Americans are moving out of urban counties like never before

[Pedestrian]

Grace O'Donnell and Adriana Belmonte
Thu, April 28, 2022, 7:19 AM

Americans leaving urban counties reached a new high in 2021 as droves of people settled in suburban and exurban counties.

More than two-thirds of large urban counties saw their populations decline, according to a recent report by the Economic Innovation Group (EIG) that used federal statistics. This marked the first time in 50 years that counties with an urban center and more than 250,000 people experienced negative growth as a category.

While some migration patterns had been in effect before the pandemic, COVID-era remote work and delayed immigration accelerated the shift.

“The big key takeaway to me was just how dramatic the effect was in 2021," August Benzow, the lead researcher on the study, told Yahoo Finance.

Rural areas grew in population between 2020 and 2021.



Exurban counties saw the biggest increase across the board, with about 80% gaining population. These counties are defined as areas with "a population smaller than 50,000, at least 25 percent of their population in a large or medium-sized suburb, and must be in a metro with a population of 500,000 or higher" . . . .

Complete article at https://currently.att.yahoo.com/att/...1&guccounter=1

[eschaton]

Like all of these studies, it seems based on the ACS data...which we know was massively off in its predictions for the 2020 census.

I'm really never going to trust ACS data again.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Like all of these studies, it seems based on the ACS data...which we know was massively off in its predictions for the 2020 census.

I'm really never going to trust ACS data again.

burn me once (2000), and you get some side eye from me

burn me twice (2010), again? seriously???

burn me thrice (2020), fuck you, how are you so consistently bad at the one job you're supposed to do?

[dimondpark]

I wish this would be reflected in home prices and rental rates. Home prices are soaring in our urban counties even now, as people are supposedly fleeing.

[mhays]

The data is ancient history. Why is the title in present tense?

My city showed a loss for 2020-21 but apartments and houses are both gangbusters, and have been since not long into Covid, go figure.

[KDD]

This seems misleading. Allegheny is gaining, the surrounding counties are losing population but exactly zero people have visited Fayette County and thought "gee, this sure is urban!"

[Yuri]

Urban counties/cities/central cities had their best decade since ever. For the first time in history they had grown faster than suburban counterparts in countless metro areas.

Article is garbage.

[Pedestrian]

I read a lot of denial but no better data from those most insistent that it’s wrong. Last year is “ancient history”? 2022 isn’t even half over. Of course there’s no data yet. But I do agree it could show a reversal of the trend when it’s available a year from now.

[Steely Dan]

^ it's not denial from me.

It's 3 fucking decades in a row of census estimates being completely off the mark for Chicago.

Why would I start putting stock in them now?


We aren't gonna get "better data" for another 8 years.

[SFBruin]

I think that what's most striking from this data (accuracy questions aside) is how near-universally exurbs appear to be growing.

[iheartthed]

ACS estimates are garbage and I don't take seriously any news article or study that is based on them. We should just start doing a half-decade census but that probably requires a constitutional change.

[mhays]

Originally Posted by Pedestrian

I read a lot of denial but no better data from those most insistent that it’s wrong. Last year is “ancient history”? 2022 isn’t even half over. Of course there’s no data yet. But I do agree it could show a reversal of the trend when it’s available a year from now.

Sure we have data. I can tell you what the apartment vacancy rate was on Friday afternoon for any metro or neighborhood. The residential real estate industry has their measures too. And there's tons of relatively recent data on building permits and construction volumes.

Rule #1 for data is to be skeptical and consider context. Rule #2 is to find good and current data where possible, rather than relying on ancient history. Population data is always a very lagging indicator, mostly useful as history.

Further, do you realize that you're talking about 7/1/20 to 7/1/21? First, that's old. Second, you might recall that COVID-19 was at its heights (how soon people forget...), so a lot of people were obviously living in temporary conditions.

[TWAK]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

ACS estimates are garbage and I don't take seriously any news article or study that is based on them. We should just start doing a half-decade census but that probably requires a constitutional change.

Either that or special censuses for things like major events and that would include stuff like COVID, war, recession, and ect. I moved out of the Bay Area due to cost before all this took place and now the city slickers are moving here too (rural gaining). Rural CA is actually affordable....

