PHILADELPHIA | The Harper | 272 FT | 24 FLOORS

[iheartphilly]

^
Thanks, JS...you are the best!

[jsbrook]

Originally Posted by iheartphilly

^
Thanks, JS...you are the best!

[Jawnadelphia]

Looks like the Philly luxury apt market is still hot, Pearl Properties IG page:


https://www.instagram.com/p/ByJA8zAjgk-/

[jsbrook]

Originally Posted by Jawnadelphia

Looks like the Philly luxury apt market is still hot, Pearl Properties IG page:


https://www.instagram.com/p/ByJA8zAjgk-/

100% at opening? Wow, that is shocking. That must be a first. I guess there has never been a rental product quite like this in the Philly market. I'm curious to see how the Atlantic Building does now.

[Knight Hospitaller]

I never got where they decided to downsize this. Given the location I’m sure they could’ve sold as many units as they wanted.

[jsbrook]

Originally Posted by Knight Hospitaller

I never got where they decided to downsize this. Given the location I’m sure they could’ve sold as many units as they wanted.

Rented...and maybe so. Though I'm not sure how clear that was when the project was first envisioned. Also, we'll eventually reach a saturation point as to this type of rental. How well the Atlantic Building and eventually the Laurel lease out will be telling. Hopefully the demand for those is strong too.

[Redddog]

Originally Posted by jsbrook

Rented...and maybe so. Though I'm not sure how clear that was when the project was first envisioned. Also, we'll eventually reach a saturation point as to this type of rental. How well the Atlantic Building and eventually the Laurel lease out will be telling. Hopefully the demand for those is strong too.

The Laurel is gonna go fast I bet.

Aren't they already like 50-60% committed? They haven't even begun to dig.

[jsbrook]

Originally Posted by Redddog

The Laurel is gonna go fast I bet.

Aren't they already like 50-60% committed? They haven't even begun to dig.

I haven't heard anything about the commitments for the rental portion there, only the condos. You could be right, but I find that hard to believe this far out, and I haven't heard it. People don't/can't usually make a rental commitment 2+ years out. By the way, they have now started to dig! See my update photo in The Laurel thread.

[Redddog]

Originally Posted by jsbrook

I haven't heard anything about the commitments for the rental portion there, only the condos. You could be right, but I find that hard to believe this far out, and I haven't heard it. People don't/can't usually make a rental commitment 2+ years out. By the way, they have now started to dig! See my update photo in The Laurel thread.

Just saw that....haha

[Knight Hospitaller]

I stand corrected on rentals vs. sales. My bad. I did mean rentals.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by Knight Hospitaller

I never got where they decided to downsize this. Given the location I’m sure they could’ve sold as many units as they wanted.

Ditto.

According to a friend that is in commercial real estate (and an investor in Philly)...the supply glut of luxury product that was feared never came to fruition. Apparently, it's been almost entirely absorbed.

I think there are a handful of notable exceptions (the remnants of the Piazza), but otherwise I think things are chugging along pretty much at full steam.

Good to see.

Further, I find it hard to believe Philly is growing at only 4,000-6,000 residents per year given all of this product and new construction, particularly in the ring neighborhoods, seemingly being gobbled up.

If we're not over 1.6MM in the next census, I'll be shocked and a bit disappointed.

[PurpleWhiteOut]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

Ditto.

According to a friend that is in commercial real estate (and an investor in Philly)...the supply glut of luxury product that was feared never came to fruition. Apparently, it's been almost entirely absorbed.

I think there are a handful of notable exceptions (the remnants of the Piazza), but otherwise I think things are chugging along pretty much at full steam.

Good to see.

Further, I find it hard to believe Philly is growing at only 4,000-6,000 residents per year given all of this product and new construction, particularly in the ring neighborhoods, seemingly being gobbled up.

If we're not over 1.6MM in the next census, I'll be shocked and a bit disappointed.

Yeah agreed, especially because the inventory in ring neighborhoods is super low because they get snatched up before the low rises are even built. On the other hand I can see the number being low because from what I understand the north east has seeing a large flight, so the inner city might be absorbing while the farther neighborhoods are declining, but the working age young population is definitely increasing, if not the raw number.

I think urban philly is growing quickly but suburban philly is declining because people dont want to take over areas with philly taxes without urban convenience. Unfortunately that would offset the numbers but less visibly for people like us focused on CC.

It's easy to imagine a project of 100 units getting filled, but people are just as easily white-flighting a hundred houses in the far north east or north west for a close suburb.

[jsbrook]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

Ditto.

According to a friend that is in commercial real estate (and an investor in Philly)...the supply glut of luxury product that was feared never came to fruition. Apparently, it's been almost entirely absorbed.

I think there are a handful of notable exceptions (the remnants of the Piazza), but otherwise I think things are chugging along pretty much at full steam.

Good to see.

Further, I find it hard to believe Philly is growing at only 4,000-6,000 residents per year given all of this product and new construction, particularly in the ring neighborhoods, seemingly being gobbled up.

If we're not over 1.6MM in the next census, I'll be shocked and a bit disappointed.

Population growth is stifled because the neighborhoods outside the core and near core are shrinking. Greater Center City is definitely growing at a nice clip. As far as real luxury rentals, we've had very little (and the Piazza doesn't qualify). The Harper, Laurel, and Atlantic Building are and will be pumping out high end rentals in numbers far greater than we've ever seen. The Laurel and Tower Formerly Known as SLS will be doing the same as to condos. I'm hopeful we have the demand to absorb it, but we'll have to see.

