The New Colorado Economy Thread

[blm3034L!fe]

Originally Posted by chinagaldenver

Thanks Franco. I plan to be an active forumer again. Just got caught up into working too much. I'm back

I thought you sounded familiar? Welcome back China Gal!!!

[chinagaldenver]

Thanks again It's good to be back. Do we have a gathering set up?

[blm3034L!fe]

Originally Posted by chinagaldenver

Thanks again It's good to be back. Do we have a gathering set up?

I think some of the guys are doing something here soon it's posted on one of the threads I'm sure the guys would be pleased be accompanied by ChinaGal!!!

[glowrock]

Yes, there's a forum meet planned for the Friday evening before Christmas... At least I believe that's when it's going to be!

More the merrier, I always say!

Aaron (Glowrock)

[pablosan]

Colo. apartment vacancies dip

Denver Business Journal

Population growth in Colorado caused apartments to continue filling up in the third quarter, according to the Colorado Department of Housing.

Colorado apartment vacancies declined in the third quarter compared to the same period of 2006, while average rents dropped a few dollars.

The report includes Colorado markets, except for metro Denver. The Denver area's apartment market, with a third-quarter average vacancy rate of 5 percent, was covered in a separate report.

The vacancy rates for apartments in the rest of Colorado dropped to 5.7 percent in the period, from 7.2 percent for the third quarter of 2006.

All areas west of the Front Range saw average apartment vacancies of less than five percent in the third quarter, compared to the same period a year earlier. Grand Junction's vacancies dropped to 1.8 percent on average from 2.8 percent; Glenwood Springs' stayed even at 2.4 percent; and Durango's inched up to 4.1 percent from 3 percent.

"When you talk about demand for apartments, it relates directly to population growth," said Kathi Williams, director of the Colorado Division of Housing. "For the past several years, we've been adding more supply than we've had demand for. Since we quit building multifamily product, we're beginning to absorb existing inventory."

Gordon Von Stroh, business professor at the University of Denver and author of the report, added that out-of-state baby boomers renting apartments in Colorado as second homes also has contributed significantly to absorption of apartment units.

"Parents from Kansas City, Omaha and elsewhere in the Midwest are coming to Denver to be with their children and grandchildren," Von Stroh said. "They're keeping their home in Omaha and renting an apartment here."

Average apartment rents statewide dipped to $821.41 in the third quarter from $824.54 for the same period of 2006. They increased, though, from $805.94 in the first quarter.

Median rent decreased to $781.13 from $788.02 a year earlier. It increased from $765.12 in this year's first quarter.

Median, or middle, rent is the rent midway between the highest and lowest. Real estate professionals consider it significant because it's not skewed by the highest and lowest rents.

[pablosan]

100,000 new to Colo. in '07 Rank of eighth- fastest-growing state maintained

By Burt Hubbard, Rocky Mountain News (Contact)
Thursday, December 27, 2007

Colorado added almost 100,000 people this year, maintaining its rank as the eighth- fastest-growing state in the U.S., according to a new U.S. Census Bureau report released Wednesday.

At that pace, the state should surpass the 5 million population mark sometime in early 2009.

The report estimated that Colorado's population grew by 95,267 people to reach 4,861,515. That's a gain of 2 percent in one year.

Seven other states, led by Nevada, grew at a faster pace, the report said. Colorado's neighbor to the north, Wyoming, also grew by 2 percent.

The growth was spurred by an influx of residents from other states. The Census Bureau estimated that Colorado had a net gain of 33,438 people from domestic migration. That was almost double the net gain from international migration, which totaled 18,381 people. In the middle part of the decade, international migration surpassed domestic migration.

The rest of the state's population growth came from natural increases in births over deaths.

Except for a brief hiatus in 2005, Colorado has ranked among the 10 fastest-growing states throughout the decade. Last year, it also ranked eighth with a 1.9 percent gain over the year before. As a result, Colorado's population has grown by more than half a million, 559,496 - a 13.5 percent hike - since 2000. That also ranks eighth nationally.



Growth this year

* 43,446: Natural growth (births minus deaths)

* 18,381: Net international migration

* 33,438: Net domestic migration

[Top Of The Park]

.....it would seem we are growing just the right amount. Not so much so that traffic and services are overwhelmed, yet having the strong population gain will increase our political power and national recognition.

I look forward to The City and County of Denver surpassing the 600,000 mark.

[FrancoRey]

Oh yeah?!? Well I'm looking forward to D-town getting to the glorious number of 666,667 people, 2/3 of a mil!!!

