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Originally Posted by 10023
Asia and Africa will never replace Europe and to say otherwise is Brexiteer nonsense. Geography matters.
London’s principal advantage as a city was being the English-speaking capital of Europe, and it’s no longer in Europe.
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I didn’t actually say that Asia and Africa would replace Europe, I said that Asia, the ME and Africa is driving growth. The stark reality is emerging markets offer incredible opportunities due to rapidly changing demographics and economies; their burgeoning middle classes have a demand for mature financial products that has limited supply, whilst corporates and institutions want access to global markets. London isn’t going to be alone in wanting a slice of that, but you are rather misguided in thinking that the conditions for the trade in services is similar to the trade in goods.
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Originally Posted by Crawford
Right, but London isn't in Europe anymore. That's the point. European command centers for finance, logistics, tech, etc. are on the Continent.
All of those assets are dependent on an extensive hinterland, which has vanished. London is no longer integrated with the Continent. The German psychometrics PhD who previously went to work in the City, will now work elsewhere.
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London is still in Europe; it just is no longer in the EU. However, lets deal with the facts: EU net migration to the UK has remained
positive every year following the referendum, i.e. more EU citizens are moving to the UK than leaving. EU net migration peaked in 2015, fell after the referendum but had begun to stabilise in 2018, for context the latest rate of EU net migration is equivalent to the levels seen in 2010. The German psychometrics PhD individual is most likely still relocating to work in the Square Mile, but less so for the Romanian rhubarb picker or Lithuanian truck driver, which is why there are now more than one million vacancies, the highest on record. Interestingly, just before Covid-19 struck, EU net migration had begun to grow again. I suspect in the post Covid-19 period we’ll see rates of EU net migration not only remain positive but grow further especially in the under-resourced logistics, construction and food sectors.
Of course, the EU is but one part of the migration story of London and the UK, and non-EU net migration has been growing at an unprecedented rate; total net migration to the UK just before Covid-19 was the third highest year on record. Had Covid-19 not materialised, 2020 could have been the biggest year for net migration.
Attempting to theorise whether London will have the diminished statute of Vienna in a century is like questioning whether New York will be habitable due to rising sea levels.
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Originally Posted by JMKeynes
Having enormous numbers of hyper-rich people benefits cities substantially. They donate vast money to the arts, which is why New York's museums, operas, ballets, orchestras, concert halls, etc. are vastly superior to those of other cities.
They also donate great parks and monuments (e.g., the new floating "Little Island," the Hudson Yards Vessel, etc.)
Further, they run corporations based in NY, which, in turn, leads to the development of iconic towers. There's a reason why buildings like the Grand Hyatt, the new JPMC HQ, 1 Vandy, etc. are being built in NY and not elsewhere.
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I can’t tell whether you have posted this without having a sense of humour. I won’t get into a protracted debate about the quantity and/or quality of various cultural institutions and civil amenities, but two points to raise, firstly cities/countries don’t have monopolies on (U)HNWI philanthropy, and secondly (local and national) governments have far broader shoulders when it comes to supporting cultural institutions and civil amenities.
If (U)HNWI’s were so important, why are London’s major museums free, and New York’s not? Why is crime and deprivation worse in New York than in London (3x the murder rate)? Why is London’s transport system more modern, expanding and improving at a greater rate compared to New York’s? Why does London have more open green space than New York? You don’t get the Scandinavians with their far higher quality of living pleading for (U)HNWI’s.