Housing market

[emge]

i hear ya.

good news for me too.. come on, house.

might be putting in an offer after a second look at one in a few days.. we'll see... we'll see...

and to think i thought it wouldn't be that nerve-wracking.

[HackD]

Originally Posted by emge

i hear ya.


good news for me too.. come on, house.

might be putting in an offer after a second look at one in a few days.. we'll see... we'll see...

and to think i thought it wouldn't be that nerve-wracking.

Being a newly moved-in/relocated home buyer in Hamilton a short 18 months ago, it ain't all that bad

Get all your ducks in a row for the pre-approved mortgage first, and everything falls into place before you can say 'Holy $@#! the bank owns me for the next 25 years!'

Hamilton has a lot going for it, the last really 'affordable' area of the GTA/Golden Horseshoe within easy commuting distance of Mississauga. Made the exercise of 'buying in' as a new home owner, a much more pleasant and somewhat less of a nerve-wracking experience to be able to buy in to something i could actually afford on an everyday man's salary.

From time of first house viewing to closing/move-in, 21 days elapsed. I really didn't have the time to get nervous about it.

A 10% fall in value on an unaffordable property in Toronto or Mississauga, is still unaffordable to me, and a lot of other people out there. A 7% fall in my Hamilton property i can live with, and in.

[BrianE]

Originally Posted by emge

i hear ya.

good news for me too.. come on, house.

might be putting in an offer after a second look at one in a few days.. we'll see... we'll see...

and to think i thought it wouldn't be that nerve-wracking.

Uh, I would't buy just yet. If you can live with renting for another year you might want to do that. Buying into the housing market right now would be like jumping onto a roller coaster just as it starts down the first big drop.

If you buy now even with 5% or 10% downpayment you might have negative equity in the house for the next couple of years. The real estate buisness is going to be THAT bad.

[adam]

Any prediction on interest rates over the next couple years?

[FairHamilton]

Originally Posted by BrianE

Uh, I would't buy just yet. If you can live with renting for another year you might want to do that. Buying into the housing market right now would be like jumping onto a roller coaster just as it starts down the first big drop.

If you buy now even with 5% or 10% downpayment you might have negative equity in the house for the next couple of years. The real estate buisness is going to be THAT bad.

I don't believe that, at least not in the lower city market.

Let's all keep in mind that drops in 'prices' are based on the houses sold at a point in time (month of October), not the lowering of price to a specific group houses over time. There is no check in those numbers to evaluate if the homes sold in October were similar or the same as the ones sold in October 2007.

Now for those who want prices to drop further, be careful what you wish for.

With so much of peoples wealth (and for many debt) tied into homes a significant lowering in home prices can quickly translate into a worsening of an already weak economy. That could put an upward cycle on unemployment numbers and downward pressure on wages, and make it tougher to get mortgage approval.

Already variable rates are now ranging at Prime, plus 0.50 to 1.0. In March 2008 the variable rate mortgage we got was Prime. minus 0.70. That can make a big difference in the amount of interest paid especially at the beginning of a 25 year mortgage. These things just make buying a home more difficult.

You'd be better to hope for a flattening of housing prices increases to a consistent healthy level, 3% to 5%.

[FairHamilton]

Originally Posted by adam

Any prediction on interest rates over the next couple years?

No one has a crystal ball, but me having a variable rate mortgage should tell you what I think we'll see at least for the next 2 years.

Since March we've seen a few decreases in the Bank of Canada, and the chartered banks Prime Rate. My weekly mortgage payment today is less than it was 6 months ago. And I expect it to perhaps go a little lower still, before rising to approximately where it started in March 2008. BTW, if I get nervous I can always lock in for the remainder of my term at the fixed rate for the length of time remaining.

But that's just my opinion.

[comadriver]

Originally Posted by BrianE

Uh, I would't buy just yet. If you can live with renting for another year you might want to do that. Buying into the housing market right now would be like jumping onto a roller coaster just as it starts down the first big drop.

If you buy now even with 5% or 10% downpayment you might have negative equity in the house for the next couple of years. The real estate buisness is going to be THAT bad.

It may not be that simple. You have to look at what economists call the opportunity cost. Compare your interest/tax payments and possible price depreciation to the sum of your rental payments over the years. Then look at the upside, both monetary and non-monetary. This decision is a lifestyle change, and should be based on a lot more that just interest rates. Besides, no one ever got rich by playing it safe. When everyone feels good about the market, the prices tend to flatten (at best).

Warren said it best: You have to be scared when everyone is greedy, and greedy when everyone is scared.

Brian, to your point, if someone only has 5% down, unfortunately this may not be the right time to buy, in any market.

[comadriver]

Originally Posted by HackD

Hamilton has a lot going for it, the last really 'affordable' area of the GTA/Golden Horseshoe within easy commuting distance of Mississauga.