[pablosan]

I look forward to seeing if Denver can surpass the 650,000 mark.

[1Post2]

from Rob's website:

The Denver Regional Council of Governments (DRCOG) has released the latest population estimates for the Denver metropolitan area. As of January 1, 2007, the estimated population was 2,817,534. That's an increase of 368,347 since the 2000 Census. The population of the City of Denver was estimated at 592,052, an increase of 37,689 since 2000.

Extrapolating the same annual increases, Denver will break 600k sometime in 2009, and reach 2/3 of a million by 2020.

[soonermeteor]

The near 100K is a consistent increase since the dot com bust hurt our growth. We're nearly back to the 90's numbers after some years where we couldn't even gain 50K ( i think 02 or 03 was only around 47K).



It will be nice to break 5 mil by the 2010 census. Do you think we get another congressman?

The Denver Regional Council of Governments (DRCOG) has released the latest population estimates for the Denver metropolitan area. As of January 1, 2007, the estimated population was 2,817,534. That's an increase of 368,347 since the 2000 Census. The population of the City of Denver was estimated at 592,052, an increase of 37,689 since 2000.

I went to the DRCOG website and they had the new Jan 07 number for the "region" as 2777497. ( They had the Denver number at 592K on the same sheet)

It's also impressive to see Denver gaining some of the most people compared to the suburbs ( nearly 10K). The city only lost out to Aurora in people gain this past year, which isn't that bad considering the sprawling houses in some of the suburbs that Denver is not building.

[pablosan]

Wow, there is a very real posibility that Denver will have at least 600,000 by 2010. That's a far cry from the 80's when there were only 490,000 living in the city.

[Eliyah78]

I think the lowest modern number we hit was during the 1990 census when Denver was down to 462,000. I agree, with all the infill we'll be above the 600,000 mark soon.

[comoneymaker]

I would really like to see a demographic that shows how many people from what state move here. Its seems to me to be mostly Cali, Mass, Minn, NY and Fla

[FrancoRey]

Originally Posted by comoneymaker

I would really like to see a demographic that shows how many people from what state move here. Its seems to me to be mostly Cali, Mass, Minn, NY and Fla

I would like to see what countries as well. That article notes the high number of international immigrants. For example, in my parent's neighborhood in Highlands Ranch, we have Vietnamese neighbors next door, Italian neighbors across the way, and Russian and British neighbors down the street! I should call it Ellis Street .

I find there are a very large number of British and Russians that I know (and meet) who have come to CO to live here. It would be interesting to see those numbers.

[EngiNerd]

Don't forget that Mexico and Canada are also considered international. It might just be the more "PC" way of saying those coming in from south of the border without saying Mexico directly. I can't imagine immigrants from other countries besides Mexico make up that much of the population, but it still would be interesting to see that stat.

[denveraztec]

I use Key Bank in Glendale and the majority of the employees there are Russian and I cannot recall going into the bank and not hearing Russian spoken. Even the guy who cuts the limited hair I have is Russian, Simian at Floyd's is the best in town! It is predominantly a Jewish Russian community that has slowly been growing since the late 70s. Check out the web site like http://www.baraban.com/news/denver/
From that site, "The Russian-speaking community of the greater Denver area was almost non-existent in the early 1970's, quickly grew to over a thousand families by 1980 and remained at that level until the early 1990's. It has since mushroomed to almost fifty thousand people mostly due to new arrivals from the Former Soviet Union, but also thanks to interstate migration of Russian-speakers to this area especially from the coasts. Majority of the former "Russians" here are Jewish, with disproportionately many of the earlier arrivals hailing from Bobruisk, Belarus, while many of the latecomers are Bukharian Jews. The densest distribution of Russian-speakers in the Denver area, is probably still in Glendale and South East Denver, wedged between the Cherry Creek Mall, the Jewish Community Center, the newer and remodeled Russian Library and Club Valencia condominiums (popularly known as the Round House.) Squarely in the middle of it all is Oneida Square off Leetsdale, now commonly known as "The Russian Plaza", with most businesses owned and operated "by the Russians - for the Russians."

Additionally, I am seeing more Ethiopians in Denver and Aurora. They have a church at 6th and Pennsylvania in Governor’s Park and it seems to be growing. The owner of my dry cleaners is Ethiopian and loves it here. He said more Ethiopians move here because they are not as discriminated against as they are in other cities. He said Denverites are incredilby friendly compared to places in the south or northeastern U.S.

I think the diversity is great and welcome it!