Despite the Harper's great apartment lease out, I'm more bullish on the condo market. It's not really THAT many condos that will need to be absorbed. It is quite a lot of pretty pricey rentals.

[Inquizative]

"Population growth is stifled because the neighborhoods outside the core and near core are shrinking."

Is that your opinion, or did you get that from a official capacity?
From what I'm reading and personally observing is that it appears Philly is pushing 1.6 million at a steady pace.

"The city's (Philadelphia) population has been growing for seven years straight, and it's now the second-fastest growing county in the region."
-World Population Review 2019

[Inquizative]

"Population growth is stifled because the neighborhoods outside the core and near core are shrinking."

Is that your opinion, or did you get that from a official capacity?
From what I'm reading and personally observing is that it appears Philly is pushing 1.6 million at a steady pace.

"The city's (Philadelphia) population has been growing for seven years straight, and it's now the second-fastest growing county in the region."
-World Population Review 2019

[PurpleWhiteOut]

Originally Posted by Inquizative

"Population growth is stifled because the neighborhoods outside the core and near core are shrinking."

Is that your opinion, or did you get that from a official capacity?
From what I'm reading and personally observing is that it appears Philly is pushing 1.6 million at a steady pace.

"The city's (Philadelphia) population has been growing for seven years straight, and it's now the second-fastest growing county in the region."
-World Population Review 2019

It is backed up, unfortunately. https://nextcity.org/features/view/p...mapping-growth This report is 5 years old, so I would love to see an update, which 2020 will definitely give us. At the bottom is a list by neighborhood. I believe these changes are over 5 years. 24 neighborhoods had a negative population change, with Holmsberg at the highest with -21.9%. The population as a whole is increasing, but if these losses weren't happening, the increases would be MUCH higher. Unfortunetely, it's like center city has an IV infusion but the peripheral neghborhoods are still bleeding out. Where we see a single high rise filling up it's easy to imagine just as many people leaving from single family homes. Center city is rising really quickly and concentratedly, but there is a slow loss over a large area simultaneously.

[jsbrook]

Originally Posted by Inquizative

"Population growth is stifled because the neighborhoods outside the core and near core are shrinking."

Is that your opinion, or did you get that from a official capacity?
From what I'm reading and personally observing is that it appears Philly is pushing 1.6 million at a steady pace.

"The city's (Philadelphia) population has been growing for seven years straight, and it's now the second-fastest growing county in the region."
-World Population Review 2019

Not at all inconsistent with what I said. And no, it's not an opinion. The city is slowly and steadily growing as a whole. Some Center City neighborhoods are seeing much stronger growth. But recent census estimates and lots of articles say outer neighborhoods are shrinking and population declining. As a whole, it works out to net growth for the city, but some neighborhoods are shrinking. Will look for article to post. Here is one: https://www.inquirer.com/philly/news...0180322.html-2 There was a detailed article not very long ago, though, that showed population change estimates by neighborhood. I'll try to find it when I have more time.

[jsbrook]

Originally Posted by PurpleWhiteOut

It is backed up, unfortunately. https://nextcity.org/features/view/p...mapping-growth This report is 5 years old, so I would love to see an update, which 2020 will definitely give us. At the bottom is a list by neighborhood. I believe these changes are over 5 years. 24 neighborhoods had a negative population change, with Holmsberg at the highest with -21.9%. The population as a whole is increasing, but if these losses weren't happening, the increases would be MUCH higher. Unfortunetely, it's like center city has an IV infusion but the peripheral neghborhoods are still bleeding out. Where we see a single high rise filling up it's easy to imagine just as many people leaving from single family homes. Center city is rising really quickly and concentratedly, but there is a slow loss over a large area simultaneously.

This one that you linked may be the one I was thinking of. I thought there was an update, though. I hope they do update again with data through 2020, regardless. This was a good piece.

[cardeza]

Originally Posted by jsbrook

Not at all inconsistent with what I said. And no, it's not an opinion. The city is slowly and steadily growing as a whole. Some Center City neighborhoods are seeing much stronger growth. But recent census estimates and lots of articles say outer neighborhoods are shrinking and population declining. As a whole, it works out to net growth for the city, but some neighborhoods are shrinking. Will look for article to post. Here is one: https://www.inquirer.com/philly/news...0180322.html-2 There was a detailed article not very long ago, though, that showed population change estimates by neighborhood. I'll try to find it when I have more time.

some are, some are not. The parts of NE philly that attract a lot of immigrants continue to grow. The outlying areas near the city's NW and NE borders are generally stagnant or slightly declining. But it's nothing like the massive hemorraging that took place from the rowhouse neighborhoods from the 70s through 90s.

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by cardeza

some are, some are not. The parts of NE philly that attract a lot of immigrants continue to grow. The outlying areas near the city's NW and NE borders are generally stagnant or slightly declining. But it's nothing like the massive hemorraging that took place from the rowhouse neighborhoods from the 70s through 90s.

Which part of the NW border are you referring to? Very little in the NW on the above linked articles show decline and some Manayunk (which I believe is finally starting to grow up a bit) and Mount Airy appear to be gaining population and improving. Chestnut Hill is starting to fix it's stretch of Germantown Ave to be more than just banks and Germantown is getting a lot of hype around development. I'd be surprised if this chunk of the city overall is stagnate or in decline. It's not University City or Greater Center City, but there is a decent amount of energy out there.