HackD, do you commute to Mississauga? I work there too and moving to Hamilton in December. Maybe we can carpool!

[Jon Dalton]

Originally Posted by HackD

Hamilton has a lot going for it, the last really 'affordable' area of the GTA/Golden Horseshoe within easy commuting distance of Mississauga.

Easy commuting distance if you leave at 4:00? When I go to work traffic is backed up to Guelph Line or Walkers.

[Millstone]

Originally Posted by Jon Dalton

Easy commuting distance if you leave at 4:00? When I go to work traffic is backed up to Guelph Line or Walkers.

407

[HackD]

Originally Posted by Jon Dalton

Easy commuting distance if you leave at 4:00? When I go to work traffic is backed up to Guelph Line or Walkers.

Easy, Don't take the Highway!

I commute from Greenhill St./Redhill Valley Expressway to Dorval/QEW in Oakville (ok, not quite Mississauga - though sometimes the commute is extended to Mississauga) daily, leaving at 7:00 in the morning to get to work by ~7:50 am. Very rarely am i late unless i am silly enough to take the highway - either coming to work or going home. QEW + North Shore Blvd off ramp + Lakeshore Rd is the quickest, most fuel efficient, and least stressful route that i've found.

If i have to go to the Mississauga location, i'm usually there before 8:30am at Highway 10/Lakeshore Rd.

[adam]

leave at 7:30 and it'll take twice as long

[Millstone]

Originally Posted by HackD

Easy, Don't take the Highway!

I commute from Greenhill St./Redhill Valley Expressway to Dorval/QEW in Oakville (ok, not quite Mississauga - though sometimes the commute is extended to Mississauga) daily, leaving at 7:00 in the morning to get to work by ~7:50 am. Very rarely am i late unless i am silly enough to take the highway - either coming to work or going home. QEW + North Shore Blvd off ramp + Lakeshore Rd is the quickest, most fuel efficient, and least stressful route that i've found.

If i have to go to the Mississauga location, i'm usually there before 8:30am at Highway 10/Lakeshore Rd.

So basically take Hwy 2. I'd think that's pretty hit or miss.

[Jon Dalton]

When I drove from stoney creek it was always a crap shoot as to what would be faster, lakeshore or the highway. I just wouldn't call it an easy commute if it's already at the point where people are using low capacity roads to bypass the congestion on high capacity roads. Reverse commuting into Toronto's sprawl is a sad reality for many of us (33% and growing) and I don't see the traffic situation getting any better. I hope this trend of GTA'ers moving here brings with it some entreprenurial types who get sick of commuting and set up their companies here.

[HackD]

Originally Posted by Jon Dalton

When I drove from stoney creek it was always a crap shoot as to what would be faster, lakeshore or the highway. I just wouldn't call it an easy commute if it's already at the point where people are using low capacity roads to bypass the congestion on high capacity roads. Reverse commuting into Toronto's sprawl is a sad reality for many of us (33% and growing) and I don't see the traffic situation getting any better. I hope this trend of GTA'ers moving here brings with it some entreprenurial types who get sick of commuting and set up their companies here.

All things equal to, say a person commuting from Oakville to East Brampton or into Toronto proper, i do consider it a relatively easy commute. On the other hand, before the move to Hamilton, my 17 year commute was a 5 minute drive, 15 minute bicycle ride, or 30 minute walk within Oakville. I was spoiled, but, I also had no hope of home ownership in Oakville. Or Mississauga, or Milton, etc.

60 km/h on the Lakeshore for 20 minutes is fine with me - as long as it's flowing - which it usually is, even with the construction on the Oakville/Burlington border.

Sadly, my occupation is very highly specialized - i can't relocate into a related field in Hamilton proper, without a couple years retraining. You do what you have to do.

[emge]

Originally Posted by HackD

You do what you have to do.

I think I've said this on a weekly basis since moving here, but it still beats living in the GTA

[oldcoote]

Originally Posted by Jon Dalton

I hope this trend of GTA'ers moving here brings with it some entreprenurial types who get sick of commuting and set up their companies here.

It's already happening with a number of small businesses. Myself included.

Need to encourage some larger companies to look past Burlington though. (cough*MAC*cough)

[adam]

Isn't it still cheaper for a company to set up shop in Burlington? For an office park its a no brainer. Hamilton needs to make itself attractive for businesses. Great opportunity with our current economic situation and companies struggling to make ends meet.

[oldcoote]

Originally Posted by adam

Isn't it still cheaper for a company to set up shop in Burlington?

Commercial taxes are better in Burlington than Hamilton.

[raisethehammer]

those office parks in burlington will fill up soon and hamiltons' urban core will become destination number 1.