[Kenneth]

All this foolishness about where folks are moving and what city is the greatest is truly annoying since every major urban region is pretty much doing the same exact thing. If it had not been for the man made disruption...then all the urban areas would continue growing, including the ones in the great lakes region that were also experiencing growth. Now with all the mass violence and crime spikes occurring in all the major metropolises' who really cares about what spot is growing rapidly when all it does is bring higher costs, traffic and crimes.

[mhays]

Growth doesn't correlate with increased crime rates.

[SFBruin]

Originally Posted by mhays

Growth doesn't correlate with increased crime rates.

Well, technically, if the population drops to 0, then there can be no crime.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by Pedestrian

I read a lot of denial but no better data from those most insistent that it’s wrong. Last year is “ancient history”? 2022 isn’t even half over. Of course there’s no data yet. But I do agree it could show a reversal of the trend when it’s available a year from now.

Better data isn't needed. The issue is that any data from the past two years is basically useless for anything other than analyzing specifically Covid-related statistics.

2020-2021 was the single biggest urban out-migration in American history. But the post-pandemic recovery is now well underway; so taking data from 2021 and presenting it in 2022 as "Americans moving out of cities like never before" is disingenuous. We already know what happened then - what remains to be seen now is whether or not those trends are still at work. This article however, does not answer that question. We'll likely need more than one year's worth of data before we have the answer to that anyway.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

Better data isn't needed. The issue is that any data from the past two years is basically useless for anything other than analyzing specifically Covid-related statistics.

2020-2021 was the single biggest urban out-migration in American history. But the post-pandemic recovery is now well underway; so taking data from 2021 and presenting it in 2022 as "Americans moving out of cities like never before" is disingenuous. We already know what happened then - what remains to be seen now is whether or not those trends are still at work. This article however, does not answer that question. We'll likely need more than one year's worth of data before we have the answer to that anyway.

Good point! Makes a lot of sense.

[chris08876]

The pandemic really just fueled the influx of folks that were slated to move in the future but did so quicker (catalyst). Probably attributed to record low interest rates.

Was just a good time, at one point, to get a home... BEFORE the insane price increases. If you could lock a contract or make a good bid before the issue of prices rising, there was a golden opportunity.

There probally is an element with respect to the price increases in urban areas. Burbs have always been a better a alternative if you want a combo of good schools, more space and not pay the hefty entry pass to some urban cores.

This was just accelerated during the pandemic and even now.

Although there may be a benefit if the housing prices collapse in the long run. Won't be fun for the homeowners but may allow some of our urban areas to a be a little more accessible for the masses.

Prices tend to be the key factor for folks moving (family growth adds to this). Things like crime only act as the accelerant to speed up what eventually would be a move (likewise with schools, things of that nature).

[llamaorama]

I just want to point out that crime is only an "inner city" issue in what I consider the "traditional" big cities like New York and Chicago.

In younger, newer cities in Texas and Florida there are ghetto areas in older suburbs that did not age well. I predict that ongoing gentrification of the core will make such neighborhoods the most prominent concentrations of poverty and crime in these metro areas. These are still in the core urban counties but are not urban. For example, in Houston, a population exodus from an area like Greenspoint caused by demolition of aging rental properties and general craptitude of that area counts against Harris County. But Harris County is so big it even still has farms in one far corner of it. Conversely because Montgomery County is only a fraction of Harris County's size it can grow less in an absolute sense and post big percentage numbers. In reality Greenspoint was developed around 1975-1990. As you go more into the city, the North side of Houston gets nicer the more dense and older it gets until you reach the gentrified core neighborhoods like the Heights.

Also desire for space is misleading. My sister and her family lives in Rockwall which is a kind of upper-middle class, very conservative outer edge suburb of Dallas. Their house they just bought new last year has a very tiny yard and the houses aren't actually that big in terms of square footage. They are the same narrow lot homes they build in every other expensive hot real estate market like outer Toronto or Portland or Florida or whatever just with a regionally appropriate aesthetic. In contrast, if you went into the "hood" areas like Mesquite or East Dallas the houses are all big late 1950s ranches just like from the show King of the Hill, with enormous yards full of trees and everything is very green.