. Ideally, it would be nice if "X" city tried to retain folks or some cases, certain states or metros.

I just wish some of our metros would try to keep folks. Try to stabilize if not reduce prices. Would be nice.

WE NEED more housing, period. Take NJ... the amount of units being built... outside of Hudson County, is paltry, very paltry. Hudson, than Essex, than a massive drop in units, WITH MOST being renovations or alterations. In NJ!

We don't do enough to add housing.
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  #16  
Old Posted Jul 6, 2020, 4:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhillyRising View Post
Now that every gay bar I ever knew in New Hope is gone...it's not quite the same as it used to be but it really is a lovely town. My favorite place to eat is Martine's. Sitting on the river deck in the evening for dinner in the summer is very nice.
The town has lost a lot of its charm over the last decade and the traffic on 202 has become horrific. Hopefully someone pushes for a SEPTA extension soon..
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  #17  
Old Posted Jul 7, 2020, 2:53 AM
isaidso isaidso is offline
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Originally Posted by chris08876 View Post
That tends to be the mode of operation for a lot of our cities. They eventually reach a slow down or stagnation (some cased decline) and than folks migrate elsewhere (usually, usually, a big time factor of folks migrating are prices).

I wish that wasn't the case. Ideally, it would be nice if "X" city tried to retain folks or some cases, certain states or metros.

I just wish some of our metros would try to keep folks. Try to stabilize if not reduce prices. Would be nice.

WE NEED more housing, period. Take NJ... the amount of units being built... outside of Hudson County, is paltry, very paltry. Hudson, than Essex, than a massive drop in units, WITH MOST being renovations or alterations. In NJ!

We don't do enough to add housing.
The US usually lets the market decide what happens with few checks and balances in place to guard against negative outcomes. I'm assuming this is no different. Is there no robust system to ensure affordable housing in cities where prices are high? Poorer people just move away? It bears mentioning that Canada hasn't been able to solve our affordable housing crisis either despite building a ton of residential..... alot of which is social housing.

Another thing that baffles me is why more housing isn't built. There's obviously demand so I guess developers feel they can't make money at lower price points?
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  #18  
Old Posted Jul 7, 2020, 3:09 AM
Buckeye Native 001 Buckeye Native 001 is offline
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Why would they build more apartments when they can jack up the price of existing units?
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  #19  
Old Posted Jul 7, 2020, 7:10 PM
mhays mhays is offline
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That's why property owners (apartments, houses) often lobby for less development.

Property developers on the other hand, many of whom aren't long-term holders... And of course renters and new buyers...
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  #20  
Old Posted Jul 7, 2020, 8:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Nexis4Jersey View Post
The town has lost a lot of its charm over the last decade and the traffic on 202 has become horrific. Hopefully someone pushes for a SEPTA extension soon..
It should happen. There are a few towns in PA around Philly that it's criminal SEPTA doesn't service. New Hope, West Chester, Phoenxville and Newtown at THE LEAST should be serviced by SEPTA. BUT, that's probably decades away at this point now at the best due to SEPTA's budget being in a literal free fall currently with everything going on with coronavirus.
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