[pablosan]

Its great to see Denver (and Colorado) becoming more diverse. I knew that Denver's Russian population was growing but I didn't realize that it was that significant. I think that many immigrants are discovering how beautiful of a city Denver is becoming, and how beautiful of a state Colorado has always been.

[Top Of The Park]

...I used to talk to some Ethiopian Cab drivers who worked for Metro Cab and there's a good Ethiopian restaurant at Colfax and around High. It is one of the places serving jerk chicken in town.

My son who is a manager at a Cricket store got to know some of the Russian mafia guys, who bought their phones from him...they wanted him to join as he is big like they are.

[CoVol]

Denver Pavilions shops for buyer

Denver Business Journal
by Noelle Leavitt and Paula Moore

The Denver Pavilions is for sale.

The 350,000 square feet of retail/entertainment tenant mix, located on two blocks of the 16th Street Mall, could have a new owner within 90 days, said Pavilions co-owner Bill Denton of Entertainment Development Group Inc. (EDG) in Los Angeles.

"It will be an institutional buyer," Denton said. "With the state of the U.S. dollar, it might be an overseas buyer."

Denton declined to reveal the sale price or who might buy the property.

"I'm going to let the marketplace determine the value," Denton said. "We expect the buyers will bid the price."

Arthur Hill & Co. of Chicago co-developed the property. Rosche Finanze and Hensel Phelps Construction Co. of Greeley are the equity partners.

The project cost $107 million to construct in 1997. It opened in November 1998.

If the property doesn't sell, Denton said there could be a shift in tenants. He declined to reveal which tenants might leave, arrive or change spaces.

"The ability for the Pavilions to thrive is important for downtown," said Nick LeMasters, general manager of the Cherry Creek Shopping Center. "I think it's a question of bringing tenants that resonate to the downtown customer, to the tourists and to the convention goers."

Denton is developing a similar outdoor retail/entertainment outlet in Houston called the Houston Pavilions, scheduled to open in October 2008.

There's been much contention surrounding the Pavilions property, which is between Welton and Tremont streets, since it opened in November 1998.

Project's mix was untested in Denver
The retail/entertainment tenant mix was an untested product type in metro Denver and was one of the first such urban shopping centers to be built in the country.

"First of all, it was very difficult to finance the project," Denton said.

The project's cost ballooned to $107 million from early estimates of $94 million.

In 1995, New York retail real estate investor The Yarmouth Group Inc. pulled its $90 million from the project, investing $120 million in local Miller-Anschutz Properties LLC's purchase of the Tabor Center office building instead.

Odyssey Partners LP, a New York-based investment partnership spun off from Oppenheimer & Co., and local Golden Triangle developer Bruce Berger also came and went as Pavilions investors.

Local retail real estate experts said only a few U.S. retail markets -- New York and San Francisco among them -- have enough retail clout to sustain a three-story shopping center; most shoppers can handle two levels, but not three.

In the 1990s, experts considered Lower Downtown Denver, rather than the southeastern part of downtown where the Pavilions is located, a better location for the mall.

The Denver Urban Renewal Authority (DURA) kicked in $24.4 million in tax-increment financing for the project, and waived its fee for assembling that money. But Susan Powers, who headed DURA at the time, said it's not a surprise the property is for sale.

"Every single mall that you can think of has turned over from the time that it's been in development," Powers said. "It's not at all untypical to have a center be developed and put on the market."

The Pavilions' $63 million construction loan came from three banks -- Bank One, Colorado N.A., Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce of Toronto -- and investment banker Societe Generale of France, according to an EDG report to the Urban Land Institute.

Denton raised $18.85 million in equity with Arthur Hill & Co. LLC of Illinois and Roche Finanz AG of Germany. The late Denver real estate developer W. Scott Moore, who formerly owned the land on which Pavilions sits, also was a partner in the project.

Difficulty finding capital translated to difficulty signing on some tenants.

Anchors NikeTown, Virgin Megastore, United Artists Theaters and Hard Rock Cafe were among the first occupants to sign on and still occupy space at the Pavilions.

Retail real estate brokers expect many anchor leases to expire in 2008.

Two of the mall's largest restaurants -- Wolfgang Puck Grand Cafe, with 10,000 square feet of space on the second floor, and Cafe Odyssey, with 18,000 square feet -- closed those locations. The Puck space, which shut down in 2005, hasn't been filled.

Located on the third floor, Cafe Odyssey wasn't the only restaurant/nightclub there to close. Others included Sevilla, Margarita Mama's/Banana Joe's and Lefty's Cabo Cantina.

Regardless, Denton is optimistic about the Pavilions future in Denver under new ownership.